Wolves 2022-23 Outlook

[Lipoli390]

https://twitter.com/JaceFrederick/status/1584386519577808897?s=20&t=r3Ea6-n9gaOnYWVDUx79QA

Interesting. JMac looking really good.

[Q-is-here]

https://twitter.com/JaceFrederick/status/1584386519577808897?s=20&t=r3Ea6-n9gaOnYWVDUx79QA

Interesting. JMac looking really good.

Still waaaaaaay too early to look at individual net ratings and conclude anything from them.

[FNG]

https://twitter.com/JaceFrederick/status/1584386519577808897?s=20&t=r3Ea6-n9gaOnYWVDUx79QA

Interesting. JMac looking really good.

Still waaaaaaay too early to look at individual net ratings and conclude anything from them.

I don't think anyone would argue with that. But the early numbers match what I've been seeing in the first three games...the energy level seems to ratchet up considerably when this deep team brings players off the bench. On offense players begin moving without the ball because they believe they have a better chance of getting the ball, and the defense around the perimeter is tighter. Gobert is always going to be Gobert, but other than him most of the defensive intensity and effectiveness seems to be coming from our bench. Through the first 3 games, opponents have scored 16.9 fewer points per 100 possessions when JMac is on the court compared to when he is on the bench. Prince is an impressive -15.8, Naz is a -8.2, and even Jaylen Nowell is a -5.2. Only Rudy (-10.5) has a good defensive metric among our starters. While I want more from our starters, this is a really nice preliminary indicator of what our bench can bring us this season.

Disclaimer: One number doesn't match what my eye test is showing me. Opponents are scoring 21.8 more points per 100 possessions when Jaden is on the court. He tends to draw the toughest wing assignment every night and he appears to be handling his role well. That's a good example of what Q is saying...that stats can be dangerous in a small sample size. Still, other than Jaden, most of the deep analytics through 3 games match my eye test. Keep it up bench!

[Tactical unit]

What has this team shown to think they have gotten over the things that plagued them in the playoffs last year?

Still embracing hero ball.
Time to be great yet we lack hustle and effort.
This bunch is still a highly emotional complaining oriented group.

Maybe I just expect too much and more time is needed cause it's early right?

I really don't want to hear it's early, when you overpay for DPOY type and trade away role players and bring in new talent.

Wolves 2022-23 Outlook = Exposable team that needs to take massive strides.

[D-Mac [enjin:19736340]]

What has this team shown to think they have gotten over the things that plagued them in the playoffs last year?

Still embracing hero ball.
Time to be great yet we lack hustle and effort.
This bunch is still a highly emotional complaining oriented group.

Maybe I just expect too much and more time is needed cause it's early right?

I really don't want to hear it's early, when you overpay for DPOY type and trade away role players and bring in new talent.

Wolves 2022-23 Outlook = Exposable team that needs to take massive strides.

It's not too early and you're exactly right.

[Tactical unit]

What has this team shown to think they have gotten over the things that plagued them in the playoffs last year?

Still embracing hero ball.
Time to be great yet we lack hustle and effort.
This bunch is still a highly emotional complaining oriented group.

Maybe I just expect too much and more time is needed cause it's early right?

I really don't want to hear it's early, when you overpay for DPOY type and trade away role players and bring in new talent.

Wolves 2022-23 Outlook = Exposable team that needs to take massive strides.

It's not too early and you're exactly right.

My post was made right before tip off, before the Spurs loss.

Easiest bet of the year going against the Wolves vs HOF coach and a hungry Spurs team.

I'm actually worried for this team, they look soft with out Bev demanding intensity and V8 setting a relentless example.

[FNG]

Jon K said on the Barreiro show today that Pop would have yanked his starting lineup after the opponent got the first 7 points of the second half. The problem is this is the 4th straight game we have been blown out in the third quarter. The NBA definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result. DLo is our starting PG and should be. But he has also come out totally flat at both ends of the game after all 4 halftimes this season. Let DLo start and finish games if he is playing well, but I'd like to see JMac at the point to open the 3rd quarter tomorrow night. I don't want to see another 3rd quarter collapse.

[Lipoli390]

https://theathletic.com/3723255/2022/10/25/timberwolves-spurs-final-score/

Jon K nailed it with this take on the Wolves in the aftermath of the Spurs debacle. Here are some key excerpts from the article:

There was no such subtlety to Wolves coach Chris Finch's assessment of a 115-106 loss to the Spurs on Monday night, a game in which the Timberwolves trailed a well-coached, organized and far less talented team by 20 points in the first half and as many as 35 in the fourth quarter.

"They just outpunked us in every way possible," Finch said. "Outran us, outcompeted us, out-physicaled us. It was ugly and unacceptable."

The problems that the Timberwolves had on Monday night against San Antonio seemed more deeply rooted, and thus more concerning. Playing a team with nowhere near the talent that they have, they allowed the Spurs to run circles around them all night long, a bigger indictment on their hearts than on their ability.

"We knew they're a hard playing team and this is two hard-playing teams that have come in here and played the game the right way and made more efforts than us," Finch said. "Those aren't things that we certainly can tolerate."

There are plenty around the league with doubts that a Karl-Anthony Towns-Gobert frontcourt pairing can work from a schematic standpoint. In this wipeout, there were plenty of systematic breakdowns. It generally took the Spurs no more than two passes to get a wide open shot against the slow-footed halfcourt defense. The Wolves were even worse in transition, getting outscored 24-2 through the first three quarters. And they were 8-for-31 (.258) from 3-point range, including 4-for-21 (.190) through the first three quarters before padding their stats in garbage time.

I've bolded the most telling passages and quotes. Comments and observations like: "Getting outrun, outcompeted and out-physicaled." "Made more effort than us." "Slow-footed half-court defense." Those comments or observations, especially the ones from Finchy are especially troublesome.

[kekgeek]

I honestly think the biggest issue with this team right now is 3 pt shooting. They are missing open shot after open shot. Prince is knocking down his 3s and Dlo is hitting his 3s at a respectable rate but the rest of the team is way below expected value.

I mean Kat is shooting 31% from 3 for one of the best shooters in the NBA, Ant is shooting 25% for a guy who through his 1st 2 years well fiddle with all time 3 pt make records. Nowell shooting terribly. Mcdaniels, Forbes, Rivers, Anderson and Gobert (not expecting him to) have yet to hit a 3 this year.

9 of the wolves top 12 rotation guys have been pathetic behind the arc this year. 2 starters have yet to hit a 3 this year (gobert probably won't). Naz is 3rd on the team with a below average 33%.

Honestly believe a lot of the issues fix themselves when those shots start going in. Because missed 3s (and there have been a lot of them) lead to not setting your defense, leads to long rebounds, that lead to fast break opportunities.

Outside of Prince and Dlo the wolves can't shoot the ball worse this season and they are still 2-2.

Long season boys

[Lipoli390]

I honestly think the biggest issue with this team right now is 3 pt shooting. They are missing open shot after open shot. Prince is knocking down his 3s and Dlo is hitting his 3s at a respectable rate but the rest of the team is way below expected value.

I mean Kat is shooting 31% from 3 for one of the best shooters in the NBA, Ant is shooting 25% for a guy who through his 1st 2 years well fiddle with all time 3 pt make records. Nowell shooting terribly. Mcdaniels, Forbes, Rivers, Anderson and Gobert (not expecting him to) have yet to hit a 3 this year.

9 of the wolves top 12 rotation guys have been pathetic behind the arc this year. 2 starters have yet to hit a 3 this year (gobert probably won't). Naz is 3rd on the team with a below average 33%.

Honestly believe a lot of the issues fix themselves when those shots start going in. Because missed 3s (and there have been a lot of them) lead to not setting your defense, leads to long rebounds, that lead to fast break opportunities.

Outside of Prince and Dlo the wolves can't shoot the ball worse this season and they are still 2-2.

Long season boys

3-point shooting has definitely been one of this team's problems thus far this season. The stats speak for themselves in that regard. But the team's head coach is the one telling us that the team has lacked effort, competitiveness and physicality. And Finchy's comments align with what I've seen. Jon K is a pretty astute observer and he commented that the Spurs were getting wide open looks on no more than 2 passes against what Jon described as the Wolves "slow-footed defense." The 3-point shooting will likely come around - at least for KAT -- and that will help. But if the Wolves don't fix the other problems that the head coach has identified then this will be a painful season for Wolves fans.