Minnesota Sports Forum

lipoli390 wrote:

60WinTim wrote:Ahh.. I have a bit of internet access on my way to Montevideo!

Nowell is an unrestricted FA, so we have no control over him, and he can't be happy with how this season has unfolded, so I doubt we will see him return.

NAW on the other hand is a restricted FA if the Wolves extend the qualifying offer in excess of 7 mil. That's Prince-like money, so it's unclear if the Wolves would go that route. But if he keeps getting minutes and is productive, showing he can be part of the rotation, then it could be a win-win for him to return to the Wolves on a new deal.

Of course, Lip has already written him off, so there is that...

Adios!

Tim - I'm writing NAW back in. :). It's a small sample size, but so far NAW's defense has been terrific every minute he's been on the court for the Wolves. And he's also been decent on the offensive end. Recall that I wanted the Wolves to draft him, so I'm definitely pulling for him to prove I was right. :).

Seriously, I thought including NAW in the DLO deal was meaningless. But you can now label me intrigued based on what we've seen so far. I still believe Nowell is far more talented than NAW and I'm with FNG is believing the real Nowell is the one we saw last season, not this season. Having said that, I'm all disappointed in Nowell this season and his status as an unrestricted FA makes me wonder whether the Wolves will have much choice in the matter. Is NAW worth the $7 million it would take to make him a restricted free agent? I'd say no if I'm basing my answer solely on his play. But I still see untapped upside and he brings some qualities - defense, energy, toughness - the this team needs. Also, with no cap room, NAW's status gives the Wolves an opportunity to keep him without using their MLE or BAE.

In what way is Nowell more talented than NAW?

I liked NAW coming out of college because of his physical tools and potential. Nowell was on nobody's radar and has really shown nothing to put him on anyone's radar.

NAW is 100% a better fit for any team basketball, I think that has been shown. Nowell will never be more than a microwave scorer every fifth game. The other 4, he hurts you.

TheFuture wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:

60WinTim wrote:Ahh.. I have a bit of internet access on my way to Montevideo!

Nowell is an unrestricted FA, so we have no control over him, and he can't be happy with how this season has unfolded, so I doubt we will see him return.

NAW on the other hand is a restricted FA if the Wolves extend the qualifying offer in excess of 7 mil. That's Prince-like money, so it's unclear if the Wolves would go that route. But if he keeps getting minutes and is productive, showing he can be part of the rotation, then it could be a win-win for him to return to the Wolves on a new deal.

Of course, Lip has already written him off, so there is that...

Adios!

Tim - I'm writing NAW back in. :). It's a small sample size, but so far NAW's defense has been terrific every minute he's been on the court for the Wolves. And he's also been decent on the offensive end. Recall that I wanted the Wolves to draft him, so I'm definitely pulling for him to prove I was right. :).

Seriously, I thought including NAW in the DLO deal was meaningless. But you can now label me intrigued based on what we've seen so far. I still believe Nowell is far more talented than NAW and I'm with FNG is believing the real Nowell is the one we saw last season, not this season. Having said that, I'm all disappointed in Nowell this season and his status as an unrestricted FA makes me wonder whether the Wolves will have much choice in the matter. Is NAW worth the $7 million it would take to make him a restricted free agent? I'd say no if I'm basing my answer solely on his play. But I still see untapped upside and he brings some qualities - defense, energy, toughness - the this team needs. Also, with no cap room, NAW's status gives the Wolves an opportunity to keep him without using their MLE or BAE.

In what way is Nowell more talented than NAW?

I liked NAW coming out of college because of his physical tools and potential. Nowell was on nobody's radar and has really shown nothing to put him on anyone's radar.

NAW is 100% a better fit for any team basketball, I think that has been shown. Nowell will never be more than a microwave scorer every fifth game. The other 4, he hurts you.

These situations always give me pause. Teams tend to overpay on potential rather than going the easier route and signing guys like Rivers to minimum level contracts. How much better does NAW makes us as a team.

sjm34 wrote:
These situations always give me pause. Teams tend to overpay on potential rather than going the easier route and signing guys like Rivers to minimum level contracts. How much better does NAW makes us as a team.

There is a lot of wisdom in those words. I agree. And as Wolves fans have chased potential as much as anyone. I certainly don't want to over pay NAW. Just like I didn't want to over pay DLO. But, if they can reach a reasonable agreement, it's certainly more exciting to have a player with some (potential) upside vs. a guy like Rivers IMO. It's really going to just come down to dollars. We would have same issue with Nowell (Potential vs. Production).

Camden wrote:If the organization extends the qualifying offer, the player is free to sign it at the amount guaranteed for one year and become an unrestricted free agent the following season.

The organization can either choose not to offer it or retract it before the player signs it, but the player will become an unrestricted free agent immediately. They can still work out a deal, but they won't have the ability to match another team's offer sheet.

However, Minnesota also owns Bird Rights on Nickeil Alexander-Walker so they can sign him above the cap without using their mid-level exception. That has value.

I think it's more likely the two sides agree to a multi-year deal and bypass the qualifying offer entirely.

Good post Cam. I was thinking about NAW RFA and I personally don't think right now he is worth over 7 million for one year. However there are a couple advantages to offering that qualifying offer even if there is a real chance NAW signs it for a year and is overpaid.

1. NAW on a 1 year deal gives the Wolves a year to see what they have. Maybe they will have avoided giving a guy X amount of dollars over 3 years that is a vet min guy or fringe NBA player.

2. Being a RFA obviously benefits the Wolves. It's probably gonna scare off teams and so if the Wolves want to resign him to some decent money like let's say 5 million a year or something they might be able to do that since other teams know they will have to pay more than that to get him away from the Wolves.

3. It's a bit of good faith showing they want him around.

Now to the negatives

1. He might not be worth anywhere near that.
2. That could be a chunk of money that moves them towards having to pay the luxury tax if NAW signs it.

Ultimately having the ability to make him a RFA even if they don't do it probably helps their leverage a little and certainly gives them a better chance of keeping him that Nowell.

Meanwhile I think Nowell may be in for a surprise in FA when no team wants to give him much of anything.

TheFuture wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:

60WinTim wrote:Ahh.. I have a bit of internet access on my way to Montevideo!

Nowell is an unrestricted FA, so we have no control over him, and he can't be happy with how this season has unfolded, so I doubt we will see him return.

NAW on the other hand is a restricted FA if the Wolves extend the qualifying offer in excess of 7 mil. That's Prince-like money, so it's unclear if the Wolves would go that route. But if he keeps getting minutes and is productive, showing he can be part of the rotation, then it could be a win-win for him to return to the Wolves on a new deal.

Of course, Lip has already written him off, so there is that...

Adios!

Tim - I'm writing NAW back in. :). It's a small sample size, but so far NAW's defense has been terrific every minute he's been on the court for the Wolves. And he's also been decent on the offensive end. Recall that I wanted the Wolves to draft him, so I'm definitely pulling for him to prove I was right. :).

Seriously, I thought including NAW in the DLO deal was meaningless. But you can now label me intrigued based on what we've seen so far. I still believe Nowell is far more talented than NAW and I'm with FNG is believing the real Nowell is the one we saw last season, not this season. Having said that, I'm all disappointed in Nowell this season and his status as an unrestricted FA makes me wonder whether the Wolves will have much choice in the matter. Is NAW worth the $7 million it would take to make him a restricted free agent? I'd say no if I'm basing my answer solely on his play. But I still see untapped upside and he brings some qualities - defense, energy, toughness - the this team needs. Also, with no cap room, NAW's status gives the Wolves an opportunity to keep him without using their MLE or BAE.

In what way is Nowell more talented than NAW?

I liked NAW coming out of college because of his physical tools and potential. Nowell was on nobody's radar and has really shown nothing to put him on anyone's radar.

NAW is 100% a better fit for any team basketball, I think that has been shown. Nowell will never be more than a microwave scorer every fifth game. The other 4, he hurts you.

First off I'm a big fan of Nowell I think he does have pretty high offensive potential. After this season how likely do I think he is to reach that potential? Idk but I haven't given up on him being a pretty good scorer as a 6th man type. I also think in some ways he has improved as a defensive player the last 2 years. He still isn't good though.

Now when it comes to NAW he doesn't have as high of an offensive potential as a scorer. What I think he has more potential as is a guard that plays more like a PG. im not saying he is a PG but he has more of that in him than Nowell. Nowell before this season I think had potential to be a scorer who made some plays for others. Some of that hasn't been there this year which is another big part of the disappointment in him especially since the Wolves needed that this season. It's unlikely but I can see a path for NAW to be a guy that can play next to Edwards in the backcourt.

Meanwhile defensively from what I have seen it's not even close. Maybe NAW doesn't defend after this year and this stuff is a mirage. I'd say he has more length than Nowell and he seems to have a knack for getting into people and has pretty good hands. He isn't some lock down guy but I like what he does out there. Having a guy that's average to above average defensively compared to someone who kinda sucks is a pretty big difference.

I'll add that Nowell for various reasons really hasn't played all that much. This was THE season he was expected to play legit minutes and he crapped the bed. It's also worth noting that he has had some injuries each season which especially early on were ill timed and robbed him of some opportunities. I would say staying healthy is a bit of a concern. He is hurt right now. Meanwhile NAW is simply played more basketball over the same time. He has had his failures and successes along the way. Both guys have questions about whether or not they can actually hit 3's at acceptable percentages. NAW is hitting them this year. Will that continue? Basically each guy has a good shooting 3 season. I'll take the guy that if he isn't hitting shots he can help you do other things. Nowell has top 6th man really good scorer potential. NAW has that possible do a few things decently and maybe something pretty well complimentary player upside that's quite valuable. Of course ideally you could have both players playing well and play them situationally or even together. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

The Nickeil Alexander-Walker situation is somewhat similar to Jarred Vanderbilt when he was acquired by Minnesota. Low usage, young player without a consistent role who showed flashes of production/potential in limited minutes before becoming a free agent. The main difference, obviously, is Alexander-Walker being set to make $7-million on a qualifying offer, which is a sizable overpay despite being just a one-year commitment.

Minnesota would be wise to not offer that and instead work on a multi-year deal at a lower, team-friendly annual salary with options and non-guaranteed money included. Alexander-Walker does not have much bargaining power, in my opinion, which should put him in a similar corner that Vanderbilt was in.

On another note, if they did offer the qualifying offer and he accepted it, which I think is very likely, then that would be a $7-million expiring contract that could potentially help net them a better player at a later time next season.

Camden wrote:The Nickeil Alexander-Walker situation is somewhat similar to Jarred Vanderbilt when he was acquired by Minnesota. Low usage, young player without a consistent role who showed flashes of production/potential in limited minutes before becoming a free agent. The main difference, obviously, is Alexander-Walker being set to make $7-million on a qualifying offer, which is a sizable overpay despite being just a one-year commitment.

Minnesota would be wise to not offer that and instead work on a multi-year deal at a lower, team-friendly annual salary with options and non-guaranteed money included. Alexander-Walker does not have much bargaining power, in my opinion, which should put him in a similar corner that Vanderbilt was in.

On another note, if they did offer the qualifying offer and he accepted it, which I think is very likely, then that would be a $7-million expiring contract that could potentially help net them a better player at a later time next season.

Good points I didn't think about that money as an expiring deal in a trade.

I wanted to look up the rules for whether or not the Wolves could sign NAW to an extension. It looks like they can since he is on a rookie contract. The benefit of that is they can sign him before FA.

Camden wrote:The Nickeil Alexander-Walker situation is somewhat similar to Jarred Vanderbilt when he was acquired by Minnesota. Low usage, young player without a consistent role who showed flashes of production/potential in limited minutes before becoming a free agent. The main difference, obviously, is Alexander-Walker being set to make $7-million on a qualifying offer, which is a sizable overpay despite being just a one-year commitment.

Minnesota would be wise to not offer that and instead work on a multi-year deal at a lower, team-friendly annual salary with options and non-guaranteed money included. Alexander-Walker does not have much bargaining power, in my opinion, which should put him in a similar corner that Vanderbilt was in.

On another note, if they did offer the qualifying offer and he accepted it, which I think is very likely, then that would be a $7-million expiring contract that could potentially help net them a better player at a later time next season.

Personally I would just utilize the RFA aspect. If a team wants to pay him, then let them. Let the market dictate what to offer him.

Nowell to me has been and still is a Shabazz. Nothing about his play says conducive to team offense or defense. I would bet he is out of the league before I would bet that he has a long career.

sjm34 wrote:

TheFuture wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:

60WinTim wrote:Ahh.. I have a bit of internet access on my way to Montevideo!

Nowell is an unrestricted FA, so we have no control over him, and he can't be happy with how this season has unfolded, so I doubt we will see him return.

NAW on the other hand is a restricted FA if the Wolves extend the qualifying offer in excess of 7 mil. That's Prince-like money, so it's unclear if the Wolves would go that route. But if he keeps getting minutes and is productive, showing he can be part of the rotation, then it could be a win-win for him to return to the Wolves on a new deal.

Of course, Lip has already written him off, so there is that...

Adios!

Tim - I'm writing NAW back in. :). It's a small sample size, but so far NAW's defense has been terrific every minute he's been on the court for the Wolves. And he's also been decent on the offensive end. Recall that I wanted the Wolves to draft him, so I'm definitely pulling for him to prove I was right. :).

Seriously, I thought including NAW in the DLO deal was meaningless. But you can now label me intrigued based on what we've seen so far. I still believe Nowell is far more talented than NAW and I'm with FNG is believing the real Nowell is the one we saw last season, not this season. Having said that, I'm all disappointed in Nowell this season and his status as an unrestricted FA makes me wonder whether the Wolves will have much choice in the matter. Is NAW worth the $7 million it would take to make him a restricted free agent? I'd say no if I'm basing my answer solely on his play. But I still see untapped upside and he brings some qualities - defense, energy, toughness - the this team needs. Also, with no cap room, NAW's status gives the Wolves an opportunity to keep him without using their MLE or BAE.

In what way is Nowell more talented than NAW?

I liked NAW coming out of college because of his physical tools and potential. Nowell was on nobody's radar and has really shown nothing to put him on anyone's radar.

NAW is 100% a better fit for any team basketball, I think that has been shown. Nowell will never be more than a microwave scorer every fifth game. The other 4, he hurts you.

These situations always give me pause. Teams tend to overpay on potential rather than going the easier route and signing guys like Rivers to minimum level contracts. How much better does NAW makes us as a team.

I will give Rivers one benefit of the doubt - the guy gets called for the most phantom fouls I have ever seen. His defense is excellent, but he misses way too many wide open shots. At this point, I would rather see his roster spot taken by a younger guy.

If you pit Nowell and NAW against each other, there really isn't a long-term discussion to be made. One shoots better, can play within a system, is better defensively and the other can get his in spurts, is not a good off-ball player, nor good defensively.

NAW is better than Nowell.

TheFuture wrote:

Camden wrote:The Nickeil Alexander-Walker situation is somewhat similar to Jarred Vanderbilt when he was acquired by Minnesota. Low usage, young player without a consistent role who showed flashes of production/potential in limited minutes before becoming a free agent. The main difference, obviously, is Alexander-Walker being set to make $7-million on a qualifying offer, which is a sizable overpay despite being just a one-year commitment.

Minnesota would be wise to not offer that and instead work on a multi-year deal at a lower, team-friendly annual salary with options and non-guaranteed money included. Alexander-Walker does not have much bargaining power, in my opinion, which should put him in a similar corner that Vanderbilt was in.

On another note, if they did offer the qualifying offer and he accepted it, which I think is very likely, then that would be a $7-million expiring contract that could potentially help net them a better player at a later time next season.

Personally I would just utilize the RFA aspect. If a team wants to pay him, then let them. Let the market dictate what to offer him.

Nowell to me has been and still is a Shabazz. Nothing about his play says conducive to team offense or defense. I would bet he is out of the league before I would bet that he has a long career.

That's a fine opinion to have except if Minnesota extends the qualifying offer to him, then I think he takes it and now you have Nickeil Alexander-Walker making $7-million next year with the ability to walk as an unrestricted free agent the following summer. He might be able to command approximately half of that annually on a multi-year deal.