Camden wrote:FNG, I have a genuine question for you. Why is that you routinely refer to a player's career stats rather than either the most recent season or the most recent seasons in cumulative form? Is what a guy produced five or six years ago (or more) even relevant anymore if there's been tangible improvement (or regression) in a number of statistical categories since then? I understand building a statistical case for or against a player and that requires data, but if the data is significantly outdated, then what is it worth?
For example, you like to use D'Angelo Russell's career numbers when it comes to three-point shooting (36.0 3P%) and his overall scoring efficiency (.529 TS%). Is that a true reflection of that player's ability in the present or could we deduce that there's been legitimate progression that renders those career marks a bit outdated and no longer meaningful?
2015-16: 35.1 3P%, .507 TS%
2016-17: 35.2 3P%, .518 TS%
2017-18: 32.4 3P%, .509 TS%
Total: 355-1032 3PA (34.4 3P%), .511 TS%
2018-19: 36.9 3P%, .533 TS%
2019-20: 36.7 3P%, .556 TS%
2020-21: 38.7 3P%, .555 TS%
Total: 512-1376 3PA (37.2 3P%), .544 TS%
I want to reiterate that this isn't about Russell and I used that as an example, but rather this is me wanting to understand the "how" and "why" you use stats the way you do. Maybe it's not even conscious on your part, but it's happened enough to where it's piqued my interest.
Cam - I won't answer for FNG on this. But here are my own general thoughts on using career stats to assess a player's present value. First, I think any assessment should be based on a combination of a player's career stats and his most recent. Second, I tend to give more weight to recent stats in younger players who have 2-5 years in the League because players typically improve their stats substantially in their 2nd and 3rd seasons with some additional significant improvement in their 4th. Finally, I look at the progression and give more weight to recent years if they reflect a steady improvement year to year, which tells me something about that player's trajectory.
Applying my analysis to DLO leads me to give significantly more weight to his recent shooting relative to his career stats. His shooting stats the past three seasons have been considerably better than in his first three seasons. Moreover, with the exception of his third season, his 3-point percentage has improved each season. Hence, like you, I see DLO primarily as the player reflected in his averages over the past three seasons. I haven't looked at his defensive stats, but I suspect his defensive rating hasn't followed the same upward trajectory as his shooting. I'm not sure about his on/off numbers either. But as a shooter, I see DLO as a 37-38% three-point shooter with a TS of around 54%. Those are very nice numbers for a PG, and at age 25, I still see room for further improvement.
The key for DLO, in my view, remains his defense and contribution to winning. Those are the DLO stats I'll be watching as this season progresses. As it stands, I'm pretty optimistic about Russell. I think he's got his head on straight, a healthy left knee and a bit of a chip on his shoulders. Same with KAT. If those two remain healthy, I expect both to have really good seasons. That's my view right now. But DLO has a lot to prove, as does the rest of this team. So we'll see.
