Derrick Rose to the Timberwolves?

[alexftbl8181 [enjin:6648741]]

They had some unbelievable first quarters. I remember one in particular against the Lakers where they looked like they were unstoppable.

I was lucky to be at that game at Staples. It was an unbelievable first quarter...something like 41-19. And they played pretty well the rest of the game too. Nicholson had a sour look on his face the entire game...kind of like he had eaten a bad taco. Things were looking rosy back then, but they changed drastically the next night. Wasn't that the game where both Love and Pek missed two footers in the last 5 seconds that would have beaten the Clippers?

Love missed a shot from right at the rim. At the time, everybody shrugged like "hey, those things happen. No big deal."

I don't think anybody expected it to be the tip of the iceberg in how to lose close games.

Hm don't remember the games but I do remember games where

Pek missed a bunny at the end

Love gets fouled shooting a last second 3 and didn't get called

Love getting the call another game and missing all 3 free throws

Martin getting picked by Chris Paul

I'm sure theres more but man, nut punches all around

[Coolbreeze44]

They had some unbelievable first quarters. I remember one in particular against the Lakers where they looked like they were unstoppable.

I was lucky to be at that game at Staples. It was an unbelievable first quarter...something like 41-19. And they played pretty well the rest of the game too. Nicholson had a sour look on his face the entire game...kind of like he had eaten a bad taco. Things were looking rosy back then, but they changed drastically the next night. Wasn't that the game where both Love and Pek missed two footers in the last 5 seconds that would have beaten the Clippers?

Love missed a shot from right at the rim. At the time, everybody shrugged like "hey, those things happen. No big deal."

I don't think anybody expected it to be the tip of the iceberg in how to lose close games.

Hm don't remember the games but I do remember games where

Pek missed a bunny at the end

Love gets fouled shooting a last second 3 and didn't get called

Love getting the call another game and missing all 3 free throws

Martin getting picked by Chris Paul

I'm sure theres more but man, nut punches all around

I don't think the bold happened.

[alexftbl8181 [enjin:6648741]]

They had some unbelievable first quarters. I remember one in particular against the Lakers where they looked like they were unstoppable.

I was lucky to be at that game at Staples. It was an unbelievable first quarter...something like 41-19. And they played pretty well the rest of the game too. Nicholson had a sour look on his face the entire game...kind of like he had eaten a bad taco. Things were looking rosy back then, but they changed drastically the next night. Wasn't that the game where both Love and Pek missed two footers in the last 5 seconds that would have beaten the Clippers?

Love missed a shot from right at the rim. At the time, everybody shrugged like "hey, those things happen. No big deal."

I don't think anybody expected it to be the tip of the iceberg in how to lose close games.

Hm don't remember the games but I do remember games where

Pek missed a bunny at the end

Love gets fouled shooting a last second 3 and didn't get called

Love getting the call another game and missing all 3 free throws

Martin getting picked by Chris Paul

I'm sure theres more but man, nut punches all around

I don't think the bold happened.

[youtube]i090WDVJjfw[/youtube]

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

They had some unbelievable first quarters. I remember one in particular against the Lakers where they looked like they were unstoppable.

I was lucky to be at that game at Staples. It was an unbelievable first quarter...something like 41-19. And they played pretty well the rest of the game too. Nicholson had a sour look on his face the entire game...kind of like he had eaten a bad taco. Things were looking rosy back then, but they changed drastically the next night. Wasn't that the game where both Love and Pek missed two footers in the last 5 seconds that would have beaten the Clippers?

Love missed a shot from right at the rim. At the time, everybody shrugged like "hey, those things happen. No big deal."

I don't think anybody expected it to be the tip of the iceberg in how to lose close games.

Hm don't remember the games but I do remember games where

Pek missed a bunny at the end

Love gets fouled shooting a last second 3 and didn't get called

Love getting the call another game and missing all 3 free throws

Martin getting picked by Chris Paul

I'm sure theres more but man, nut punches all around

I don't think the bold happened.

[youtube]i090WDVJjfw[/youtube]

Wow, I had completely blocked that memory out of my mind...good find, Alex. Unfortunately, I do remember all the other nut punches you cited.

The Wolves were healthy and playing well at the time of that Clipper loss (after the blowout Laker win), so I remember not feeling terrible after the Pek/Love misses at the end of the game. But we did seem to spiral down after that.

[Coolbreeze44]

That's right the 3rd one intentionally - my bad

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

That's right the 3rd one intentionally - my bad

And one of the most poorly executed intentional misses I have ever seen. Love's sensational 3-pointer to beat the Clippers in overtime remains the only true winning clutch play I can recall him making. Let's hope the guy we got in trade for him turns out to be a closer. We don't know yet.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I'm a big believer that close game wins and losses are decided more by luck than any individual or team attribute that is repeatable. I'm not saying that "being clutch" is totally non-existent, but I do think luck/random variability plays a much larger role. We were incredibly unlucky two seasons ago.

[Monster]

I'm a big believer that close game wins and losses are decided more by luck than any individual or team attribute that is repeatable. I'm not saying that "being clutch" is totally non-existent, but I do think luck/random variability plays a much larger role. We were incredibly unlucky two seasons ago.

Q I would say some teams execute better late or have more effort plays but I think that's just what those teams do those things the other minutes of the game too right?

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I'm a big believer that close game wins and losses are decided more by luck than any individual or team attribute that is repeatable. I'm not saying that "being clutch" is totally non-existent, but I do think luck/random variability plays a much larger role. We were incredibly unlucky two seasons ago.

Q I would say some teams execute better late or have more effort plays but I think that's just what those teams do those things the other minutes of the game too right?

I think that yes, in general, the better you are as an overall team, the better chance you have of winning a close game. It would be interesting to do a correlation analysis. I'm positive that R is >0, but no way is it close to 1.

Golden State, for example, had the best "close game" record last season, which mirrors the fact that they were the best team in the NBA. On the other hand, San Antonio had the 17th best "close game" record, despite winning 55 games. Does that mean they aren't clutch and have some sort of systemic problem? Or how did Brooklyn end up with the 6th best close game record, despite only winning 38 games? I think a lot of it is random variability.

Let's also remember that the reason we were in a lot of those close games to begin with was because our bench let teams back in the game.

[Coolbreeze44]

How do we define close games? As a guy who bets the NBA, I know a lot of games that appear or became close, really weren't. Games that go to OT can end up being 10 point games. There is just so much ambiguity that goes into the analysis of "close games".

For me a better analysis is how certain individuals perform with the game on the line. In a truly closely waged contest, what players consistently can be counted on to affect the key plays at the end of a game. To use an extreme example, the dynastic Bulls had 3 such players. Jordan of course, but also Pippen and Rodman. All three were clutch defensively, consistently forcing their will on the opponent to come up with stops. And Jordan was one of the great clutch offensive players of all time. Dickie V calls them PTPers, and the more of those types of players you have the better you are going to perform in close games.