Dallas vs Minnesota analysis

[Q-is-here]

well the first key apparently is to start your preseason in Abu Dhabi lol.

Lively is young and active and gaining confidence. Rudy has to show him that he has a ways to go before he can get on his level.


I'm actually worried about Tim Hardaway Jr. He tends to get tons of looks from 3 when he sees us. If he's in a groove he can burn us.

If we can get Doncic and Irving to fall back on their my turn your turn offense that they do at times, we'll win.

What has the Wolves at an advantage is that we put everything into holding down Jokic. Doncic while still tough will feel easier by comparison and we'll want him to chuck because then that means only Doncic and Kyrie will score. Not having Kleber will hurt because Lively and Gafford can't force Gobert and Towns outside.

WW- we've all seen 6th men burn us off the bench (see Powell, Norman; Monk, Malik, etc), and Hardaway fits into that category to be feared. I wouldn't be surprised if Finchie subs in NAW every time Hardaway subs in to shadow him. NAW had a poor shooting game last night, but I trust his one-on-one defense as much as I trust Jaden's and Ant's.

Hardaway hasn't even played in 4 of the playoff games and is only averaging 14 MPG and 33% on 3s in the games he has played. Dallas is playing Josh Green ahead of him, probably because they like his defense better. That's not to say that Hardaway won't get on a roll at some point and be left in the game, but through the 8 playoff games he's played in, he's been just a guy.

[Q-is-here]

well the first key apparently is to start your preseason in Abu Dhabi lol.

Lively is young and active and gaining confidence. Rudy has to show him that he has a ways to go before he can get on his level.


I'm actually worried about Tim Hardaway Jr. He tends to get tons of looks from 3 when he sees us. If he's in a groove he can burn us.

If we can get Doncic and Irving to fall back on their my turn your turn offense that they do at times, we'll win.

What has the Wolves at an advantage is that we put everything into holding down Jokic. Doncic while still tough will feel easier by comparison and we'll want him to chuck because then that means only Doncic and Kyrie will score. Not having Kleber will hurt because Lively and Gafford can't force Gobert and Towns outside.

Disagree on Hardaway...not being used as much in this iteration of the Mavs.

In the games I watched them play OKC, the "your turn, my turn" is about all Luka and Kyrie did. It was done almost purely to allow the other guy to take offensive plays off to get some rest. They almost never run any two-man stuff like Jokic and Murray do, which requires a ton more defensive nuance.

[Q-is-here]

Just to compare what we're going up against with Dallas vs. what we just went up against successfully. These numbers are based solely on the WC Semis, so sample size of 6 games for Luka and Kyrie and 7 games for Jokic and Murray.

Jokic - 29PPG, 11.4 RPG, 7.9 APG, 3.4 TOs, 60 TS%
Doncic - 25PPG, 10.5 RPG, 8.7 APG, 4.5 TOs, 57 TS%

Murray - 18.4PPG, 4.1 RPG, 4.4 APG, 2.7 TOs, 48 TS%
Irving - 15.7PPG, 2.3 RPG, 6.2 APG, 2.7 TOs, 53 TS%


Jokic is easily the scarier to play against as compared to Doncic. He's far more efficient of an overall player, both in terms of shooting and ball security. Doncic is going to fill the box score, but guess what? That box score will include a lot of TOs and missed FGAs and FTAs along with the good stuff he does. He practically shot Dallas out of a couple of those games against OKC.

Irving had a fairly subdued series, as OKC guarded him really well. He can get hot, especially in second halves. He's also 32 years old and has lost a bit of burst in his first step. I noticed that he had a hard time turning the corner against OKC. He still has elite handles and shot making ability, but you can see that he wasn't particularly prolific against them.

I don't think if Kyrie and Luka put similar numbers up as they did against OKC that we are in trouble. The key is to not feel like we need to sell out to guard them, therefore limiting the other guys.

Think about how ineffective MPJ and Aaron Gordon were these last two games against Denver. That's what we need to do to PJ Washington, etc.

[Coolbreeze44]

When the defense digs in and doesn't foul, it doesn't really matter what the opponent has. That's a very comforting feeling going into a series.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

well the first key apparently is to start your preseason in Abu Dhabi lol.

Lively is young and active and gaining confidence. Rudy has to show him that he has a ways to go before he can get on his level.


I'm actually worried about Tim Hardaway Jr. He tends to get tons of looks from 3 when he sees us. If he's in a groove he can burn us.

If we can get Doncic and Irving to fall back on their my turn your turn offense that they do at times, we'll win.

What has the Wolves at an advantage is that we put everything into holding down Jokic. Doncic while still tough will feel easier by comparison and we'll want him to chuck because then that means only Doncic and Kyrie will score. Not having Kleber will hurt because Lively and Gafford can't force Gobert and Towns outside.

WW- we've all seen 6th men burn us off the bench (see Powell, Norman; Monk, Malik, etc), and Hardaway fits into that category to be feared. I wouldn't be surprised if Finchie subs in NAW every time Hardaway subs in to shadow him. NAW had a poor shooting game last night, but I trust his one-on-one defense as much as I trust Jaden's and Ant's.

Hardaway has burned us in the past. After the trades Dallas made this year, his minutes per game dropped from 32 to about 20, and with Derrick Jones Jr. and PJ Washington stepping up, he has averaged just 14 minutes and under 6 points in the playoffs this year so his threat is diminished, but yeah, he can get hot. Remember, Justin Holiday shot, like, 60% on 3s against us in games 2-5. So we shouldn't take guys like that lightly. I'm more worried about DJJ and PJ though.

Kidd is basically running an 8 man rotation with Lively coming in for Gafford and usually playing more minutes than him. Then Green and Hardaway also getting a little burn. Occasionally, they'll roll with Exum a bit.

Jaden will likely guard Luka. Luka will have a weight advantage and look to get him in foul trouble, so we need to be careful. I just started reviewing our games against Dallas this year and watching these recent Dallas games and one thing I noticed is that if you were sick of Jokic drawing fouls, get ready for Luka! That dude is constantly fishing for fouls with borderline basketball plays. And of course he's a big dude. Dort was able to defend him because Dort is a brick shithouse. Luka also averaged 37 points against us with Jaden guarding him this year, so it's not really playing to Jaden's strengths as a defender honestly. I could theoretically see us putting Ant or KAT on Luka for stretches. NAW? Maybe just to pressure him coming up the court, or to fight over screens, but probably not much. Jaden could also be used to guard Kyrie, or to shut down DJJ or PJ if they get hot.

Ant will guard Kyrie, at least to start the games. I think when we bring NAW off the bench, we might actually look to move NAW onto Kyrie depending on who else is on the court.

I'll be curious to see what we do with Rudy. You'd think they'd put him on Gafford or Lively. They put him on Lively during the regular season. Same with Gafford, it'll be useful to have Rudy's length to break up any of those lob attempts to those guys or stop them from getting to the rim. It's kind of similar to guarding Gordon because both spend a lot of time in the dunker's spot, and neither is a threat to shoot at all, so they'll never really pull Rudy out of the paint except potentially on pick-and-rolls for Luka. If we are playing drop coverage in those situations, I can see us leaving Rudy on Gafford or Lively. Trust Jaden to fight over those picks, Rudy stops the lob threat, and whomever is the third defender on that side of the court needs to be ready to stop Luka and the rest of the defense needs to be ready to rotate to help. But if we're showing hard on Luka pick-and-rolls with Lively or Gafford, could we potentially switch KAT onto one of those guys so Rudy could still be the help defender? My gut says no. We'll probably roll with trusting Jaden and Rudy to prevent Luka from getting a lob up, and trust KAT or Naz to bring the help defense if Luka gets the pass off.

But I'm guessing that play right there, the Luka-big pick and roll, will be key for us to figure out how to stop.

[FNG]

We'll have to see how the Wolves do their defense, but I don't agree with the consensus here that Jaden will be on Luka. I get it, because Jaden has most often guarded the other team's PG if he was one of their best scorers. That's why most here thought he would be on Murray. I liked Ant on Jamal though before the series started. I argued that both of them might be effective on Murray, but Jaden's height would be a better matchup on MPJ. I didn't like Ant giving up 6 inches in that matchup. Finchie ultimately saw it the same way, and both of our defenders were mostly successful in their assignments as both Murray in MPJ underperformed.

In this one, I think bulk rather than length is the best way to handle Luka, and Ant is the better answer. I think both Ant and Jaden could make life difficult for Kyrie, but my choice is Jaden only because I want our stronger player on Luka (stronger in terms of size). We'll see what Finchie decides, but that's what I would do.

[kekgeek]

Hey don’t worry guys Draymond will bring great analysis on inside the nba during the series. How on earth does TNT continue to bring this bias idiot back for some cheap clicks.

So dumb that he is going to cover the full series

[Leado01]

I like the defensive primary matchups described.

Rudy on Gafford
KAT on Washington
Jaden on Kyrie
Ant on Luka
Conley on Jones Jr.

I think Rudy and KAT can switch out and I don't actually worry about KAT switching onto Luka as long as he keeps his hands to himself.

Luka will get Jaden into foul trouble and I don't see the officials eliminating ANT from games because of Luka's foul hunting.

I can also foresee NAZ/Kyle taking some Luka just to beat him down a little.

[Monster]

I like the defensive primary matchups described.

Rudy on Gafford
KAT on Washington
Jaden on Kyrie
Ant on Luka
Conley on Jones Jr.

I think Rudy and KAT can switch out and I don't actually worry about KAT switching onto Luka as long as he keeps his hands to himself.

Luka will get Jaden into foul trouble and I don't see the officials eliminating ANT from games because of Luka's foul hunting.

I can also foresee NAZ/Kyle taking some Luka just to beat him down a little.

I was thinking Anderson guarded Luka well later in an couple games in the regular season. He has size and girth and Luka isn't wildly quick so it's a good matchup. That's the thing about the Wolves they have so many guys that can guard a variety of players.

I like the idea of taking away everyone else and basically making Luka beat you himself.

[Q-is-here]

Hey don’t worry guys Draymond will bring great analysis on inside the nba during the series. How on earth does TNT continue to bring this bias idiot back for some cheap clicks.

So dumb that he is going to cover the full series

We've talked about this before...his whole last couple of years and his antics hasn't been about winning games, but reinforcing his tough guy/bad boy brand. It's apparently paid off. I see him on car commercials, he has his own podcast, and now he's on TNT. What a shame.