LST's playoff projection model

[60WinTim]

I'm pretty sure the draft order is unaffected by "tie-breakers" based on games. If two or more teams are tied at the end of the season, a coin flip is used to determine the draft order.

And even should the Wolves wind up with the 14th pick, and thus losing it to Phoenix, there would still be one more chance to get it back -- by getting one of the top 3 picks in the lottery!

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Ping pong balls have never went our way. I'd be willing to bet the Lakers "somehow" get the No. 1 overall pick. Rigged rigged rigged.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Damn, I had boarded this building up, but you trespassers are making me reopen it!

I have been keeping up my model...more to monitor whether the Wolves get their draft pick than assessing playoff chances. But last night's upset combined with getting a break with Dwight out tonight provides a glimmer of hope. It's now all about the Memphis game next Monday...biggest game of the year. Unfortunately, it's the back half of a BTB for us with Phoenix the night before, and it's in Memphis, so it's going to be a tough one for us to win. But we are playing well of late.

Phoenix is having difficulty incorporating Bledsoe back into the lineup, as both he and Green are not playing well. If we win our home game against the Suns, we will own the tiebreaker against them, putting us in real danger of losing our draft pick :sick: .

Here are the updated win projections. Because their remaining schedules are so easy, GS and Dallas have moved away from the pack (even with Dallas' loss last night), so I won't include them here.

Memphis 47
Phoenix 45
Wolves 44

If the Wolves can upset Houston tonight and Memphis on Monday, we will be tied with Memphis at 46 wins. So, I'm saying we have a chance.

LST, Wouldn't that just be like the Wolves, to tie PHX in the standing and lose the pick due to a tiebreaking win? In one of the best drafts in years? KAAAHHHHNNNNNN!!!!!!

His final gift to us...that would be the ultimate KAAAAHHHNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN!

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I'm pretty sure the draft order is unaffected by "tie-breakers" based on games. If two or more teams are tied at the end of the season, a coin flip is used to determine the draft order.

And even should the Wolves wind up with the 14th pick, and thus losing it to Phoenix, there would still be one more chance to get it back -- by getting one of the top 3 picks in the lottery!

You know, I think you're right, Tim. The tiebreaker rules only come into play for playoff positioning...draft order ties are broken by a coin flip. Thanks for the correction :thumb: .

Tiebreaker rules come into play if we somehow come back to tie Memphis for 8th place, and unfortunately they will have the tiebreaker over us.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I'm pretty sure the draft order is unaffected by "tie-breakers" based on games. If two or more teams are tied at the end of the season, a coin flip is used to determine the draft order.

And even should the Wolves wind up with the 14th pick, and thus losing it to Phoenix, there would still be one more chance to get it back -- by getting one of the top 3 picks in the lottery!

You know, I think you're right, Tim. The tiebreaker rules only come into play for playoff positioning...draft order ties are broken by a coin flip. Thanks for the correction :thumb: .

Tiebreaker rules come into play if we somehow come back to tie Memphis for 8th place, and unfortunately they will have the tiebreaker over us.

How would they have the tiebreaker? We're 1-1 against them with two games left. We win those and we own the breaker I believe.

[mjs34]

I am pretty sure it is a coin flip at the end of the season in the case of similar records. I think we have actually been through that a few times before.

Guess I was a little late posting! :)

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

What other bombs did Kahn leave for us in future drafts? Probably some stuff we don't even know about.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I'm pretty sure the draft order is unaffected by "tie-breakers" based on games. If two or more teams are tied at the end of the season, a coin flip is used to determine the draft order.

And even should the Wolves wind up with the 14th pick, and thus losing it to Phoenix, there would still be one more chance to get it back -- by getting one of the top 3 picks in the lottery!

You know, I think you're right, Tim. The tiebreaker rules only come into play for playoff positioning...draft order ties are broken by a coin flip. Thanks for the correction :thumb: .

Tiebreaker rules come into play if we somehow come back to tie Memphis for 8th place, and unfortunately they will have the tiebreaker over us.

How would they have the tiebreaker? We're 1-1 against them with two games left. We win those and we own the breaker I believe.

You're correct, cam, if we win both of the remaining games against Memphis, because we would then be 3-1 against them and win the tiebreaker. My model, though, assumes that each team wins at home leaving the series at 2-2, and Memphis is almost certain to win the next tiebreaker...conference record.

[60WinTim]

Actually, long, if the Wolves win enough and Memphis loses enough to create a tie, I suspect the Wolves would own the conference tie-breaker. They only trail by 3 games as it is, and they have more than 3 games to make up in the standings...

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Actually, long, if the Wolves win enough and Memphis loses enough to create a tie, I suspect the Wolves would own the conference tie-breaker. They only trail by 3 games as it is, and they have more than 3 games to make up in the standings...

You're probably right, Tim...just the sweep of the two games against Memphis makes up 2 of the 3-game conference record deficit.

It's too bad that our game in Memphis is the back end of a BTB...makes it much less winnable. But a win in Memphis puts the playoffs back into the conversation.