longstrangetrip wrote:Almost all the salary cap discussion here has centered on 2017-8, and how much cap we may have to sign a key free agent. We do have more room than most other teams this offseason, but I can assure you that Leyden and Thibs are taking a much longer view than that...they are focused on 2019-20, when they expect that they will have to pay each of the Big Three a max contract (and I think most of us here would be surprised if any of the three of them gets less than the maximum on their next contract). I'm certain the Wolves' brass is well aware that adding a medium to high priced free agent this year will force the team well into the luxury tax in 2019-20 if they intend to keep all of the Big (now) 4. And while I have heard some talk that the ownership group is not opposed to wading slightly into lux tax land is there is a chance of a championship, they are not going to do a "Dan Gilbert" and pay an absurd amount of lux tax (without even a championship). Here are the numbers:
The 2017-8 cap is now expected to be $99 million (with the lux tax at $119 million). 2018-9 isn't expected to increase much and assuming a 5 % bump in 2019-20, the cap and lux tax that year will be $104 million and $124 million. Let's also say the Wolves target a guy this year like Milsap or Lowry this offseason, and they are able to sign them through 2020 for $25 million (I'm saying $25 million because Lowry has said he would take a sub-max to go to a potential champion). Here's the (not so pretty) picture:
Butler: 31.2
Wig 26
KAT 26
New FA 25
That's $108.2 from just 4 players...already over the cap with 11 more players to play. The only other player under contract in 2019-20 would be Gorgui, and his $16.2 would put the Wolves into the luxury tax with still 10 players to play...not a viable situation for any ownership group not led by a crazy man like Dan Gilbert. Now, I recognize they would probably unload Gorgui's contract, but they would still have to pay 11 more players, and any reasonable roster would put them well into luxury tax land. Not gonna happen...one of the Big 4 (including this year's free agent) would clearly have to go.
It's fun to have a thread talking about free agents we would like to add, but the math above is why I don't participate...it's a fantasy. We now have a Big 3 that can perhaps win a championship, and Thibs isn't going to do anything that might force them to "Harden" one of them in three years. What they are going to have to do instead is find free agents at bargain basement prices (like Thibs did last year) that they think will complement our stars well. That's why I think we have to keep the conversation realistic now that we have Butler, and focus more on names like Casspi and Rush...not Milsap, Ibaka and Lowry.
I agree, and I'm sure Thibs are also taking a 'long view' on the Wolves cap position. His patience with free agents last offseason now seem to have shown a great level of foresight. But a couple of other points to consider in relation to this:
Firstly, I'm not sure that you can go too wrong just accumulating talent and then work out how to fit it all together later. Good players on reasonable contracts will always have value. I'm not talking about overpaying, because that restricts future options, but we do have capacity to add further talent now and work it out later. I suspect that we won't sign a big name free agent this year, but I could understand the rationale if we spend while we can.
Secondly, the calculations above also apply to every other team. There is only so much room in the cap to accumulate a Big 3, or a Big 4 or whatever. Golden State's situation is very unique and a real beneficiary of circumstance. Curry's low cap number and then the massive jump in the cap allowing almost every team to have cap space is not something that is likely to be replicated. I don't know the details of GSs cap situation, but I find it difficult to know how they keep it all together for 5 years to make every season a foregone conclusion. Maybe after a few championships Klay Thompson wants to step out of the shadow and take on a larger role, who knows. But the cap is restrictive for super teams to be built and to last.
So if KAT can develop into a genuine top 10 player, Butler remains a top 15 player and Wiggins continues to develop, then there's some real premium talent there - and that puts us in the mix. Getting premium talent and filling in around it rather than mid-level talent is the key. It was the whole premise of The Process. We've potentially got that elite talent on the roster.
