Timberwolves Roster

[worldK]

Good debate on DLO between Cam and FNG. I've been a DLO skeptic from the time the deal was made last February. But Cam's right about the statistical improvements DLO has shown thus far in his young career. And it's worth noting again that he was an Eastern Conference all-star a couple seasons ago and he's still only 24 years old.

What's generally unsettling about the Wolves generally right now is that there are major questions surrounding all of our most talented young guys. Will KAT ever become a decent defender, consistently hustle and show some leadership? Has DLO finally grown up and will he ever become a decent defender? Will Culver (or Okogie) become a decent perimeter shooter? Is the Beasley we saw in his short stint with the Wolves last season the Beasley we can expect to see going forward? Same question for Juancho? Will Naz Reid continue a linear progression from last season? Does Edwards have the competitive drive and passion for the game necessary to reach his amazing potential? Lots of questions. A few good answers and this team can make the playoffs next season and eventually become a contender.

The biggest key to any real long term success for our team lies with KAT-Dlo-Edwards. If all 3 did what lip wrote. Then we are primed for long term success. Its a superstars league. If those 3 play like what you expect from a number 1 and 2 picks. Then we are set.

[FNG]

Yes, they only played together one game and I'm not going to draw strong conclusions from it, but my recollection of that game was quite negative. I remember a Toronto team that seemed to be just going through the motions, and I remember not having a good feeling about how we looked when our two stars were on the court together. Sure enough, they combined for 11 turnovers, and Russell was a disappointing -22... a bad sign from a high-scoring star who has shown poor on/off numbers during his career and whose tendency to turn the ball over seems to be getting worse rather than better as his career progresses.

So, I have to disagree here. I've debated in D'Angelo Russell's favor time and time again and comments like this are a big part of the reason. I don't think he gets a fair shake on this board at times.

Russell scored 22 points on 7-12 shooting from the floor and 4-5 from three that game. He made all four of his free throws. He dropped five assists to go along with an unsightly six turnovers -- not a great ratio. However, you'll take a .799 TS% from your lead guard any game of the week. And while you noted his +/- was -22 you didn't mention that his BPM was 1.9. Judging by the rest of the Wolves as well as the Raptors, I'd say that Russell wasn't the issue in that game -- far from it. Malik Beasley, Josh Okogie, and James Johnson were significantly outplayed by OG Anunobi, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Patrick McCaw. The supporting cast got beat badly.

Also, Russell's TOV% the last three years of 16.8, 13.6, and 13.6 point him to be trending in the right direction, not wrong. His 13.6 TOV% in 2019-20 was better than Ben Simmons, Ricky Rubio, Ja Morant, Trae Young, Kyle Lowry, LeBron James, Devin Booker, Luka Doncic, Jrue Holiday, James Harden, Chris Paul, and Malcolm Brogdon... Basically, what I'm saying is that Russell takes care of the ball better than a lot of his peers, at least statistically.

In no way, shape, or form is Russell a perfect player -- not even close, really -- but I think he's a lot better than how you view him, FNG.

I kind of thought this board would be divided about D-Lo's potential. I suspect there are some here that see him as at least close to a perennial all-star, and others who question whether he can contribute to a winning team. Obviously I hope you and others that really like D-Lo end up being correct, but I still have my doubts. My history with Russell goes back to an overtime game against the Gophers where he scored about 30 to lead OSU to victory. But despite his brilliant offense, what impressed me most that day was his defense- or at least his defensive potential. In the first half and again in overtime, Thad Matta put him on whoever seemed to be hottest for the Gophers, and he consistently shut his man down. But a different player showed up in the second half- he seemed lackadaisical on defense, and an undermanned Gopher team snuck back into the game and sent it to overtime.

But despite the 2nd half lapse, I became a Russell fan that day. While I still thought Towns should be the first pick in the draft, I thought Russell (but not Okafor) should at least be in the conversation. Like this year, I debated with friends whether a trade down to eventually grab Russell might not be a bad way to go. But whatever I saw on defense that day has been completely absent during his NBA career (oddly, I also viewed Towns as potentially a defensive star at Kentucky, and he too has been a disappointment on D). Russell clearly has the tools to be a great defender because I saw it in person, so it must be a lack of interest that holds him back. Since this is also a risk factor for Edwards and KAT also struggles on defense, the potential for three guys who mostly focus on offense being in our starting lineup is concerning to me.

As for turnovers, I wonder if Russell's turnover percentage is better when he plays the 2 and has a real point guard on the floor with him. Maybe somebody here knows how to evaluate his stats as a PG vs. his stats as a SG. I still think Rubio wasn't brought here to come off the bench- he hasn't begun a game on the bench since 2012, and he's coming off one of his best seasons. My hope for this team is that Ricky starts and plays at least 32 minutes- I think he can help D-Lo a lot on both ends of the court, and will also be very helpful at both ends for KAT and Edwards.

[Monster]

I was just thinking about what would need to happen to really elevate the future outlook of this Wolves roster. The obvious answers to that rhetorical question are the continued development of Karl-Anthony Towns and D'Angelo Russell as well as the ascent of first overall pick Anthony Edwards. Both would be major in the Wolves' chances of contending. There is no doubt about that. Most of us would agree that there is incredible room for improvement for all three because of their high talent level and physical gifts.

But the real piece that can change everything for the Wolves is Jarrett Culver. Oddly enough, I think I'm becoming the most optimistic poster here in regards to Culver. Who saw that one coming? Everyone forget your impressions of him through his rookie season. I know his first year was a big disappointment. Wipe the slate clean for a second. Now, think about the "what if" when it comes to him -- if Culver figures it out and becomes what he was projected to be just a year ago. That changes everything for Minnesota whether it's as a valuable role player in between a couple stars or as a trade chip to bring in another star.

Culver has the tools and the talent to be a versatile wing defender that can guard 1-3 affectively. He has the court vision and handle to be a secondary ball-handler in the half-court as well as grab-and-go threat in transition.

He also has some history that suggests his three-point shot is capable of a bounce back next year. He was a 38.2 percent shooter from deep his freshman year in legitimate minutes as a role player. Obviously, we know his shooting regressed his sophomore season with a greater role in the offense, but bear with me. We're establishing some sense of a track record of acceptable shooting ability. The first three months of his rookie year he shot a miserable 27-108 (25-percent) in 31 games. That's not going to get the job done at all. However, the following three months of his rookie year he shot 39-113 (34.5-percent) in 32 games. I'm not saying Culver's the next Klay Thompson or anything comparable, but making 1.2 3P per game on 3.5 3PA in what was essentially the second half of the season isn't terrible. If he's able to build off of that second half and approach the 35 or 36-percent mark, then we really do have value with him as he provides complimentary skills that fit the team needs.

Or forget that his rookie season even happened. He's a 6'7", 194-pound wing with a 6'8" wingspan, 45-inch vertical, and solid fundamentals on the defensive end. He's not even 22-years old yet. I'm not ready to completely rule out Culver as an important part of this franchise. He feels like rotten goods because of his draft slot, the trade up, and other players that outperformed him last year, but these kids develop over time. He could be a key player to watch this upcoming season as his growth could significantly change this franchise's future for the better.

I agree completely, Cam. I was actually going to write up a similar post before reading yours.

Sometimes we get caught up in measurements. Is anyone worried about Tyler Herro's 6'3" raptor arm wingspan now? Iggy was a guy that played LeBron well for a period and now often guards PFs. His measurements? 6'5.75" Barefoot 6'11.5" wingspan. Jarrett Culver 6'5.25" Barefoot 6.'9.5" wingspan. Yes there was also a weight difference When they were drafted but the idea that Culver simply isn't big enough to play SF doesn't add up to me. Would it be more advantageous to have him have that size at SG? Sure. It would be even better if he became a PG! :) There have been a number of guys that were for sure undersized that were very good defenders. I could see Okogie becoming one of those guys. Would I like to see a guy with more length And strength at SF? Yes but I think this roster has guys they can certainly play there and it won't be some sort of massive liability this team has a lot of ability to do a lot of switching if they want to do so.

[thedoper]

I was just thinking about what would need to happen to really elevate the future outlook of this Wolves roster. The obvious answers to that rhetorical question are the continued development of Karl-Anthony Towns and D'Angelo Russell as well as the ascent of first overall pick Anthony Edwards. Both would be major in the Wolves' chances of contending. There is no doubt about that. Most of us would agree that there is incredible room for improvement for all three because of their high talent level and physical gifts.

But the real piece that can change everything for the Wolves is Jarrett Culver. Oddly enough, I think I'm becoming the most optimistic poster here in regards to Culver. Who saw that one coming? Everyone forget your impressions of him through his rookie season. I know his first year was a big disappointment. Wipe the slate clean for a second. Now, think about the "what if" when it comes to him -- if Culver figures it out and becomes what he was projected to be just a year ago. That changes everything for Minnesota whether it's as a valuable role player in between a couple stars or as a trade chip to bring in another star.

Culver has the tools and the talent to be a versatile wing defender that can guard 1-3 affectively. He has the court vision and handle to be a secondary ball-handler in the half-court as well as grab-and-go threat in transition.

He also has some history that suggests his three-point shot is capable of a bounce back next year. He was a 38.2 percent shooter from deep his freshman year in legitimate minutes as a role player. Obviously, we know his shooting regressed his sophomore season with a greater role in the offense, but bear with me. We're establishing some sense of a track record of acceptable shooting ability. The first three months of his rookie year he shot a miserable 27-108 (25-percent) in 31 games. That's not going to get the job done at all. However, the following three months of his rookie year he shot 39-113 (34.5-percent) in 32 games. I'm not saying Culver's the next Klay Thompson or anything comparable, but making 1.2 3P per game on 3.5 3PA in what was essentially the second half of the season isn't terrible. If he's able to build off of that second half and approach the 35 or 36-percent mark, then we really do have value with him as he provides complimentary skills that fit the team needs.

Or forget that his rookie season even happened. He's a 6'7", 194-pound wing with a 6'8" wingspan, 45-inch vertical, and solid fundamentals on the defensive end. He's not even 22-years old yet. I'm not ready to completely rule out Culver as an important part of this franchise. He feels like rotten goods because of his draft slot, the trade up, and other players that outperformed him last year, but these kids develop over time. He could be a key player to watch this upcoming season as his growth could significantly change this franchise's future for the better.

The only direction Culver can go is up. I do think a lot of his issues seemed to be about confidence. I've never seen a guy look as timid as he did in the first half of the year. So that does give me some hope that he can build on successes and regulate.

On fundamentals, he moves much better than I anticipated on both sides of the ball. He's got active hands on D and a nose for the ball which is nice. I dont see a real plus defender without some more strength and aggressiveness but both those things are areas players can grow. Im not ready to say he has great command of the game by any means as a facilitator or playmaker. I think that is ok because I dont think he needs to be that on this team. Without tightening up his form, Im not sure the shot ever becomes consistent. How fundamentally poor his form was on his shot was a bit shocking to me last year. Im glad people are optimistic about him, hope he does well. The first season was pretty bad, hope he can forget about it like you suggest and build on his strengths.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

Honestly, size is partly a mental thing.

Seriously!

Obviously, there's a physiological reality to size. Height. Reach. Wingspan. Weight. Muscle mass. These things are physical realities that can't be denied.

Still, the WAY a guy plays, which is largely shaped by the way they see themselves, can really impact their physical presence on the court. A guy who plays all out, throwing his weight around, bodying guys up on D, stretching out their arms, literally increases their physical presence on the court. This is partly because weight x acceleration = force. And it's also partly because guys who do that actually stretch out their wingspan and really make the most of it, while guys who play passive and don't really stretch out their arms actually lose length. Seriously. Try it out. Stand up and put your arms into a relatively casual defensive stance. Make a mental note of how wide you are. Now, get AGGRESSIVE! Stretch your fucking arms out with intensity. Now look. You are literally gaining a couple inches of length and probably putting your hands forward a bit which would also cut down on passing lanes. Plus, that physical aggression also carries an intimidation factor for your opponent. That's why aggressive little dogs can sometimes cower big ones.

Obviously, there's a limit to this. Even Marcus Smart can't guard Shaq or KD. But "playing big" is real and I'd say it probably can slide a guy up a notch (2 to 3, 3 to 4, etc.) in many cases, depending on who we're up against. Unfortunately with KAT and DLO, two of our best guys don't really do that. That's partly why they drafted Edwards this year, to give us more physicality. It remains to be seen whether he can learn to cut out those jumpers and just attack the basket relentlessly. If so, he should live at the line. And defensively, he's definitely got the ability to play most 3s and maybe even a few 4s if he's really engaged and physical on that end. Given our roster, guys like Okogie and especially Culver will really need to step up in that regard this year.

[FNG]

Sometimes we get caught up in measurements. Is anyone worried about Tyler Herro's 6'3" raptor arm wingspan now?
Yes, sometimes we do get too caught up in measurements. A perfect NBA specimen in size and athleticism can still be an awful defender. I find the reverse to be not as true though. Tyler Herro works as hard on defense as anyone I've ever seen, but I don't think anyone sees him as even an average defender. A terrific offensive player, yes- but quite challenged on the defensive end. A guy with a 6'3" wingspan is going to struggle to be a disruptive influence on defense- most who have played the game feel less comfortable shooting with a hand in their face, but Herro's man usually looks unbothered shooting against him. Heck, didn't Herro tie an NBA record for worst plus/minus in an NBA finals game? (granted it was Kobe that he tied!). And his defensive metrics were quite poor his rookie year. He has said he knows he has to improve on defense, and I think he will do everything he can to become the best defensive player he can- I would argue that his incredibly short arms are going to limit his ceiling in defending average-sized SG's. Still a very good offensive player though.

[Lipoli390]

Length matters. But it's one factor. Athleticism, strength, basketball IQ and effort matter as well. Okogie's 7'0 wingspan, strength, 40+ vertical and high octane motor all combine to make him playable at the SF position. Although Culver has a smaller 6'9.5 wingspan than Okogie, Culver is a couple inches taller and has an even higher vertical. Culver also appears to have a high basketball IQ and, although he's not as aggressive as Okogie, he seems to have a high-rev motor. So I can see Culver getting minutes at SF. Culver also has a nice handle and some playmaking ability, so I can see him as a three-position player.

I'm not particularly concerned with what position Culver or Okogie can or should play. And I'm not concerned about their length either. I'm just concerned about their shooting. It's that simple. That's why I'm with Cam in holding out hope for Culver. He checks all the boxes except perimeter shooting to become a really good NBA player. And I think he has the combination of attributes to play three positions, although SG seems optimal for him given his size.

[Monster]

Sometimes we get caught up in measurements. Is anyone worried about Tyler Herro's 6'3" raptor arm wingspan now?
Yes, sometimes we do get too caught up in measurements. A perfect NBA specimen in size and athleticism can still be an awful defender. I find the reverse to be not as true though. Tyler Herro works as hard on defense as anyone I've ever seen, but I don't think anyone sees him as even an average defender. A terrific offensive player, yes- but quite challenged on the defensive end. A guy with a 6'3" wingspan is going to struggle to be a disruptive influence on defense- most who have played the game feel less comfortable shooting with a hand in their face, but Herro's man usually looks unbothered shooting against him. Heck, didn't Herro tie an NBA record for worst plus/minus in an NBA finals game? (granted it was Kobe that he tied!). And his defensive metrics were quite poor his rookie year. He has said he knows he has to improve on defense, and I think he will do everything he can to become the best defensive player he can- I would argue that his incredibly short arms are going to limit his ceiling in defending average-sized SG's. Still a very good offensive player though.

I'm curious what defensive metrics you were looking at when it comes to Herro.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I think the one common theme with most elite defenders is they either have a long wingspan relative to their position and/or are built like a rock. It's tough to have short arms AND a slight frame and be a good defender. That doesn't mean you can't still work hard at it (see Steph Curry). But that kind of build will never make an NBA all-defensive team.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I agree Culver could be a key, but we say that every year about multiple Timberwolves and it's always the same theme.....If only he could hit 35% or more of his 3's! My God, we more than any other franchise have the "he's a 3-point shot away from being really good!" disease. I don't have enough fingers and toes to count all the damn players that have come through here with that tagline.