60WinTim wrote:Even I, the eternal optimist, am having trouble seeing our way into the playoffs. We have a very tough stretch of games upcoming against good teams. We could see a losing streak hither to unseen. The only ray of hope is we have a 6-game homestand after the Pelicans.
If we do manage to hover around .500 into the all-star break, then maybe, just maybe, we have a shot.
Yup, I've been in that place for a while now, so just trying not to get too upset about the bad losses as it seems like a real uphill climb with KAT out and the various other injuries.
The nature of a .500-ish team is a mix of some bad losses, some great wins, and then a bunch of losses and wins one would expect. All the other teams that have had injury issues in the West are in the same boat - hanging right around or just below .500.
Lots of teams with more vet and playoff experience and infinitely better franchise history are struggling as well regardless of injuries. It's up for grabs. If people don't believe the Wolves can do it that's fair and again injuries both for the Wolves and other teams will play a part.
What's a little interesting is the Wolves according to BB reference are 12th in defensive rating. That's a little disappointing with Gobert on the roster but not that bad. Meanwhile they are 20th in offensive rating. Last year that offensive rating was what turned around big time. Can the Wolves become a better offensive team without Towns (and to some extent McLaughlin) playing games? Honestly I think they can and offense is Finch's strength as a coach. Like last season (ok maybe not THAT good) the Wolves COULD get on track and get on a roll. I also think there is a chance their defense actually improves further than it has and last year they were playing way over expectations in that regard.
We have essentially the same defensive rating we had last season, but we've fallen from 7th offensively to 20th. I'd say that 12th defensively is ok if you're top 10 on the offensive side of the ball. But a prescription for a lottery finish if you're in the bottom third offensively. The Wolves offense needs to start clicking consistently in these last 32 games of the season. Either that or this team needs to become a top 5 defensive team from this point forward.
Can the Wolves win 21 of their next 32 games? That's the challenge. If they do, they'll replicate last season's record and probably end up a top 6 seed or better. The opportunity is there.
60WinTim wrote:Even I, the eternal optimist, am having trouble seeing our way into the playoffs. We have a very tough stretch of games upcoming against good teams. We could see a losing streak hither to unseen. The only ray of hope is we have a 6-game homestand after the Pelicans.
If we do manage to hover around .500 into the all-star break, then maybe, just maybe, we have a shot.
Yup, I've been in that place for a while now, so just trying not to get too upset about the bad losses as it seems like a real uphill climb with KAT out and the various other injuries.
The nature of a .500-ish team is a mix of some bad losses, some great wins, and then a bunch of losses and wins one would expect. All the other teams that have had injury issues in the West are in the same boat - hanging right around or just below .500.
Lots of teams with more vet and playoff experience and infinitely better franchise history are struggling as well regardless of injuries. It's up for grabs. If people don't believe the Wolves can do it that's fair and again injuries both for the Wolves and other teams will play a part.
What's a little interesting is the Wolves according to BB reference are 12th in defensive rating. That's a little disappointing with Gobert on the roster but not that bad. Meanwhile they are 20th in offensive rating. Last year that offensive rating was what turned around big time. Can the Wolves become a better offensive team without Towns (and to some extent McLaughlin) playing games? Honestly I think they can and offense is Finch's strength as a coach. Like last season (ok maybe not THAT good) the Wolves COULD get on track and get on a roll. I also think there is a chance their defense actually improves further than it has and last year they were playing way over expectations in that regard.
We have essentially the same defensive rating we had last season, but we've fallen from 7th offensively to 20th. I'd say that 12th defensively is ok if you're top 10 on the offensive side of the ball. But a prescription for a lottery finish if you're in the bottom third offensively. The Wolves offense needs to start clicking consistently in these last 32 games of the season. Either that or this team needs to become a top 5 defensive team from this point forward.
Can the Wolves win 21 of their next 32 games? That's the challenge. If they do, they'll replicate last season's record and probably end up a top 6 seed or better. The opportunity is there.
Wolves are actually 8th in half court offense and 4th in half court defense. When Rudy is on the floor the wolves are equivalent to the 2nd best defensive team in the NBA. Wolves just need to stop the live ball turnovers and they will skyrocket up the rankings overall. By far the biggest issue with this years team and defensive rebounding.
When the wolves have been able to make it a half court game they are an elite team. Just way to many live ball turnovers
60WinTim wrote:Even I, the eternal optimist, am having trouble seeing our way into the playoffs. We have a very tough stretch of games upcoming against good teams. We could see a losing streak hither to unseen. The only ray of hope is we have a 6-game homestand after the Pelicans.
If we do manage to hover around .500 into the all-star break, then maybe, just maybe, we have a shot.
Yup, I've been in that place for a while now, so just trying not to get too upset about the bad losses as it seems like a real uphill climb with KAT out and the various other injuries.
The nature of a .500-ish team is a mix of some bad losses, some great wins, and then a bunch of losses and wins one would expect. All the other teams that have had injury issues in the West are in the same boat - hanging right around or just below .500.
Lots of teams with more vet and playoff experience and infinitely better franchise history are struggling as well regardless of injuries. It's up for grabs. If people don't believe the Wolves can do it that's fair and again injuries both for the Wolves and other teams will play a part.
What's a little interesting is the Wolves according to BB reference are 12th in defensive rating. That's a little disappointing with Gobert on the roster but not that bad. Meanwhile they are 20th in offensive rating. Last year that offensive rating was what turned around big time. Can the Wolves become a better offensive team without Towns (and to some extent McLaughlin) playing games? Honestly I think they can and offense is Finch's strength as a coach. Like last season (ok maybe not THAT good) the Wolves COULD get on track and get on a roll. I also think there is a chance their defense actually improves further than it has and last year they were playing way over expectations in that regard.
We have essentially the same defensive rating we had last season, but we've fallen from 7th offensively to 20th. I'd say that 12th defensively is ok if you're top 10 on the offensive side of the ball. But a prescription for a lottery finish if you're in the bottom third offensively. The Wolves offense needs to start clicking consistently in these last 32 games of the season. Either that or this team needs to become a top 5 defensive team from this point forward.
Can the Wolves win 21 of their next 32 games? That's the challenge. If they do, they'll replicate last season's record and probably end up a top 6 seed or better. The opportunity is there.
Wolves are actually 8th in half court offense and 4th in half court defense. When Rudy is on the floor the wolves are equivalent to the 2nd best defensive team in the NBA. Wolves just need to stop the live ball turnovers and they will skyrocket up the rankings overall. By far the biggest issue with this years team and defensive rebounding.
When the wolves have been able to make it a half court game they are an elite team. Just way to many live ball turnovers
Kek makes an excellent point about the turnovers. The way the Wolves play is not conducive to taking care of the ball but I do think they can cut those down some and it would make a difference.
Lip the Wolves haven't fallen offensively from where they were last year though. They were about where they were last year at this time. That's the point of my post last year something clicked and then they were one of the best offensive teams in the league the rest of the season. Like I said they don't have Towns but let's say they still click and become say 10th best offensive team and inch up a bit as a defensive team. Top 10 in offense and defense would make a pretty good team and doing that without a couple key players would be kinda impressive. Can/will they do it? I think it's possible. We will see. The big difference from last year to this year is how the Wolves get their offense. This year I believe they score much more in the paint. Last year they scored more from 3 than any team and got to the FT line more. I think we all knew they weren't going to take as many 3's this year but not having Towns hurts more plus he got to the line too. Edwards has taken a step forward in terms of getting to the line so that helps.
One reason the Wolves were good on offense later in the season was they kept Beasley and he shot the heck out of the ball overall. Naz also played well. Can a guy like Nowell become a guy that provides the Wolves with mostly positive minutes overall the last 3 months of the season? Maybe someone else steps up? Maybe Gobert ends up being sort of a catalyst to winning with his play. That's a lot of ifs but last year it wasn't just one thing it was a team effort in turning the season around. I believe this roster even without Towns and McLaughlin has enough talent to get on a roll. Again other teams have their own question marks.
The logjam in the West is still there, but it's nice to see us almost as close to 3rd place (2 games out, with a chance to close within 1 with a win tomorrow) as we are to 11th (1 1/2 games ahead). There are still some scary teams behind us in the standings, but also some teams I think we're better than ahead of us. We could finish as high as 3rd, but in a doomsday scenario (KAT doesn't return and Ant gets hurt) we could finish as low as 13th...what a bizarre season!
With only 1/3 of the season left, the Western Conference remains as jammed up as I can ever remember...and there's no reason to expect the chaos to change. Only 5 1/2 games separate the 3rd place Kings and the 13th place Lakers, and 5 teams (including the Wolves) are only 2 games behind the Clippers for 4th place and home court advantage. Certainly the Irving deal makes Dallas a favorite for moving into that 4th spot, but frankly anything can happen. I might argue that if Towns returns anytime soon, they can make a strong run for the top 4.
There just isn't much to separate the teams in the West this season. 3 pretty good teams are going to find themselves on the outside looking in for the playoffs (I'll predict Portland, Okc and the Jazz), and I don't think there is any team that the Wolves can't beat once the playoffs start...just look at how we match up with Memphis and Denver, even without KAT.
FNG wrote:With only 1/3 of the season left, the Western Conference remains as jammed up as I can ever remember...and there's no reason to expect the chaos to change. Only 5 1/2 games separate the 3rd place Kings and the 13th place Lakers, and 5 teams (including the Wolves) are only 2 games behind the Clippers for 4th place and home court advantage. Certainly the Irving deal makes Dallas a favorite for moving into that 4th spot, but frankly anything can happen. I might argue that if Towns returns anytime soon, they can make a strong run for the top 4.
There just isn't much to separate the teams in the West this season. 3 pretty good teams are going to find themselves on the outside looking in for the playoffs (I'll predict Portland, Okc and the Jazz), and I don't think there is any team that the Wolves can't beat once the playoffs start...just look at how we match up with Memphis and Denver, even without KAT.
It's going to be a fun finish...
Again, I think we need some luck to come our way to get into that top 6. We ran into some luck the other night when Denver sat nearly all their starters. I wonder if we might run into some luck again @Utah on Wednesday, assuming Utah is active at the trade deadline and sends a few vets out before that game. Conley and Beasley may both be on their way out (?).
Curry is hurt for a month...that certainly helps our cause.
Etc. etc.....
We need stuff like this to break our way and we need to stay healthy. Then I think we have a shot.
FNG wrote:With only 1/3 of the season left, the Western Conference remains as jammed up as I can ever remember...and there's no reason to expect the chaos to change. Only 5 1/2 games separate the 3rd place Kings and the 13th place Lakers, and 5 teams (including the Wolves) are only 2 games behind the Clippers for 4th place and home court advantage. Certainly the Irving deal makes Dallas a favorite for moving into that 4th spot, but frankly anything can happen. I might argue that if Towns returns anytime soon, they can make a strong run for the top 4.
There just isn't much to separate the teams in the West this season. 3 pretty good teams are going to find themselves on the outside looking in for the playoffs (I'll predict Portland, Okc and the Jazz), and I don't think there is any team that the Wolves can't beat once the playoffs start...just look at how we match up with Memphis and Denver, even without KAT.
It's going to be a fun finish...
Again, I think we need some luck to come our way to get into that top 6. We ran into some luck the other night when Denver sat nearly all their starters. I wonder if we might run into some luck again @Utah on Wednesday, assuming Utah is active at the trade deadline and sends a few vets out before that game. Conley and Beasley may both be on their way out (?).
Curry is hurt for a month...that certainly helps our cause.
Etc. etc.....
We need stuff like this to break our way and we need to stay healthy. Then I think we have a shot.
Yep, we're going to need some 2021-2 type luck. I'm concerned that the Utah game might be the opposite though. They'll be rested, and we'll be coming off a tough game in Denver with JMac (and perhaps others) likely sitting out. Finchie might "take a loss" like Malone did last game.
FNG wrote:With only 1/3 of the season left, the Western Conference remains as jammed up as I can ever remember...and there's no reason to expect the chaos to change. Only 5 1/2 games separate the 3rd place Kings and the 13th place Lakers, and 5 teams (including the Wolves) are only 2 games behind the Clippers for 4th place and home court advantage. Certainly the Irving deal makes Dallas a favorite for moving into that 4th spot, but frankly anything can happen. I might argue that if Towns returns anytime soon, they can make a strong run for the top 4.
There just isn't much to separate the teams in the West this season. 3 pretty good teams are going to find themselves on the outside looking in for the playoffs (I'll predict Portland, Okc and the Jazz), and I don't think there is any team that the Wolves can't beat once the playoffs start...just look at how we match up with Memphis and Denver, even without KAT.
It's going to be a fun finish...
Again, I think we need some luck to come our way to get into that top 6. We ran into some luck the other night when Denver sat nearly all their starters. I wonder if we might run into some luck again @Utah on Wednesday, assuming Utah is active at the trade deadline and sends a few vets out before that game. Conley and Beasley may both be on their way out (?).
Curry is hurt for a month...that certainly helps our cause.
Etc. etc.....
We need stuff like this to break our way and we need to stay healthy. Then I think we have a shot.
Finchie might "take a loss" like Malone did last game.
The Nuggets had a 5 game lead for the #1 seed.
The Timberwolves need every single win they can to avoid missing the play-in tournament.
They're still only 3 games out of the #13 seed with arguably the hardest schedule in the West the rest of the way.
FNG wrote:With only 1/3 of the season left, the Western Conference remains as jammed up as I can ever remember...and there's no reason to expect the chaos to change. Only 5 1/2 games separate the 3rd place Kings and the 13th place Lakers, and 5 teams (including the Wolves) are only 2 games behind the Clippers for 4th place and home court advantage. Certainly the Irving deal makes Dallas a favorite for moving into that 4th spot, but frankly anything can happen. I might argue that if Towns returns anytime soon, they can make a strong run for the top 4.
There just isn't much to separate the teams in the West this season. 3 pretty good teams are going to find themselves on the outside looking in for the playoffs (I'll predict Portland, Okc and the Jazz), and I don't think there is any team that the Wolves can't beat once the playoffs start...just look at how we match up with Memphis and Denver, even without KAT.
It's going to be a fun finish...
Again, I think we need some luck to come our way to get into that top 6. We ran into some luck the other night when Denver sat nearly all their starters. I wonder if we might run into some luck again @Utah on Wednesday, assuming Utah is active at the trade deadline and sends a few vets out before that game. Conley and Beasley may both be on their way out (?).
Curry is hurt for a month...that certainly helps our cause.
Etc. etc.....
We need stuff like this to break our way and we need to stay healthy. Then I think we have a shot.
Finchie might "take a loss" like Malone did last game.
The Nuggets had a 5 game lead for the #1 seed.
The Timberwolves need every single win they can to avoid missing the play-in tournament.
Yeah, I get that the Nuggets and the Wolves are in different positions. But I would argue that both coaches are smart and looking for ways to keep their players healthy, albeit for different reasons...Malone, because he wants his guys healthy and rested for a deep playoff run, and Finchie because he needs his players healthy to stay in contention for an attractive playoff seeding.
A mile-high back to back in Denver and Utah is as tough as it gets...you don't find many teams going 2-0. I have to believe Finchie would be happy with a 1-1, and I hope he is balancing the best way to accomplish both goals...get a split, and also not wear out (or injure) his players at this critical juncture. Come to think of it, I would have a different strategy if I were in charge. I would put our nicked-up players (JMac, SloMo, Naz, Rudy and Prince for starters) on a plane to SLC this afternoon accompanied by trainers, and return the favor by playing Denver with a depleted team (it could be that Vegas already has a hint we're doing something like that, because an 8 1/2 point spread seems high to me with the Wolves playing as well as they are). Keep our day-to-day guys fresh to give us a better chance against a Utah team that reportedly has a washed-up PG ;-) , and leave the mountains happy with a split. We'll have to see what Finchie does, but I won't be disappointed if he plays for the split.
They're still only 3 games out of the #13 seed with arguably the hardest schedule in the West the rest of the way.
FNG wrote:With only 1/3 of the season left, the Western Conference remains as jammed up as I can ever remember...and there's no reason to expect the chaos to change. Only 5 1/2 games separate the 3rd place Kings and the 13th place Lakers, and 5 teams (including the Wolves) are only 2 games behind the Clippers for 4th place and home court advantage. Certainly the Irving deal makes Dallas a favorite for moving into that 4th spot, but frankly anything can happen. I might argue that if Towns returns anytime soon, they can make a strong run for the top 4.
There just isn't much to separate the teams in the West this season. 3 pretty good teams are going to find themselves on the outside looking in for the playoffs (I'll predict Portland, Okc and the Jazz), and I don't think there is any team that the Wolves can't beat once the playoffs start...just look at how we match up with Memphis and Denver, even without KAT.
It's going to be a fun finish...
Again, I think we need some luck to come our way to get into that top 6. We ran into some luck the other night when Denver sat nearly all their starters. I wonder if we might run into some luck again @Utah on Wednesday, assuming Utah is active at the trade deadline and sends a few vets out before that game. Conley and Beasley may both be on their way out (?).
Curry is hurt for a month...that certainly helps our cause.
Etc. etc.....
We need stuff like this to break our way and we need to stay healthy. Then I think we have a shot.
Finchie might "take a loss" like Malone did last game.
The Nuggets had a 5 game lead for the #1 seed.
The Timberwolves need every single win they can to avoid missing the play-in tournament.
Yeah, I get that the Nuggets and the Wolves are in different positions. But I would argue that both coaches are smart and looking for ways to keep their players healthy, albeit for different reasons...Malone, because he wants his guys healthy and rested for a deep playoff run, and Finchie because he needs his players healthy to stay in contention for an attractive playoff seeding.
A mile-high back to back in Denver and Utah is as tough as it gets...you don't find many teams going 2-0. I have to believe Finchie would be happy with a 1-1, and I hope he is balancing the best way to accomplish both goals...get a split, and also not wear out (or injure) his players at this critical juncture. Come to think of it, I would have a different strategy if I were in charge. I would put our nicked-up players (JMac, SloMo, Naz, Rudy and Prince for starters) on a plane to SLC this afternoon accompanied by trainers, and return the favor by playing Denver with a depleted team (it could be that Vegas already has a hint we're doing something like that, because an 8 1/2 point spread seems high to me with the Wolves playing as well as they are). Keep our day-to-day guys fresh to give us a better chance against a Utah team that reportedly has a washed-up PG ;-) , and leave the mountains happy with a split. We'll have to see what Finchie does, but I won't be disappointed if he plays for the split.
They're still only 3 games out of the #13 seed with arguably the hardest schedule in the West the rest of the way.
It's an interesting idea FNG, but one I'm ultimately not supportive of. I think our players, coaches and front office needs to see how we do playing a top team like Denver on the road when they are at or near full strength. It's a good test for our squad and it helps the front office gather further intelligence on what needs to be improved upon heading into this offseason.
