Super Controversial Idea

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Abe, it's likely FNG simply searched "the average salary of an NBA point guard" and saw the blurb I saw from RunRepeat that stated it was $11.01-million in 2020-21, though I believe they included all salaries and did not differentiate between starter or reserve, or rookie-scale contract for that matter.

[thedoper]

I think Abe's list is going to show that 25-30 mil/year will be closer to the average salary of a PG once the new TV money kicks in. Maybe my idea isn't so controversial after all.

[FNG]

Here's the reality check. The average NBA starting PG makes $11 million per year (and that of course is distorted a little by Curry), and it's a stretch objectively to rank DLo in the top half of current starting PG's. I searched "NBA PG's ranked", and here were the first three relatively current rankings I found:

If not, I think moving him at $27 million per year when the average PG makes $11 million would require TC to give up draft or other assets he would prefer to keep.

Where'd you get that $11m from? It's not accurate.
In fact, if you take out guys on rookie deals... there's only 1 starter making that little money, Reggie Jackson. The real number is probably 3x more than $11M.

That's not to say I want Russell back beyond next season at anything higher than about $20M.

Curry - 48.1
Wall - 47.4
Westbrook - 47.1
Harden - 46.9
Lillard - 42.5
Irving - 36.5
Doncic - 35.7 or Dinwiddie 18.0
Russell - 31.4
Fox - 30.4
Young - 29.8
Paul - 28.4
Lowry - 28.3
Holiday - 32.4
Conley - 22.7
Brogdon - 22.6
VanVleet - 21.3
Ball - 19.5
Smart - 16.6
Murray - 16.6
Rose - 14.5
Jackson - 11.2

Rookie Deals
Morant - 12.2
Graham - 11.6
Cunningham - 10.6
Morris - 9.0
Garland - 8.9
Ball - 8.6
Suggs - 6.9

Thanks for doing the math, Abe. I took the shortcut route and used this schedule, but it likely includes ALL PGs (for instance, including JMac), and not just starters.

https://www.thehoopsgeek.com/average-nba-salary/

It looks like the mean salary for starting PGs is around $20 million, and then it drops off dramatically. With that in mind along with the average opinion of outside analysts as to where Russell ranks among starting PGs, Brunson money seems out of the question to me. Unless TC thinks the pundits are wrong and DLo actually does belong in the top half, I have a hard time justifying anything more than $15 million for him...and as I said, that won't be acceptable to the Russell camp. I think we will most likely have Russell through the end of his contract the more I think about it.

[Q-is-here]

Here's the reality check. The average NBA starting PG makes $11 million per year (and that of course is distorted a little by Curry), and it's a stretch objectively to rank DLo in the top half of current starting PG's. I searched "NBA PG's ranked", and here were the first three relatively current rankings I found:

If not, I think moving him at $27 million per year when the average PG makes $11 million would require TC to give up draft or other assets he would prefer to keep.

Where'd you get that $11m from? It's not accurate.
In fact, if you take out guys on rookie deals... there's only 1 starter making that little money, Reggie Jackson. The real number is probably 3x more than $11M.

That's not to say I want Russell back beyond next season at anything higher than about $20M.

Curry - 48.1
Wall - 47.4
Westbrook - 47.1
Harden - 46.9
Lillard - 42.5
Irving - 36.5
Doncic - 35.7 or Dinwiddie 18.0
Russell - 31.4
Fox - 30.4
Young - 29.8
Paul - 28.4
Lowry - 28.3
Holiday - 32.4
Conley - 22.7
Brogdon - 22.6
VanVleet - 21.3
Ball - 19.5
Smart - 16.6
Murray - 16.6
Rose - 14.5
Jackson - 11.2

Rookie Deals
Morant - 12.2
Graham - 11.6
Cunningham - 10.6
Morris - 9.0
Garland - 8.9
Ball - 8.6
Suggs - 6.9

Looks like someone got fact-checked. FNG should know better, especially on this board!

This data here also demonstrates why DLO and his agent absolutely will NOT accept a deal that most of us think is reasonable. His agent will simply point to the W-L record of the Wolves when he played versus didn't play and demand nothing less than $27-32M per year. I'd do the exact same thing if I were his agent.

And the Wolves will likely not do that deal. Thus we either trade him this offseason or go into next season with him on an expiring deal. According to Lip and Abe, there is only a 9% chance we do any deal with him!

[FNG]

Here's the reality check. The average NBA starting PG makes $11 million per year (and that of course is distorted a little by Curry), and it's a stretch objectively to rank DLo in the top half of current starting PG's. I searched "NBA PG's ranked", and here were the first three relatively current rankings I found:

If not, I think moving him at $27 million per year when the average PG makes $11 million would require TC to give up draft or other assets he would prefer to keep.

Where'd you get that $11m from? It's not accurate.
In fact, if you take out guys on rookie deals... there's only 1 starter making that little money, Reggie Jackson. The real number is probably 3x more than $11M.

That's not to say I want Russell back beyond next season at anything higher than about $20M.

Curry - 48.1
Wall - 47.4
Westbrook - 47.1
Harden - 46.9
Lillard - 42.5
Irving - 36.5
Doncic - 35.7 or Dinwiddie 18.0
Russell - 31.4
Fox - 30.4
Young - 29.8
Paul - 28.4
Lowry - 28.3
Holiday - 32.4
Conley - 22.7
Brogdon - 22.6
VanVleet - 21.3
Ball - 19.5
Smart - 16.6
Murray - 16.6
Rose - 14.5
Jackson - 11.2

Rookie Deals
Morant - 12.2
Graham - 11.6
Cunningham - 10.6
Morris - 9.0
Garland - 8.9
Ball - 8.6
Suggs - 6.9

Looks like someone got fact-checked. FNG should know better, especially on this board!

This data here also demonstrates why DLO and his agent absolutely will NOT accept a deal that most of us think is reasonable. His agent will simply point to the W-L record of the Wolves when he played versus didn't play and demand nothing less than $27-32M per year. I'd do the exact same thing if I were his agent.

And the Wolves will likely not do that deal. Thus we either trade him this offseason or go into next season with him on an expiring deal. According to Lip and Abe, there is only a 9% chance we do any deal with him!

Come on, Q...there's no room for fact-checking in modern day America. Just throw crap out there and hope someone believes it!

As I look at that list of salaries, I believe (and hope) TC won't go out of the 15-20 range. And yeah, the Russell camp will want what you're suggesting. Hence, no chance of a deal. And unfortunately, perhaps an ensuing strained relationship for the season between our starting PG and management. That's why I'm really hoping TC can pull a rabbit out of his hat and find a trade partner. I don't think it's going to be Utah though, even though that report excited me for a moment.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Most of those salaries Abe listed for us were also signed a year or more ago, which essentially means they were signed before the salary cap elevated from year to year. From 2021-22 to 2022-23 year, the cap jumped $11.2-million, and $14.5-million over the last two years combined. It's likely only going to go up as the new TV deal approaches.

According to Forbes, "projections indicate that a $171-million salary cap is possible, assuming no cap smoothing, by 2025. Should the NBPA instead agree to cap smoothing, it's likely the league will still see annual increases to the extent of $15 million."

It's entirely possible that a $30-million player salary will look a lot closer to what we think of a $20-million salary very soon. Something to keep in mind.

[thedoper]

Most of those salaries Abe listed for us were also signed a year or more ago, which essentially means they were signed before the salary cap elevated from year to year. From 2021-22 to 2022-23 year, the cap jumped $11.2-million, and $14.5-million over the last two years combined. It's likely only going to go up as the new TV deal approaches.

According to Forbes, "projections indicate that a $171-million salary cap is possible, assuming no cap smoothing, by 2025. Should the NBPA instead agree to cap smoothing, it's likely the league will still see annual increases to the extent of $15 million."

It's entirely possible that a $30-million player salary will look a lot closer to what we think of a $20-million salary very soon. Something to keep in mind.

Exactly my point. If Dlo turns down 30 good on him and hopefully he plays like a man possessed next year and earns that bread with us or anyone.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

In the free agent thread I laid out an argument for why Brunson will clearly get more than DLO can get based on playoff performance. I encourage you guys to check it out.

Thinking about that reasoning and looking at this list, I agree I wouldn't value DLO much above 22 million. Unless DLO really regresses, that will be a tradeable contract at the very least when the salary cap rises, and maybe he could even atone himself for his poor playoffs this past year. If he won't take that as an extension, then that leaves us really only 3 choices.

[list=1]
[*] Trade him this summer for the best deal we can get for him.
[*] Keep him to start the season and look to trade him during the season.
[*] Just roll the whole year with him and make a decision about whether or not to make him an offer next summer.
[/list]

Option 1 is probably the best. But who knows what's available? Grant's off the table now. We could try to throw in an asset and work a sign and trade for Miles Bridges, but he'd need to want to come here and I don't know that Charlotte would want DLO. I doubt we could get a guy like John Collins, and while he'd balance out the roster, he's got problems of his own, especially on that contract. Besides, I don't see Atlanta wanting DLO. Brogdon seems like he's taken a bit of a step backwards in recent years. The Gobert thing is definitely interesting, but man, it worries me about him getting targeted for switches in the playoffs and on that salary? Yikes. I'm just not sure what's available out there.

As for option 2, theoretically, we could be taking on a similar sized but longer term contract from a team that tries to start the year competitively but collapses during the season and decides to start the rebuilding process by trading a longer contract for an expiring one to clear cap space so they can take on bad contracts next summer to acquire first round picks. But it seems more likely that we'd get a player on a longer-term deal like that now in the offseason. Plus, it generally wouldn't be good to make a key change in the middle of a season in which we're expected to make the playoffs.

Option 3 doesn't seem great because we're over the cap, so just losing him for nothing means we'd lose the opportunity to have a player with a salary that is over the cap that would allow us to more easily pay for a better team. Even if DLO would be overpaid by a few million if he did get 24, he is good enough that he'd help our team more than having nobody or some scrub because we can't pay more to go very far over the cap. And if we extended him and could at some point trade him, as doper suggested, we could pay that new guy despite being over the cap.

So I don't see any great options here. Ideally, the front office is smart enough to have their eye on a guy who has the potential to be better than DLO even if he's not showing it yet, and find a way to trade DLO for that guy. But that's not easy to do. Bottom line, DLO isn't really a max player, but he seems to be expecting max money, which makes him less valuable to us, but also to any team that might want to trade for him, which in turn makes it harder for us to trade him. It's a bit of a vicious circle.

[Sundog]

I'm wondering what discount Russell might take in order to *not* play out an expiring deal? I know about players wanting to "bet on themselves" and take on the risk of injury, etc, in the hopes of improving their market opportunities. But I don't think we know what Dlo's risk tolerance is.

[Monster]

In the free agent thread I laid out an argument for why Brunson will clearly get more than DLO can get based on playoff performance. I encourage you guys to check it out.

Thinking about that reasoning and looking at this list, I agree I wouldn't value DLO much above 22 million. Unless DLO really regresses, that will be a tradeable contract at the very least when the salary cap rises, and maybe he could even atone himself for his poor playoffs this past year. If he won't take that as an extension, then that leaves us really only 3 choices.

[list=1]
[*] Trade him this summer for the best deal we can get for him.
[*] Keep him to start the season and look to trade him during the season.
[*] Just roll the whole year with him and make a decision about whether or not to make him an offer next summer.
[/list]

Option 1 is probably the best. But who knows what's available? Grant's off the table now. We could try to throw in an asset and work a sign and trade for Miles Bridges, but he'd need to want to come here and I don't know that Charlotte would want DLO. I doubt we could get a guy like John Collins, and while he'd balance out the roster, he's got problems of his own, especially on that contract. Besides, I don't see Atlanta wanting DLO. Brogdon seems like he's taken a bit of a step backwards in recent years. The Gobert thing is definitely interesting, but man, it worries me about him getting targeted for switches in the playoffs and on that salary? Yikes. I'm just not sure what's available out there.

As for option 2, theoretically, we could be taking on a similar sized but longer term contract from a team that tries to start the year competitively but collapses during the season and decides to start the rebuilding process by trading a longer contract for an expiring one to clear cap space so they can take on bad contracts next summer to acquire first round picks. But it seems more likely that we'd get a player on a longer-term deal like that now in the offseason. Plus, it generally wouldn't be good to make a key change in the middle of a season in which we're expected to make the playoffs.

Option 3 doesn't seem great because we're over the cap, so just losing him for nothing means we'd lose the opportunity to have a player with a salary that is over the cap that would allow us to more easily pay for a better team. Even if DLO would be overpaid by a few million if he did get 24, he is good enough that he'd help our team more than having nobody or some scrub because we can't pay more to go very far over the cap. And if we extended him and could at some point trade him, as doper suggested, we could pay that new guy despite being over the cap.

So I don't see any great options here. Ideally, the front office is smart enough to have their eye on a guy who has the potential to be better than DLO even if he's not showing it yet, and find a way to trade DLO for that guy. But that's not easy to do. Bottom line, DLO isn't really a max player, but he seems to be expecting max money, which makes him less valuable to us, but also to any team that might want to trade for him, which in turn makes it harder for us to trade him. It's a bit of a vicious circle.

#3 option is much better than you are suggesting. The Wolves next offseason could potentially be significantly under the cap if they let go of Russell Beasley and Beverly. So they could even chase a max guy. So Russell walking for nothing could mean the Wolves could sign a pretty good player maybe another good starting level player. The one thing to consider is a bunch of teams will have money and the cap will probably continue to increase so...if there are a couple guys the team wants that are in demand...they may not come any cheaper than Russell.