Rudy Gobert to the Timberwolves

[Lipoli390]

Here's an excerpt from a recent article on the Gobert trade:

The return the Jazz got for Gobert has been well-documented. Utah received Malik Beasley, Patrick Beverley, Walker Kessler, Jarred Vanderbilt, Leandro Bolmaro, plus unprotected first-round picks in 2023, 2025, 2027, a pick swap in 2026 and a top-five protected pick in 2029.

That many assets, including playoff rotation players (Beasley and Beverley) developmental prospects (Vanderbilt, Bomaro and Kessler) plus a wealth of draft equity, was just too much for the Jazz to say no to.

"There are very few players in the NBA that do the things that Rudy does," Zanik said. "Minnesota evaluated their own roster and made their decisions that he would accomplish a lot of the things that they were trying to get done as they try to move forward.

"It is not like Rudy's grow on trees, and I don't want to speak for (Minnesota), but they were obviously very, very aggressive in trying to add Rudy to their team.

I thought the bolded portion of the comment by Utah's GM, Justin Zanik, was telling. He referred to the Wolves as "very, very aggressive" in their pursuit of Gobert. I don't think there was another team in the League willing to offer anything close to what the Wolves offered for Gobert. Again, I think the Wolves front office and ownership got caught up in group think and became overly focused on getting Gobert to the point where they offered too much. My test is this: If the Wolves suddenly decided to trade Gobert right now is there another team in the League what would offer the equivalent of what the Wolves just gave Utah? I say no. In fact, the Wolves have apparently raised the bar so high that the Nets can't find a suitor for Durant.

It's not just the fact the Wolves traded 4 of their next 7 1st round picks with no protection other than minimal protection on the 2029 pick. Beasley and Beverley have significant value. Beasley as a 25 year old elite 3-point shooter who is also athletic and an very good rebounder at his position. Beverley is a two-way guard who defends, hits threes and handles the ball. He can play both guard spots. He's a great defender who brings moxie and playoff experience. In addition to all that, Vando, Kessler and Bolmaro are all talented young players.

As I've already acknowledged, this deal might pan out for the Wolves in the near term. But I still believe it was the wrong deal at the wrong time. It's the sort of deal you don't even consider doing unless you're stuck in the mud going nowhere with your window of opportunity close to closing. It's what the Celtics did to get the then 31-year old KG when their one star, Paul Pierce, was 30 and they had to do something big. The Wolves are in a much different place than the Celtics were then. The Wolves were on the rise before this deal. They were building around a 20 year old Edwards as their best talent, a 21 year old McDaniels as a high-upside prospect and a 26 year old KAT who was about to commit to anothe r6 years with the Wolves. The team had lots of trade options to further improve the team short of mortgaging the future - including a trade a high-end defensive big like Myles Turner or Capela. The Wolves also had a lot of potential financial flexibility next summer as well.

In my view the Wolves gave up too much and did so unnecessarily given where this team was at. I hope I'm wrong and the deal turns into a 4-year run of title contention with one or two NBA championships. Tim will tell.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

The Wolves were on the rise before this deal. They were building around a 20 year old Edwards as their best talent, a 21 year old McDaniels as a high-upside prospect and a 26 year old KAT who was about to commit to another 6 years with the Wolves. The team had lots of trade options to further improve the team short of mortgaging the future - including a trade a high-end defensive big like Myles Turner or Capela. The Wolves also had a lot of potential financial flexibility next summer as well.

I thoroughly understand your stance and agree with some of it, as you well know, but the one push back here is that nothing has changed in regards to the bolded statements.

Minnesota is still on the rise. They're still building around Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns, as well as Jaden McDaniels and Jaylen Nowell. They retained ALL of their top young talent in a deal for an All-NBA player, which is far from the norm in recent history, especially in comparison to the deals made for James Harden and Anthony Davis.

I personally think the perception of this trade would be much different and more positive had it been McDaniels and two future firsts instead of the four future firsts it ended up being. That much future draft capital is tough to give up. We'll have to see how Tim Connelly's gamble on McDaniels/Nowell pays off, but I can understand his thought process. The Timberwolves now have a championship window while Towns is in his prime and kept enough assets to try and extend it into Edwards' prime. Player development and creative talent acquisition will wind up being even more important going forward.

Like I've said, I wouldn't have the made the same trade Connelly did, but I do think Minnesota got much, much better and planted themselves in the mix for a championship over the next several years. Besides Kevin Durant, there wasn't another player rumored to be available that would have made me feel the same way had they been acquired instead.

[Coolbreeze44]

Championship windows for small market teams tend to be shorter unless you're the Spurs. A Giannis wouldn't typically commit to a small market and remain their for 10 years. So these franchises need to strike while the iron is hot. The best bet is to have a peak period of 4-5 years, followed by a rebuilding phase that takes just as long. And then hopefully you can make a run at contention again. Wolves fans shouldn't look at the team in terms of a 10-year run, it just isn't realistic. I think TC is smart to give us this window of contention. Let's enjoy it and see how far we can go, because we will probably have to tear it down in 5 years and start over. It's kind of like what happens with small market MLB teams. They acquire a bunch of prospects who arrive in the majors at relatively the same time. They typically enjoy a short run of success before the big markets come in and trade prospects for the developed players. And then the cycle starts all over again.

So I'm looking forward to the next 4-5 years. It should be a lot of fun being a Wolves fan. When it comes time to rebuild again, I can enjoy that too as long as I know the front office will take their shot when the team is ready. Too often in the past the Wolves have planned with a very long term approach. And it's just really hard for non-destination markets to succeed in that mode.

[Monster]

We will see if Beasley actually has value or not as I would not be surprised to see Utah move him. I have already doubted he had much value. For instance the Wolves signed Bryn Forbes to a Vet min deal to do basically the same thing Beasley does at better percentage but lower volume and also for a smaller role. The Kings signed Malik Monk to a cheaper contract than Beasley and he has more ability to create his own shot. GS took a cheap chance on a more versatile player in Dvincenzo. Could the Wolves have used Beasley to add a rotation level big to the roster? Sure I think so. How much would that rotation player have value to the roster compared to other options including even a vet min guy? Not sure. I got my hopes up to some extent for something in a deal for him...but I'm not sure there were deals for him. For example the Kings already added their shooting.

This trade in some ways has still yet to be determined what the Wolves get back. It's kinda like in baseball when teams get "player to be determined". The Wolves opened up 4 roster spots with this trade. They already filled one with Forbes. Let's see what the Wolves do with 2 (probably leave a spot open) of the remaining roster spots for this year. It's possible they get another 2 players that replace a lot of the value that the players they gave up in the deal.

[Sundog]

Championship windows for small market teams tend to be shorter unless you're the Spurs. A Giannis wouldn't typically commit to a small market and remain their for 10 years. So these franchises need to strike while the iron is hot. The best bet is to have a peak period of 4-5 years, followed by a rebuilding phase that takes just as long. And then hopefully you can make a run at contention again. Wolves fans shouldn't look at the team in terms of a 10-year run, it just isn't realistic. I think TC is smart to give us this window of contention. Let's enjoy it and see how far we can go, because we will probably have to tear it down in 5 years and start over. It's kind of like what happens with small market MLB teams. They acquire a bunch of prospects who arrive in the majors at relatively the same time. They typically enjoy a short run of success before the big markets come in and trade prospects for the developed players. And then the cycle starts all over again.

So I'm looking forward to the next 4-5 years. It should be a lot of fun being a Wolves fan. When it comes time to rebuild again, I can enjoy that too as long as I know the front office will take their shot when the team is ready. Too often in the past the Wolves have planned with a very long term approach. And it's just really hard for non-destination markets to succeed in that mode.

This a great take, Cool

[Sundog]

I hope I'm wrong and the deal turns into a 4-year run of title contention with one or two NBA championships. Tim will tell.

Ha, I hope you're wrong too, Lip, and Tim will indeed tell! But I think you summarized the downside risk of the deal well.

[Lipoli390]

The Wolves were on the rise before this deal. They were building around a 20 year old Edwards as their best talent, a 21 year old McDaniels as a high-upside prospect and a 26 year old KAT who was about to commit to another 6 years with the Wolves. The team had lots of trade options to further improve the team short of mortgaging the future - including a trade a high-end defensive big like Myles Turner or Capela. The Wolves also had a lot of potential financial flexibility next summer as well.

I thoroughly understand your stance and agree with some of it, as you well know, but the one push back here is that nothing has changed in regards to the bolded statements.

Minnesota is still on the rise. They're still building around Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns, as well as Jaden McDaniels and Jaylen Nowell. They retained ALL of their top young talent in a deal for an All-NBA player, which is far from the norm in recent history, especially in comparison to the deals made for James Harden and Anthony Davis.

I personally think the perception of this trade would be much different and more positive had it been McDaniels and two future firsts instead of the four future firsts it ended up being. That much future draft capital is tough to give up. We'll have to see how Tim Connelly's gamble on McDaniels/Nowell pays off, but I can understand his thought process. The Timberwolves now have a championship window while Towns is in his prime and kept enough assets to try and extend it into Edwards' prime. Player development and creative talent acquisition will wind up being even more important going forward.

Like I've said, I wouldn't have the made the same trade Connelly did, but I do think Minnesota got much, much better and planted themselves in the mix for a championship over the next several years. Besides Kevin Durant, there wasn't another player rumored to be available that would have made me feel the same way had they been acquired instead.

I think that's a good analysis, Cam. And although I really like McDaniels, I think you're right that the Wolves' end of the deal would have been perceived far more favorably if it had been McDaniels and two future picks rather than four picks. But like you, I can see Connelly's thought process in keeping McDaniels as part of a win-now or won-soon core with Gobert, Towns, Edwards and DLO.

[Monster]

Championship windows for small market teams tend to be shorter unless you're the Spurs. A Giannis wouldn't typically commit to a small market and remain their for 10 years. So these franchises need to strike while the iron is hot. The best bet is to have a peak period of 4-5 years, followed by a rebuilding phase that takes just as long. And then hopefully you can make a run at contention again. Wolves fans shouldn't look at the team in terms of a 10-year run, it just isn't realistic. I think TC is smart to give us this window of contention. Let's enjoy it and see how far we can go, because we will probably have to tear it down in 5 years and start over. It's kind of like what happens with small market MLB teams. They acquire a bunch of prospects who arrive in the majors at relatively the same time. They typically enjoy a short run of success before the big markets come in and trade prospects for the developed players. And then the cycle starts all over again.

So I'm looking forward to the next 4-5 years. It should be a lot of fun being a Wolves fan. When it comes time to rebuild again, I can enjoy that too as long as I know the front office will take their shot when the team is ready. Too often in the past the Wolves have planned with a very long term approach. And it's just really hard for non-destination markets to succeed in that mode.

This a great take, Cool

As much as I tend to say blah blah blah when it comes to the small market teams etc stuff I think Cool makes a very good point. I tend to think Towns was gonna stay here for a while even if we don't do this trade and Edwards seems like a guy that would stick around too but you never know. Durant and Dwight Howard used to be a couple of the most likable guys in the game.

What has been reported is part of this trade is because the Wolves wanted to be competitive now and being a really good team instead of waiting for the environment and Edwards to grow into it. Even if Gobert just expires and they move on from him this team could theoretically still have Edwards Towns, McDaniels and whoever else might emerge. Just those 3 guys if they want to stay COULD (mostly McDaniels is the question mark) be a pretty solid base to build around and if they really want to reconfigure around Edwards and younger players Towns will likely still have some value at that point. He might have more value to just keep instead of trade but that will be fine.

The Wolves can still be on a good sort of small market build after Gobert leaves...if he does. It's also possible the guy plays well into his late 30's. It not like that hasn't happened before. I'm not planning for that but it's a possible outcome and Gobert obviously would likely be signed to a lesser percentage of the cap if they did decide to keep him if he was still effective. There is possible path where Gobert is here longer than 4 years which could add to the value of making this deal. That's a bonus if it happens but its worth giving a few seconds of consideration.

[Phenom]

Anyone else think the Suns would have jumped in on Gobert right about now? I do and I think the Suns and Jazz could both be convinced that the same or similar pick package would have been beneficial. The Suns no doubt want to maximize their window with Chris Paul and that combo would be killer. The Jazz would look at the the age of Paul and probably like their chances better with those later picks. I'm glad the Wolves went out and got their man.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Apparently, Jon Krawczynski is putting out an interview article with D'Angelo Russell soon? The chatter was that Russell is excited about the Rudy Gobert trade and how they can help each other offensively and defensively. I only overheard some things so I'm not sure how true that is, but those of us with subscriptions to The Athletic should keep an eye out for it. If nothing else, I think it would be a fun read.