Some green shoots rising up from the ashes

[Tactical unit]

I've avoided the boards because I got nothing but negative vibes for this team. I am hoping for a major shake up before or near the trade deadline to restore my hope.

Not very happy with how this turned out and I'll leave it at that.

[FNG]

Since Kat went down Edwards is 24.9ppg 47%fg 40.7 3pt% 6.3rb 5.5ast 2.5stl .9blk

He is really the magic mushroom on this turd pile.

Yes, very good, although I see you left out the turnovers! Still, the other stuff shows excellent progress after a slow start. What's amazing though is that even if these were his season numbers, he'd probably still be outside the top 20-25 players in the NBA statistically. The league this year is THAT good.

We need to re-calibrate what is considered greatness, because the sheer number of players putting up "great" numbers is unprecedented.

I'd argue that one of the issues we have as a team this season is that we rarely play a team where Ant or Gobert are the best player on the floor. The opposing team almost always has a player (or two) better than either of them. Ant and Gobert are very good players, but neither are among the top 25 in the league this year.

So for Ant to be in the top 25, he actually needs to do even better than the numbers you quote above. Lucky for us, he's only 21.

And there you hit on the biggest difference between this season and last, Q. Yes, there are many stars in this league that can beat you, but last year those stars were injured more often than not when the Wolves faced them, and our stars were mostly healthy. This year our best player has missed almost half of our games (and our three most important reserves have been sidelined often), and our opponents have been much healthier than us. It's a complete reversal, and the idea that circumstances might even out as the season progresses gives me some hope.

But having said that, I agree with your main point. Ant and Rudy have the potential to be top 25 players (as does KAT), but none of the three has looked like a top 25 player so far this season. If we get at least two of them playing up to their enormous potential, and the injury imbalance corrects itself, I still see us challenging for a top 4 seed...we're still only 4 games back!

[Q-is-here]

Since Kat went down Edwards is 24.9ppg 47%fg 40.7 3pt% 6.3rb 5.5ast 2.5stl .9blk

He is really the magic mushroom on this turd pile.

Yes, very good, although I see you left out the turnovers! Still, the other stuff shows excellent progress after a slow start. What's amazing though is that even if these were his season numbers, he'd probably still be outside the top 20-25 players in the NBA statistically. The league this year is THAT good.

We need to re-calibrate what is considered greatness, because the sheer number of players putting up "great" numbers is unprecedented.

I'd argue that one of the issues we have as a team this season is that we rarely play a team where Ant or Gobert are the best player on the floor. The opposing team almost always has a player (or two) better than either of them. Ant and Gobert are very good players, but neither are among the top 25 in the league this year.

So for Ant to be in the top 25, he actually needs to do even better than the numbers you quote above. Lucky for us, he's only 21.

And there you hit on the biggest difference between this season and last, Q. Yes, there are many stars in this league that can beat you, but last year those stars were injured more often than not when the Wolves faced them, and our stars were mostly healthy. This year our best player has missed almost half of our games (and our three most important reserves have been sidelined often), and our opponents have been much healthier than us. It's a complete reversal, and the idea that circumstances might even out as the season progresses gives me some hope.

But having said that, I agree with your main point. Ant and Rudy have the potential to be top 25 players (as does KAT), but none of the three has looked like a top 25 player so far this season. If we get at least two of them playing up to their enormous potential, and the injury imbalance corrects itself, I still see us challenging for a top 4 seed...we're still only 4 games back!

Exactly. And some of the younger players, like SGA for example, have made significant leaps. Ant hasn't, plain and simple. That doesn't mean he won't make a leap at some point in the future and may be it's happening right now as Doper pointed out. But frankly, 24 PPG on 57 TS% with a handful of rebounds and assists is good, but not truly great, these days. It's crazy how good you have to be in order to be considered a top 25 player this year. We have no one performing at that level right now.

[thedoper]

Ants averages since Kat has been out are within the top 25 in PPG, Assists, and steals. I dont know what criteria would be used to say definitively that a player is top 25 but Ant is definitely in the conversation, which is more than can be said for any other player on our team. Either way if we are looking for any glimmer of hope on this team it is the 21 year old who clearly a good player and is in the conversation for becoming a great player.

[Q-is-here]

I know this thread is about green shoots of positivity, so it's notable that I didn't list Ant, as Doper pointed out. If you want to know one reason why, go look at Tyrese Halliburton, who is from the same draft class, and the impact he is having on Indiana. So far he is the best all-around player from that draft. And that shouldn't come as a complete shock, as Abe had him pegged as potentially the best prospect early on. He's been proven right....so far.

[Q-is-here]

Ants averages since Kat has been out are within the top 25 in PPG, Assists, and steals. I dont know what criteria would be used to say definitively that a player is top 25 but Ant is definitely in the conversation, which is more than can be said for any other player on our team. Either way if we are looking for any glimmer of hope on this team it is the 21 year old who clearly a good player and is in the conversation for becoming a great player.

Understood, but we are evaluating the full season so far, not just a subset. And ultimately, Ant needs to be able thrive with KAT! Additionally, even when I look at that slice of games, he STILL isn't in the top 25 in most advanced stats because of the turnovers. I know that seems like a silly little thing, but it does weigh him down a bit.

I am by no means suggesting that Ant can't continue to improve, but he simply isn't in the same class as most of the top NBA perimeter threats in terms of his b-ball IQ. Hopefully he will be by the time he is in his mid 20s.

[thedoper]

Ants averages since Kat has been out are within the top 25 in PPG, Assists, and steals. I dont know what criteria would be used to say definitively that a player is top 25 but Ant is definitely in the conversation, which is more than can be said for any other player on our team. Either way if we are looking for any glimmer of hope on this team it is the 21 year old who clearly a good player and is in the conversation for becoming a great player.

Understood, but we are evaluating the full season so far, not just a subset. And ultimately, Ant needs to be able thrive with KAT! Additionally, even when I look at that slice of games, he STILL isn't in the top 25 in most advanced stats because of the turnovers. I know that seems like a silly little thing, but it does weigh him down a bit.

I am by no means suggesting that Ant can't continue to improve, but he simply isn't in the same class as most of the top NBA perimeter threats in terms of his b-ball IQ. Hopefully he will be by the time he is in his mid 20s.

And yet Ants net rtg of .5 is better than Haliburton's -.1 who you just praised.

[Monster]

Good stuff Q.

As for Naz Reid the Wolves have his Bird Rights they could in theory sign him to a massive deal if they wanted to and he would have a small cap hold as an FA until they officially did it. Same with Nowell who isn't on your list which is certainly disappointing. Ultimately if Nowell continues to struggle with consistency this year and the Wolves are able to resign him back and he makes the progression some of us hope/expect...it could be a good thing he didn't put it together this season. Unfortunately the timing of these guys being unrestricted FA this offseason isn't too great for the Wolves. Unless something has changed significantly the last few months there will be a lot of teams with loads of money to spend this offseason. That doesn't guarantee Naz or Nowell will get great offers (relatively speaking) and/or better roles on another team but it's VERY different than last offseason when only a couple teams had more than the mid-level to offer.

Would it be beneficial to try and trade Naz/DLO/Nowell at the deadline since they all on expiring deals? Shouldn't the front office already know if they want these guys back or not? How likely would it be to sign these guys at this point if they haven't committed to them already? I guess I never really pay attention to that stuff. Maybe this is normal. But I was thinking they would already have deals by now if they had any of those guys as part of the future here. I'm not saying dump them for garbage back. All three of those guys are useful pieces. But if they don't want to sign here or we can't afford them, then maybe flip them for something else (assuming we get value back)?

Sure it would make sense to deal those guys for value. The problem is we don't know what kind of value they have. Naz value is very likely going up but he is a FA at the end of the season and like I said lots of teams have space. The fact that a team would have Naz's bird rights could benefit some teams that won't have cap space. For example of the Wolves were acquiring a PG version of Naz Reid a promising young player that was a FA but might get paid more than what they could offer...then trading for them might be good. What's Nowell really worth on the open market? 2nd round pick? The good thing about Naz and Nowell is they are making very little money so they would be easy to move to a new team in terms of salary.

Russell is paid 30 million this year and teams have to match salary. It's really gonna be difficult to find a deal where the Wolves get much value back because of that. lol at the return for guys that made much less in Bogdonovic and Beverly. It's not that Russell sucks it's just the salary keeps him from being easily moved.

As a I said in a post a few weeks ago it's possible all these guys leave and the Wolves get nothing. Sounds bad right? It would be but it also means the Wolves would have 3 open roster spots and a clear open spot for a starting PG which could mean they get a player who picks a starting role over the most money. They might be able to sign a number of different players with other roster spots that could end up being fairly valuable. After struggling early (at least hitting shots) Austin Rivers looks like a nice pickup. Having open roster spots can mean you get a guy someone else doesn't want for basically free. It's not like other sports where you get some sort of draft compensation when some players leave but I'd argue that the NBA currently roster spots are maybe more valuable than other major sports.

Does the front office want these guys back? Probably...especially depending on the price. Let's be honest Nowell...we really don't know what he is gonna be yet. What will be his price? He might still come back especially if Russell leaves. Speaking of Russell I don't think we know for sure yet on him either. If he comes back for a reasonable salary (different people will say different numbers) then sure especially depending on what other options are out there. One thing Connelly has experience doing in the past is getting value from guys that he acquired/drafted etc that after a while weren't going to end up back on Denver's roster. Maybe he is able to do that this trade deadline or maybe the value isn't there or maybe the team has started to come together at that point. It happened last year and it's happened to other teams in the past that had legit talent. There is time for things to come together so we will see what happens. Maybe they should be dealing Austin Rivers too right?

[Q-is-here]

In the absence of a true star performer on this year's squad, we're going to have to follow the Clippers model

Ants averages since Kat has been out are within the top 25 in PPG, Assists, and steals. I dont know what criteria would be used to say definitively that a player is top 25 but Ant is definitely in the conversation, which is more than can be said for any other player on our team. Either way if we are looking for any glimmer of hope on this team it is the 21 year old who clearly a good player and is in the conversation for becoming a great player.

Understood, but we are evaluating the full season so far, not just a subset. And ultimately, Ant needs to be able thrive with KAT! Additionally, even when I look at that slice of games, he STILL isn't in the top 25 in most advanced stats because of the turnovers. I know that seems like a silly little thing, but it does weigh him down a bit.

I am by no means suggesting that Ant can't continue to improve, but he simply isn't in the same class as most of the top NBA perimeter threats in terms of his b-ball IQ. Hopefully he will be by the time he is in his mid 20s.

And yet Ants net rtg of .5 is better than Haliburton's -.1 who you just praised.

Right, but there are 4 other players on the floor with that stat, so it can be a crude indicator of effectiveness with anything other than massive sample sizes across multiple contexts. I look at it over multiple seasons, thus my general dislike for DLO and Zach LaVine, who do poorly in that stat nearly every season across multiple teams, coaches, etc..

If you look at all of the other comprehensive advanced stats, Haliburton is better: WS/48, PER, BPM, VORP, and EPM....It's not even close unfortunately.

[Lipoli390]

While the season is far from over, it certainly has not gone according to plan. We aren't even threatening the Vegas line at this point.....

But, there are some positive trends to take note of:

- Jaden McDaniels continues his slow, but steady, climb. His advanced stats are up ACROSS THE BOARD. PER, WS/48, TS%, BPM, VORP, Net Rating....you name it, it's better than last year. And last year was better than the year before. So we are talking about linear improvement here. Not in a "shot out of a cannon" way, but slow and steady. That means it's not due to just some hot run of play. This is hugely important to our future!

- Naz Reid is a legit starting NBA Center. Like Jaden, except with one more year of experience, he has slowly and steadily improved his body and his game. I don't think he is a great fit as a starting Center for all teams, as he is still a bit undersized, but teams that already have decent size and strength at other positions could easily slot him in as a starter if they needed a Center. Do we hold his bird rights? He gives us options in the event we decide to do a massive pivot away from either Gobert or KAT.

- Austin Rivers was a great free agent signing. Under a scenario where we actually regain health and form and make a playoff push in the 2nd half of this season, he could end up being extremely valuable. He is easily our best defensive guard on the roster and he seems to be embracing that role. And now that his 3-ball is falling with consistency, he could be an ideal complimentary piece off the bench for us.

- DLO has turned around his season after a miserable start. Whether you believe we ultimately need to get rid of him or not, the reality is he's on the roster and we need him to play well in order to make a playoff push. While he still gets torched on defense and makes careless turnovers, his shot making has improved considerably of late. And more than anything, we need him to make his shots.

Did I miss anyone or anything? These were the ones that stuck out the most to me.

Q - I think you captured all the positives so far this season except for Ant's improvement, but Doper's already pointed tha out. He's been playing at an all-star level the last dozen games. He's been elite or very good in every phase of the game except turnovers. I'll add that Kyle Anderson has looked good on the court even if his stats don't jump off the page. I still like that signing. These are the things we all wanted and to some extent expected to see to build on the team's strong finish last season. The overall team impact of these positive trends has been distorted and blunted by the Gobert trade. But perhaps this will all come together over the remaining 60% of the season. All it will take is a couple 5-game winning streaks with a solitary loss between them to put this team into a position from which they can ultimately fulfill the lofty expectations that came with the Gobert deal. So I think they'll ultimately meet those expectations? No. But the window of opportunity hasn't closed entirely yet.