Rudy Gobert to the Timberwolves

[JasonIsDaMan [enjin:7981157]]

On the flipside, think to KGs tenure here. 8 straight first round playoff exits. Everytime someone like Gary Payton or Allen Iverson became available the Wolves came up short or got cold feet. They went all in once and really it was lightning in a bottle with Sam Cassell having his best year at the right time. That time period is known in basketball history for wasting away Garnett's career.

This deal sets to elevate Town's prime years and maximize Ant's upside years, not sit back and hope that someone will eventually come along. We could be waiting another 4 years to get another premier player for Towns and then he will be 30. If this ultimately doesn't work the team can conceivably get 2 more bites at the Ant prime apple. Why wait? Let's go!

Loved the topic, went downhill from there.
1. "Came up short on Gary Payton"? Very true, but not for the reason you think. GP was traded for former Timberwolf Ray Allen, so yeah, Allen for Payton definitely could have happened. And not for nothing, but Maybe Lurch takes the draft slash his job a little more seriously.
2. I remember the Iverson thing being for very specific guy(s) that Larry Brown wanted. If you have evidence that LB wanted a Wolf or Wolves that weren't KG, I would love to see it.
3. Cassell wasn't "all in". It was basically Joe Smith. No Firsts.
4. "Hope"? How about they do their job and draft "someone"? Like that time Utah drafted Gobert.
5. So why is it that KAT being 30 is so not-great but it's fine with RG?

[JasonIsDaMan [enjin:7981157]]

I really think people are underestimating Rudys skill set and impact on winning. The guys a DPOY and an All Star the last few years. The Wolves could have 3 All Stars next year and 3 players in the top 25 of the entire NBA. You've got both the best offensive big (arguable with Jokic sure) and best defensive big in the NBA (no question). Then you have Ant who as a big guard has the highest upside of any young player in the NBA.

You gave up some role players and some likely late round picks to become a NBA title contender. It's a no brainer. How many teams have 3 legit current All Stars on them? (Ant will be one this year you can count on that)

Then look at the analytics. The guy is a monster. 3rd in win shares last season per 48. 1st I believe I heard in eFG against. 1st in Rebound % at 25%, 1st in TS% at 73%, blocks, contested shots. Everything we need. WE COMIN BABY!!!

All I've ever wanted was a shot to win it all ever since KG left. This is the 1st time I've felt we have a chance. You got to embrace the chance to win.

Yes, terrific regular season, not great post-season, turned 30, and makes A TON of money. And I really wish you would quit saying "late round picks", because as bad as you are at evaluating ANYTHING else, I'm afraid they'll all be #1.

[Q-is-here]

I guess we knew Lore was a "go big or go home" kind of guy, and he certainly went big. The national pundits are largely panning the deal for the Wolves (I see a lot of A grades for Utah, and C's and D's for us), and I haven't fully analyzed it yet. But it's hard for me to rip a deal that instantly makes us a top 4 seed...and in the conversation for a championship. We will be starting one of the longest front lines in the history of the NBA, with two of them elite defenders and one an improving defender. It's difficult to not get excited about this deal. I hate to lose PatBev and Vando, but I wasn't that excited about Kessler and at least the first three lost picks should be in the mid to late 20s...not a big deal. Plus, we have instantly become an attractive destination for a vet guard who wants to win a championship (haven't thought of names yet). What veteran guard who wants to win wouldn't want to join a team with Gobert, KAT and Ant in the starting lineup?

My biggest concern about this team is whether DLo is going to stay, and if so, is he going to fizzle in the playoffs again. Obviously I would have preferred to see him go out and Conley come in, but I'm guessing Utah wasn't too enamored of Russell. The stats may say differently, but DLo looked best on defense last year when he had PatBev next to him allowing him to play free safety. My concern is we are going to see the DLo defense of old, and that will be a big roadblock to the kind of success this roster can have...elite rim protectors' value is limited if you have a guy opposing teams can target to get wide open threes. Maybe TC still has a way to move him and bring in a defensive-minded pass-first guard...if so, this team could make it to the finals. If not, we're going to have to cheer for Russell, and hope Finchie doesn't have to sub J-Mac in for him in the playoffs again.

In any event, this is going to be fun...

Wow
1. This is to everybody: NOTHING SAYS THOSE PICK HAVE TO BE IN THE TWENTIES! Maybe they disappoint, maybe a couple of key guys get injured. Ask '97 San Antonio, or recent era GSW.
2. My biggest concern about DLO is that he is not great at breaking down his guy, so RG's guy doesn't need to go stop ball, so there's no lob, and RG is not great a creating his own shot.
3. If J-Mac is getting more than 6 minutes a game for you in the playoffs, they'll be mercifully short.

Jason, you actually make some good points at times, but if you want people to read them, you might want to consider presenting them a bit differently. Just a constructive suggestion.

Ooh, this should be fun! How many abbreviations, acronyms, and 90s references should we expect? Over/Under anyone. Anyone?

[D-Mac [enjin:19736340]]

I think Gobert is our best player now. I saw ESPN had him at 26 and KAT at 25 last year but I honestly think Gobert is undervalued because he does NON flashy things like blocking shots and rebounding at an elite level.

People get caught up in highlight dunks and long range threes. Defense is undervalued in the NBA I think by many media pundits and fans.

I wouldn't argue with this statement at all. I hope Ant changes that soon, but as of today, I'd give gobert the edge over Kat.

[JasonIsDaMan [enjin:7981157]]

Are we going to miss any of the players we gave up? I'm sure some could make a case for a couple, but by and large we aren't going to miss any of those guys. I'll rank the guys in order from most missed to least:

1) Beasley - Streaky shooter with a lot of basketball still left in him
2) Kessler - Just because who knows?
3) Vanderbilt - Gave us hustle and toughness. I'll miss the toughness, the rest of his game and $.25 will get you a bag of chips
4) Patrick Beverly - Nice for one year, but is really a pain in the ass and is getting old.
5) Bolmaro - Not sure he is an NBA player. Best of luck to him.at

So to me it basically comes down to 3 #1 picks that very well could be in the 20-30 range. The 4th is top 5 protected so it doesn't sting as bad. I realize this is really putting an extreme spin on this, but all those players are replaceable. In addition we finally get to cheer for a team who can legitimately contend. I'm not happy about the price but I'm going to get behind this deal. It clears the way for Jaden to start and hopefully continue to develop into the player Finch thinks he can become. We should be a top 10 team in both offense and defense. And I think we will win at least 4, and hopefully 9-16 playoff games next year.

Beas and Bev are expirings that are obviously worth more than DLO or Utah would have asked for him instead, and like you are as good at anything as JV is at basketball.

[Q-is-here]

First let me toss some kudos to the naysayers here. Your take (that we got fleeced by Utah) is much more in line with the national media than perhaps the more biased positive take of an excited rube like me. So those like me who love this deal have to acknowledge there is a good chance your opinion will prove to be right.

But if you're in the naysayer group, take the time to answer two questions for me. The homers who love this deal like me are welcome to answer too.

1) What would have been your predicted win total for the Wolves prior to the Gobert deal, and what is it now? (For me, probably 45 before, and 55 after)

2) What percentage chance did you give the Wolves of winning an NBA championship in the next 4 years before the Gobert deal, and what percentage chance do you give it now? (For me, 1% before, 50% now).

I recognize these are difficult questions, because injuries, other deals, salary cap etc. have to be considered. But this is how I evaluate a deal. Does it make us significantly better for the upcoming season, and does it significantly increase our chances of being in the championship conversation in a short period of time. And I give a resounding yes to both questions.

Great questions. I'll ignore door #3 (sign a young Pf like Jalen smith or trade for someone like capela)

If we ran it back as is, I'd say 42 next year, now I'll say 52 (if we can trade Dlo for an upgrade at ball boy or water boy, I'll bump this up to 55) :)

I'd go 10% previously and now I'd say 30%. Problem is I think there were a lot of other cheaper moves that could have got it to 25%

That's not illogical from an owner's perspective. But why does that matter to you so much as a fan? If I were to go tell a bunch of fans that we now have a 30% chance at a title instead of 10% with the possibility of may be getting that up to 25%, what choice do you think most of them make?

I guess it's because I'm a practical person by nature, I manage budgets/financials for a living, and I can't help but take the same view as a fan. I think this trade was grossly irresponsible and it basically confirms what I already suspected... TC is pretty good on drafting, but he's basically an idiot when it comes to trades.

I can understand why folks have questions about this trade or think he paid too high of a price, but saying that he's an "idiot" and got bamboozled when he added one of the best defensive players of all time without giving up KAT, Ant, or Jaden and admitting that he just raised our title possibilities by 3X (10% to 30% according to you) doesn't sound like an idiotic move to me. Risky? Sure. Expensive? Absolutely. The work of a stupid person? Nope.

[JasonIsDaMan [enjin:7981157]]

Championship teams make moves to win now. Losing teams continually build for the future .

Really? It's just that simple? So if I went through all the moves the top-4 teams of all 4 major sports over like the past 25 years, none of their moves would be about the future? None at all? Is that why BRK lost to GSW, because they went out and got KG/Pierce, while BOS had to settle for Brown/Tatum? And not only would all of them be about now and not the future, all of those teams would be top-half revenue teams paying luxury taxes or competitive balance taxes? Really? But, hey, glad to see you're back. After your comments about Minneapolis on the "OT America" thread, I thought all the teams were going to have to move to Hutchinson or lose you forever.

[JasonIsDaMan [enjin:7981157]]

Again
Commenting on how you like someone's ability on "Lobs" is a fool's errand. Lobs are a product of a guy being near the rim when their defender has left them to stop a PG who has broken his defender down off the dribble. Remember Mark Jackson (the Wolves Center)? When Marbury got past his guy, if MJ was in the game, that was the guy who was tasked with stopping Marbury, and Marbury would throw him a lob, and he would catch it, and he would dunk it. If the other team tried to cross Marbury up by coming off another guy (I don't know, Sam Mitchell or Peeler), he would find the open guy, shoot, or turn it over. Kind of like Donovan Mitchell does now. Not exactly something that guaranteed just because MIN gave up four 1sts and you typed it into a message board.

[JasonIsDaMan [enjin:7981157]]

Let's look at this trade through a different lens.

Can you imagine what people would be saying about Dallas if they had Gobert and Towns with Luka? Wowzers.

The Wolves did deal away some worthwhile/good players but the cupboard is not bare. Some people don't like Russell but he is a good player a starting PG that now may fit well. Nowell now has a shot at being a terrific 6th man. Anderson is a versatile player who has contributed to winning teams. McDaniels is not proven (neither is Nowell) but even if he doesn't take a massive step he is still probably a pretty good role player. Naz is a worthwhile backup. Prince is a good player.

The Wolves are banking on some guys stepping forward including McLaughlin but if some of them do this could be a really good team and I think there will be some good vibes from the players especially since some players now will have an actual role instead of waiting their turn. What if a guy like Moore is actually able to contribute earlier rather than later if needed?

Not a great comparison. They spent a pick to trade for Luka, and right now Luka is better than Ant. If they got Kat and RG for the same picks that MIN gave up for Just RG, it's more understandable. DAL is also in a much better place revenue-wise. Blame it on them having the fourth largest market. Blame it on nobody in DAL/FTW caring about Hockey. Blame it on a better track record. But it is a fact.

[JasonIsDaMan [enjin:7981157]]

I'm a little shocked at how much guys here are lamenting the loss of these late first rounders. Let's look back at franchise history and go see how many of those late firsts turned into plus-level rotation players. Two? Three? Four may be? Certainly no stars.

And if we have to do a rebuild in three years because this experiment doesn't work, we'll have a massive expiring deal in Gobert, a still highly valued asset in KAT, plus Ant and Jaden. No one thinks we couldn't deal our way into replenishing those firsts and then some if we tore it down to the studs?

Gobert is a defensive superstar. Literally one of the best paint protectors to ever play the game. And durable (unlike Durant!).

I have my own doubts and trepidation about the trade, but I think some folks are making way too big a deal of losing these firsts. This isn't the NFL.

AGAIN, there is no guarantee that these are going to be "Late-First" and GOBERT WAS A LATE FIRST!!!!!!!!!!