Timberwolves Draft Prospect Analysis Thread

[Monster]

We have sucked as a franchise because we never develop second rounders and unsigned free agents. Look at Raptors rotation players:
Gasol-2nd Round
Danny Green-2nd Round
Kyle Lowry-Late 1st (24)
Pablo Siakam-Late 1st (27)
Serge Ibaka-late 1st (24)
Kawai-15th
Vanvleet-unsigned free agent
Norman Powell-2nd Round

Not a single lottery pick and Toronto is champs. Only Kawhi was even a mid first rounder. I hope our new guys can develop talent. That's what we'll need to do if we ever want to contend for a title.

I mean how many guys did they really develop though.

Gasol: no
Green: no
Lowry: sort of but took off with Adelman
Siakam: yes
Ibaka: no
Kawhi: no
FVV: Yep
Powell: yep

I think you missed my main point. I am saying that a team of non-lottery picks can win a title, not that Toronto is super amazing at developing talent (although they are pretty good at it, but not to the Spurs level). To me it was just a fun observation I wanted to share as I don't know any other championship teams that didn't have a single lottery pick in their rotation. I didn't see this article until after posting, but it made the same point I did (https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2019/5/30/18642766/raptors-trade-draft-history-masai-ujiri-nba-finals-2019-kawhi-leonard-demar-derozan)

KG4ever - I understood you point and agree. It's definitely an interesting observation. As it turns out, Kawhi should have been the top pick in his draft class instead of #15. And Lowry should have been a top 10 pick (maybe top 5) rather than #24. In Kawhi's case, it was apparent almost immediately that he should have been a high lottery pick. In Lowry's case, it took until his 5th season before it was apparent that he was an all star caliber player who should have been a top 10 pick in his draft class.

The Raptors are rare in winning an NBA championship without any lottery picks on their roster. But there have been a number of other championship teams (or teams who made it to NBA finals) who were built in whole or part around star players who were lottery picks outside the top 5, including the following:

WARRIORS
Steph Curry - #7
Klay Thompson - #11
Draymond Green - #35
Iggy - #9

MAVS
Dirk Nowitzki - #9

JAZZ (80s/90s)
Karl Malone #13
John Stockton #16

ROCKETS (90s)
Clyde Drexler #14 (key to one of Houston's two championships with Hakeem)

SPURS
Tony Parker #28
Manu Ginobili #57
Kobe Bryant #13
Kawhi #15

Then there are a number of contenders today like Portland and Denver who are build around allstars drafted outside the top 3. Lillard #6, McCollum #10, Jamal Murray #7, Jokic #41.

Obviously, I'd rather have a top 5 pick in any draft, the higher the better. But good organizations often identify and draft players outside the top 5 (even outside the top10) who become allstars or stars around whom they build championship contenders. It's about time the Wolves did the same.

Lip that Spurs team with Kobe should have won way more titles than they did.

[Lipoli390]

Whoops. Lol. Kobe with the Lakers. The Spurs didn't need him. :)

[MikeAz [enjin:6636981]]

This article in Medium raves about Brandon Clarke.

https://medium.com/sportsraid/brandon-clarke-defense-alone-worth-top-five-pick-2019-nba-draft-gonzaga-basketball-e056f747e100

"Ideally Clarke will play next to one of the increasing number of NBA centers with shooting ability. Think about pairing him with someone like Karl-Anthony Towns or Nikola Jokic or LaMarcus Aldridge. Those guys will provide the shot gravity and spacing that Clarke lacks, and he'll feast in the space they leave him in the paint while cleaning up for them defensively on the other end."

I could live with him at 11.

[crazy-canuck [enjin:18955461]]

New ESPN insider mock has us taking little @11 and Sirvydis@ 43.

[Lipoli390]

New ESPN insider mock has us taking little @11 and Sirvydis@ 43.

I've seen a number of mocks with us taking Little. I think ESPN has had that for a while. I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with him. Personally, I think it would be a mistake to take either Little or White at #11.

Last night I watched a replay of the North Carolina-Duke game when Zion hurt his knee and ripped through his shoe. I advise anyone who is high on either Little or White to watch that game. It is a good example of why I'd stay away from both of them. Little is a great athlete with really good length and a good motor. But he seems to have very poor instincts. His ballhandling falls far short of the standard for an NBA wing. He strikes me as a guy who will never become an elite player in spite of some impressive physical attributes and a reputedly high motor. As for White, his ballhandling isn't what it needs to be for an NBA point guard. As a result he turns the ball over fall to much by just getting stripped of the ball. Moreover, he has only one speed and no shiftiness to his game. He's quick, but not explosive off the floor. And he has a really low release on his shot. I saw all these significant flaws in Little and White on multiple occasions, but the Duke game was a particularly good example.

Neither player had college stats that overcome their significant flaws that show up in the eye test. Little couldn't get much playing time and didn't put up any eye-popping numbers in his limited minutes. White's calling card is scoring, but his shooting percentages weren't impressive - 42.3% FG and 35.3% on 3-pointers. Nor did he get to the line much. Defensively, I wasn't impressed by him in any of the games I watched him play and the fact that he only had 1.1 steals per game casts further doubt on his defensive chops. Finally, I still don't understand reviews that refer to his length as a major asset. His 8'1.5 overhead reach and 6'5 wingspan aren't exceptional for an NBA PG by any stretch.

I continue to believe that of the players likely to be available at #11, the Wolves should focus on Alexander-Walker, Nic Claxton and Romeo Langford. Those are the guys I see having high upside and a good chance of blossoming in the NBA. I think Langford and Claxton have particularly high upsides. The Wolves could probably trade down and get any of those three. I'd still like to see the Wolves swap #11 for two of the Celtics' 1st round picks.

Trading up would be appealing if the Wolves could end up with Darius Garland, but it depends on how much the Wolves need to give up to get him. I suspect that a lot of teams will be making offers to the Pelicans at #4 for the purpose of getting Garland. I just don't think the Wolves have assets it would take to get the #4 pick from the Pelicans. Covington? Saric? I don't see the Pelicans being interested in either one, although I suppose Saric might be of interest. They might be interested in Okogie, but I wouldn't give up Okogie and #11 for #4. We're at a point where we need to hold onto the little young high-upside talent we have while adding more.

[Monster]

New ESPN insider mock has us taking little @11 and Sirvydis@ 43.

I've seen a number of mocks with us taking Little. I think ESPN has had that for a while. I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with him. Personally, I think it would be a mistake to take either Little or White at #11.

Last night I watched a replay of the North Carolina-Duke game when Zion hurt his knee and ripped through his shoe. I advise anyone who is high on either Little or White to watch that game. It is a good example of why I'd stay away from both of them. Little is a great athlete with really good length and a good motor. But he seems to have very poor instincts. His ballhandling falls far short of the standard for an NBA wing. He strikes me as a guy who will never become an elite player in spite of some impressive physical attributes and a reputedly high motor. As for White, his ballhandling isn't what it needs to be for an NBA point guard. As a result he turns the ball over fall to much by just getting stripped of the ball. Moreover, he has only one speed and no shiftiness to his game. He's quick, but not explosive off the floor. And he has a really low release on his shot. I saw all these significant flaws in Little and White on multiple occasions, but the Duke game was a particularly good example.

Neither player had college stats that overcome their significant flaws that show up in the eye test. Little couldn't get much playing time and didn't put up any eye-popping numbers in his limited minutes. White's calling card is scoring, but his shooting percentages weren't impressive - 42.3% FG and 35.3% on 3-pointers. Nor did he get to the line much. Defensively, I wasn't impressed by him in any of the games I watched him play and the fact that he only had 1.1 steals per game casts further doubt on his defensive chops. Finally, I still don't understand reviews that refer to his length as a major asset. His 8'1.5 overhead reach and 6'5 wingspan aren't exceptional for an NBA PG by any stretch.

I continue to believe that of the players likely to be available at #11, the Wolves should focus on Alexander-Walker, Nic Claxton and Romeo Langford. Those are the guys I see having high upside and a good chance of blossoming in the NBA. I think Langford and Claxton have particularly high upsides. The Wolves could probably trade down and get any of those three. I'd still like to see the Wolves swap #11 for two of the Celtics' 1st round picks.

Trading up would be appealing if the Wolves could end up with Darius Garland, but it depends on how much the Wolves need to give up to get him. I suspect that a lot of teams will be making offers to the Pelicans at #4 for the purpose of getting Garland. I just don't think the Wolves have assets it would take to get the #4 pick from the Pelicans. Covington? Saric? I don't see the Pelicans being interested in either one, although I suppose Saric might be of interest. They might be interested in Okogie, but I wouldn't give up Okogie and #11 for #4. We're at a point where we need to hold onto the little young high-upside talent we have while adding more.

My biggest issue with White is his defense. He competes but he looked like LaVine at times being overpowered and clueless. If he can stick as a PG he has plenty of physical gifts. There is legit questions about him. I don't think he is a boom or bust guy he will probably at least be a bench scorer. That's not a bad thing but I'm not sure about moving up to get him although I still do like him overall.

As for Little the reason I won't mind if we end up with him is all the draft reports I have heard rate him as a guy that is an absolutely great kid with a motor. His floor is a Wes Johnson type that's less maddening. Yes we are looking at upside but let's not lose sight of the floor either. The knocks on Little are his offensive instincts and while a lot of people think his shooting will come around to some extent nobody considered him a natural shooter. Lets remember his per 36 numbers would be 19/9. Adding a defensive rebounding wing with length and girth that actually plays hard isn't the worst thing and yes he has flaws. He can handle the ball some the question is whether he can be a guy that can be a creator. One draft podcast said they thought he would get the most out of whatever talent he has. Let's also remember that just because you don't get an all star level with your picks means they are a failure. Having guys with perceived potential allow you to make deals for better players.

As someone else said in this thread if we end up with Clarke I wouldn't be too sad with that pick. I'm honestly not sure who I would really get upset about us drafting at this point.

[crazy-canuck [enjin:18955461]]

Among all the guys in our range, I think drafting rui would upset me the most.

[Lipoli390]

New ESPN insider mock has us taking little @11 and Sirvydis@ 43.

I've seen a number of mocks with us taking Little. I think ESPN has had that for a while. I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with him. Personally, I think it would be a mistake to take either Little or White at #11.

Last night I watched a replay of the North Carolina-Duke game when Zion hurt his knee and ripped through his shoe. I advise anyone who is high on either Little or White to watch that game. It is a good example of why I'd stay away from both of them. Little is a great athlete with really good length and a good motor. But he seems to have very poor instincts. His ballhandling falls far short of the standard for an NBA wing. He strikes me as a guy who will never become an elite player in spite of some impressive physical attributes and a reputedly high motor. As for White, his ballhandling isn't what it needs to be for an NBA point guard. As a result he turns the ball over fall to much by just getting stripped of the ball. Moreover, he has only one speed and no shiftiness to his game. He's quick, but not explosive off the floor. And he has a really low release on his shot. I saw all these significant flaws in Little and White on multiple occasions, but the Duke game was a particularly good example.

Neither player had college stats that overcome their significant flaws that show up in the eye test. Little couldn't get much playing time and didn't put up any eye-popping numbers in his limited minutes. White's calling card is scoring, but his shooting percentages weren't impressive - 42.3% FG and 35.3% on 3-pointers. Nor did he get to the line much. Defensively, I wasn't impressed by him in any of the games I watched him play and the fact that he only had 1.1 steals per game casts further doubt on his defensive chops. Finally, I still don't understand reviews that refer to his length as a major asset. His 8'1.5 overhead reach and 6'5 wingspan aren't exceptional for an NBA PG by any stretch.

I continue to believe that of the players likely to be available at #11, the Wolves should focus on Alexander-Walker, Nic Claxton and Romeo Langford. Those are the guys I see having high upside and a good chance of blossoming in the NBA. I think Langford and Claxton have particularly high upsides. The Wolves could probably trade down and get any of those three. I'd still like to see the Wolves swap #11 for two of the Celtics' 1st round picks.

Trading up would be appealing if the Wolves could end up with Darius Garland, but it depends on how much the Wolves need to give up to get him. I suspect that a lot of teams will be making offers to the Pelicans at #4 for the purpose of getting Garland. I just don't think the Wolves have assets it would take to get the #4 pick from the Pelicans. Covington? Saric? I don't see the Pelicans being interested in either one, although I suppose Saric might be of interest. They might be interested in Okogie, but I wouldn't give up Okogie and #11 for #4. We're at a point where we need to hold onto the little young high-upside talent we have while adding more.

My biggest issue with White is his defense. He competes but he looked like LaVine at times being overpowered and clueless. If he can stick as a PG he has plenty of physical gifts. There is legit questions about him. I don't think he is a boom or bust guy he will probably at least be a bench scorer. That's not a bad thing but I'm not sure about moving up to get him although I still do like him overall.

As for Little the reason I won't mind if we end up with him is all the draft reports I have heard rate him as a guy that is an absolutely great kid with a motor. His floor is a Wes Johnson type that's less maddening. Yes we are looking at upside but let's not lose sight of the floor either. The knocks on Little are his offensive instincts and while a lot of people think his shooting will come around to some extent nobody considered him a natural shooter. Lets remember his per 36 numbers would be 19/9. Adding a defensive rebounding wing with length and girth that actually plays hard isn't the worst thing and yes he has flaws. He can handle the ball some the question is whether he can be a guy that can be a creator. One draft podcast said they thought he would get the most out of whatever talent he has. Let's also remember that just because you don't get an all star level with your picks means they are a failure. Having guys with perceived potential allow you to make deals for better players.

As someone else said in this thread if we end up with Clarke I wouldn't be too sad with that pick. I'm honestly not sure who I would really get upset about us drafting at this point.

Nice analysis, Monster. While I think the Wolves need to focus on upside with the #11 pick, you make a good point to not lose sight of a player's floor. I agree that because of his length, athleticism and motor, Little has a decent floor as a potential high energy defender/rebounder off the bench. But I think his poor ballhandling and poor instincts severely limit his upside as an NBA wing. And if we're going to draft another wing, I think it's critical that the player be an excellent ballhandler who can create his own shot off the bounce -- something neither of our current two starting wings, Covington and Wiggins, can do effectively.

Little, however, has enough going for him that I won't be angry if we draft him. If we do, I'll have to trust that the new regime knows what they're doing. I really want to trust the new regime, but I suspect they're still depending on the same group of scouts who sold the two prior regimes on Payne and Patton. Decision-makers at the top are constrained by the information and analysis they get from those below them. I'll be really unhappy if we trade up for White. That would be the sort of mistake I'd expect from our prior regimes.

[Monster]

New ESPN insider mock has us taking little @11 and Sirvydis@ 43.

I've seen a number of mocks with us taking Little. I think ESPN has had that for a while. I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with him. Personally, I think it would be a mistake to take either Little or White at #11.

Last night I watched a replay of the North Carolina-Duke game when Zion hurt his knee and ripped through his shoe. I advise anyone who is high on either Little or White to watch that game. It is a good example of why I'd stay away from both of them. Little is a great athlete with really good length and a good motor. But he seems to have very poor instincts. His ballhandling falls far short of the standard for an NBA wing. He strikes me as a guy who will never become an elite player in spite of some impressive physical attributes and a reputedly high motor. As for White, his ballhandling isn't what it needs to be for an NBA point guard. As a result he turns the ball over fall to much by just getting stripped of the ball. Moreover, he has only one speed and no shiftiness to his game. He's quick, but not explosive off the floor. And he has a really low release on his shot. I saw all these significant flaws in Little and White on multiple occasions, but the Duke game was a particularly good example.

Neither player had college stats that overcome their significant flaws that show up in the eye test. Little couldn't get much playing time and didn't put up any eye-popping numbers in his limited minutes. White's calling card is scoring, but his shooting percentages weren't impressive - 42.3% FG and 35.3% on 3-pointers. Nor did he get to the line much. Defensively, I wasn't impressed by him in any of the games I watched him play and the fact that he only had 1.1 steals per game casts further doubt on his defensive chops. Finally, I still don't understand reviews that refer to his length as a major asset. His 8'1.5 overhead reach and 6'5 wingspan aren't exceptional for an NBA PG by any stretch.

I continue to believe that of the players likely to be available at #11, the Wolves should focus on Alexander-Walker, Nic Claxton and Romeo Langford. Those are the guys I see having high upside and a good chance of blossoming in the NBA. I think Langford and Claxton have particularly high upsides. The Wolves could probably trade down and get any of those three. I'd still like to see the Wolves swap #11 for two of the Celtics' 1st round picks.

Trading up would be appealing if the Wolves could end up with Darius Garland, but it depends on how much the Wolves need to give up to get him. I suspect that a lot of teams will be making offers to the Pelicans at #4 for the purpose of getting Garland. I just don't think the Wolves have assets it would take to get the #4 pick from the Pelicans. Covington? Saric? I don't see the Pelicans being interested in either one, although I suppose Saric might be of interest. They might be interested in Okogie, but I wouldn't give up Okogie and #11 for #4. We're at a point where we need to hold onto the little young high-upside talent we have while adding more.

My biggest issue with White is his defense. He competes but he looked like LaVine at times being overpowered and clueless. If he can stick as a PG he has plenty of physical gifts. There is legit questions about him. I don't think he is a boom or bust guy he will probably at least be a bench scorer. That's not a bad thing but I'm not sure about moving up to get him although I still do like him overall.

As for Little the reason I won't mind if we end up with him is all the draft reports I have heard rate him as a guy that is an absolutely great kid with a motor. His floor is a Wes Johnson type that's less maddening. Yes we are looking at upside but let's not lose sight of the floor either. The knocks on Little are his offensive instincts and while a lot of people think his shooting will come around to some extent nobody considered him a natural shooter. Lets remember his per 36 numbers would be 19/9. Adding a defensive rebounding wing with length and girth that actually plays hard isn't the worst thing and yes he has flaws. He can handle the ball some the question is whether he can be a guy that can be a creator. One draft podcast said they thought he would get the most out of whatever talent he has. Let's also remember that just because you don't get an all star level with your picks means they are a failure. Having guys with perceived potential allow you to make deals for better players.

As someone else said in this thread if we end up with Clarke I wouldn't be too sad with that pick. I'm honestly not sure who I would really get upset about us drafting at this point.

Nice analysis, Monster. While I think the Wolves need to focus on upside with the #11 pick, you make a good point to not lose sight of a player's floor. I agree that because of his length, athleticism and motor, Little has a decent floor as a potential high energy defender/rebounder off the bench. But I think his poor ballhandling and poor instincts severely limit his upside as an NBA wing. And if we're going to draft another wing, I think it's critical that the player be an excellent ballhandler who can create his own shot off the bounce -- something neither of our current two starting wings, Covington and Wiggins, can do effectively.

Little, however, has enough going for him that I won't be angry if we draft him. If we do, I'll have to trust that the new regime knows what they're doing. I really want to trust the new regime, but I suspect they're still depending on the same group of scouts who sold the two prior regimes on Payne and Patton. Decision-makers at the top are constrained by the information and analysis they get from those below them. I'll be really unhappy if we trade up for White. That would be the sort of mistake I'd expect from our prior regimes.

Lip how many guys in this entire draft are guys that really project as more than secondary ball handlers? You have brought up Langford and I haven't gone too in depth on him but Abe wonders he doesn't use his left hand. To me the bottom line is after the top 10....it's probably Langford NAW who a lot of draft experts (and scouts Seth Davis "FINCH" article just came out this weekend) he isn't really a good enough athlete, shooter or playmaker to be more than a really solid combo guard. I still like him. Porter must have some serious issues because that's basically about the only guy with real shot creator skills that will be available. I'm not saying there won't be some guys that will end up as shot creators but...it's not like drafting Little or a shooter or a big means you are passing on some obvious shot creator guy. Know what I'm saying? This isn't a defense on Little it's just kinda a shrug of the shoulders but not throwing up my hands when it comes to that creation upside. Moving up for White makes some sense depending on the price because the guy looks like he could get buckets. I think there is a path for him to actually be a guy that can make plays. I'm not sure that is who the Wolves are actually looking to move up for though. Every front office I think does quite a bit of exploring options but ai feel REALLY confident that this front office is exploring options with an actual open mind and they are used to doing that. It's a different approach even if they are getting some of the same info you are worried about. Personally I think they have brought in enough guys that I'm not as worried about them being held back that much by old scouts you are worried about.

[Lipoli390]

Monster - We just disagree on White. I don't think he'll be a good NBA player -- certainly not good enough to trade up for, giving up assets in addition to our #11 pick. Langford is an excellent ballhandler. His limitation is that he nearly always goes right and finishes with his right hand. But that's not a reflection on his ballhandling. He seems very comfortable and smooth dribbling with both hands. I have three concerns with Langford. First, is his tendency to always go right. That's very fixable. Second, is his 3-point shooting percentage. I cut him some slack on that based on his broken hand nearly all season. And he shot a ver respectable 47% from the field overall. Third, it what's been described as his somewhat passive nature. That's the concern that troubles me the most. He has great length with a 6'11 wingspan and 8'7 overhead reach. And watching him play, he looks so smooth and fluid. My eye test tells me he has huge NBA upside. Porter is another other guy who my eye test tells me is a potentially elite NBA wing. But yes, that guy must have serious character issues. Another guys who really impresses me based on my eye test is Nic Claxton.

My eye test put Brandon Roy #1 on my draft board years ago. And it (along with his rebounding stats) put John Collins high on my board a couple years ago. That same eye test is telling me that Langford, Porter and Claxton have huge NBA upside. That same eye test has me less than enthusiastic about White and Little.