Sundog60 wrote:I'll just say again that we don't know yet how this team as currently constructed will/can perform, because of the injuries to KAT and JMac. I get the therapeutic benefits of threads like this one, but what ifs don't get us much more than that.
It's not about "what if." Where we might be in the standings now absent the Gobert deal isn't the source of buyers remorse. Buyers remorse comes from where this franchise is positioned going forward relative to how it would be positioned if the deal hadn't been made.
We finished 10 games over .500 last season with the players we had and KAT playing the vast majority of games. Where would we be this season with the same roster, but KAT and JMac missing the games they've missed? I don't know and it doesn't really matter. Ant is significantly better this season than last. McDaniels is better. Beasley is better this season as well. We also have Kyle Anderson and would have had Kessler. Would all that add up to about a .500 record like this season? Probably. There's certainly no evidence that this team wins more when Rudy plays than when he doesn't. But again, it doesn't matter because we would have had all our future picks, an impressive young player in Kessler, and multiple player assets with value - Vanderbilt, Beasley, and Beverley. We also would have had financial flexibility. That would have been a lot to work with to continue building around Edwards and to come back strong next season with KAT's return. Ending up in the lottery would have meant a lottery pick for the Wolves to keep or trade. Instead, it will mean an extra lottery pick for the Jazz whose record is about the same as the Wolves in spite of what they traded away.
One of the many scenarios I mentioned in my initial criticism of the deal was a major injury that would knock the Wolves down in the standings and potentially result in a lottery finish. There were so many risks with the deal and that was only one of them. The point Abe has made is that you don't take those risks to acquire a niche player like Gobert. And now we're seeing the results. Yes, Gobert makes the defense better when he's on the floor versus sitting on the bench in games he plays. But the offense is worse, and more importantly, the team doesn't win more when he's on the floor. That's been true with or without KAT, and while the sample size with KAT is relatively small, it's still a meaningful data point with no countervailing evidence.
It's not hopeless by any stretch. Ant's development is exciting. The organization just needs to manage him diligently - both his minutes on the court and his conditioning off the court. McDaniels hasn't developed as much as I was hoping, but he's definitely improved and continues to show flashes of a potentially elite player. KAT's a perennial all-star still in his prime and the nature of his injury should not impair his play going forward once he's healed. Kyle Anderson was a terrific addition and has another year in his contract with the Wolves. Minott and Garza and really impressive young players in the organization. As I've repeated many times, I'd trade Gobert either now or after the season. We'll get a decent return for him although nothing close to what we gave up - which is itself quite telling. If the Wolves front office has significant doubts about whether they'll re-sign DLO, they can and should trade him before the deadline. I think he'd return a matching longer-term salary and a future 1st round pick.
But there's no doubt the Gobert deal has set this franchise back. The deal was fundamentally flawed at its inception as the vast majority of commentators concluded at the time. I understand how difficult it is as a fan to accept that reality. But the sooner the Wolves front office accepts that reality and begins to deal with it, the better.
