Cam's Off-Season Breakdown

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

When you look at pure production metrics - things like Win Shares per 48 minutes, TS%, rebound rate, etc. - Pekovic is the superior player to Deng.

I generally don't like making moves for the purpose of "fit". I interpret trading for fit as resulting in a downgrade of talent. Talent should almost always trump fit.....Almost.

But one can't deny the upgrade defensively we'd get by having someone like Turiaf or Dieng start at Center and Deng at SF. That is just a massive upgrade defensively. The question is how does it impact us in terms of offensive efficiency and rebounding?

Lastly, I still think we can have our cake and eat it too to some degree. We've seen how simply adding the right coach can turn a downright lousy defense into a very good one with barely a change in personnel. I'm not sold on the need to trade Pek, but this is the one suggestion that got my attention and seemed reasonable for both sides.

[KiwiMatt]

Q agree that Pek is more valuable than most think to this team.

Pek is a top 3 offensive center and probably the strongest player in the league. He is an absolute best on the offensive boards and low post.

I've always said the problem isn't our starting lineup. It's our bench, our rotation and our coach's stubbornness. The problem with defence, especially our low post defence isn't necessarily in personnel on this team, more so the rotation in which they are used. Cunningham's is our first big off the bench 95% of the time and he offers no more than Love and Pek defensively. Swap his minutes with Dieng and/or Turiaf and it would result in at least 2 more blocks per game and a similar number of altered shots. I don't mind Cunningham as a 10 - 12th man in the rotation but not the 6 - 7th he's been used as for the last two seasons.

[KiwiMatt]

Also just a question. Does anyone think Dieng could play minutes at PF?

I didn't see much of his Collegiate games at Louisville, but apparently he showed he had a decent mid range jump shot.

Could Pek and Dieng play minutes together? If so wouldn't they compliment each other well defensively with Pek clogging the lane and grabbing the boards, while Dieng plays the weak side.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Kiwi, I agree that on balance, our problem isn't the starting lineup. But we've talked at length at the unorthodoxed way they win their matchups against opposing starting lineups - through creating lots of turnovers and avoiding fouls, while limiting our own turnovers and getting to the line a ton. That's all well and good, but people on this board have legitimately questioned the robustness of that approach late in games, when the officials are more likely to swallow their whistles and teams are more careful with the basketball. I still think a good defensive coach could come up with ways to improve our opponent FG% with our existing personnel. One thing Adelman didn't seem to do much was offense/defense substitution patterns late in games. That's just one example.

As for Dieng, I do think he could play PF against some matchups for limited stretches. Dieng showed a good mid-range shot at Louisville, but it was a limited sample size and with much shorter defenders closing out. His FT% so far in the NBA is not very encouraging.

[Lipoli390]

When you look at pure production metrics - things like Win Shares per 48 minutes, TS%, rebound rate, etc. - Pekovic is the superior player to Deng.

I generally don't like making moves for the purpose of "fit". I interpret trading for fit as resulting in a downgrade of talent. Talent should almost always trump fit.....Almost.

But one can't deny the upgrade defensively we'd get by having someone like Turiaf or Dieng start at Center and Deng at SF. That is just a massive upgrade defensively. The question is how does it impact us in terms of offensive efficiency and rebounding?

Lastly, I still think we can have our cake and eat it too to some degree. We've seen how simply adding the right coach can turn a downright lousy defense into a very good one with barely a change in personnel. I'm not sold on the need to trade Pek, but this is the one suggestion that got my attention and seemed reasonable for both sides.

Excellent analysis, Q. I generally agree with you on talent trumping fit and I recall that I criticized both McHale and Kahn for focusing on "fit" as, for example, when Kahn decided he needed to get rid of Al Jefferson because he didn't fit well with Kevin Love.

So I wouldn't deal Pekovic just so we can get any athletic wing player. The talent would have to be comparable to Pek's, but a different type of talent. As you noted, Deng comes close to a comparable talent who would be a better fit for us. But I'm not sure I'm sold on Deng. My problem with Pekovic is two-fold -- (1) his poor defense, especially as a rim protector; and (2) his injury propensity. His defensive limitations are particularly exposed in our current front line, which lacks any rim-protecting defender. I actually think we played better with Turiaf as our starting center. I think our defense improved substantially.

I think Love and Pek could fit well together if we had an AK47 type defender at the SF position. It might even work if we had a SG who could stop dribble penetration. But on this team, I think Pekovic becomes too much of a defensive liability to rely on if we really hope to be a contending team. The key, of course, is who we could get for him in return. The amount and length of his contract combined with his recurring ankle problems limit his value. Yet, he's a unique low-post offensive talent who should be attractive to teams with a more athletic, defensive tandem at the two forward spots.

[alexftbl8181 [enjin:6648741]]

It still baffles me the logic used with Pek. Is the story of this season not " starters get double digit lead, bench comes in, blows lead, by the time starters get back in the wolves are usually down double digits"

How can we say Pek-Love don't work when they get double digit leads on everyone? Having a bench that's even average has us in the playoffs.

Yea it's probably a 6-7-8 seed and bounced in the first round but guess what? That's how it is with every team! No team goes from out of the playoffs to a contender. NBA isn't like the NFL, its much more of a gradual build

[mjs34]

Alex, nobody is arguing with the issue that exists with the bench players themselves, but there are other issues that exist as well. Pek's offensive prowess is partly due to Ricky spoon feeding him, which means that a good portion of his points will be picked up by the new center.The defensive improvement could be felt two fold with a guy like Deng. We would be improved at the C and SF positions on D, and likely have a bump at the SF spot on offense, which would likely take up what we lost when losing Pek.

The wolves abandoned the model you are speaking of for "every team". We didn't continue a steady climb developing our young players, and then using our final cap space to complete the team. We did it the Adelman way, shedding our younger players, replacing them with over priced vets. Completely ignoring the development phase, just for a few more wins today. That ship has sailed, which is why we are now saddled with the likely hood of moving Pek to create any additional improvement.

[alexftbl8181 [enjin:6648741]]

spoon feeding a good portion of peks points is silly. Seems you forget in order to get those spoon feedings, Pek has gotten fantastic positioning because of his strength and ability. Also one of the best pick and roll players in the league. Also scores the most points off offensive rebounds in the league. Oh and also one of the best FT shooting centers in the nba. But yea sure plug in Turiaf and you can make that up somewhere else. sure

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

For the record, a straight up trade of Pekovic for Deng (S&T) and I'm down. A new deal for Deng being four years, $48M.

My new question would be: What is the plan for starting center? Throw Dieng into the fire? I don't think Turiaf should be trusted to play that many minutes. OR should Willie Cauley-Stein become our top priority in the draft? Elite college shot blocker (3 BPG in 24 MPG), great length, athletic, youth (20 years old). He kind of fits that Tyson Chandler mold. And then we'd throw WCS into the fire with Dieng/Turiaf backing him up. Basically having a rim protector on the floor at all times.

I'm not gonna lie, I'm pretty intrigued with THAT option should the cards fall that way.

Rubio
Martin
Deng
Love
Cauley-Stein

Looks balanced on paper. Three reliable scorers on the floor (Love, Martin, Deng). Three defensive guys on the floor (Rubio, Deng, WCS). An elite wing defender (Deng). An athletic big that Rubio can feed through more passing lanes (lobs, alley oops). Starting lineup probably doesn't lose anything on offense since Deng is an 18 PPG guy, but the defensive potential would be extremely improved.

[alexftbl8181 [enjin:6648741]]

For the record, a straight up trade of Pekovic for Deng (S&T) and I'm down. A new deal for Deng being four years, $48M.

My new question would be: What is the plan for starting center? Throw Dieng into the fire? I don't think Turiaf should be trusted to play that many minutes. OR should Willie Cauley-Stein become our top priority in the draft? Elite college shot blocker (3 BPG in 24 MPG), great length, athletic, youth (20 years old). He kind of fits that Tyson Chandler mold. And then we'd throw WCS into the fire with Dieng/Turiaf backing him up. Basically having a rim protector on the floor at all times.

I'm not gonna lie, I'm pretty intrigued with THAT option should the cards fall that way.

Rubio
Martin
Deng
Love
Cauley-Stein

Looks balanced on paper. Three reliable scorers on the floor (Love, Martin, Deng). Three defensive guys on the floor (Rubio, Deng, WCS). An elite wing defender (Deng). An athletic big that Rubio can feed through more passing lanes (lobs, alley oops). Starting lineup probably doesn't lose anything on offense since Deng is an 18 PPG guy, but the defensive potential would be extremely improved.

So Brewer off the bench then? So now our bench will average like 3 points a game?