Conley Trade

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Ha, c'mon Cam, that's a terrible, click bait article. Dlo wasn't coming back next season, and TC got a terrific return on that expiring contract. I still love Dlo as a player and wish him well... but there's just no denying it was good value.

The article is obviously intended to gain fan engagement, as most online outlets are, but the assessment was entirely reasonable if you took the time to read it. Perhaps you could explain to me why you think it's terrible. We will also have to agree to disagree on what a "terrific" return actually is.

There's just no denying it was good value... on this forum.

[60WinTim]

What that article gets wrong, and what you get wrong, Cam, was insisting that acquire Conley is merely doubling down on the Gobert trade. While that is an added benefit, it certainly seems to me, and everything the organization has said, the primary reason for the trade is to help nurture our budding young stars. There are numerous secondary benefits, including the Gobert connection, along with the salary slot, and who is the better fit with the team, especially when KAT returns, for this season and next. The second rounders are a benefit, and they said up front that NAW was more than a throw in, which we see panning out thus far.

I think that is a fair assessment of the trade, and certainly what the organization has presented. Your argument is basically "that's what they have to say". And articles like the one you found are far less informed about the nuances of the trade than you are.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Respectfully, you're defending the reasoning for the deal. There could be any number of reasons the trade was made: maintaining the sacred salary slot, future luxury tax concerns, the draft capital (second-round picks are easily acquired), the supposed better team fit, the chemistry with Rudy Gobert, the mentorship angle, etc. Pick your poison. We could debate all of it, and we have at various times, but none of that matters much in judging or grading a trade in a results-based league. It only explains why a team did what they did.

There were good reasons for the Rudy Gobert trade. We could all understand what they were trying to accomplish. Nevertheless, we can appropriately consider that a bad deal to this point, and probably moving forward because the results haven't been great. The production doesn't meet or exceed what was traded away.

Similarly, the results one month into the Mike Conley Jr. era haven't been good either, which is what that article explained. It relates to what I have articulated at various times as well. The Timberwolves are playing at a noticeably worse level offensively and defensively, and therefore overall, than they were prior to making the trade. It's absolutely fair to grade that trade poorly to this point considering all things point towards the on-court product performing below what it was.

That doesn't mean things can't or won't change. It's possible that Karl-Anthony Towns returns to elite form and the team gels immediately. Perhaps he's the missing piece. Perhaps Minnesota reels off an impressive stretch of games to close the regular season, and launches them into the postseason in tremendous rhythm... But that hasn't happened yet and we can only judge off of what we've seen so far.

[Sundog]

Again, c'mon, Cam... it's not Conley, it's not the salary slot, it's not draft capital, it's not NAW. It's all of that! For an expiring contract of a good, but flawed player that wasn't going to be a Wolf in two dozen games. That's amazing value, undeniably.

[KiwiMatt]

I wonder if the Grizzlies would be interested in a Conley for Tyus Jones swap this offseason? It would be a nostalgic reunion for Conley going back to the Grizzlies for his likely final year and Ja Morant could certainly do with some 'guidance' and 'mentorship' which Conley would be perfect for.

Tyus Jones would become our starting PG where he has excelled with the Grizzlies.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Again, c'mon, Cam... it's not Conley, it's not the salary slot, it's not draft capital, it's not NAW. It's all of that! For an expiring contract of a good, but flawed player that wasn't going to be a Wolf in two dozen games. That's amazing value, undeniably.

Come on, Sundog. Again, come on. I need more than repetitive claims of "amazing value" that have little supporting elements. Are the Timberwolves performing better now than they were prior to making the trade? Did Minnesota acquire assets that are valuable enough to make up for what they lost in their on-court product? Did they raise their ceiling for this season or in the future? That's how we typically grade trades. The early returns are a resounding no.

Again, things can change over time, and perhaps Karl-Anthony Towns saves the day, but give me more than the "undeniably amazing value" bit. It's currently very deniable unless you can explain your position better. What makes it amazing? The 35-year old stopgap point guard? The impending free agent wing (who I do actually like)? The second-round picks? The cumulative return doesn't measure up in my view and the results to this point support that.

[Sundog]

Ha... well, I forgot the old adage "Never wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and the pig likes it." You do you, Cam.

[60WinTim]

Well, we were basically a .500 team with KAT. We were a .500 team without KAT BC. And we have been a .500 team AD (I really like that timeline, FNG!). I don't see a "resounding no" regarding the trade as far as results go. And I suspect we will see the wins go up before KAT returns. I'll be sure to let you know if that happens.... ;-)

[Carlos Danger]

There's lots of ways to measure the trade. It's all very early. But since we keep going that direction, I'll throw in my methods:

1. VORP (Post Trade)
[table]
[tr]
[th]Player[/th]
[th]VORP[/th]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]DLO[/td]
[td]0.1[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Conley[/td]
[td]0.1[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

2. Win Shares Per 48 DLO with Wolves vs. Conley with Wolves
[table]
[tr]
[th]Player[/th]
[th]WS/48[/th]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]DLO[/td]
[td].104[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Conley[/td]
[td].103[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

3. Actual Record with/without DLO this year
[table]
[tr]
[th]Period[/th]
[th]Wins[/th]
[th]Losses[/th]
[th]PCT[/th]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]With DLO[/td]
[td]27[/td]
[td]27[/td]
[td].500[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Without DLO[/td]
[td]7[/td]
[td]6[/td]
[td].539[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

I'm not seeing any big difference with DLO. In fact, I think a strong case can be made we are better based on record alone (if we insist on using small samples). Guys who look at +/- and On/Off might see a positive in addition by subtraction of DLO as well. DLO just wasn't a difference maker on this team.

Add in the fact that we literally gave up 2 months of DLO for:
* Conley (this year and next)
* NAW (this year plus rights)
* Three 2nd round picks

I'm seeing it as a good trade for the Wolves.

[FNG]

I'm not seeing any big difference with DLO. In fact, I think a strong case can be made we are better based on record alone (if we insist on using small samples). Guys who look at +/- and On/Off might see a positive in addition by subtraction of DLO as well. DLO just wasn't a difference maker on this team.

Add in the fact that we literally gave up 2 months of DLO for:
* Conley (this year and next)
* NAW (this year plus rights)
* Three 2nd round picks

I'm seeing it as a good trade for the Wolves.