lipoli390 wrote:crazy-canuck wrote:"According to ESPN's Brian Windhorst, in addition to the Miami Heat, the Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks are interested in Jimmy Butler"
https://twitter.com/AlexKennedyNBA/status/1054749892139278336
Thanks for posting, CC. Nothing new in this report. I think Brian is wrong that teams like the Clippers and Mavs won't trade for him because they can sign him as a free agent next summer. It should be obvious that having him on your roster before next summer gives you a leg up in two ways on other teams potentially competing with you to sign him as a FA. First, if you trade for him you have his Bird right and can sign him to a bigger contract than any other team. Second, if you trade for him you can establish a bond between Jimmy and his teammates and coaching staff before next season. That not only gives you a positive leg up on other teams trying to sign Butler next summer, it also gives you a head start integrating him into your team for next season.
So here's how I look at it.
First, there are certainly a number of teams that likely have no interest in Butler for various reasons. Some are in an early rebuilding phase. Some might not see his skill set or personality as a good fit for their rosters. Others might be concerned about his injury history and are reluctant to sign him long term at age 30 next summer.
That's leaves a certain teams that likely have some level of interest in Butler. We're seen enough reports to conclude that those teams include Miami, the Clippers, Houston and Dallas. I would add the Sixers and Wizards to that list, even though those two teams haven't been reported as having an interest in Jimmy. I still believe the Grizzlies have an interest. I could also see the Lakers eventually developing interest in Jimmy if they continue to lose and LeBron grows frustrated. I think that's probably the complete list of teams with a significant interest in Jimmy. If the Wolves are smart, they'll exclude Houston from consideration because they simply don't have the assets the Wolves should expect in return for Jimmy. If the Wolves trade Jimmy, they need to get young assets that can be used to build around KAT, Wiggins and Okogie. Eric Gordon and PJ Tucker don't fit that bill. And it's highly unlikely the Rockets would include Capela in a Butler deal.
So the teams that likely have some significant interest in Jimmy, along with assets the Wolves should expect in return, consist of the following six teams: (1) Miami, (2) Clippers, (3) Mavs, (4) Grizzlies, (5) Sixers, and (6) Wizards. I agree with Brian that the teams most likely to pay a premium for Jimmy are those that won't and can't realistically have cap space to sign him next summer. I also think the teams likely to pay more are those with older rosters who have a relatively short window to take their play to another level. So which teams have these two characteristics? Answer: the Heat, Wizards and Grizzlies. Therefore, I'm convinced that, if Butler is traded this season, it will be to one of those three teams.
Note I say, if he's traded. I've reached a point where I wouldn't be surprised to see Butler remain with Wolves the entire season. And who knows. Maybe the Wolves end up with a top 4 finish and first round playoff win this season. And maybe that prompts Butler to stay with the Wolves for a max contract higher than any other organization could pay. I've criticized relying at all on that scenario as a basis for failing to trade Jimmy. But Flip told me he argued against trading Marbury because he was convinced that winning would cure Marbury's woes. Flip remained convinced when I talked to him a few years ago that Marbury would have gotten over his issues and stayed with the Wolves who, at the time Marbury was traded, were in first place in the Western Conference standings. So maybe Thibodeau is on to something.
If we do a deal with any of the teams on my list, here are the players the Wolves should insist on getting in return:
Miami: Josh Richardson or Bam + Miami's 2019 1st rd pk lottery protected or better
Wizards: Bradley Beal or Otto Porter
Grizzlies: Jaren Jackson Jr.
Clippers: Tobias Harris or G-Alexander
Meanwhile, I'm growing more and more comfortable with the idea of holding onto Butler all season. I'm succumbing to the influence of Cam and LST. :) Honestly, I keep thinking about how much better we are with Jimmy and how much I'd miss watching him play for the Wolves.
In your scenario where we end up keeping Butler for the whole season, lets say we keep Butler and he wants his 5 year max salary. Lets say we sign him to a 5 year max contract next Summer with a wink wink we will still try and trade you if a good offer comes up. The Clippers for instance signed Blake to the 5 year max before trading him a few months later to Detroit. If we went down this road, would Butlers value be higher to a team like Miami or lower?
