monsterpile wrote:I'm doing a separate reply here because I'm gonna get some sort of injury scrolling through some of these response threads on my phone. Might have to miss part of the season with a wrist surgery...
I gotta give a Lip a hard time here but it's just in good fun. He says we shouldn't have sold the pick we could have used to select Gobert but...then picks in the 20's don't have value...come on man. ;)
I'd be curious how many people actually think these 4 first rounders are really offered or would be offered. I'm about 50/50 on whether it's true.
First of all, great point on picks in the 20's. And I do think it's true. And I think they would still go higher.
monsterpile wrote:Lip if it was offered would you do an Eric Gordon and Chriss plus 4 first round picks for Butler? Keep in mind Chriss has advanced stats that showed he was a positive on the defensive end playing on the Suns...the Suns. I'm far from a Chriss believer although I saw the theory of his "upside" but I didn't think love the chances of him reaching in the draft. I think he is a decent young asset and Gordon would not be just a dead salary like Knight or Waiters.
If it's Gordon and Chriss, I can see doing that deal, provided the last three picks are not lottery protected. Chriss is still only 21 years old so I see him as a young talent with potential who's shown that he can play at the NBA level. Whether it's Gordon or Knight wouldn't matter to me. But I'd still prefer getting Richardson and Adebayo - two young talents who have proven they can play well at the NBA level. Cam said Butler's value would go up if we waited. Well, the Houston offer might drive up Butler's market value. So now is the time to strike and I strongly suspect that Pat Riley will improve his last offer. I'll take Richardson and Adebayo plus Miami's 2019 first over 4 first round picks likely to be in the 20s.
Otherwise, I wouldn't complain about getting the 4 picks from Houston plus Chriss, provided again that the last three picks aren't lottery protected. And I see Kahn's logic in suggesting Houston will become a lottery team by the time of our last couple picks.
Thanks for the response Lip. A couple things to add.
Basically for this deal to happen I don't think any of them can be protected because they have to be fulfilled in the 7 year time frame. If that's the way it is...it makes it pretty valueable because you just don't know what could happen. It also ales me a bit skeptical it's real but hell if I thought getting Butler gave me a real chance at a title the next 2 years I'd consider it.
i get that Gordon or Knight probably isn't a dealbreaker in general but Gordonnis a plus as at worst a valuable 6th man. Knight is a guy that the last season he played was a Crawford level advanced stats bad (actually so think it was even worse and doesn't bring the nifty vet leadership awesome dude vibe) plus he can't stay healthy. So you have at worst a neutral contract player instead of a massive negative. Also Gordon can absolutely play which might help Glen and Thibs pull the trigger. :)
Lol. Yep, Gordon might be the key to getting Thibodeau's buy-in. In my view, Knight's only value is his expiring contract. I'd be inclined to release him after the trade. I'd rather not have Gordon's contract for two years. By the way, take a look at Gordon's stats so far this season. They're terrible. Makes me wonder if he's having physical issues. He's always an injury waiting to happen. To the extent he stays healthy, his presence would hurt our draft position next summer. So the more I think about it, the more I'd prefer Knight over Gordon as part of this deal.
I would hope none of the deals would be lottery protected. If they were, we could lose some of them because the picks would have to be extinguished if Houston ended up in the lottery any of those years. Imagine this scenario. The first two of the four picked are lottery protected. Harden gets injured and misses the rest of this season and Houston finishes in the lottery. Now the Wolves are down to 3 picks.
The CBA prevents them from being protected in the way you describe. They have to be traded in a way that they convey legally over the time period they are in. If it's possible for it to not convey and thus violate the CBA it can't be a protection on the pick when it goes out. So the most they could try to protect them would be to make them swaps or have them switch to 2's which the second is completely off the table.
monsterpile wrote:I'm doing a separate reply here because I'm gonna get some sort of injury scrolling through some of these response threads on my phone. Might have to miss part of the season with a wrist surgery...
I gotta give a Lip a hard time here but it's just in good fun. He says we shouldn't have sold the pick we could have used to select Gobert but...then picks in the 20's don't have value...come on man. ;)
I'd be curious how many people actually think these 4 first rounders are really offered or would be offered. I'm about 50/50 on whether it's true.
First of all, great point on picks in the 20's. And I do think it's true. And I think they would still go higher.
Lol. Nice low blow, Monster. Of course I'd never say never when it comes to the chance of getting a good player in the 20s. But it is highly unusual to get a player of Gobert's caliber in the 20s. And when it comes to the Wolves drafting well in the 20s, well... need I say more. :)
I actually believe the report about the 4 picks. That's how Morey rolls. He's all in on winning now and he never seems to look very far into the future. Moreover, Houston has absolutely no one on its roster who would interest the Wolves other than players like Harden and Capela who they'd never trade. So if they really want Butler they have to step up in a big way with picks. Because it's highly likely that at least their next two picks will be near the bottom of the first round, they have to offer volume to make their offer enticing. This is very Morey like. He decides what he wants and then he steps up and puts his best offer forward for a quick strike. If it doesn't work, he moves on. So yes, I absolutely believe the report.
monsterpile wrote:I'm doing a separate reply here because I'm gonna get some sort of injury scrolling through some of these response threads on my phone. Might have to miss part of the season with a wrist surgery...
I gotta give a Lip a hard time here but it's just in good fun. He says we shouldn't have sold the pick we could have used to select Gobert but...then picks in the 20's don't have value...come on man. ;)
I'd be curious how many people actually think these 4 first rounders are really offered or would be offered. I'm about 50/50 on whether it's true.
First of all, great point on picks in the 20's. And I do think it's true. And I think they would still go higher.
Lol. Nice low blow, Monster. Of course I'd never say never when it comes to the chance of getting a good player in the 20s. But it is highly unusual to get a player of Gobert's caliber in the 20s. And when it comes to the Wolves drafting well in the 20s, well... need I say more. :)
I actually believe the report about the 4 picks. That's how Morey rolls. He's all in on winning now and he never seems to look very far into the future. Moreover, Houston has absolutely no one on its roster who would interest the Wolves other than players like Harden and Capela who they'd never trade. So if they really want Butler they have to step up in a big way with picks. Because it's highly likely that at least their next two picks will be near the bottom of the first round, they have to offer volume to make their offer enticing. This is very Morey like. He decides what he wants and then he steps up and puts his best offer forward for a quick strike. If it doesn't work, he moves on. So yes, I absolutely believe the report.
You know, Darryl Morrey lived in Eagan for a year, and Eagan changes a man.
monsterpile wrote:I'm doing a separate reply here because I'm gonna get some sort of injury scrolling through some of these response threads on my phone. Might have to miss part of the season with a wrist surgery...
I gotta give a Lip a hard time here but it's just in good fun. He says we shouldn't have sold the pick we could have used to select Gobert but...then picks in the 20's don't have value...come on man. ;)
I'd be curious how many people actually think these 4 first rounders are really offered or would be offered. I'm about 50/50 on whether it's true.
First of all, great point on picks in the 20's. And I do think it's true. And I think they would still go higher.
Lol. Nice low blow, Monster. Of course I'd never say never when it comes to the chance of getting a good player in the 20s. But it is highly unusual to get a player of Gobert's caliber in the 20s. And when it comes to the Wolves drafting well in the 20s, well... need I say more. :)
I actually believe the report about the 4 picks. That's how Morey rolls. He's all in on winning now and he never seems to look very far into the future. Moreover, Houston has absolutely no one on its roster who would interest the Wolves other than players like Harden and Capela who they'd never trade. So if they really want Butler they have to step up in a big way with picks. Because it's highly likely that at least their next two picks will be near the bottom of the first round, they have to offer volume to make their offer enticing. This is very Morey like. He decides what he wants and then he steps up and puts his best offer forward for a quick strike. If it doesn't work, he moves on. So yes, I absolutely believe the report.
You know, Darryl Morrey lived in Eagan for a year, and Eagan changes a man.
Lol. I didn't know that. That explains a lot. And I'll have to remember to include the double r in his name. :)
monsterpile wrote:Lip if it was offered would you do an Eric Gordon and Chriss plus 4 first round picks for Butler? Keep in mind Chriss has advanced stats that showed he was a positive on the defensive end playing on the Suns...the Suns. I'm far from a Chriss believer although I saw the theory of his "upside" but I didn't think love the chances of him reaching in the draft. I think he is a decent young asset and Gordon would not be just a dead salary like Knight or Waiters.
If it's Gordon and Chriss, I can see doing that deal, provided the last three picks are not lottery protected. Chriss is still only 21 years old so I see him as a young talent with potential who's shown that he can play at the NBA level. Whether it's Gordon or Knight wouldn't matter to me. But I'd still prefer getting Richardson and Adebayo - two young talents who have proven they can play well at the NBA level. Cam said Butler's value would go up if we waited. Well, the Houston offer might drive up Butler's market value. So now is the time to strike and I strongly suspect that Pat Riley will improve his last offer. I'll take Richardson and Adebayo plus Miami's 2019 first over 4 first round picks likely to be in the 20s.
Otherwise, I wouldn't complain about getting the 4 picks from Houston plus Chriss, provided again that the last three picks aren't lottery protected. And I see Kahn's logic in suggesting Houston will become a lottery team by the time of our last couple picks.
Thanks for the response Lip. A couple things to add.
Basically for this deal to happen I don't think any of them can be protected because they have to be fulfilled in the 7 year time frame. If that's the way it is...it makes it pretty valueable because you just don't know what could happen. It also ales me a bit skeptical it's real but hell if I thought getting Butler gave me a real chance at a title the next 2 years I'd consider it.
i get that Gordon or Knight probably isn't a dealbreaker in general but Gordonnis a plus as at worst a valuable 6th man. Knight is a guy that the last season he played was a Crawford level advanced stats bad (actually so think it was even worse and doesn't bring the nifty vet leadership awesome dude vibe) plus he can't stay healthy. So you have at worst a neutral contract player instead of a massive negative. Also Gordon can absolutely play which might help Glen and Thibs pull the trigger. :)
Lol. Yep, Gordon might be the key to getting Thibodeau's buy-in. In my view, Knight's only value is his expiring contract. I'd be inclined to release him after the trade. I'd rather not have Gordon's contract for two years. By the way, take a look at Gordon's stats so far this season. They're terrible. Makes me wonder if he's having physical issues. He's always an injury waiting to happen. To the extent he stays healthy, his presence would hurt our draft position next summer. So the more I think about it, the more I'd prefer Knight over Gordon as part of this deal.
I would hope none of the deals would be lottery protected. If they were, we could lose some of them because the picks would have to be extinguished if Houston ended up in the lottery any of those years. Imagine this scenario. The first two of the four picked are lottery protected. Harden gets injured and misses the rest of this season and Houston finishes in the lottery. Now the Wolves are down to 3 picks.
The CBA prevents them from being protected in the way you describe. They have to be traded in a way that they convey legally over the time period they are in. If it's possible for it to not convey and thus violate the CBA it can't be a protection on the pick when it goes out. So the most they could try to protect them would be to make them swaps or have them switch to 2's which the second is completely off the table.
Like you said it can't be like that. They can say lotto protected and if Houston ends up in the lotto they become 2 2nds but if that's the case you don't do the trade.
monsterpile wrote:I'm doing a separate reply here because I'm gonna get some sort of injury scrolling through some of these response threads on my phone. Might have to miss part of the season with a wrist surgery...
I gotta give a Lip a hard time here but it's just in good fun. He says we shouldn't have sold the pick we could have used to select Gobert but...then picks in the 20's don't have value...come on man. ;)
I'd be curious how many people actually think these 4 first rounders are really offered or would be offered. I'm about 50/50 on whether it's true.
First of all, great point on picks in the 20's. And I do think it's true. And I think they would still go higher.
Lol. Nice low blow, Monster. Of course I'd never say never when it comes to the chance of getting a good player in the 20s. But it is highly unusual to get a player of Gobert's caliber in the 20s. And when it comes to the Wolves drafting well in the 20s, well... need I say more. :)
I actually believe the report about the 4 picks. That's how Morey rolls. He's all in on winning now and he never seems to look very far into the future. Moreover, Houston has absolutely no one on its roster who would interest the Wolves other than players like Harden and Capela who they'd never trade. So if they really want Butler they have to step up in a big way with picks. Because it's highly likely that at least their next two picks will be near the bottom of the first round, they have to offer volume to make their offer enticing. This is very Morey like. He decides what he wants and then he steps up and puts his best offer forward for a quick strike. If it doesn't work, he moves on. So yes, I absolutely believe the report.
You know, Darryl Morrey lived in Eagan for a year, and Eagan changes a man.
Lol. I didn't know that. That explains a lot. And I'll have to remember to include the double r in his name. :)
I'm sorry, did I spell it wrong? Here's how I learned he lived in Eagan: Remember when Bill Simmons decided he should be the next Wolves GM, because no one could read his past columns to see how kinda average he was at picking NBA players? Well, he had Morrey (Morey?) on his podcast and mentioned how great he would be at being the Wolves GM. And Morrey gave a diplomatic answer about suffering fans, the Wild, how it would be nice to have new blood, etc. So that's how I stumbled across that.
Bonus point. If we suck...fine we get a better draft pick. That could be another upside of dealing Butler now. I've seen some positives from this team (and Thibs) along with some injuries already hitting other teams that it's even possible this team might actually not suck the whole year if Butler is dealt. This team is flawed without Butler but it's also not the preseason team we saw either.
Nice job making the case, Monster. As yo
You're right that 4 picks in the 20s is better than 2 picks in the 20s. But a deal with Miami would also likely include a proven young talented player named Josh Richardson and at least one other proven player (Olynyk, Whiteside or Adebayo, not Waiters). I wouldn't make draft picks the centerpiece of a Butler deal unless at least one of the picks was likely to be a lottery pick. Based on Houston's current roster and front office track record, I think it's highly unlikely any of the Houston picks would be lottery picks. When Boston traded down last summer for Tatum, they received Sacramento's 2019 pick, which at the time was highly likely to be not just a lottery pick but a high lottery pick. And that was just for moving up two spots in the draft. That's what good organizations do. They don't get all excited about 4 picks in the 20s spread over 7 years. It's fool's gold.
They also were trading the #1 overall pick. The receiving team gets to take their favorite player in the draft and essentially locks them in for 10 years. It was also with a Sixer's team who thought that Fultz was the perfect piece to pair with Simmons and Embiid, and the trade was conducted by the boneheaded Colangelo.
Apples to oranges.
My point wasn't to compare the two deals. My point was that you shouldn't make draft picks the centerpiece of a deal in which your giving up a really valueable asset unless at least one of the picks your get is likely to be a lottery pick. The Sixers traded up only two spots, yet gave up a surefire lottery pick. Yes, they really wanted Fultz, but they had a lot of very talented options at #3. The question is whether there are any teams with a likely future lottery pick who really want Butler the way the Sixers apparently wanted Fultz. There may be no such teams. Or maybe one of the last two Houston picks is likely to be a lottery pick. But otherwise, picks in the 20s are nothing to get excited about in my view.
The "many valuable assets" stance is mostly a hindsight is 20/20 scenario. At the time, Fultz was the big deal and Philly was in the position where that would have catapulted them.
In our situation, how valuable is Butler? Absolutely a great talent, but we have no reason to believe he is anything more than a one year rental at this point. That same line of thinking goes for every other team trading for him. Play your hand too long and you lose your bluff and will have to settle.
You got lucky and have a win now team on the hook. Reel in.
monsterpile wrote:Lip if it was offered would you do an Eric Gordon and Chriss plus 4 first round picks for Butler? Keep in mind Chriss has advanced stats that showed he was a positive on the defensive end playing on the Suns...the Suns. I'm far from a Chriss believer although I saw the theory of his "upside" but I didn't think love the chances of him reaching in the draft. I think he is a decent young asset and Gordon would not be just a dead salary like Knight or Waiters.
If it's Gordon and Chriss, I can see doing that deal, provided the last three picks are not lottery protected. Chriss is still only 21 years old so I see him as a young talent with potential who's shown that he can play at the NBA level. Whether it's Gordon or Knight wouldn't matter to me. But I'd still prefer getting Richardson and Adebayo - two young talents who have proven they can play well at the NBA level. Cam said Butler's value would go up if we waited. Well, the Houston offer might drive up Butler's market value. So now is the time to strike and I strongly suspect that Pat Riley will improve his last offer. I'll take Richardson and Adebayo plus Miami's 2019 first over 4 first round picks likely to be in the 20s.
Otherwise, I wouldn't complain about getting the 4 picks from Houston plus Chriss, provided again that the last three picks aren't lottery protected. And I see Kahn's logic in suggesting Houston will become a lottery team by the time of our last couple picks.
Thanks for the response Lip. A couple things to add.
Basically for this deal to happen I don't think any of them can be protected because they have to be fulfilled in the 7 year time frame. If that's the way it is...it makes it pretty valueable because you just don't know what could happen. It also ales me a bit skeptical it's real but hell if I thought getting Butler gave me a real chance at a title the next 2 years I'd consider it.
i get that Gordon or Knight probably isn't a dealbreaker in general but Gordonnis a plus as at worst a valuable 6th man. Knight is a guy that the last season he played was a Crawford level advanced stats bad (actually so think it was even worse and doesn't bring the nifty vet leadership awesome dude vibe) plus he can't stay healthy. So you have at worst a neutral contract player instead of a massive negative. Also Gordon can absolutely play which might help Glen and Thibs pull the trigger. :)
Lol. Yep, Gordon might be the key to getting Thibodeau's buy-in. In my view, Knight's only value is his expiring contract. I'd be inclined to release him after the trade. I'd rather not have Gordon's contract for two years. By the way, take a look at Gordon's stats so far this season. They're terrible. Makes me wonder if he's having physical issues. He's always an injury waiting to happen. To the extent he stays healthy, his presence would hurt our draft position next summer. So the more I think about it, the more I'd prefer Knight over Gordon as part of this deal.
I would hope none of the deals would be lottery protected. If they were, we could lose some of them because the picks would have to be extinguished if Houston ended up in the lottery any of those years. Imagine this scenario. The first two of the four picked are lottery protected. Harden gets injured and misses the rest of this season and Houston finishes in the lottery. Now the Wolves are down to 3 picks.
Lip Knight and Gordon are both signed through next season and Knight makes actually 1.5 million more next season.
