Conley Trade

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

It's probably too early to "give credit where it's due" when it's only been seven games. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is an intriguing young player, and the draft picks may or may not be meaningful down the road, but the team is still performing worse overall after the trade in terms of net rating. Let's see how the rest of the season goes and what they can turn Mike Conley Jr. into this summer or next year.

It was a fleecing my friend.

They're literally a worse team at the moment because of that trade. Perhaps give it time to see if that corrects itself.

This is simply not true. Take away KAT from last year's team and we don't make the playoffs. The team is playing .500+ ball this year without KAT.

The Timberwolves are 3-4 with a 107.8 ORtg, 111.5 DRtg, and -3.7 NetRtg in their last seven games, or since the trade was finalized.

Minnesota was 29-28 with a 112.8 ORtg, 112.6 DRtg, and +0.2 NetRtg in 57 games leading up to the trade. Those numbers are much better if you sort since January as I've talked about before.

That in-between game against Utah isn't included in either pre or post-trade sample. Minnesota would still have a negative net rating if you included it in the post-trade group of games, however.

Simply, the parading here is unjustified at this moment. It seems premature. Give it more time to see if these numbers correct themselves as time progresses. They'll receive proper credit -- or blame -- by the end of the season, I'm sure. Plenty of schedule left for us to judge.

[60WinTim]

Sorry for making you look all that stuff up, Cam. I edited my post noting that I misinterpreted what you said...

However, I do believe the numbers will build steadily in favor of the trade as the season plays out.

[Monster]

I think we need to give credit where it's due. Connelly was able to get NAW and 3 2nd round picks as throw-ins for the Russell-Conley swap. Hopefully the Gobert trade will be a rare black mark on his Wolves resume.

It's still very early. But since you tee'd it up, here are the early VORP returns:

[table]
[tr]
[th]Player[/th]
[th]Games[/th]
[th]VORP[/th]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]DLO[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]0.1[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Conley[/td]
[td]7[/td]
[td]0.1[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]NAW[/td]
[td]6[/td]
[td]0.0[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

So, it's a push at this point, which would be a "win" for us considering we accumulated three additional picks. But I think we know the real point of the trade was not so much DLO vs. Conley, but more what Conley might do for Rudy's game. Here's Rudy's per game splits before and after the trade:

[table]
[tr]
[th]Time Frame[/th]
[th]PPG[/th]
[th]RPG[/th]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Pre-Trade[/td]
[td]13.2[/td]
[td]11.4[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Post-Trade[/td]
[td]16.8[/td]
[td]12.3[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

The post trade splits are pretty much in line with what Rudy put up his last three (All Star) years in Utah. Let's hope that keeps up.

Just for fun with small VORP samples...NAW's 0 is better than Austin Rivers -0.2 and Nowell at -0.1 but equal to a guy like Matt Ryan 0.0 who had gotten some of those SF minutes when Prince is out. One of the reasons this trade currently looks favorable is NAW actually looks like an improvement over some guys that have played plenty of minutes for the Wolves this season. IF that continues it would be a pretty nice move even if Conley ends up being some sort of downgrade from what Russell would bring. I'm looking forward to see how it pans out.

[Carlos Danger]

Just for fun with small VORP samples...NAW's 0 is better than Austin Rivers -0.2 and Nowell at -0.1 but equal to a guy like Matt Ryan 0.0 who had gotten some of those SF minutes when Prince is out. One of the reasons this trade currently looks favorable is NAW actually looks like an improvement over some guys that have played plenty of minutes for the Wolves this season. IF that continues it would be a pretty nice move even if Conley ends up being some sort of downgrade from what Russell would bring. I'm looking forward to see how it pans out.

I think that is another good point. The domino effect which bumped Forbes off the roster and moved NAW to the top of the new pecking order. And yes - full disclosure, we are all looking at way too small of samples. Obviously it's just all for fun and we have to wait to see how it all plays out.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Sorry for making you look all that stuff up, Cam. I edited my post noting that I misinterpreted what you said...

However, I do believe the numbers will build steadily in favor of the trade as the season plays out.

All good! I know we see that transaction differently. I do think we need to let it play out more, as you noted too, before claiming it a good move let alone a fleece as others might claim.

I'm also aware that if I don't explain where I'm coming from or provide some statistical context for my comment, even at a basic level such as team ratings, the conversation has the potential to spiral into something it shouldn't.

[Coolbreeze44]

I put about zero stock in a sample size as small as 7 games. It's a bit insulting to pull up a single stat and try to tell us it means anything. What I do put stock in is a broader history. Even if you would consider DLO and Conley to be a wash (personally I think Conley > DLO), it's the rest of the deal that has me excited. It's too early to tell if NAW can continue to impress, but 3 second round picks is at least as good as a mid to late first. The other very encouraging part of the deal to me is now when teams come up to screen Jaden off his man, they now have to contend with Conley, Ant, Slomo or NAW on the switch. It's a huge improvement over having DLO now guard Jaden's cover, or even not being able to switch at all and breaking down our defense. I really like our team defense now.

[thedoper]

The early returns were looking bleak but the last 2 games have impressed me both on the Conley and NAW front. I think we need more time to make a definitive proclamation about the trade, especially using stats to do so. I do agree that pointing out NAW becoming potentially more than a throw in is a significant potential plus in this deal and could be an example of Connelly's talent in the margins.

[Sundog]

I liked the trade when it happened, and like it more now that we see NAW's production. But it also helps Dlo has been out -- it would have been painful to watch him cook the Wolves last night!

[mjs34]

I don't put much weight into NAW. We essentially get a two month trial to see how he fits, but he is ultimately a FA at the end of the year. Cam says he has a QO of 7 mil which I don't see the wolves shelling out, so it is likely we will be bidding against other teams for his services. The better he plays, the more he makes.

[FNG]

Based on what has happened so far, I'm not sure why a discussion of who won this trade is very relevant right now. We got a PG who is healthy and seems to have greatly improved our defense, a promising young wing who has already become part of our rotation, and a couple draft picks, and we only gave up a PG who has only played in 4 of the 8 games since the trade. Not much to discuss here...grand theft larceny! Now, it's only been a couple weeks, so it's way too early to conclude on anything...obviously, much can change. But I think most of us here would say the early returns look pretty good!