longstrangetrip wrote:Sometimes I think rabid fans, like us, tend to ignore the other team's position when we evaluate potential deals, and that tends to cloud our thinking. In the Love case, I think it leads to overvaluing the potential return we will get in a deal. I don't think we are giving enough weight to the risk to a potential trading partner of Love leaving a year after they give up significant assets in a deal. That's the kind of event that gets a GM fired, and GMs have a tendency to not want to get fired.
Let's evaluate the Love deal as if we were on the other side. Let's say we were the buyer for an elite player like Carmelo Anthony, who had one year left on his deal. Let's assume we had the top pick in the draft, and the Knicks proposed this deal:
Minnesota: Carmelo Anthony
Knicks: Kevin Martin, Pek, #1 pick
While it would be exciting to add a draw like Anthony, do you think Flip would make this deal...knowing the risk that Melo could walk in a year? Would you want Flip to make this deal? Fans might say "Oh, this deal is going to make us so good, there's no way Melo leaves after a year", but Flip (or any smart GM) needs to look at it differently. So many things can happen, like key injuries or the difficulty in fitting a new player into a system, that can alter the expected outcome. Compare the Nets results last year to their expectations after bringing in so many good players.
I think the risk of Love bolting after one year is way too high for a GM to give too much up in a deal. I'm still hoping for what many of you guys think is a given (#1 from Cleveland, multiple picks and Olynyk from Boston,etc), but still very, very skeptical.
I like that Carmello deal and I would hope to god that Flip would make that deal if it were really a possibility. Carmello is exactly what we need and what a fun team.
Rubio
Bud
Melo
Love
Dieng
With Bazz off the bench.
This is a win now league you have seen it before with Boston and Miami that a big move can immediately change your franchise. These guys all want to be in the spotlight, the best way to do that is to be playing in June. Going deep in the playoffs is the best pitch you can make to a player (the Chris Paul deal). Which is why a deal for Love would be worth the risk for any team on the cusp of contending.
This is the point I have kept making in this process. Why are we always the bitch? We are looking at a rebuild if Love leaves. I just don't buy that we are going to be better via any of these trades save the Cleveland deal, but that will still be years before we reap the benefits of Wiggins. Why not flip the table and really go for it, just like Danny Ainge did with the Celtics. We just don't want to contend. Are we really thinking about Love leaving as our opportunity for the future? Just wait a few more years before we can sniff the playoffs again.
