Red and Yellow Flags for Draft Prospects

[Lipoli390]

As all of us do our usual pre-draft analysis of prospects and weigh in on who we want and don't want, I thought it made sense to start a thread devoted entire to red flags and yellow caution flags to consider when evaluating those prospects. To me, red flags are certain characteristics that tell you not to even consider drafting a prospect in spite of what might be his considerable gifts - major negative characteristics that are highly unlikely to change or overcome. A yellow cautionary flag applies to negative characteristics that are unlikely to change but that can be overcome

Here are my four red flags

1. Lack of love for the game (all players). If a prospect doesn't truly love the game, he will be a bust. The Wolves have had their share of those players over the years in Darko, Kandiman, Wes Johnson and Darrick Williams. As I've mentioned before, people inside the Wolves organization told me that Williams loved the NBA lifestyle more than the NBA game. Players who don't love the game can succeed in high school and college based solely on their physical gifts, but those things fall well short when they face the incredibly elite level of competition in the NBA. Without a love for the game, a player won't put in anything close to the time and effort needed to succeed at the NBA level.

2. Lack of competitiveness (all players). This one is similar to a lack of love for the game, but not quite as bad. Yet, it typically leads to the same result. Without a strong competitive drive, it's unlikely that a player will put in the time and effort to succeed. Andrew Wiggins might be an example of this. I actually think he likes playing the game, but I also think he lacks a strong competitive streak. He's about as physically gifted as any player who has ever played, but he has underperformed I think in part because of his lack of competitiveness.

3. Low basketball IQ (all players). This is a difficult and somewhat subjective red flag. This one isn't as bad as the first two, but it's still a factor that tells me to stay away. It's similar to the first two in that it is unlikely to change. By the time a prospect enters the draft after playing basketball most of his life, he's either astute or he's not. You don't stop learning when you turn 18 or 22, but you don't get smarter. I'm struggling to think of an example at the moment, but a former T-Wolf named Gerald Green comes to mind. He was ultimately able to have an NBA career, unlike Darko, Kandiman and Darrick Williams, but it was a spotty career that fell well below his considerable physical gifts.

4. Poor ball-handling (wings/guards). This is a basic motor skill that a player either has or doesn't have by the time he turns 18 or 19 years old. Yes, this skill can improve at the margins, but it won't improve a lot. Again, I'll use Andrew Wiggins as an example. He is clearly a relatively poor ball-handler by NBA wing standards and I think that has been a major factor holding him back from becoming a star commensurate with his other considerable athletic gifts.

Here are my yellow flags:

1. Injury history or medical issues (all players). This is a really important factor in evaluating draft prospects. As we all know, the most important ability in a basketball player is the ability to play. No matter how gifted a prospect might be, those gifts mean absolutely nothing if the player is rarely on the court. Sam Bowie is perhaps the best historical example of this factor and in his case it might have been a red rather than a yellow flag. There are, however, more recent examples. Medical reports indicated that Joel Embiid had certain structural issues that would make him more susceptible to injury or shorten his career. Embiid is why I look at this issue as a yellow rather than a red flag. As it turns out, Embiid has missed a lot of games with injuries, but he's also been a League MVP caliber player. Jonathan Isaac might be another example. There were medical reports of physical issues that some thought would make him more susceptible to leg injuries. We can't know whether his issues have anything to do with what was identified in those reports, but that's a possibility. In any event, Bud Grant was right when he said it's always the same guys in the training room. Some people are more prone to physical problems and injuries than others. A history of physical issues or underlying physical or medical issues are yellow cautionary flags that need to be carefully considered.

2. Short arms (all players). Finally, I get to my favorite topic - wingspan and standing reach. There's the old adage, "you can't teach size." In other words, with rare exception your length is what it is by the time you enter the NBA draft. And the reality is that, in the NBA, size matters and matters a lot. Basketball is a game of space -- vertical space defined by a 10-foot high rim and horizontal space defined by a 94' X 50' court. There is only so much space vertically to get a shot off and only so much space horizontally to pass or dribble your way to the basket. We've seen players with limited length succeed. Charles Barkley might be the best example. He was a superstar PF at around 6'5" tall. I don't know how long his arms were, but he was lacking in length compared to his PF peers. Brandon Clarke, while not a star by any stretch, is a more recent example of a successful PF who lacks length. So length can't be a red-flag show-stopper. But it's definitely a cautionary flag that requires thorough consideration of other characteristics. One thing both Barkley and Clarke have in common are tremendous vertical leaps and tenacity along with good basketball IQs. Barkley was also incredibly strong and an excellent ball-handler.

3. Slow feet (all players). In addition to being a game of space, basketball is game of speed. If you sit court-side at an NBA game you are blown away by the speed of the game. It's incredible. A fast game within limited space requires quick feet. It's what Kevin McHale referred to as "small-area quickness." That's why I don't pay too much attention to combine 3/4-court sprint speeds. I'm far more interested in the agility test and shuttle run, both of which focus more on that small-area quickness McHale was referring to. It's also something to focus on when watching prospects in an actual game or highlight videos. Some players can overcome slow feet, especially on the offensive end, with craftiness and change of speed and direction along with a high basketball IQ. A fast-processing mind like Larry Bird's when combined with other attributes can also overcome relatively slow feet. But slow feet are definitely a yellow flag that should make an NBA team think twice about drafting someone. Like length and IQ, slow feet at age 18 don't become fast at age 25.

4. Poor rebounding (bigs). NBA teams should be highly reluctant to draft bigs who have a track record of poor rebounding in college. It's often said that rebounding is a skill that translates from college to the NBA better than any other skill. I think that's true. But the flip side is that poor or mediocre rebounders in college tend to be poor or mediocre rebounders in the NBA. That might be OK in a guard or wing prospect, but it's a near fatal flaw in a center or power forward prospect. Rebounding is such a critical part of basketball because it determines possessions and opportunities to score. No team can rely exclusively on their bigs for rebounding, but a team's bigs are key to being a good rebounding team. I put this as a yellow flag because a big might be so good at other things - shooting or shot-blocking - that he's worth drafting in spite of his rebounding deficiencies. But in my view, those other attributes need to be really, really good to justify drafting a poor-rebounding big.

I'll stop here and invite thoughts and discussion on this topic. I'd be interested on how you all think about some of these factors generally and as applied to some of the prospect in this year's draft.

[Q-is-here]

Good stuff here Lip. I don't know much about this year's draft prospects, but we definitely want to avoid someone with red flag #1 and #2. This team needs guys that love the game and eat nails for breakfast. Lord knows we aren't getting any toughness out of KAT or DLO. And Ant still makes a lot of mental errors out there.

[thedoper]

I think love of game and lack of competitiveness are really hard to ascertain with these one and done prospects. Thank god Ant and Jaden's supposed issues in this area didnt scare us away. Zach Lavine was another dude that slipped because of these supposed concerns. I thinks its just really tough to know what makes these kids tick in this area from one year in college or the G league.

[Q-is-here]

I think love of game and lack of competitiveness are really hard to ascertain with these one and done prospects. Thank god Ant and Jaden's supposed issues in this area didnt scare us away. Zach Lavine was another dude that slipped because of these supposed concerns. I thinks its just really tough to know what makes these kids tick in this area from one year in college or the G league.

May be for us amateurs, but the guys spending 100% of their time scouting and backgrounding prospects should get a good feel for this stuff. On Ant and Jaden, we really had no clue - just perceptions based on a quote here or there taken out of proportion.

As for LaVine.....still not a big fan, although he is a legit shooter and scorer. Just feel like #3 is still somewhat of an issue for him.

[Q-is-here]

Lip, Another yellow flag I'd add is poor hands. Both Wiggins and Vanderbilt would be a couple guys Wolves fans are familiar with that were plagued by this problem. Obviously both are on different sides of the overall talent spectrum, but it has held both of them back to a degree.

[Monster]

I think Lip missed an opportunity with the title for this thread. I think it should have been "Fun With Flags"

Lip what are your white flags for prospects? :)

[KG4Ever]

Lip, while I agree with those items, I don't think we would have drafted Ant based on Red Flag #1 after some of the crazy pre-draft things he said. For a reminder, See article: https://brobible.com/sports/article/top-nba-draft-prospect-anthony-edwards-nfl/

The hard thing is how to measure items 1-3 as they aren't quantifiable the same way basketball stats and measurements are. I think there is some overlap with the first three items and while I am not sure how you measure love for the game besides finding out how much time they spend working on their game and trying to improve whether its in the gym, working out or watching video. Competitiveness probably has some overlap with time working on game, but also how a player responds in close games with some subjectiveness in an of assessment court demeanor and how hard they take losses. I guess you might add hustle plays which can be measured. Basketball IQ is super important, and sometimes its quite obvious a player has it and sometimes its not.

[Lipoli390]

I think love of game and lack of competitiveness are really hard to ascertain with these one and done prospects. Thank god Ant and Jaden's supposed issues in this area didnt scare us away. Zach Lavine was another dude that slipped because of these supposed concerns. I thinks its just really tough to know what makes these kids tick in this area from one year in college or the G league.

May be for us amateurs, but the guys spending 100% of their time scouting and backgrounding prospects should get a good feel for this stuff. On Ant and Jaden, we really had no clue - just perceptions based on a quote here or there taken out of proportion.

As for LaVine.....still not a big fan, although he is a legit shooter and scorer. Just feel like #3 is still somewhat of an issue for him.

I agree, Q. And that's what I'd say to KG about not drafting Ant based on red flag #1. Good scouts and front office execs who are paid to make those judgments and who have enormously more information that we have should be able to see through the silly comments of an 18 year old and know whether that prospect truly lacks a love of the game or competitive spirit. I remember reading Ant's comment about preferring football. That comment fed my red flag narrative that caused me to hope the Wolves didn't draft him. Thankfully, Rosas and his front office team knew a lot more than i did about Anthony Edwards and they made the right judgment call. When I look back and remember watching video of Edwards in college I should have known that his comment in that article and various reports about him weren't an accurate account of his character. In the videos, I saw Ant as a joyful, exuberant competitor.

I suspect the teams that have drafted guys who lack competitiveness or a love of the game were probably blinded by the prospect's talent. That was probably the case with Kandiman and Darko. The combination of talent and physical skills were too enticing to pass up. It's what Portland did when they drafted Sam Bowie instead of Michael Jordan in spite of serious physical issues that were more of a red flag than a yellow one. I got a first hand look at that sort of self deception when I was invited to a small gathering of some season ticket holders and the Wolves #2 front office exec under David Kahn just after the Wolves signed Darko. During the Q & A, I questioned the signing when the rest of the League appeared to have concluded that Darko didn't have the interest or desire to compete. The answer I got from Kahn's #2 was revealing. He said that Darko had matured - that he had just gotten married and wasn't the same guy he'd been his entire NBA career to date. I thought to myself, what does getting married have to do with whether he loves the game or has an competitive zeal? But I bit my tongue and kept quiet. What we heard from Kahn's #2 that day was pure rationalizing by a front office that wasn't very good and ready to believe their own self-deception. Darko was mana from heaven, said Kahn in one of the most embarrassing moments any NBA executive has every experienced on national television.

From the outside looking in, we're not well positioned as fans to spot those character red flags. We don't have all the background information and personal contact with draft prospects that front office execs and scouts have by the time draft day rolls around. As Wolves fans, we have to hope that Connelly and his front office colleagues and scouts, who have a ton of information and contact with prospects, are smart enough to see those red flags and disciplined enough to heed the warning that those red flags provide.