lipoli390 wrote:I wouldn't deal Okogie for Oubre for the following two reasons:
1. First, since Oubre has only one year left on his contract, we'd be giving up our best defensive player for what could easily end up being no more than a one-year rental. Moreover, Oubre will make $14.5 million next season, so re-signing him would cost at least than and likely far more. In contrast, the Wolves have Okogie locked up for at least 2 more seasons under an inexpensive rookie contract that peaks at $4.5 million the year after next.
2. Second, I'm not sure Oubre is better than Okogie over the long haul. When comparing the two, it's important to look at who they could realistically be two years from now and not just at who a they are now. At the moment, Oubre is clearly a better overall player than Okogie. But Oubre has played five seasons compared to Okogie's two and they were similarly rated prospects coming out of college.
Rather than comparing Oubre's 5th season stats with Okogie's 2nd year numbers, do an apples-to-applies comparison of their respective 2nd seasons and you'll see that Okogie's stats were actually slightly better than Oubre's. Note that Oubre was a similarly poor 3-point shooter that season as well (28.7% v. 26.6%). Oubre's stats improved significantly in his 3rd season and he had what I'd call his breakout season in year 4. Since most NBA players show the most improvement between their 2nd and 3rd seasons or later, I think it would be a big mistake to deal Okogie now unless he's part of a package to land a star like Simmons or Beal.
Looking beyond their respective NBA stats, Oubre and Okogie don't differ much physically. Yes, Oubre is 2.75" taller than Okogie. But again, it's length, not height, that matters and Oubre's overhead reach is only a half inch longer than Okogie's (8'6.5" v. 8'6). As McHale once said, you don't shoot, block shots, rebound or steal the ball with your head. His point was that length is the metric that matters. Both Oubre and Okogie have similarly long wingspans that exceed the NBA average for the SF position (Oubre 7'2, Okogie 7'0). Okogie has a stronger/sturdier build than Oubre. Okogie weighed 211 lbs coming out of college compared to Oubre at 203 lbs. They are both terrific athletes, but Okogie's athletic combine testing results were better than Oubre's on every major metric - 42" vertical compared to 37", 3.03 shuttle v. 3.12; 3.04 spring v. 3.32.
So yes, Oubre is the better player right now, averaging 18 points and 6.4 rebounds per game last season. I like him. No doubt that Oubre performing at the level of his last two seasons would be an upgrade over Okogie performing at his 2nd-season level. But I don't think swapping Okogie for Oubre is advisable given their comparative contractual situations and Okogie's potential. I understand that we can't count on Okogie improving to the same extent as Oubre after his second season. But Okogie's significant improvement between his rookie and sophomore seasons, coupled with his high motor and great work ethic, suggest that he will. And his contract will provide more certainty and more cap flexibility than Oubre's.
I would definitely consider trading our #17 pick and Johnson for Oubre. But again, I'm concerned about the one-year rental risk and, even if he is open to re-signing here, the cost of retaining him. Part of the decision, in my view, would depend on whether and at what price the Wolves re-sign Beasley. If the Wolves end up paying Beasley $17 million per year, I don't see how the Wolves could responsibly deal for Oubre, knowing that re-signing him would probably cost at least that and probably more.
So then we shouldn't re-sign Beasley if you are banking on Josh improving further because there aren't minutes for both of them at the 2, neither can play PG and then playing Josh at the 3 doesn't work at all against the best players in the league. We have too many SG's and we can't keep them all. Beasley, Culver, Okogie. Pick 2 and deal the third because Russell can also play some 2 so we just have too many guards that play that spot. At some point you have to turn all these guys into a team and a Russell, Culver, Beasley, Okogie, J Mac depth chart for 2 spots is too much.
Also just a note, if the Wolves pay Beasley $17 million a year I'm out. That's an atrocious and ridiculous contract to give to a guy who hasn't started much in his career. You can't be in the business of paying role players so much you hope their play earns that contract. You have to pay them what they are actually worth and hope their play makes it a good deal for you. If someone else gives him $17 million say goodbye and hope Culver and Okogie continue to develop.
Completely agreed about Malik Beasley. You absolutely cannot overpay him, which makes giving up a first-round pick for him in the Robert Covington trade even more puzzling. Minnesota essentially allowed him to tryout and boost his value prior to free agency for the cost of a first-round pick. For that reason, Gersson Rosas might feel pressured to retain him no matter the dollar amount.
Q12543 wrote:Speaking of Beasley, whatever happened to that imbroglio he got caught up in with the drugs, etc.? That seemed to go quiet really quick.
I do wonder if the front office looks at Edwards as the guy at #1 and then basically forgoes paying Beasley all that money. We'd still have too many SGs on the roster, but it would allow them to cut bait with Beasley and avoid a potential overpay.
+1000 for the word choice. I don't see "imbroglio" twice in a decade.
lipoli390 wrote:I wouldn't deal Okogie for Oubre for the following two reasons:
1. First, since Oubre has only one year left on his contract, we'd be giving up our best defensive player for what could easily end up being no more than a one-year rental. Moreover, Oubre will make $14.5 million next season, so re-signing him would cost at least than and likely far more. In contrast, the Wolves have Okogie locked up for at least 2 more seasons under an inexpensive rookie contract that peaks at $4.5 million the year after next.
2. Second, I'm not sure Oubre is better than Okogie over the long haul. When comparing the two, it's important to look at who they could realistically be two years from now and not just at who a they are now. At the moment, Oubre is clearly a better overall player than Okogie. But Oubre has played five seasons compared to Okogie's two and they were similarly rated prospects coming out of college.
Rather than comparing Oubre's 5th season stats with Okogie's 2nd year numbers, do an apples-to-applies comparison of their respective 2nd seasons and you'll see that Okogie's stats were actually slightly better than Oubre's. Note that Oubre was a similarly poor 3-point shooter that season as well (28.7% v. 26.6%). Oubre's stats improved significantly in his 3rd season and he had what I'd call his breakout season in year 4. Since most NBA players show the most improvement between their 2nd and 3rd seasons or later, I think it would be a big mistake to deal Okogie now unless he's part of a package to land a star like Simmons or Beal.
Looking beyond their respective NBA stats, Oubre and Okogie don't differ much physically. Yes, Oubre is 2.75" taller than Okogie. But again, it's length, not height, that matters and Oubre's overhead reach is only a half inch longer than Okogie's (8'6.5" v. 8'6). As McHale once said, you don't shoot, block shots, rebound or steal the ball with your head. His point was that length is the metric that matters. Both Oubre and Okogie have similarly long wingspans that exceed the NBA average for the SF position (Oubre 7'2, Okogie 7'0). Okogie has a stronger/sturdier build than Oubre. Okogie weighed 211 lbs coming out of college compared to Oubre at 203 lbs. They are both terrific athletes, but Okogie's athletic combine testing results were better than Oubre's on every major metric - 42" vertical compared to 37", 3.03 shuttle v. 3.12; 3.04 spring v. 3.32.
So yes, Oubre is the better player right now, averaging 18 points and 6.4 rebounds per game last season. I like him. No doubt that Oubre performing at the level of his last two seasons would be an upgrade over Okogie performing at his 2nd-season level. But I don't think swapping Okogie for Oubre is advisable given their comparative contractual situations and Okogie's potential. I understand that we can't count on Okogie improving to the same extent as Oubre after his second season. But Okogie's significant improvement between his rookie and sophomore seasons, coupled with his high motor and great work ethic, suggest that he will. And his contract will provide more certainty and more cap flexibility than Oubre's.
I would definitely consider trading our #17 pick and Johnson for Oubre. But again, I'm concerned about the one-year rental risk and, even if he is open to re-signing here, the cost of retaining him. Part of the decision, in my view, would depend on whether and at what price the Wolves re-sign Beasley. If the Wolves end up paying Beasley $17 million per year, I don't see how the Wolves could responsibly deal for Oubre, knowing that re-signing him would probably cost at least that and probably more.
So then we shouldn't re-sign Beasley if you are banking on Josh improving further because there aren't minutes for both of them at the 2, neither can play PG and then playing Josh at the 3 doesn't work at all against the best players in the league. We have too many SG's and we can't keep them all. Beasley, Culver, Okogie. Pick 2 and deal the third because Russell can also play some 2 so we just have too many guards that play that spot. At some point you have to turn all these guys into a team and a Russell, Culver, Beasley, Okogie, J Mac depth chart for 2 spots is too much.
Also just a note, if the Wolves pay Beasley $17 million a year I'm out. That's an atrocious and ridiculous contract to give to a guy who hasn't started much in his career. You can't be in the business of paying role players so much you hope their play earns that contract. You have to pay them what they are actually worth and hope their play makes it a good deal for you. If someone else gives him $17 million say goodbye and hope Culver and Okogie continue to develop.
Completely agreed about Malik Beasley. You absolutely cannot overpay him, which makes giving up a first-round pick for him in the Robert Covington trade even more puzzling. Minnesota essentially allowed him to tryout and boost his value prior to free agency for the cost of a first-round pick. For that reason, Gersson Rosas might feel pressured to retain him no matter the dollar amount.
FWIW the last 2 times Bobby Marks has been on Wolfson's podcast he said he simply doesn't see a market for Beasley except maybe the Knicks but he isn't sure they are going to fork over the cash for him at this point. He said Beasley may have to revisit something like that 3-30 Denver offered. He said it would likely be a poor decision To play for the qualifying offer because he may have hard time recouping the money back. I don't always think Marks is right on these things but he Has some clue. Beasley being a RFA adds plenty of leverage. I'd be willing to be a little proactive with Beasley (depending on what cap I bets are looking like) and give him something along the lines of 3-36 just to get him locked in. It's possible they can squeeze him for less but maybe some other team would decide to make an offer if that's all it was gonna take...or maybe some team would want to do a sign and trade and the Wolves get an asset of some kind back...but those trades are pretty tricky.
Here is a real question to ask when it comes to Okogie vs Oubre. Which guy is actually better at guarding SFs? I haven't seen anything that suggests that Oubre is a plus defender at any point of his career. Yay he is longer but that doesn't mean he will he better guarding that SF spot. I have no problems playing Okogie or Culver at the 3 for a while. When we get wiped out of the playoffs (If we ever make it) because they aren't big enough I'll worry about that then. They can play there in the meantime if we don't add something better in some way.
Personally I dont give a damn about a charge for smoking weed or being caught with weed paraphernalia.
Second, Oubre is not a great player, I would not trade any significant asset for him, I would only take him in a cap dump for minimal assets. I dont view Okogie or #17 fitting that mold.
TheFuture wrote:Personally I dont give a damn about a charge for smoking weed or being caught with weed paraphernalia.
Second, Oubre is not a great player, I would not trade any significant asset for him, I would only take him in a cap dump for minimal assets. I dont view Okogie or #17 fitting that mold.
