Lip, You are a scholar and a gentleman. The eloquence in which you articulate your position on such weighty matters is an inspiration to the 13 of us that frequent this board on a regular basis. Every time I read something from you, I feel slightly less dumb. Your wisdom will be missed in future Wins Prediction threads!Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 03, 2023 11:56 pmHilarious posts, Q!
I was thrilled when Michael Jordan retired after hitting the big shot to win game 6 against Utah to secure his sixth championship. I was sad to see him return several years later as an overweight 38 year old shell of his former self. Just like MJ back in 1998, this is probably the right time for me to retire from the Wolves season wins prediction thread. If I retire now, I go out on top as the first back-to-back winner in Wolves message board history. It’s a record that will probably never be matched, much less broken. Nevertheless, it’s hard to resist the lure of a possible three-peat. You mentioned the dopamine rush that comes from a winning the annual wins thread projection. It’s a powerful force.
So against my better judgment, and to avoid an asterisk, I will stay in the game for one more season - one more chance to secure my place among the immortal greats of Timberwolves message board lore. My projection for 2023-24? 44 wins. I agree for the most part with Wild Wolf’s analysis, and I also agree with him that he’s being overly generous in projecting 45 wins. So I’m coming in one less at 44.
On paper, this team should be better than 44 wins. But there’s something missing, which is what WildWolf was getting at. It’s the intangibles. It’s coach Finch saying, “we have to find an identify.” This team had an identity two years ago as a young, high-energy, offensive scoring machine with a scrappy defense that was good enough to win 46 games even though KAT was the only all-star caliber player on the team at the time. The Gobert deal obliterated that identity. When you enter a season wondering who you are as a team, that doesn’t bode well. It’s coach Finch and TC expressing uncertainty about whether the KAT/Rudy tandem will work and coach Finch saying they have to provide more structure and figure out how to make it work. Again, that doesn’t bode well in my view. Then there’s Finch saying they have to rediscover the chemistry between KAT and Ant that existed two years ago. It’s relying on a 35 year old PG with a history of missing lots of games due to injury and no clear starting caliber PG behind him. It’s losing Prince and relying on largely untested young players for bench support. Overall, this team seems to be missing a spark and lacking toughness.
In spite of all those uncertainties and intangibles, the Wolves should still win 44 games on sheer talent if their key players (KAT, Edwards and Jaden) remain healthy. But that will mean the play-in tournament for the Wolves and it will be a profound disappointment for a franchise that went all in last summer on a win-now deal that mortgaged the team’s future and robbed it of essential transactional and financial flexibility. If the intangibles turn positive, this is a team that can win 50+ games. But if not, this is a team that could end up with a win total in the 30s with some key injuries and Abe will be in a position to capture his first win projection title.
Although I’m projecting 44 wins, I’ll be rooting for Cool and others predicting 50+ wins. If they end up on top (or even better Tim gets his first title) then I’ll retire next summer as a bloated, resentful old has-been who should have gone out on top.
Now, onto your prediction. I kind of agree that the identify of this team is a bit of a mystery. I think a case could be made that their identity will be forged on the defensive side of the floor, but even that gets wonky because the team has to play defense in different ways depending on if Rudy is in the game or not.
