Let’s Make a Deal — NBA Trade Edition

[Q-is-here]

Darren Wolfson:

"Minnesota's definitely trying to trade for Marcus Smart, but unless they include a first-round pick or Jaden McDaniels in addition to Malik Beasley, it most likely doesn't get done."

It sounds like the Wolves have the right idea -- targeting a playmaking guard with defensive chops -- but they're chasing the wrong guy, in my opinion. I would not give up a first-round pick or Jaden McDaniels in a trade for Marcus Smart and his bloated contract.

He'd give us two guys in the top 10 in defensive EPM, the other being Jarred Vanderbilt.

My issue, besides his contract, is his iffy shooting. But still....the plus-minus gods have smiled upon him his entire career. He must be doing something right!

Yeah, playing next to Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, among other really solid players throughout his career! Kudos to Marcus Smart. Very savvy!

In all seriousness, Smart's an OK player. He's just not worth what he's set to be paid or the price to acquire him, especially when there are significantly better options available. That's my take on it.

That's funny because, just like DLO, he has the best Net Rating among the Celtic starters. So may be Tatum and Brown are the ones benefiting from playing next to Smart! Or are you also suggesting that DLO's team high net rating is just random noise and inflated because he plays next to KAT and Ant?

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Darren Wolfson:

"Minnesota's definitely trying to trade for Marcus Smart, but unless they include a first-round pick or Jaden McDaniels in addition to Malik Beasley, it most likely doesn't get done."

It sounds like the Wolves have the right idea -- targeting a playmaking guard with defensive chops -- but they're chasing the wrong guy, in my opinion. I would not give up a first-round pick or Jaden McDaniels in a trade for Marcus Smart and his bloated contract.

He'd give us two guys in the top 10 in defensive EPM, the other being Jarred Vanderbilt.

My issue, besides his contract, is his iffy shooting. But still....the plus-minus gods have smiled upon him his entire career. He must be doing something right!

Yeah, playing next to Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, among other really solid players throughout his career! Kudos to Marcus Smart. Very savvy!

In all seriousness, Smart's an OK player. He's just not worth what he's set to be paid or the price to acquire him, especially when there are significantly better options available. That's my take on it.

That's funny because, just like DLO, he has the best Net Rating among the Celtic starters. So may be Tatum and Brown are the ones benefiting from playing next to Smart! Or are you also suggesting that DLO's team high net rating is just random noise and inflated because he plays next to KAT and Ant?

Well, that would also mean that Marcus Smart is the superior player to Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and the only person on Earth that might actually believe that nonsense is Smart's mother. Oof!

My stance on plus-minus and net rating metrics hasn't changed or wavered. They're noisy stats. They rarely tell the whole story. They certainly lack context. Stop me if you've read this before! When used in combination with everything else at our disposal they can be helpful, but on their own they aren't very meaningful.

Also, my view of D-Lo has been positive here regardless of his plus-minus numbers or net rating -- whether they were negative in the past or positive this year. He's a good point guard. I haven't flip-flopped like others have due to a flawed statistic.

Hypothetically speaking, if D-Lo had one of the worst net ratings on the team but everything else remained the same, including the team's record with him, why would that change your view of him? You can see the impact he has on the game. You can see the importance of having a lead guard that can score and facilitate. If one stat says differently, maybe the focus should be on why you would value that stat in the first place!

[Q-is-here]

Darren Wolfson:

"Minnesota's definitely trying to trade for Marcus Smart, but unless they include a first-round pick or Jaden McDaniels in addition to Malik Beasley, it most likely doesn't get done."

It sounds like the Wolves have the right idea -- targeting a playmaking guard with defensive chops -- but they're chasing the wrong guy, in my opinion. I would not give up a first-round pick or Jaden McDaniels in a trade for Marcus Smart and his bloated contract.

He'd give us two guys in the top 10 in defensive EPM, the other being Jarred Vanderbilt.

My issue, besides his contract, is his iffy shooting. But still....the plus-minus gods have smiled upon him his entire career. He must be doing something right!

Yeah, playing next to Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, among other really solid players throughout his career! Kudos to Marcus Smart. Very savvy!

In all seriousness, Smart's an OK player. He's just not worth what he's set to be paid or the price to acquire him, especially when there are significantly better options available. That's my take on it.

That's funny because, just like DLO, he has the best Net Rating among the Celtic starters. So may be Tatum and Brown are the ones benefiting from playing next to Smart! Or are you also suggesting that DLO's team high net rating is just random noise and inflated because he plays next to KAT and Ant?

Well, that would also mean that Marcus Smart is the superior player to Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and the only person on Earth that might actually believe that nonsense is Smart's mother. Oof!

My stance on plus-minus and net rating metrics hasn't changed or wavered. They're noisy stats. They rarely tell the whole story. They certainly lack context. Stop me if you've read this before! When used in combination with everything else at our disposal they can be helpful, but on their own they aren't very meaningful.

Also, my view of D-Lo has been positive here regardless of his plus-minus numbers or net rating -- whether they were negative in the past or positive this year. He's a good point guard. I haven't flip-flopped like others have due to a flawed statistic.

Hypothetically speaking, if D-Lo had one of the worst net ratings on the team but everything else remained the same, including the team's record with him, why would that change your view of him? You can see the impact he has on the game. You can see the importance of having a lead guard that can score and facilitate. If one stat says differently, maybe the focus should be on why you would value that stat in the first place!

I agree context matters and all the other caveats to plus-minus, blah, blah, blah.....but when a guy like Smart has a positive net rating AND a positive net on/off rating (meaning his team is always worse when he sits) through 8 seasons in the NBA, he's more than just an OK NBA player. He makes 5-man units better. Period. Vando does the same thing by the way. High usage scorers absolutely need the Vandos and Smarts of the world and the Vandos and Smarts of the world need high usage scorers.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Let's backtrack. What are we actually arguing about? Star players need role players and role players need star players, though the degrees of need definitely vary. I've never said differently. Marcus Smart desperately needs Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown in order to be a meaningful player -- regardless of whatever his advanced stats tell you. The same can be said about Jarred Vanderbilt and Minnesota's star players, I suppose. But we're getting further away from the topic at hand.

The main point in all of this was that who Smart is as a player -- a 3/D ball-handler without the 3 -- and his bloated contract make him a poor trade target for this team. I hope Minnesota looks elsewhere by the deadline.

[FNG]

Darren Wolfson:

"Minnesota's definitely trying to trade for Marcus Smart, but unless they include a first-round pick or Jaden McDaniels in addition to Malik Beasley, it most likely doesn't get done."

It sounds like the Wolves have the right idea -- targeting a playmaking guard with defensive chops -- but they're chasing the wrong guy, in my opinion. I would not give up a first-round pick or Jaden McDaniels in a trade for Marcus Smart and his bloated contract.

He'd give us two guys in the top 10 in defensive EPM, the other being Jarred Vanderbilt.

My issue, besides his contract, is his iffy shooting. But still....the plus-minus gods have smiled upon him his entire career. He must be doing something right!

Yeah, playing next to Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, among other really solid players throughout his career! Kudos to Marcus Smart. Very savvy!

In all seriousness, Smart's an OK player. He's just not worth what he's set to be paid or the price to acquire him, especially when there are significantly better options available. That's my take on it.

That's funny because, just like DLO, he has the best Net Rating among the Celtic starters. So may be Tatum and Brown are the ones benefiting from playing next to Smart! Or are you also suggesting that DLO's team high net rating is just random noise and inflated because he plays next to KAT and Ant?

Well, that would also mean that Marcus Smart is the superior player to Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and the only person on Earth that might actually believe that nonsense is Smart's mother. Oof!

My stance on plus-minus and net rating metrics hasn't changed or wavered. They're noisy stats. They rarely tell the whole story. They certainly lack context. Stop me if you've read this before! When used in combination with everything else at our disposal they can be helpful, but on their own they aren't very meaningful.

Also, my view of D-Lo has been positive here regardless of his plus-minus numbers or net rating -- whether they were negative in the past or positive this year. He's a good point guard. I haven't flip-flopped like others have due to a flawed statistic.

Hypothetically speaking, if D-Lo had one of the worst net ratings on the team but everything else remained the same, including the team's record with him, why would that change your view of him? You can see the impact he has on the game. You can see the importance of having a lead guard that can score and facilitate. If one stat says differently, maybe the focus should be on why you would value that stat in the first place!

Cam, I'm sure you didn't mean to suggest that anyone here has flip-flopped on DLo's value merely based on his gigantic improvement in on/off or +/-...a statistic in which he has underperformed his entire career. You know there isn't one poster here who would be only use that measure to conclude that DLo is playing much better this year (although it is a strong indicator that he is). Those who have noted that DLo is not even close to the same player he has been the rest of his career have also pointed out several other measures which support this take.

1) DLo and Wiggins are the only two max player in the association with a double digit negative net rating on BasketballReference prior to this year. This year he is still negative, but he is much improved with an ORtg of 111 and a DRtg of 113, a 7 point improvement over last year and 8 points better than his average year coming into this season.

2) Even more dramatic is his positive net rating of 7.5 on nba.com. Prior to this year, he had a negative net rating every year of his career except for his "all-star" year when he was positive by .2. Nobody could honestly argue that is not a significant improvement.

3) While the eye test is not statistical, almost everyone here agree that his defense looks remarkably different this year. his numbers on nba.com surpass even the eye test. He has a defensive rating of 104.9 this year, an extraordinary improvement over his career number of 113.

4) He's protecting the ball and distributing much better than any year of his career. His A:TO ratio of 2.56 is the best of his career.

5) While he started the year slowly shooting and was honest about his issues with the new ball, his vastly improved shot selection has him at a 54 TS%, 10 percentage points better than his career average.

So other than PPG, which are 1 point lower than last year but still better than his career scoring average. By any valid measure, DLo is performing at a level far beyond anything he has done in his career. Prior to this year, he was a talented player who didn't seem to be meeting his potential, didn't measure much better than average in the types of advanced statistics smart NBA fans use to measure value, and certainly wasn't making his teams better (as measured by his poor on/off numbers and wins and losses. Most of us are thrilled to see this kid turn his career around this season and become a positive contributor.

So I have provided a number of measures that show DLo is performing at a different level than he ever has before. I respect your admiration for DLo...we all have players we gravitate to, and you've been a passionate supporter of his even when the vast majority of posters here were critical of his defense and offensive consistency. But I'm curious what statistical measure you use to demonstrate that he has always played at a high level, because I'm just not seeing it.

[Jester1534]

Darren Wolfson:

"Minnesota's definitely trying to trade for Marcus Smart, but unless they include a first-round pick or Jaden McDaniels in addition to Malik Beasley, it most likely doesn't get done."

It sounds like the Wolves have the right idea -- targeting a playmaking guard with defensive chops -- but they're chasing the wrong guy, in my opinion. I would not give up a first-round pick or Jaden McDaniels in a trade for Marcus Smart and his bloated contract.

He'd give us two guys in the top 10 in defensive EPM, the other being Jarred Vanderbilt.

My issue, besides his contract, is his iffy shooting. But still....the plus-minus gods have smiled upon him his entire career. He must be doing something right!

Yeah, playing next to Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, among other really solid players throughout his career! Kudos to Marcus Smart. Very savvy!

In all seriousness, Smart's an OK player. He's just not worth what he's set to be paid or the price to acquire him, especially when there are significantly better options available. That's my take on it.

That's funny because, just like DLO, he has the best Net Rating among the Celtic starters. So may be Tatum and Brown are the ones benefiting from playing next to Smart! Or are you also suggesting that DLO's team high net rating is just random noise and inflated because he plays next to KAT and Ant?

Well, that would also mean that Marcus Smart is the superior player to Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and the only person on Earth that might actually believe that nonsense is Smart's mother. Oof!

My stance on plus-minus and net rating metrics hasn't changed or wavered. They're noisy stats. They rarely tell the whole story. They certainly lack context. Stop me if you've read this before! When used in combination with everything else at our disposal they can be helpful, but on their own they aren't very meaningful.

Also, my view of D-Lo has been positive here regardless of his plus-minus numbers or net rating -- whether they were negative in the past or positive this year. He's a good point guard. I haven't flip-flopped like others have due to a flawed statistic.

Hypothetically speaking, if D-Lo had one of the worst net ratings on the team but everything else remained the same, including the team's record with him, why would that change your view of him? You can see the impact he has on the game. You can see the importance of having a lead guard that can score and facilitate. If one stat says differently, maybe the focus should be on why you would value that stat in the first place!

Cam, I'm sure you didn't mean to suggest that anyone here has flip-flopped on DLo's value merely based on his gigantic improvement in on/off or +/-...a statistic in which he has underperformed his entire career. You know there isn't one poster here who would be only use that measure to conclude that DLo is playing much better this year (although it is a strong indicator that he is). Those who have noted that DLo is not even close to the same player he has been the rest of his career have also pointed out several other measures which support this take.

1) DLo and Wiggins are the only two max player in the association with a double digit negative net rating on BasketballReference prior to this year. This year he is still negative, but he is much improved with an ORtg of 111 and a DRtg of 113, a 7 point improvement over last year and 8 points better than his average year coming into this season.

2) Even more dramatic is his positive net rating of 7.5 on nba.com. Prior to this year, he had a negative net rating every year of his career except for his "all-star" year when he was positive by .2. Nobody could honestly argue that is not a significant improvement.

3) While the eye test is not statistical, almost everyone here agree that his defense looks remarkably different this year. his numbers on nba.com surpass even the eye test. He has a defensive rating of 104.9 this year, an extraordinary improvement over his career number of 113.

4) He's protecting the ball and distributing much better than any year of his career. His A:TO ratio of 2.56 is the best of his career.

5) While he started the year slowly shooting and was honest about his issues with the new ball, his vastly improved shot selection has him at a 54 TS%, 10 percentage points better than his career average.

So other than PPG, which are 1 point lower than last year but still better than his career scoring average. By any valid measure, DLo is performing at a level far beyond anything he has done in his career. Prior to this year, he was a talented player who didn't seem to be meeting his potential, didn't measure much better than average in the types of advanced statistics smart NBA fans use to measure value, and certainly wasn't making his teams better (as measured by his poor on/off numbers and wins and losses. Most of us are thrilled to see this kid turn his career around this season and become a positive contributor.

So I have provided a number of measures that show DLo is performing at a different level than he ever has before. I respect your admiration for DLo...we all have players we gravitate to, and you've been a passionate supporter of his even when the vast majority of posters here were critical of his defense and offensive consistency. But I'm curious what statistical measure you use to demonstrate that he has always played at a high level, because I'm just not seeing it.

I'm going to look at this as a different angle

Couldn't you make the argument he's always been this player he just needed the right fit in the wolves.

It's not like the guy has had the easiest time as pro in the NBA. 2 years of Kobe show and then was shipped to Nets where he had to play and learn to be the guy there as 21 year old. Then he gets shipped to GSW and was a terrible fit there and they didn't want him they just didn't want to lose KD for nothing.

Dude turns 26 in February maybe he figure out how to maximize his game and become a pro.

Why can't all this be true people say it about Wiggins all the time. Oh in Minnesota he had to be guy and the reason his stats are so much better because now he's the Harrison Barnes role in GSW. It's basically the sam narrative.

[AbeVigodaLive]

There are very few players who are going to excel in any situation.

I think what Jester wrote has merit. Russell is in a pretty good situation in Minnesota, certainly better than the Kobe-esque clownshow in LA and obviously not fitting in or being part of GS' long term plans.

He saw more success in Brooklyn when he was clearly part of the plan.

Minnesota has seemingly made him a priority since his arrival and perhaps we're seeing that manifest itself on the court.

[Q-is-here]

There are very few players who are going to excel in any situation

I think what Jester wrote has merit. Russell is in a pretty good situation in Minnesota, certainly better than the Kobe-esque clownshow in LA and obviously not fitting in or being part of GS' long term plans.

He saw more success in Brooklyn when he was clearly part of the plan.

Minnesota has seemingly made him a priority since his arrival and perhaps we're seeing that manifest itself on the court.

True, but the counter to that is that those very few players that make max money should be the ones that excel in any situation. I'm pretty sure Gobert, Embiid, Lillard, Paul George, and even KAT are going to be a plus player no matter what situation he's in. But the fact that DLO seemingly needs a very specific set of circumstances to click into place (same goes for Wiggins BTW) suggests that he's overpaid.

Congrats to Rossas and Finch for creating the player personnel and scheme for DLO to excel in. I'm still a little worried about how much he demands for his next contract.

[FNG]

Yeah, I also agree with jester that the situation Dlo is in currently has a lot to do with his resurgence this season. I think the addition of PatBev plus the offensive brilliance of Finchy have really been instrumental in helping DLo reach his potential, and I also think he has matured a lot from the guy we watched in his Laker days.

But my post wasn't directed toward why DLo is playing at such a high level this year. It was merely pointing out that DLo's performance this season, both based on a variety of statistics and the eye test, is far far better than anything he has done before. Let's hope he gets healthy and keeps it up, because the team is clicking right now.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Shams Charania:

The Minnesota Timberwolves have also remained in conversations with the 76ers, but are unwilling to meet Philadelphia's high threshold for draft picks. Minnesota has indicated an openness to discussing a package that includes Simmons and Tobias Harris, sources said, but that offer would not come with draft capital from the Timberwolves and the 76ers do not view both players as part of a salary dump trade. The gulf in perspective is why there hasn't been much traction so far. At 27-25, the Timberwolves are firmly in the postseason picture in the Western Conference, have had positive play from All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns, rising young guard Anthony Edwards and veteran guard D'Angelo Russell. Timberwolves vice president of basketball operations Sachin Gupta has been described as dutiful and active in conversations throughout the league.

Link: https://theathletic.com/3112818/2022/02/04/a-james-harden-ben-simmons-deal-is-a-possibility-before-the-nba-trade-deadline-sources/?source=user_shared_article

I wish the organization would move on from this already. I get that they're doing their diligence, but Ben Simmons should not be the focus for the Wolves anymore.