Opener T pups vs Raptors GDT

[SameOldNudityDrew]

Ok, woke up and watched the 4th quarter. Ugh.

Couple thoughts.

I didn't think KAT was THAT bad. He's so offensively talented, but was making the typical dumb decisions on that end last night just trying to force things too much--lobbing passes into traffic, passing up jumpshots to drive into awkward floaters, and launching 3s without squaring up first. He needs to make better decisions on that end--make the right pass and don't force it, let the game come to him with his shots, and get down the court offensively in time to get set up at the 3 point line for the shot. Defensively, I liked the effort, but just needs to play with more control.

Regarding forcing the ball to Rudy. Yeah, that was a problem. His hands are terrible. It's a shame. Everybody knows it. But that's not really a fixable problem. The decision-making and set up are fixable problems. The thing is, when it was there, it was a good play. We got a couple easy dunks that way. There were two or three problems that I saw though.

One problem was that guys were just forcing it. Some of those entry passes and lobs went straight into traffic or way out of reach. That KAT entry pass that sailed way over Rudy while he was sealing his man in the 3rd or 4th quarter even prompted Jim Pete to groan "no." That's a matter of decision-making by the passers. Even Rudy in his prime couldn't have handled some of those entry passes or lobs, and he definitely can't do so now. So our ball handlers need to make better decisions and be more careful about when to throw it to Rudy.

A second problem was miscommunication between the ball handler and Rudy about what to expect, a shot or a pass. At least a few of those looked like the ball handler didn't even know if it was a pass or a shot when it left their hands. It was like guys were improvising with no plan, but also with no communication or chemistry. On a couple of the good ones, it was clear that Conley and Ant were running the pick and roll with Rudy as a play and it was obvious when the play unfolded AND WHEN RUDY WAS OPEN that the pass was coming and we got easy buckets from that. I especially liked that one Ant assist to Rudy when Ant left his feet at about the free throw line and was able to pass it pretty quickly and downwards for the easy assist. It's not usually a good idea to leave your feet to pass, but when you know the pass will be there and that extra height allows the passer to throw a quicker, almost downward pass, it can help you avoid the kind of soft lob passes we were throwing so often. The passes that failed were often when the offense looked scrambled or when Rudy was already in the paint before the half court offense set up and it felt like, "well, what the hell, let's try THIS?" (lobs an awkward entry pass to Rudy--or maybe a shot that they hope Rudy could rebound--who knows?--it gets knocked away, anyway). So go for the entry pass or don't, but unless it's obviously there, try to set it up for a play, and if it's open, pass it, if not, shoot it or swing the ball. No more of this "I'm gonna half-assedly throw a half-shot, half-pass up there and just see what happens." A few times, this was clearly a problem of timing. The ball went up too early and Rudy too late for the alley-oop, or vice versa. Part of that is also the nature of the soft lob pass or entry pass. The longer the ball is in the air the more time there is for the timing to be off. It felt like most of our passes to Rudy were too slow, not too fast.

Third, I know Rudy needs to basically play in the paint a lot on offense, but it did feel like he was trying to seal his man to look for the entry pass a bit too often. I know that's something he can do, and if it's open, that can lead to an easy bucket. But against long athletic teams like Toronto, they'll deflect more of those passes, especially when the help defense comes in from the baseline. Maybe he should be trying to seal in the paint less and doing more pick setting at the elbows or at the 3 point line . . .

. . . which brings me to one last observation, when talking about forcing the ball to Rudy, we're really talking about 2 plays. First, the pick and roll that tended to lead to guys trying to throw the alley-oop, and second, the lobbed entry pass when Rudy was trying to seal his man in the paint. Those are similar in the sense that they are both looking to get a dunk, and should do so when they work, but they are different plays and have different risks.

The pick and roll requires Rudy to catch the ball while moving and finish, which sounds tougher, but if he gets the ball near the rim at the right time, it's an automatic dunk. I think that play has a better success rate, but not when the pass hits him outside the restricted area and he has to take a step or, god forbid, dribble on the way to the rack. He's not a great finisher when he can't just dunk it easily, and even if he can catch it, he seems to miss those layups too often. So don't pass it to him outside the restricted area, and unless the timing looks perfect for the lob, the ball handler may want to take an extra dribble and hit Rudy with the wraparound bounce pass like Steve Nash once perfected. I know, I know, we don't have Steve Nash, but guys should be capable of driving off the pick and roll one extra step instead of shooting it or lobbing it up or splitting the D with the bounce pass on the roll and instead going baseline and wrapping a bounce pass behind the defender who has turned to face the ball handler. When Rudy catches the ball on the opposite side of the rim, even in traffic, he should be able to dunk that often or at least draw fouls. If it's still too crowded, kick it to the corner 3 point shooter.

The post entry pass is the more problematic of the two even though Rudy is hypothetically not moving when he catches the ball which should be easier theoretically. Even when Rudy's sealed his guy, it's just such an obvious play (Rudy labors to get the seal and the passer often seems to be telegraphing the pass as he thinks about whether or not to toss it) that the help defense always comes, and Rudy's got to catch it up high, often at a weird angle to the basket, with the help defense coming so often with two guys around him even if he's behind one of them and taller than both. Plus, if he manages to catch it, and the defense is there to prevent the shot, Rudy's not the quickest and sharpest passer, so the chance to make the other team pay by kicking it to the corner shooter is not really there. I don't know that there's a fix for this one other than: 1) just encouraging Rudy to try to seal less often to reduce the temptation for guys to try it, especially in the half court when the help defense is ready, and 2) discouraging guys from trying that pass unless the situation is absolutely right.

We've got a clean up the offense when it's a pass to Rudy, whether it's a lob or bounce pass off the pick and roll, or a post entry pass. A lot of this is Rudy's fault but he can't do anything about it--he's just got bad hands. Part of that is Rudy's fault and he CAN do something about it because he can make better decisions about when to try to seal and communicate better with the ball handlers. But a lot of this falls on the shoulders of the ballhanders for just being reckless out there, and it's really up to Finch to teach these guys to make better decisions and find a way to establish an offensive structure that doesn't leave guys to feel like they can/have to improvise, which is when they seem to make these mistakes more often.

If used well, Rudy can definitely be an offensive weapon. The conclusion shouldn't be--"don't pass it to Rudy." But we absolutely have to be smarter about HOW we're using him offensively, and always keep efficiency in mind. Statistically, if getting him the ball is leading to good PPP, then keep doing it. If not, scale it back and work to make it more efficient. Last night was just one game, so you can't take much from the stats.

But the eye test definitely says we need to clean up that part of the game for sure, part of which might come by cutting down the hero-ball and trying to get more smart, safe ball movement. It seems counterintuitive that on a night when we saw a lot of hero ball, we also saw a lot of passes going Rudy's way. But I think it kind of fits because guys felt like they were kind of treating that pass to Rudy like a safety valve or like the player was trying to be a hero with a lob pass instead of making the safe swing pass. If we have more balanced ball movement, ironically, we might see less forced passes to Rudy, and vice versa, if we're using Rudy more carefully on offense, it might force guys to make the safe pass instead and get a more balanced offense going.

[Q-is-here]

Drew, The very fact that the topic of "how to best integrate Rudy into the offense" requires such a lengthy and well thought-out post sort of makes the case as to why it's a problem. It shouldn't have to be this complicated!

But his unique strengths as a finisher and lob threat means everyone has it in their head (including Rudy) to get him the ball down there and not everyone is adept at making accurate passes that he can catch. And that combined with his extremely limited range severely restricts the number of scenarios where it actually makes sense to throw him the pass. In the meantime, since his instinct is always to roll, he ends up clogging the lane when a pass isn't being thrown to him.

Somehow Utah made it work with Rudy as they were a top 5 offense for a couple years with him, Conley, and Mitchell. Obviously we haven't figured it out yet and last night was not a good sign.

[Sundog]

I don’t know, if the team overall shot even slightly better, the Wolves walk away with a win on the road against a pretty good team. Not sure there’s much else to take away from this… move the ball and shoot better.

[KG4Ever]

Matt Ryan 3 of 4 from three so far with 9 points for Pelicans in 2nd quarter

Of course! All former Wolves shoot the ball well when they leave.

Incredible. Ended up going 3-6 from 3 and was a +20 in only 14 minutes of action. Could have used that version of Matt Ryan off our bench tonight!

Ryan was 1 for 8 tonight, so he's 4 for 14 for season. I don't miss him, but obviously New Orleans is desperate for shooters as their best shooter is still injured (Trey Murphy). When Murphy returns, I expect Ryan to disappear from their lineup.