Player Ratings

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Coolbreeze44
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Re: Player Ratings

Post by Coolbreeze44 »

Camden wrote:
CoolBreeze44 wrote:I'm a little confused about this. Based on these numbers, wouldn't DLO be the most valuable player in the league? Or am I misunderstanding the way these ratings are applied? How is his defensive rating so much better than anyone else who gets significant minutes? He may be giving more consistent effort on D, but most of us know he sucks on defense. I'm guessing the sample size isn't large enough yet.


It's likely a combination of three things.

1. D'Angelo Russell didn't play in the first two games against the Clippers -- games in which the Wolves defense was nonexistent. Russell's numbers aren't affected by those duds.

2. Russell's help/off-ball defense has been better than okay thus far; it's been damn good. He's constantly been making quick/accurate rotations while also getting in the passing lanes. From all accounts, the guy has a high basketball IQ and is using it on the defensive end. It's been quite the development.

3. Russell's deficiencies in man defense have been mitigated by matching him up on non-scoring threats or spot-up shooters. This obviously allows him to play to his strengths as a help defender. Furthermore, it's because of the addition of Patrick Beverley and the ascension of Anthony Edwards defensively that allows Russell to take the lesser scoring threat in the backcourt. Those three work well together.

It's fair to say that D-Lo has been a good defender in his role thus far. It's too early to guess whether or not that will continue for the full season, but he deserves a lot of credit for the improved play defensively.

That makes sense. I was also wondering if it has something to do with the guys he plays with on the 2nd unit. He usually gets subbed our first, and then comes back in quickly to play with the second unit - guys like Jaden, Okogie, Vando and PBev.
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kekgeek
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Re: Player Ratings

Post by kekgeek »

Camden wrote:
CoolBreeze44 wrote:I'm a little confused about this. Based on these numbers, wouldn't DLO be the most valuable player in the league? Or am I misunderstanding the way these ratings are applied? How is his defensive rating so much better than anyone else who gets significant minutes? He may be giving more consistent effort on D, but most of us know he sucks on defense. I'm guessing the sample size isn't large enough yet.


It's likely a combination of three things.

1. D'Angelo Russell didn't play in the first two games against the Clippers -- games in which the Wolves defense was nonexistent. Russell's numbers aren't affected by those duds.

2. Russell's help/off-ball defense has been better than okay thus far; it's been damn good. He's constantly been making quick/accurate rotations while also getting in the passing lanes. From all accounts, the guy has a high basketball IQ and is using it on the defensive end. It's been quite the development.

3. Russell's deficiencies in man defense have been mitigated by matching him up on non-scoring threats or spot-up shooters. This obviously allows him to play to his strengths as a help defender. Furthermore, it's because of the addition of Patrick Beverley and the ascension of Anthony Edwards defensively that allows Russell to take the lesser scoring threat in the backcourt. Those three work well together.

It's fair to say that D-Lo has been a good defender in his role thus far. It's too early to guess whether or not that will continue for the full season, but he deserves a lot of credit for the improved play defensively.



According to cleaningtheglass.com what eliminates garbage time. Lineups that involve Dlo is in the 90th percentile in terms of Net rating and in the 96th percentile in terms of defense. The Wolves starting lineup these last couple games of Dlo/Bev/Edwards/Vando/Kat is in the 100th percentile of the NBA.

To go along what Cam has said Dlo did not play in the two blowout losses to the Clippers and he missed the 2nd half of the Magic game where the Wolves got blown out so that sort of skews the data a little bit.

I will say this is why I argue against plus/minus from time to time. I think Dlo has better this year and is making an impact in a positive way when his shot is not falling this year but I also don't think he has been a top 10% player this year and the Wolves best player this year.

With that said it is a positive development that Dlo lineups still have been very effective with Kat off the floor. Being a +7.7 net rating. Hopefully this continues going forward.
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Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
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Re: Player Ratings

Post by Q12543 [enjin:6621299] »

FNG wrote:I referenced similar season results in the GDT, Q. The only numbers that are surprising to me are DLo's and JO's...not that they are positive, but that they are so much better than anyone else on the team. But their positive numbers somewhat meet my eye test, and I and others have mentioned DLo's improved defense often. One stat that doesn't show up in the box scores is deflected passes, and DLo and JO (along with Jaden) are far and away our best in this area this year. Josh is offensively challenged, but he makes up for it by creating chaos on the defensive end every time he is out there. Similarly DLo is struggling with his shot, but he is using his length and smarter defense to create a lot of deflections. I've ripped DLo's defense for a long time, so it's really been a pleasant surprise to see his marked improvement.

On the negative side, I talked about Naz (Revolving Door) Reid in the GDT, so I'm not surprised to see he has the worst DRtg on the team after Malik (Wide Load) Beasley. And it's also not surprising to me that KAT has the best ORtg on the team and Taurean (nice trade, Rosas) Prince has the worst.

Thanks for the summary, Q...tells us a lot about this odd team that we all love!

Edit: the biggest surprise to me is Naz's very bad offensive rating because I think he has looked very good on offense this year. Doesn't meet the eye test at all. And as you pointed out, the disconnect between his terrible net rating and his positive +/- is a statistical anomaly. If I had to venture a guess, he might be the beneficiary of Finch's substitution pattern where he often ends up on the court with DLo, who has been our best on/off guy. Just a guess though.


FNG, I think you are mis-reading the stats a bit. Ortg, Drtg, and Net Rating is how the team performs when he is on the court. Box Score Plus/Minus is weighted more heavily toward his actual individual production (with some other team and position-related factors weighed in). He's doing horribly in net rating and quite well in terms of box score stats.

So yes, he does have a very bad Ortg because he spends a bunch of time out there with cold shooters like Beasley, Prince, McLaughlin, and Okogie. Yet his BPM is pretty good because he himself is quite individually productive and efficient.
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kekgeek
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Re: Player Ratings

Post by kekgeek »

CoolBreeze44 wrote:
Camden wrote:
CoolBreeze44 wrote:I'm a little confused about this. Based on these numbers, wouldn't DLO be the most valuable player in the league? Or am I misunderstanding the way these ratings are applied? How is his defensive rating so much better than anyone else who gets significant minutes? He may be giving more consistent effort on D, but most of us know he sucks on defense. I'm guessing the sample size isn't large enough yet.


It's likely a combination of three things.

1. D'Angelo Russell didn't play in the first two games against the Clippers -- games in which the Wolves defense was nonexistent. Russell's numbers aren't affected by those duds.

2. Russell's help/off-ball defense has been better than okay thus far; it's been damn good. He's constantly been making quick/accurate rotations while also getting in the passing lanes. From all accounts, the guy has a high basketball IQ and is using it on the defensive end. It's been quite the development.

3. Russell's deficiencies in man defense have been mitigated by matching him up on non-scoring threats or spot-up shooters. This obviously allows him to play to his strengths as a help defender. Furthermore, it's because of the addition of Patrick Beverley and the ascension of Anthony Edwards defensively that allows Russell to take the lesser scoring threat in the backcourt. Those three work well together.

It's fair to say that D-Lo has been a good defender in his role thus far. It's too early to guess whether or not that will continue for the full season, but he deserves a lot of credit for the improved play defensively.

That makes sense. I was also wondering if it has something to do with the guys he plays with on the 2nd unit. He usually gets subbed our first, and then comes back in quickly to play with the second unit - guys like Jaden, Okogie, Vando and PBev.



To answer your question on the 2nd unit stuff. In lineups that he has been with Jaden and Okogie they are a +16.6 net rating (96th percentile) and have been in the 100th percentile when it comes to defense. Surprisingly lineups that involve Dlo/Bev/Mcdaniels have not been good so far this year getting outscored 6.6 pts per 100 possessions what is in the 23rd percentile and their defense is a league worst 0th percentile.

Ive said it in the past but for Dlo "all star" season with the Nets they were an above average defense with Dlo on the floor. Now I don't think that is because Dlo is an elite defender but it proved to me that you can play good defense with Dlo on the floor. Hopefully it will continue for this Wolves team this year.
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Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
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Re: Player Ratings

Post by Q12543 [enjin:6621299] »

kekgeek1 wrote:
Camden wrote:
CoolBreeze44 wrote:I'm a little confused about this. Based on these numbers, wouldn't DLO be the most valuable player in the league? Or am I misunderstanding the way these ratings are applied? How is his defensive rating so much better than anyone else who gets significant minutes? He may be giving more consistent effort on D, but most of us know he sucks on defense. I'm guessing the sample size isn't large enough yet.


It's likely a combination of three things.

1. D'Angelo Russell didn't play in the first two games against the Clippers -- games in which the Wolves defense was nonexistent. Russell's numbers aren't affected by those duds.

2. Russell's help/off-ball defense has been better than okay thus far; it's been damn good. He's constantly been making quick/accurate rotations while also getting in the passing lanes. From all accounts, the guy has a high basketball IQ and is using it on the defensive end. It's been quite the development.

3. Russell's deficiencies in man defense have been mitigated by matching him up on non-scoring threats or spot-up shooters. This obviously allows him to play to his strengths as a help defender. Furthermore, it's because of the addition of Patrick Beverley and the ascension of Anthony Edwards defensively that allows Russell to take the lesser scoring threat in the backcourt. Those three work well together.

It's fair to say that D-Lo has been a good defender in his role thus far. It's too early to guess whether or not that will continue for the full season, but he deserves a lot of credit for the improved play defensively.



According to cleaningtheglass.com what eliminates garbage time. Lineups that involve Dlo is in the 90th percentile in terms of Net rating and in the 96th percentile in terms of defense. The Wolves starting lineup these last couple games of Dlo/Bev/Edwards/Vando/Kat is in the 100th percentile of the NBA.

To go along what Cam has said Dlo did not play in the two blowout losses to the Clippers and he missed the 2nd half of the Magic game where the Wolves got blown out so that sort of skews the data a little bit.

I will say this is why I argue against plus/minus from time to time. I think Dlo has better this year and is making an impact in a positive way when his shot is not falling this year but I also don't think he has been a top 10% player this year and the Wolves best player this year.

With that said it is a positive development that Dlo lineups still have been very effective with Kat off the floor. Being a +7.7 net rating. Hopefully this continues going forward.


It's a bit of a bizarro world in DLO's case because this is sooooo unlike how things usually play out with him. I think the truth lies somewhere in between. He really has been better defensively this season, but offensively he's been part of the problem in my opinion. Can he be reasonably effective at both? We shall see. Not many Wolves have proven they can be over the years.
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FNG
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Re: Player Ratings

Post by FNG »

[
Q12543 wrote:
FNG wrote:I referenced similar season results in the GDT, Q. The only numbers that are surprising to me are DLo's and JO's...not that they are positive, but that they are so much better than anyone else on the team. But their positive numbers somewhat meet my eye test, and I and others have mentioned DLo's improved defense often. One stat that doesn't show up in the box scores is deflected passes, and DLo and JO (along with Jaden) are far and away our best in this area this year. Josh is offensively challenged, but he makes up for it by creating chaos on the defensive end every time he is out there. Similarly DLo is struggling with his shot, but he is using his length and smarter defense to create a lot of deflections. I've ripped DLo's defense for a long time, so it's really been a pleasant surprise to see his marked improvement.

On the negative side, I talked about Naz (Revolving Door) Reid in the GDT, so I'm not surprised to see he has the worst DRtg on the team after Malik (Wide Load) Beasley. And it's also not surprising to me that KAT has the best ORtg on the team and Taurean (nice trade, Rosas) Prince has the worst.

Thanks for the summary, Q...tells us a lot about this odd team that we all love!

Edit: the biggest surprise to me is Naz's very bad offensive rating because I think he has looked very good on offense this year. Doesn't meet the eye test at all. And as you pointed out, the disconnect between his terrible net rating and his positive +/- is a statistical anomaly. If I had to venture a guess, he might be the beneficiary of Finch's substitution pattern where he often ends up on the court with DLo, who has been our best on/off guy. Just a guess though.


FNG, I think you are mis-reading the stats a bit. Ortg, Drtg, and Net Rating is how the team performs when he is on the court. Box Score Plus/Minus is weighted more heavily toward his actual individual production (with some other team and position-related factors weighed in). He's doing horribly in net rating and quite well in terms of box score stats.

So yes, he does have a very bad Ortg because he spends a bunch of time out there with cold shooters like Beasley, Prince, McLaughlin, and Okogie. Yet his BPM is pretty good because he himself is quite individually productive and efficient.


Yeah, I get that Q. I guess I don't understand why (other than Prince) Naz's ORtg is roughly 10 points lower than every one of the guys you mentioned he is on the court with. His poor DRtg makes sense with me, because the scoreboard seems to turn about as fast as the national debt ticker when he is out there...at both ends of the court. But I still can't explain his low ORtg when the guys he plays with are so much higher. It's odd.
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Camden [enjin:6601484]
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Re: Player Ratings

Post by Camden [enjin:6601484] »

It doesn't seem that odd to me. Naz Reid plays with Karl-Anthony Towns the least out of anyone in the rotation -- just 37 minutes this season. Towns is Minnesota's best offensive player and Reid isn't afforded significant minutes on the court with him, which is to say that he doesn't get the KAT boost if you will. I feel like that would make a difference in how the numbers appear. It's just the nature of the statistic, really.
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Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
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Re: Player Ratings

Post by Q12543 [enjin:6621299] »

Camden wrote:It doesn't seem that odd to me. Naz Reid plays with Karl-Anthony Towns the least out of anyone in the rotation -- just 37 minutes this season. Towns is Minnesota's best offensive player and Reid isn't afforded significant minutes on the court with him, which is to say that he doesn't get the KAT boost if you will. I feel like that would make a difference in how the numbers appear. It's just the nature of the statistic, really.


(and as I mentioned earlier in the thread, the fact he's been playing with a bunch of ice-cold bench players doesn't help either).
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Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
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Re: Player Ratings

Post by Q12543 [enjin:6621299] »

I think Patrick Beverley is my MVP up to this point in the season. He has done what Thibs, Butler, and Taj couldn't do and that's change the defensive culture of this team. Obviously it helps that he has some capable sidekicks like Vando, McDaniels, and Okogie. I also think the scheme they use is more suited to our player personnel. But the key is getting the trio of Ant-DLO-KAT to be net positives on that side of the floor, or at least not the train wrecks they have historically been.
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Jester1534
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Re: Player Ratings

Post by Jester1534 »

Q12543 wrote:I think Patrick Beverley is my MVP up to this point in the season. He has done what Thibs, Butler, and Taj couldn't do and that's change the defensive culture of this team. Obviously it helps that he has some capable sidekicks like Vando, McDaniels, and Okogie. I also think the scheme they use is more suited to our player personnel. But the key is getting the trio of Ant-DLO-KAT to be net positives on that side of the floor, or at least not the train wrecks they have historically been.



Watch out Q you might get in trouble saying a change coaching scheme and philosophy has helped this team be best wolves defensive team in years. I've been told coaching doesn't matter at all. It's almost like a coaches job is to put his players in the next position to succeed and with our big three on defense Finch has done that this year.
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