Wolves 2022-23 Outlook

[Lipoli390]

Here's one write-up on the Wolves upcoming season I found:

#14?
Logo
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
2021-22 record: 46-36

OffRtg: 113.8 (7) DefRtg: 111.0 (13) NetRtg: +2.7 (10) Pace: 101.5 (1)

Preseason notes: Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert played just 29 minutes together (all in the finale against Brooklyn) and the Wolves were outscored by 16 points in that time, with the Nets scoring at a rate of 131 points per 48 minutes. This team should be more willing to pass the ball to Gobert than the Jazz were and he did show some aggressiveness in sealing smaller defenders under the basket, but his usage rate in 47 total minutes (14.9%) was lower than it was last preseason (21.4%). He's going to get fouled a lot and he's shot just 64.6% from the line over the last four seasons, but 1.29 points per possession is still efficient.

The Wolves won their other four games, though consistency (on both ends of the floor) remains an issue with Anthony Edwards, who had just eight free throw attempts to go with his 68 shots from the field. He may find it harder to get to the basket and to the line when both bigs are in the lineup.

Something to watch in Week 1: Towns' mobility. With Gobert on the floor, Towns will need to be able to defend the perimeter. And (in at least one game) when Gobert was off the floor, the Wolves had Towns blitzing pick-and-rolls (like he did last season), another challenge of his mobility. On offense, Towns likes to trail the break and drive past his man, which may be a little more difficult against opposing forwards than it is against centers.

The Wolves' schedule for the first two weeks may be the softest we've seen in a long time. Their first seven games are against the Thunder (x 2), Jazz, Spurs (x 3) and Lakers.


Week 1: vs. OKC, vs. UTA, @ OKC

[Lipoli390]

Here's another write-up on the Wolves upcoming season - this one from CanisHoopus. Note that the author has the Wolves in the play-in tournament:

16. Minnesota Timberwolves

What's interesting is, Minnesota can have a Memphis Grizzlies-esque season, where they win a bunch of regular season games and lead the league in a handful of stats. But when examining the pool of teams in contention, one can't affirm such a claim with certainty.

Minnesota led the league in scoring at 115.9 PPG. Yet they were in the play-in-tournament come season's end. With their notable addition of Rudy Gobert, the experiment with two big men can either be a match made in heaven, or an eye sore warranting mid-season trade groanings. Minnesota finishing games on defense the way they started games on offense last season will probably have them exceed this appraisal. But for now, it stands.

[Lipoli390]

Coaches poll conducted by The Athletic. The poll named Marcus Smart as the League's best defender and Gobert number 2 for last season:

1. Marcus Smart
2. Rudy Gobert
3. Giannis
4. Holiday

Rudy Gobert, Antetokounmpo and Holiday joined Smart and Green on the coaches' All-Defensive First Team.

Our respondents chose Smart unanimously.

"Just the power of his 'winningness,' so much of it comes out on the defensive end: guarding anybody at any time, always coming up with the loose ball, always coming up with the rebound," an Eastern Conference assistant coach said. "Those winning plays would show up on defense. I feel like it's been an infectious thing that's grown throughout the team in a good way. He's built the culture there in a lot of ways and gotten the more talented players to follow him."

Gobert, an All-Defensive First Team selection the last six seasons, garnered the second-highest number of first-team votes in our survey.

[Q-is-here]

It's shocking to me how little value outside folks put on the Gobert acquisition. While I'm not sure we are a top 7 or 8 NBA team this year, we certainly aren't 16th. Are you kidding me!?

[Wolvesfan21]

Here's one write-up on the Wolves upcoming season I found:

#14?
Logo
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
2021-22 record: 46-36

OffRtg: 113.8 (7) DefRtg: 111.0 (13) NetRtg: +2.7 (10) Pace: 101.5 (1)

Preseason notes: Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert played just 29 minutes together (all in the finale against Brooklyn) and the Wolves were outscored by 16 points in that time, with the Nets scoring at a rate of 131 points per 48 minutes. This team should be more willing to pass the ball to Gobert than the Jazz were and he did show some aggressiveness in sealing smaller defenders under the basket, but his usage rate in 47 total minutes (14.9%) was lower than it was last preseason (21.4%). He's going to get fouled a lot and he's shot just 64.6% from the line over the last four seasons, but 1.29 points per possession is still efficient.

The Wolves won their other four games, though consistency (on both ends of the floor) remains an issue with Anthony Edwards, who had just eight free throw attempts to go with his 68 shots from the field. He may find it harder to get to the basket and to the line when both bigs are in the lineup.

Something to watch in Week 1: Towns' mobility. With Gobert on the floor, Towns will need to be able to defend the perimeter. And (in at least one game) when Gobert was off the floor, the Wolves had Towns blitzing pick-and-rolls (like he did last season), another challenge of his mobility. On offense, Towns likes to trail the break and drive past his man, which may be a little more difficult against opposing forwards than it is against centers.

The Wolves' schedule for the first two weeks may be the softest we've seen in a long time. Their first seven games are against the Thunder (x 2), Jazz, Spurs (x 3) and Lakers.


Week 1: vs. OKC, vs. UTA, @ OKC

KAT was guarded mostly by PF's last year. Centers were on Vando.

[Lipoli390]

It's shocking to me how little value outside folks put on the Gobert acquisition. While I'm not sure we are a top 7 or 8 NBA team this year, we certainly aren't 16th. Are you kidding me!?

Yep. I'm not a fan of the Gobert deal, but even I thought that 16th ranking was nuts.

[Lipoli390]

ESPN has the Wolves ranked 12th with 49 wins and getting into the playoffs without the play-in tournament. I think that's fair. Just about every source other than ardent Wolves fans has the Wolves winning between 47-49 games. Here's an excerpt from the ESPN article:

12. Minnesota Timberwolves

When we last saw them ... After making the playoffs through the play-in tournament, the young Timberwolves gave the Memphis Grizzlies a test in the first round, stretching the series to six games -- the longest Minnesota postseason run since 2004.

Win-loss projections

ESPN Forecast: 49-33

FiveThirtyEight: 47-35

Caesars: 48.5 wins | Title odds: +3000

Timberwolves in NBArank

Karl-Anthony Towns (13)

Rudy Gobert (18)

Anthony Edwards (25)

D'Angelo Russell (93)

[thedoper]

49 got the 5 seed last year. I don't believe there are going to be more wins to go around in the west this year either. I'd be surprised if 49 was the cut off for play in, especially since playoff teams play hard the final two weeks to try and get out of those spots.

[Q-is-here]

If you look at the Vegas odds, it's a fairly narrow band at the top with the title-contending teams estimated at 52 or 53 wins in most cases. The reason is that the always-present risk of injuries makes it imprudent for an oddsmaker to go estimate some team is going to win 55 or more games. Sure, it could happen and probably will, but it's hard to guess which team amongst the best will evade enough injuries to do so. Heck, the Wolves could win 55 games if they stay super healthy. That doesn't mean they are the best team though come playoff time.

[Lipoli390]

A good article:

https://www.canishoopus.com/2022/10/18/23404961/what-does-an-a-grade-season-look-like-for-minnesota-timberwolves-nba-preview