Q-was-here wrote:I agree that if we just run it back, we could see some regression. I guess the question is whether we still see a strong core group coming together and does Ant continue his ascent?
I always go back to the journey the Bucks went on:
2013-14 - Giannis's rookie year and Middleton's 2nd year - Win 15 games 2014-15 - Win 41 games and lost in the 1st round. Alright, the ascent begins!
2015-16 - Win 33 games and miss the playoffs. Pppppffffffffttttt.
2016-17 - Win 42 games and lost in the 1st round.
2017-18 - Win 44 games and lose in the 1st round
2018-19 - Ding! Ding! Ding! Breakout year - win 60 games and lose in the ECF
I mean, they kind of wallowed in mediocrity there for four seasons after making a huge leap from 15 wins to 41 wins and making the playoffs. And then they stalled out for a while. In the meantime, they kept trying different guys around Middleton and Giannis. The only other player on the roster besides those two from their 2014-15 season that was still on the roster in 2018-19 was Ersan Ilyasova.
It's a good comparison I think. Kind of makes me realize that I'm more of a bucks fan than I thought... a little disappointed Middleton was out as I think the bucks could've beat the warriors. Yeah, I think we need to keep trying different guys around kat and ant and not to harp on Dlo, but I think it's time for the next round of supporting cast tryouts
Well, we don't have to replace everyone at once. And we haven't even stagnated yet! May be we will, may be we won't. We know for sure we need more size and toughness along the front line. Let's start there.
Guess what happened before the Bucks had their breakout season? They changed coaches and hired a proven winter in Coach Bud. There was also clearly some issues with Kidd and that group of players. If Finch is the good coach it seems he is that's a big deal. Coaching still matters in the NBA (sometimes it's also about fit) and it's been an big issue for the Wolves for a significant amount of the past 15+ seasons.
Also let's check in on that Vegas line a few months when teams including the Wolves largely have their rosters set.
I took a look at MJ's Bulls. They jumped from 27 wins to 38 in MJ's rookie season. That was certainly a sign of his greatness. But it's also noteworthy that even with the GOAT, the Bulls were still a sub-.500 team in MJ's rookie season. MJ was out nearly all of his second season, so looking ahead to his third season the Bulls improved from 38 wins to 40 - a small incremental improvement. The Bulls then took their big jump in MJ's 4th season when Scottie and Horace joined the team as rookies. But then the Bulls took a slight step back winning 47 games in MJ's 5th season even though Scottie and Horace were no longer rookies. The Bulls took off the next season, MJ's 6th, with 55 wins. They won 61 and 67 their next two seasons.
So even the MJ-led Bulls did not progress in a completely linear fashion.
Good grief, we're doing this already? The off-season hasn't even unfolded yet. Not to mention, the Timberwolves were underrated heading into last year too. They've earned that over years and years -- decades -- of incompetence, but things appear to be significantly different now. These oddsmakers set the win total low last season and probably will do the same for next season, but at least wait until after the draft and free agency. The entire league could look different in a matter of a month.
lipoli390 wrote:I took a look at MJ's Bulls. They jumped from 27 wins to 38 in MJ's rookie season. That was certainly a sign of his greatness. But it's also noteworthy that even with the GOAT, the Bulls were still a sub-.500 team in MJ's rookie season. MJ was out nearly all of his second season, so looking ahead to his third season the Bulls improved from 38 wins to 40 - a small incremental improvement. The Bulls then took their big jump in MJ's 4th season when Scottie and Horace joined the team as rookies. But then the Bulls took a slight step back winning 47 games in MJ's 5th season even though Scottie and Horace were no longer rookies. The Bulls took off the next season, MJ's 6th, with 55 wins. They won 61 and 67 their next two seasons.
So even the MJ-led Bulls did not progress in a completely linear fashion.
Interesting that the Bulls also took a step forward with coaching changes...
Camden wrote:Good grief, we're doing this already? The off-season hasn't even unfolded yet. Not to mention, the Timberwolves were underrated heading into last year too. They've earned that over years and years -- decades -- of incompetence, but things appear to be significantly different now. These oddsmakers set the win total low last season and probably will do the same for next season, but at least wait until after the draft and free agency. The entire league could look different in a matter of a month.
Sure, but we can only go off of what we know today. I get what you're saying that we've earned the low expectations over many years, but I also think you need to adjust your expectations based on how different some of these other teams will look. Leonard back, Denver's guys back, Zion back, I think the lakers figure out how to be a top 7 team also. I could see Portland get back in the picture too. We didn't win 46 games in a vacuum... the quality of these other teams in the west plays a huge part in our win total. Knowing what we know today, I wouldn't put money on this team even being 500 next year.
lipoli390 wrote:I think Connelly was trying to tell us something when he said at his intro press conference that an NBA team's progression towards contention isn't necessarily linear. What he was obviously telling us is that we can't expect the Wolves to go from 46 wins last season to 50 next. It doesn't typically work that way, especially for a young team like the Wolves still developing and searching for an identity. Included in Connelly's observation is that the Wolves could easily take a step back and win 40 games next season.
The keys are whether Edwards continues to progress towards his star-level ability and whether KAT continues to play at an all-star level with continued incremental improvement as we saw from him last season. Secondarily, the development of McDaniels and Nowell will also be important. Who the Wolves are able to sign to upgrade the starting big position next to KAT will also be a significant factor. The Wolves should be a better team simply through the natural progression of young players like Edwards, McDaniels, Nowell and potentially Bolmaro.
I predicted 46 wins this past season. The other teams in the West are getting better. So without any significant additions to the roster, I will probably predict fewer than 46 wins next season. Not sure where I'll land. So yes, this team has a long way to go. But the question is whether they are moving in the right direction. I think they are.
I was thinking about the Connelly comments too. I liked what he said about it not always being linear. He clearly understands that sometimes you need to take one step back to take two or three steps forward.
I've watched a couple of Tim Connelly interviews since he's been introduced as President of Basketball Operations. He's said that he values continuity, especially in terms of giving Karl-Anthony Towns some stability, and that he felt like the Timberwolves had a really good thing going currently. He also said he's concerned with not messing that up by doing too much. I think those are both meaningful messages as it pertains to what Minnesota should do this off-season.
Connelly's also talked about the luck factor a number of times, by the way. When asked about how to build a champion he first acknowledged that he's never done it so he can only speak on what he's seen and what he thinks, and I appreciate the honesty there. He talked about having high-level talent, but also getting that high-level talent to learn how to win, which is what I believe the Wolves went through this past season -- even if you think they accumulated 46 wins via good fortune. He said that having one star player is a franchise changer. Having two star players gets you a seat at the table. And three star players means you have a real contender. He also mentioned that there's no one way to build a winner; there's not a singular blueprint on how to do it. I very much enjoyed hearing that. And then he finished by talking about how luck is a huge component of any championship team. Lucky in terms of health. Lucky in terms of post-season matchups. Lucky as in playing your best basketball when it matters most. He finished by saying that you always want to control what you can control and then you can't worry about the rest.
He's said most of the above on multiple interviews now and each time it came off as honest and transparent. I've been impressed every time he's had a chance to speak publicly. And while he did say that progression isn't linear, I think he wants to let this assembly of talent continue to build and grow. I think he really does believe in what's currently in place. So, while I can understand and appreciate the gloom and doom crowd to some degree, I maintain that there are good things ahead for this franchise.
If you believe this team falls back next year then you must believe Ant has peaked. I believe he's going to make a big step forward and become the leader this team needs. I think he's a top 10 player by seasons end and players will want to come and play with him.
lipoli390 wrote:I took a look at MJ's Bulls. They jumped from 27 wins to 38 in MJ's rookie season. That was certainly a sign of his greatness. But it's also noteworthy that even with the GOAT, the Bulls were still a sub-.500 team in MJ's rookie season. MJ was out nearly all of his second season, so looking ahead to his third season the Bulls improved from 38 wins to 40 - a small incremental improvement. The Bulls then took their big jump in MJ's 4th season when Scottie and Horace joined the team as rookies. But then the Bulls took a slight step back winning 47 games in MJ's 5th season even though Scottie and Horace were no longer rookies. The Bulls took off the next season, MJ's 6th, with 55 wins. They won 61 and 67 their next two seasons.
So even the MJ-led Bulls did not progress in a completely linear fashion.
That's right. The Bulls didn't have a winning record until his 4th season with them and it was also that same year he won his first playoff series at age 25. He won his first Finals at age 28. Then he went on to win five more!
PorkChop wrote:If you believe this team falls back next year then you must believe Ant has peaked. I believe he's going to make a big step forward and become the leader this team needs. I think he's a top 10 player by seasons end and players will want to come and play with him.
It's also possible that Ant keeps improving and other key guys get hit with injuries. Or Ant has a great year, but his season is cut short after 48 games due to injury. There are lots of ways we can take a step back without it meaning Ant plateaued.
