Simmons Prediction Thread

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

And the team that benefitted from that '18-'19 year soon had no use for him. Kind of a recurring theme.

Hmm... re-sign D'Angelo Russell, OR sign Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant... Tough call. Hard to say they let Russell walk because they "had no use for him" when there's a package deal of All-NBA players replacing him. Damn context...

[Lipoli390]

Think about how you guys are talking about Jaden McDaniels after the OKAY rookie year he had. He's probably more potential than production at this point.

Now think about how the Sacramento Kings are probably talking about Tyrese Haliburton, who by all means showed way more promise and production last year. Think about how the Toronto Raptors probably discuss OG Anunoby. The same goes for the Cleveland Cavaliers and Darius Garland and maybe Collin Sexton.

If you wouldn't include McDaniels in a trade for Ben Simmons -- or rather you don't think the Wolves should -- then why would these other teams make their objectively superior young talent available either?

This just comes back to what I've preached on here far too many times. The Philadelphia Sixers are going to trade Simmons for far less than what's expected.

Cam - The report you posted a while ago indicated that Toronto offered VanVleet and Anunoby and at least one future 1st-round pick as I recall for Simmons, but Morey turn them down. Do you think Toronto wouldn't offer that again? That same report indicated that the Kings offered Haliburton and Barnes, but we now see reports that Haliburton is off the table. Do you think Ben's market value is such that the Kings wouldn't make that offer again or possibly increase it to Haliburton and Hield? I agree that Simmons' market value isn't commensurate with his talent right now. What's your sense of what his value is right now as measured by what you think other teams would be willing to offer for him?

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Think about how you guys are talking about Jaden McDaniels after the OKAY rookie year he had. He's probably more potential than production at this point.

Now think about how the Sacramento Kings are probably talking about Tyrese Haliburton, who by all means showed way more promise and production last year. Think about how the Toronto Raptors probably discuss OG Anunoby. The same goes for the Cleveland Cavaliers and Darius Garland and maybe Collin Sexton.

If you wouldn't include McDaniels in a trade for Ben Simmons -- or rather you don't think the Wolves should -- then why would these other teams make their objectively superior young talent available either?

This just comes back to what I've preached on here far too many times. The Philadelphia Sixers are going to trade Simmons for far less than what's expected.

Cam - The report you posted a while ago indicated that Toronto offered VanVleet and Anunoby and at least one future 1st-round pick as I recall for Simmons, but Morey turn them down. Do you think Toronto wouldn't offer that again? That same report indicated that the Kings offered Haliburton and Barnes, but we now see reports that Haliburton is off the table. Do you think Ben's market value is such that the Kings wouldn't make that offer again or possibly increase it to Haliburton and Hield? I agree that Simmons' market value isn't commensurate with his talent right now. What's your sense of what his value is right now as measured by what you think other teams would be willing to offer for him?

I think it's entirely possible that those teams initially offered those packages that the rumors I posted indicated, but those were also earlier in the summer around the draft and before free agency commenced. Teams have made other moves since then that could change how they operate. Not to mention, Philadelphia either flat out rejected those offers or countered with a proposal that was absolutely absurd.

The Sixers asked Golden State for Andrew Wiggins, James Wiseman, the No. 7 pick, the No. 14 pick and two future first-rounders.

The Sixers asked San Antonio for four first-round picks, three first-round pick swaps, and a young player -- perhaps Keldon Johnson?

The Sixers asked Toronto for Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, and the No. 4 overall pick.

I think at some point those kinds of ridiculous offers turn front offices away from even trying to meet in the middle and they focus elsewhere. It's like the guy in your fantasy football league that is willing to trade you Christian McCaffrey for DeAndre Hopkins, Rob Gronkowski, Alvin Kamara, and Justin Herbert. Eventually, you just don't even want to make a trade with the guy. That's a very simplified comparison, but I hope the point is getting across.

We had reporting earlier this month that both Sacramento and Toronto hadn't been in contact with Philadelphia in multiple weeks. I find that to be rather telling. It doesn't mean those teams are completely out of the picture, but rather there might be some very real roadblocks that don't seem to be budging -- specifically with the Kings' reluctance to include De'Aaron Fox or Tyrese Haliburton in trade packages moving forward.

Add all of this up and you have a very diluted market for Ben Simmons. I'd bet that most teams are more focused on the roster they've assembled and the start of the regular season than they are in trying to make a last minute splash, which is another factor against Daryl Morey in this whole process.

[FNG]

Can you name a championship team that has a membership of their big three that's just for defense? Asking for a friend

In today's NBA I mean

Draymond Green is pretty close. And I do think the fact that Simmons can handle the ball, find open guys, and finish efficiently around the paint counts for something on offense.

Yeah, cpq's suggestion that Simmons is "just for defense" doesn't jive with the stats. I think we can all agree that Simmons is a poor free throw shooter and seldom takes a shot beyond 10 feet...those are palpable flaws. But /ffense is so much more than that, and Ben's stats last season stack up nicely against our guys in many offensive areas:

Assists per game: 6.9, more than any Timberwolf
Offensive rebounds per game: 1.6, only KAT and Vando had more
Total rebounds per game: 7.2, only KAT had more
TS%: 58.4%, only KAT, Naz and Vando were better
ORtg: 114, again only KAT, Naz and Vando were better
Assist to Turnover ratio: 2.3 to 1, only Rubio and JMac were better

That's a lot of important offensive categories where Simmons would have led the Wolves or been in the top 4 last season. And it should be noted that in each of these 6 categories his stats were better than Dlo, Ant and Beasley...3 guys we're agonizing about maybe having to give up in exchange for the best defensive player in the league!

So yeah, if 3-point and free throw shooting are the only offensive stats that matter, Simmons would be considered "just for defense"...and so would Giannis. But I would guess most of us would say there's more to offense than just those two things.

Missing my point. He is Elite at defense. Very good at offense because of major holes. Also not sure he has the mindset needed to be a star. Having said that I'd love to have him on the team and think he would be an amazing add to the team. Just not willing to sell the farm (McDaniels, dlo, Beasley and 4 1sts) for him. Trying to make this board think a little. Way too much group think happening and way too much grass is greener. This is coming from someone who without hindsight would have drafted so many people you guys talk about that out inept leadership passed on

Ah, then we mostly agree. cpq...Simmons is elite on defense and very good on offense. But yeah, it's fair to question his mindset when we assess the price tag for bringing him in. I'm clearly on the more aggressive end of that argument because I think, like most fans, we tend to overvalue our own players. I'm just not happy about going into the season with a largely unchanged roster that produced 23 wins last year. But I'm resigned to the fact that is probably what will happen, so I'm back in my usual state of mind of hoping for the miracle that finally makes this a winning team.

[cpg29]

Can you name a championship team that has a membership of their big three that's just for defense? Asking for a friend[/quote

In today's NBA I mean

Draymond Green is pretty close. And I do think the fact that Simmons can handle the ball, find open guys, and finish efficiently around the paint counts for something on offense.

Yeah, cpq's suggestion that Simmons is "just for defense" doesn't jive with the stats. I think we can all agree that Simmons is a poor free throw shooter and seldom takes a shot beyond 10 feet...those are palpable flaws. But /ffense is so much more than that, and Ben's stats last season stack up nicely against our guys in many offensive areas:

Assists per game: 6.9, more than any Timberwolf
Offensive rebounds per game: 1.6, only KAT and Vando had more
Total rebounds per game: 7.2, only KAT had more
TS%: 58.4%, only KAT, Naz and Vando were better
ORtg: 114, again only KAT, Naz and Vando were better
Assist to Turnover ratio: 2.3 to 1, only Rubio and JMac were better

That's a lot of important offensive categories where Simmons would have led the Wolves or been in the top 4 last season. And it should be noted that in each of these 6 categories his stats were better than Dlo, Ant and Beasley...3 guys we're agonizing about maybe having to give up in exchange for the best defensive player in the league!

So yeah, if 3-point and free throw shooting are the only offensive stats that matter, Simmons would be considered "just for defense"...and so would Giannis. But I would guess most of us would say there's more to offense than just those two things.

Missing my point. He is Elite at defense. Very good at offense because of major holes. Also not sure he has the mindset needed to be a star. Having said that I'd love to have him on the team and think he would be an amazing add to the team. Just not willing to sell the farm (McDaniels, dlo, Beasley and 4 1sts) for him. Trying to make this board think a little. Way too much group think happening and way too much grass is greener. This is coming from someone who without hindsight would have drafted so many people you guys talk about that out inept leadership passed on

Ah, then we mostly agree. cpq...Simmons is elite on defense and very good on offense. But yeah, it's fair to question his mindset when we assess the price tag for bringing him in. I'm clearly on the more aggressive end of that argument because I think, like most fans, we tend to overvalue our own players. I'm just not happy about going into the season with a largely unchanged roster that produced 23 wins last year. But I'm resigned to the fact that is probably what will happen, so I'm back in my usual state of mind of hoping for the miracle that finally makes this a winning team.

Yeah I hear you. I guess I'm optimistic we will make the playoffs (like 6-8 range) because of the following:

-KAT and Dlo were hurt much of the year and didn't play much together. When they did play together we had a winning record.
-Ant is a beast and he grew two inches over the off season. I look for a big step forward from him.
-You already know I'm high on McDaniels. I expect him to take a solid step forward as well.
-we started the year last year without training camp and with a coach who had no business coaching anything other than a JV high school team at a bad program. Finch seems like the real deal.
-Bev and prince are sneaky good pickups. If bev can stay healthy we would have a guard in the rotation who can contain. Lots of bad things about our defense stem from our guard play on d. Supposedly prince has been playing hurt the last couple years. If you believe he is healthy, we might get more than three pint shooting from him off the bench.
-Balmaro is intriguing. The competition in Europe is way better than it used to be. Look at the Olympics for example. Not sure what we have in him, but would be surprised if he works his way into the rotation.
-DLO played hurt the beginning of the year. It looked like finch had him bought into defense when he came back. I think he had him come of the bench to challenge him to become a more complete player. He was still below average don't get me wrong, but his d looked much better the end of the year
-I'm a big Naz fan. He still has upside. Looking for a step forward out of him.
-glen is on his way out. There is a light at the end of the tunnel there :)
-KAT and DLO watched their boy almost win a championship. Hopefully that motivated them to step up more this year and put the work in. They still have upside.
-Beasley is much better suited to be a 6th max. Could be a 6th man of the year candidate IMO.

So yeah, I don't think it's fair to say we have the same team we had last year.

[Lipoli390]

Cpg29 - I think you hit the nail on the head with your analysis of why there is good reason to be optimistic about the Wolves' prospects this next season.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I'll add another minor prediction. Patrick Beverley will not be included in any Ben Simmons trade. He fits what the Wolves are building right now and what they would have after acquiring Simmons. It'll either be a deal structured around Malik Beasley, Taurean Prince, and draft picks, or D'Angelo Russell and draft picks, but Beverley will play for Minnesota regardless.

[Lipoli390]

I'll add another minor prediction. Patrick Beverley will not be included in any Ben Simmons trade. He fits what the Wolves are building right now and what they would have after acquiring Simmons. It'll either be a deal structured around Malik Beasley, Taurean Prince, and draft picks, or D'Angelo Russell and draft picks, but Beverley will play for Minnesota regardless.

I agree with you on this, Cam. I think Rosas is ready to part with up to 4 future 1st-round picks through 2029 along with draft swaps and either Beasley or Russell to get Simmons. We've read that KAT and Edwards are entirely off the table. I tend to think that Beverley and McDaniels are almost entirely off the table. And I think Rosas will give up more picks or reduce protections on those picks before he'll give up Beverley or McDaniels.

[Lipoli390]

Michael Scotto: Timberwolves guard Patrick Beverley: "I'm just trying to win. I've made the playoffs every year since I've been in the NBA, and I don't expect that to change." Wolves exec Gersson Rosas: "It's hard to get an acquisition where you pick up a guy that can change the whole defense." pic.twitter.com/BoNqEffqPJ - via Twitter MikeAScotto

Gersson's comment supports Cam's point about Beverley not being included in any possible Wolves trade for Simmons. It's clear that Rosas considers Beverley a key acquisition for this team. Yes, Rosas would certainly view Simmons as a gigantic get for the Wolves, but I think there are certain players in addition to KAT and Edwards who Rosas won't include any deal. I think Rosas would include McDaniels before he'd include Beverley and think he's very reluctant to include McDaniels.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

If I'm Philly and in win-now mode, I insist on PBev if the deal is Beasley and picks. If it's DLO, he probably doesn't have to be included. You can't lose a major ball handler in Simmons and not get something back to help fill that void.