Wolves Offseason Forward Options

[AussieWolf3]

This isn't about Trey Lyles.

This is about how we are going to fill 48 minutes a night at that position.

And IMO, Lyles fits the type of player we need in that role. A legit-sized 4 who can stretch the floor.

But Lyles averaged 18 minutes off the bench for four years before the Sacramento Kings opted not to keep him at the end of the 2024-25 season. That's not a guy that a serious contender should have to trust with anything more than backup minutes at the 4.

Jaden is an awesome player. I love him. I can see him playing some at the 4 and I'm interested in the kinds of advantages that might bring us at times. But at this point, if we go into the season expecting Jaden to start at the 4 and play the majority of his minutes there with nobody who could legitimately take that starting role from him if and when the negatives outweigh the positives because of the advantages it would give other teams over us (which I laid out in my earlier thread--limiting our options of who to put Jaden on defensively, subjecting ourselves to mismatches our opponents could exploit, etc.), I think we're going into the season taking a huge risk with no serious backup plan and therefore little flexibility. It's basically ceding the ground to our opponents to be able to create mismatches against us and we don't really have the ability to respond.

If we don't add anybody else and Jaden starts at the 4, it will mean one of four things: 1) Jaden will either have to defend bigger guys who will be beating him up night after night and getting him into foul trouble, or 2) other guys (TJ, Ayo, Ant) will have to defend taller guys and have to deal with those disadvantages, or 3) we'd have to rely on a guy who wasn't even in the NBA last year more than a contender should, or 4) we'd have to play Beringer at the 4 next to Rudy and kill our offense.

Why would we go into the season leaving ourselves only those 4 options in a season that is so important?

I respect your viewpoint Drew, but I think your very much over blowing how "beat up" he'd get and if fact he'll likely far less over taxed and foul heavy defending as 4 --- which will be off ball a much higher percentage of the time. The energy drain of chasing around ball handlers and fighting through screens is a fucking grind.

I agree that there is risk here, hopefully one that is mitigated by an additional signing for another backup, but what's confusing to me is the idea that Jaden is optimal on ball which thereby lessens his offensive impact.

Again I ask: has he thrived? One 2nd team All defense is 6 years with highly variant opportunities on offense is hardly my definition of thriving. The Wolves FO insists that there are all these things he can do, all while making him "untouchable" in trades. I don't care what it takes, but can we please just put him in position to actually access this potential and translate it into production?

The most significant questions to ask regarding that are: are other players capable of defending at the point of attack in his stead? Is there a backup PF?

There are reasonable, yet not fully settled answers to those questions currently on the roster with one roster spot left to add more answers

I'll also echo what Monster said about team defense being more important than mono e mono matchups. I'll also add that Julius Randle is and was an amazing 1 on 1 defender.... When he wanted to be. We all remember that game in January or whatever against the Spurs, absolutely amazing stuff--- for one or two possessions. And it didn't do his DRTG a lick of good and it didn't matter two shits in the playoffs. You'd think after spending two seasons with THE prototype PF build, we would understand that might not be the most important factor at the end of the day

[Q-is-here]

I still suspect TC and Finchy don't want to move Jaden away from the SF position he is thriving at, and I give TC more than a 50% chance of adding a true starting PF to the roster...he may very well not be one of our best 5 players (unless it's LBJ), but he will allow Jaden to stay in his natural position.

But if not: Can Jaden play most of his minutes at the 4? The answer is yes, but it's not optimal. I liken it to the question Finchy had to answer at the start of last season after he determined Mike was no longer a suitable starter, and the answer is the same: Can Ant play most of his minutes at PG? Yes, but as we found out, it's not optimal.

Is he thriving?

Great question. FNG says he's "thriving", yet one of his favorite stats is Net On-Off rating. Jaden has been negative in that stat 4 out of 6 seasons, including the last three seasons in a row. This means the team has performed better when he's OFF the court versus ON the court. Again, that's FNG's preferred stat, one that I personally think can be muddied very much by role and context.

Additionally, Jaden has never had better than a 14.0 PER. PER is purely a box-score stat that rewards scoring volume, rebound volume, assist volume, etc., etc. Last year there were well over 100 players with an eligible amount of minutes that did better in that stat than Jaden.

We've talked a lot on here on how being the primary POA defender takes Jaden away from doing better in other areas, such as scoring and rebounding. We know for a fact that he is literally more productive when he plays the PF. He averaged 20 PPG, 8.8 RPG, and 3 APG back in 2024-25 when he played a stretch of six games in a row as our starting PF. Naz was the Center during that stretch, not Rudy as he was hurt.

[60WinTim]

I still suspect TC and Finchy don't want to move Jaden away from the SF position he is thriving at, and I give TC more than a 50% chance of adding a true starting PF to the roster...he may very well not be one of our best 5 players (unless it's LBJ), but he will allow Jaden to stay in his natural position.

But if not: Can Jaden play most of his minutes at the 4? The answer is yes, but it's not optimal. I liken it to the question Finchy had to answer at the start of last season after he determined Mike was no longer a suitable starter, and the answer is the same: Can Ant play most of his minutes at PG? Yes, but as we found out, it's not optimal.

Is he thriving?

Great question. FNG says he's "thriving", yet one of his favorite stats is Net On-Off rating. Jaden has been negative in that stat 4 out of 6 seasons, including the last three seasons in a row. This means the team has performed better when he's OFF the court versus ON the court. Again, that's FNG's preferred stat, one that I personally think can be muddied very much by role and context.

Additionally, Jaden has never had better than a 14.0 PER. PER is purely a box-score stat that rewards scoring volume, rebound volume, assist volume, etc., etc. Last year there were well over 100 players with an eligible amount of minutes that did better in that stat than Jaden.

We've talked a lot on here on how being the primary POA defender takes Jaden away from doing better in other areas, such as scoring and rebounding. We know for a fact that he is literally more productive when he plays the PF. He averaged 20 PPG, 8.8 RPG, and 3 APG back in 2024-25 when he played a stretch of six games in a row as our starting PF. Naz was the Center during that stretch, not Rudy as he was hurt.

I am confident FNG will find a way to blame ANT for Jaden's net on-off rating...

[KiwiMatt]

I’m really perplexed why a majority of people think Jaden playing at the 4 isn’t good.

Offensively it’s a really good fit next to Rudy with Jaden’s ability to hit from deep and dribble drive into the mid range to shoot over opponents. Add to that he has probably the best synergy with Rudy out of any player on last seasons roster.

Defensively there should be no doubt Jaden can hold his own. Personally I think it’s time to get him off ball more and he will benefit from it. Traditional PFs are a thing of the past, as we found out with Julius.

[Lipoli390]

I’m really perplexed why a majority of people think Jaden playing at the 4 isn’t good.

Offensively it’s a really good fit next to Rudy with Jaden’s ability to hit from deep and dribble drive into the mid range to shoot over opponents. Add to that he has probably the best synergy with Rudy out of any player on last seasons roster.

Defensively there should be no doubt Jaden can hold his own. Personally I think it’s time to get him off ball more and he will benefit from it. Traditional PFs are a thing of the past, as we found out with Julius.

I actually get the concern but I think the concern is overblown. Yes, Jaden lacks the bulk of the average NBA PF. However, Jaden’s length matches up with typical PFs. So what does that mean when Jaden matches up against the bulkier PFs? Well, maybe he gets bullied a bit by some of those PFs in certain situations, but Jaden will invariably be faster, more agile and more skilled than the vast majority of those bulkier PFs. So the “mismatch” cuts both ways and the stats Q cited comparing Jaden at PF versus SF offer some insight into Jaden’s advantages at PF. Meanwhile, we have a SG (Edwards) who is bulkier/stronger than just about any other SG or SF and ALSO more athletic and skilled than them. So it does NOT go both ways with Edwards the way it does with Jaden at PF.

[FNG]

Is he thriving?

Great question. FNG says he's "thriving", yet one of his favorite stats is Net On-Off rating. Jaden has been negative in that stat 4 out of 6 seasons, including the last three seasons in a row. This means the team has performed better when he's OFF the court versus ON the court. Again, that's FNG's preferred stat, one that I personally think can be muddied very much by role and context.

Additionally, Jaden has never had better than a 14.0 PER. PER is purely a box-score stat that rewards scoring volume, rebound volume, assist volume, etc., etc. Last year there were well over 100 players with an eligible amount of minutes that did better in that stat than Jaden.

We've talked a lot on here on how being the primary POA defender takes Jaden away from doing better in other areas, such as scoring and rebounding. We know for a fact that he is literally more productive when he plays the PF. He averaged 20 PPG, 8.8 RPG, and 3 APG back in 2024-25 when he played a stretch of six games in a row as our starting PF. Naz was the Center during that stretch, not Rudy as he was hurt.

I am confident FNG will find a way to blame ANT for Jaden's net on-off rating...

Of course, duh!

Jaden is clearly thriving in his role. He’s widely regarded as one of the best wing defenders in the Association, and averaged nearly 15 PPG last season on a team with two ball-dominant very high scorers. And playing on the perimeter rather than banging with guys 50 pounds heavier than him has helped him stay healthy…he’s averaged over 70 games per season for his career.

I know some here want more scoring from Jaden, but when you’re playing on a team with two elite scorers, 15 ppg is pretty good. And with the addition of Ball, Rudy may return to the uber efficient 15 ppg scorer he was in Utah. Add in Ayo, TJ, Bones, and Lyles, and there aren’t that many points to spread around! I’m happy with Jaden taking on the toughest defensive assignment every night while getting his 15 points…let’s not mess with a role he fills so well.

[Monster]

Great question. FNG says he's "thriving", yet one of his favorite stats is Net On-Off rating. Jaden has been negative in that stat 4 out of 6 seasons, including the last three seasons in a row. This means the team has performed better when he's OFF the court versus ON the court. Again, that's FNG's preferred stat, one that I personally think can be muddied very much by role and context.

Additionally, Jaden has never had better than a 14.0 PER. PER is purely a box-score stat that rewards scoring volume, rebound volume, assist volume, etc., etc. Last year there were well over 100 players with an eligible amount of minutes that did better in that stat than Jaden.

We've talked a lot on here on how being the primary POA defender takes Jaden away from doing better in other areas, such as scoring and rebounding. We know for a fact that he is literally more productive when he plays the PF. He averaged 20 PPG, 8.8 RPG, and 3 APG back in 2024-25 when he played a stretch of six games in a row as our starting PF. Naz was the Center during that stretch, not Rudy as he was hurt.

I am confident FNG will find a way to blame ANT for Jaden's net on-off rating...

Of course, duh!

Jaden is clearly thriving in his role. He’s widely regarded as one of the best wing defenders in the Association, and averaged nearly 15 PPG last season on a team with two ball-dominant very high scorers. And playing on the perimeter rather than banging with guys 50 pounds heavier than him has helped him stay healthy…he’s averaged over 70 games per season for his career.

I know some here want more scoring from Jaden, but when you’re playing on a team with two elite scorers, 15 ppg is pretty good. And with the addition of Ball, Rudy may return to the uber efficient 15 ppg scorer he was in Utah. Add in Ayo, TJ, Bones, and Lyles, and there aren’t that many points to spread around! I’m happy with Jaden taking on the toughest defensive assignment every night while getting his 15 points…let’s not mess with a role he fills so well.

Jaden is simply too tall to be chasing guys around on the perimeter. He would have so much more energy to score if he was able to play closer to the paint on defense.

Which narrative about Jaden is actually true? Both? Running his ass off on the perimeter or guarding stinger guys in the paint? Lets be honest there are PFs that would give him sort of a night off. That's probably true on the perimeter especially depending on what wings are still on the roster if he was playing SF.

Lets not mess with anything...he would likely have much more of an advantage scoring against PFs. Regardless Ball might be the guy that really unlocks him especially if he gets this team to actually play with pace. That's where Jaden could really cause problems for other team's is running up and down the court.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

This isn't about Trey Lyles.

This is about how we are going to fill 48 minutes a night at that position.

And IMO, Lyles fits the type of player we need in that role. A legit-sized 4 who can stretch the floor.

But Lyles averaged 18 minutes off the bench for four years before the Sacramento Kings opted not to keep him at the end of the 2024-25 season. That's not a guy that a serious contender should have to trust with anything more than backup minutes at the 4.

Jaden is an awesome player. I love him. I can see him playing some at the 4 and I'm interested in the kinds of advantages that might bring us at times. But at this point, if we go into the season expecting Jaden to start at the 4 and play the majority of his minutes there with nobody who could legitimately take that starting role from him if and when the negatives outweigh the positives because of the advantages it would give other teams over us (which I laid out in my earlier thread--limiting our options of who to put Jaden on defensively, subjecting ourselves to mismatches our opponents could exploit, etc.), I think we're going into the season taking a huge risk with no serious backup plan and therefore little flexibility. It's basically ceding the ground to our opponents to be able to create mismatches against us and we don't really have the ability to respond.

If we don't add anybody else and Jaden starts at the 4, it will mean one of four things: 1) Jaden will either have to defend bigger guys who will be beating him up night after night and getting him into foul trouble, or 2) other guys (TJ, Ayo, Ant) will have to defend taller guys and have to deal with those disadvantages, or 3) we'd have to rely on a guy who wasn't even in the NBA last year more than a contender should, or 4) we'd have to play Beringer at the 4 next to Rudy and kill our offense.

Why would we go into the season leaving ourselves only those 4 options in a season that is so important?

I respect your viewpoint Drew, but I think your very much over blowing how "beat up" he'd get and if fact he'll likely far less over taxed and foul heavy defending as 4 --- which will be off ball a much higher percentage of the time. The energy drain of chasing around ball handlers and fighting through screens is a fucking grind.

I agree that there is risk here, hopefully one that is mitigated by an additional signing for another backup, but what's confusing to me is the idea that Jaden is optimal on ball which thereby lessens his offensive impact.

Again I ask: has he thrived? One 2nd team All defense is 6 years with highly variant opportunities on offense is hardly my definition of thriving. The Wolves FO insists that there are all these things he can do, all while making him "untouchable" in trades. I don't care what it takes, but can we please just put him in position to actually access this potential and translate it into production?

The most significant questions to ask regarding that are: are other players capable of defending at the point of attack in his stead? Is there a backup PF?

There are reasonable, yet not fully settled answers to those questions currently on the roster with one roster spot left to add more answers

I'll also echo what Monster said about team defense being more important than mono e mono matchups. I'll also add that Julius Randle is and was an amazing 1 on 1 defender.... When he wanted to be. We all remember that game in January or whatever against the Spurs, absolutely amazing stuff--- for one or two possessions. And it didn't do his DRTG a lick of good and it didn't matter two shits in the playoffs. You'd think after spending two seasons with THE prototype PF build, we would understand that might not be the most important factor at the end of the day

"he'll likely far less over taxed and foul heavy defending as 4 --- which will be off ball a much higher percentage of the time."

Fair point, except, I would say, for those 6 or so PFs in the Western Conference I mentioned who can and do handle the ball and drive with it. But fair point.

"The energy drain of chasing around ball handlers and fighting through screens is a fucking grind."

Again, true. And I do like having Jaden off the ball defensively because he is a good opportunistic help defender. But this does raise the question of who WILL be our POA defender. I thought Ayo was ok last year, but not as good as NAW was. Clark could be great with that, but then you're really hurting your offense.

It's not that Jaden is necessarily optimal on the ball, it's that you want to have the flexibility to put him on or off ball defensively without sacrificing something, and without another a legit 4 who we can count on for more than 15-20 minutes a night, we don't really have that flexibility. For example, let's say we end up facing the Nuggets again next year and Murray starts torching us with Jaden off the ball. Or SGA? Or Harper? What if the Jazz make a leap and Peterson turns out to be all he's cracked up to be and gets really hot? It just forces us into making sacrifices. Bring on Clark and hurt the offense or use Jaden as a fire blanket and you're leaning on Trey Lyles or forcing everybody else to guard up. With Luka, we honestly probably have to play Jaden on him because there's nobody else who realistically can, so now you'll have to put TJ, Ant, Ayo, or Clark (or Green) onto Mamu, which again, puts those guys into a tough position defensively having to guard up.

"team defense being more important than mono e mono matchups."

Good point. I don't mean to dwell on one-on-one matchups. But for this whole team defense thing to work, especially when we're giving up strength and weight to opponents more this year, Ant and Melo are both going to absolutely get their heads out of their asses on defense. Will they? God I hope so.

"can we please just put him [Jaden] in position to actually access this potential and translate it into production"

I do think it's fair to suspect that it could help open up Jaden's offense by moving him more off the ball on defense. And a part of that is also hopefully making sure there are four floor spacers on the floor with him at all times to open up the middle of the floor for him. (On a side note, I also think adding LaMelo will really help him find scoring opportunities.) But I do fear one thing holding Jaden back offensively has been Jaden himself. He's shown that he can be really agressive out there offensively regardless of the lineup or his defensive assignment, but he just hasn't done it consistently. I do hope this smaller lineup will make this easier for him, but he'll still need to choose to consistently do it. If he does, great! We can add that to the positive side of the chart measuring the outcomes of going small and moving him to the 4. But those potential negatives are still there, and if they come to fruition and if his offense doesn't really consistently grow next year to outweigh them, then we're left probably having to put a lot of hope in Trey Lyles. Again, I like Lyles, I think he's a good fit for what we need, but I just feel a little worried that he's like, the one safety net we've got for this experiment.

You guys have moved my thinking on this Jaden at the 4 thing somewhat. I see the logic in it, and I see more possible positives than before. But I do think there are some real plausible negatives, and without another big (hell, even a big body to throw out there like Leonard Miller would make me feel a little better), it just feels like we're not giving ourselves much lineup flexibility.

[60WinTim]

Yeah, Drew, I have been wishy-washy on the whole "Jaden at PF" thing, too. The one point I would beg to differ is the lineup flexibility -- I think it is a foregone conclusion that our 14th roster spot will go to a big. That will give Finch all sorts of flexibility whether to start Jaden at the 3 or 4. Heck, we might see some experimentation early in the season as Finch figures out what configuration works best.

[Lipoli390]

Yeah, Drew, I have been wishy-washy on the whole "Jaden at PF" thing, too. The one point I would beg to differ is the lineup flexibility -- I think it is a foregone conclusion that our 14th roster spot will go to a big. That will give Finch all sorts of flexibility whether to start Jaden at the 3 or 4. Heck, we might see some experimentation early in the season as Finch figures out what configuration works best.

I agree our 14th roster spot will likely be filled by a big. But if it’s not LeBron, I don’t see any starting caliber PFs among free agents available at the vet minimum. So I don’t see the Wolves signing anyone better than Trey Lyles to slot in as a starting PF unless perhaps the Wolves are willing to settle for a defensive rebounder who can’t shoot starting some games at that position.