Minnesota Sports Forum

khans2k5 wrote:

monsterpile wrote:

Camden0916 wrote:

khans2k5 wrote:I'd give them James Johnson and Okogie if they would take it. We have too many guards and need some better wings and Oubre fits that mold. It also leaves 17 open to just take BPA and not have to worry about getting a specific position fit on the team. Okogie is a defensive compliment to Booker and a Rubio/Okogie backcourt for a couple minutes a game would be a interesting defensive wrinkle they can throw out.

I'd feel better going into next season with Russell/Culver/Oubre/Towns/Wiseman than what we are looking at right now. It's still not a playoff team most likely but I see that team trending in the right direction.

I would offer that as well, and almost suggested it too, but I would think the cost-controlled asset in the draft pick would be more attractive than two years of Josh Okogie prior to free agency. I could be wrong on that, though, since Okogie is somewhat of a proven commodity -- at least in terms of perimeter defense.

It seems like the Suns are letting Oubre go because he is awing they don't want to pay. If they do this trade they basically get 1 cheap year of Okogie and then have to decide if they wanted to pay him. Idk what they are planning to do at PF. Are they planning to keep Saric? Is he their guy there or maybe they plan to play smaller? I would think #17 plus another small asset would be more appealing to them than Okogie unless they were looking to flip Okogie in another deal seeing him as an asset.

I don't see how Okogie is a guy who's going to get paid relative to a starting wing in Oubre who scored 18 a game. Josh is a defensive specialist who would be a bench piece for them. I don't imagine his pay day being very big if they wanted to keep him or even if we keep him and try to retain him. Who's giving him 10 million a year even to do what he does now? He's gonna have to show some major improvement to get paid more than a middling role player.

Ok if that's the case why would the Suns trade Oubre for a middling role player?

khans2k5 wrote:I'd give them James Johnson and Okogie if they would take it. We have too many guards and need some better wings and Oubre fits that mold. It also leaves 17 open to just take BPA and not have to worry about getting a specific position fit on the team. Okogie is a defensive compliment to Booker and a Rubio/Okogie backcourt for a couple minutes a game would be a interesting defensive wrinkle they can throw out.

I'd feel better going into next season with Russell/Culver/Oubre/Towns/Wiseman than what we are looking at right now. It's still not a playoff team most likely but I see that team trending in the right direction.

I think that about the right value for oubre. I hate to give up okogie but oubre is the better player and this would better balance the roster assuming we will definitely re sign beasley.

Mainly a lurker here, but since I live in Phoenix and have watched quite a bit of Oubre, I'll weigh in here. The Suns honestly seemed to play better when Oubre was out of the lineup (i.e. see the bubble). Offensively, he can become a bit of a black hole, if he gets the ball he's shooting, he's not getting his teammates involved. He does have a decent shot though and can take it to the rim. Defensively, he's a mixed bag, good one on one but not so so good good playing team defense. He's also wanting to get paid. Not a bad player by any means, but I say tread carefully.

Some things to consider when it comes to Oubre.

His 2nd year stats are very comparable to Okogie's 2nd year stats. He shot the 3 a little better but Okogie had about double the FT and assist rate.

Oubre's Career 3 point percentage is 32.9%. It's been plenty solid since he played in Phoenix but is that enough to assume he will be worthwhile from that distance going forward?

He didn't play at all in the bubble when the Suns we're undefeated. He was part of a surprising start for Phoenix but their record last season without him was 12-5 and they won 34 total games.

Advanced stats don't seem to really paint a good picture. I don't always buy into those things but it's worth considering. Looking at those made me think...would we be getting sort of another Andrew Wiggins just cheaper? I'm not sure he has ever been a plus defender despite having the tools to be that type of guy.

What is he going to cost after this season?

I'm seeing some reasons why the Suns might be willing to deal him. Ive always kinda liked him in the sense it seemed he was sort of undervalued a little bit. I think that might be the case now and maybe he can be acquired for less than I first considered. I really haven't seen him play much which makes it hard to really evaluate him. I still think I'd take a chance on him if the price is right depending somewhat on what we do at the top of the draft.

I wouldn't deal Okogie for Oubre for the following two reasons:

1. First, since Oubre has only one year left on his contract, we'd be giving up our best defensive player for what could easily end up being no more than a one-year rental. Moreover, Oubre will make $14.5 million next season, so re-signing him would cost at least than and likely far more. In contrast, the Wolves have Okogie locked up for at least 2 more seasons under an inexpensive rookie contract that peaks at $4.5 million the year after next.

2. Second, I'm not sure Oubre is better than Okogie over the long haul. When comparing the two, it's important to look at who they could realistically be two years from now and not just at who a they are now. At the moment, Oubre is clearly a better overall player than Okogie. But Oubre has played five seasons compared to Okogie's two and they were similarly rated prospects coming out of college.

Rather than comparing Oubre's 5th season stats with Okogie's 2nd year numbers, do an apples-to-applies comparison of their respective 2nd seasons and you'll see that Okogie's stats were actually slightly better than Oubre's. Note that Oubre was a similarly poor 3-point shooter that season as well (28.7% v. 26.6%). Oubre's stats improved significantly in his 3rd season and he had what I'd call his breakout season in year 4. Since most NBA players show the most improvement between their 2nd and 3rd seasons or later, I think it would be a big mistake to deal Okogie now unless he's part of a package to land a star like Simmons or Beal.

Looking beyond their respective NBA stats, Oubre and Okogie don't differ much physically. Yes, Oubre is 2.75" taller than Okogie. But again, it's length, not height, that matters and Oubre's overhead reach is only a half inch longer than Okogie's (8'6.5" v. 8'6). As McHale once said, you don't shoot, block shots, rebound or steal the ball with your head. His point was that length is the metric that matters. Both Oubre and Okogie have similarly long wingspans that exceed the NBA average for the SF position (Oubre 7'2, Okogie 7'0). Okogie has a stronger/sturdier build than Oubre. Okogie weighed 211 lbs coming out of college compared to Oubre at 203 lbs. They are both terrific athletes, but Okogie's athletic combine testing results were better than Oubre's on every major metric - 42" vertical compared to 37", 3.03 shuttle v. 3.12; 3.04 spring v. 3.32.

So yes, Oubre is the better player right now, averaging 18 points and 6.4 rebounds per game last season. I like him. No doubt that Oubre performing at the level of his last two seasons would be an upgrade over Okogie performing at his 2nd-season level. But I don't think swapping Okogie for Oubre is advisable given their comparative contractual situations and Okogie's potential. I understand that we can't count on Okogie improving to the same extent as Oubre after his second season. But Okogie's significant improvement between his rookie and sophomore seasons, coupled with his high motor and great work ethic, suggest that he will. And his contract will provide more certainty and more cap flexibility than Oubre's.

I would definitely consider trading our #17 pick and Johnson for Oubre. But again, I'm concerned about the one-year rental risk and, even if he is open to re-signing here, the cost of retaining him. Part of the decision, in my view, would depend on whether and at what price the Wolves re-sign Beasley. If the Wolves end up paying Beasley $17 million per year, I don't see how the Wolves could responsibly deal for Oubre, knowing that re-signing him would probably cost at least that and probably more.

Good points Lip. I agree with you.

Here is another stat working against Oubre: Never once in his five seasons has his team performed better with him on the floor versus off of it. In other words, he has a negative net On/Off rating every single season. That is pretty telling to me and also backs-up MikeAz's observations about how Phoenix didn't even miss him after he went out.

I'm not convinced yet that Okogie will end up being the better player than Oubre, but I guess I'm just not that interested in him as a player, regardless of what we'd have to give up for him.

Q12543 wrote:Good points Lip. I agree with you.

Here is another stat working against Oubre: Never once in his five seasons has his team performed better with him on the floor versus off of it. In other words, he has a negative net On/Off rating every single season. That is pretty telling to me and also backs-up MikeAz's observations about how Phoenix didn't even miss him after he went out.

I'm not convinced yet that Okogie will end up being the better player than Oubre, but I guess I'm just not that interested in him as a player, regardless of what we'd have to give up for him.

Interesting. I wasn't aware of that stat. Another slight negative with Oubre is his mediocre 3-point shooting. He's a career 33% shooter from behind the arc and last season he shot 35%. Not a perfect fit for a team, the Wolves, that expects to rely a lot on 3-point shooting.

monsterpile wrote:

khans2k5 wrote:

monsterpile wrote:

Camden0916 wrote:

khans2k5 wrote:I'd give them James Johnson and Okogie if they would take it. We have too many guards and need some better wings and Oubre fits that mold. It also leaves 17 open to just take BPA and not have to worry about getting a specific position fit on the team. Okogie is a defensive compliment to Booker and a Rubio/Okogie backcourt for a couple minutes a game would be a interesting defensive wrinkle they can throw out.

I'd feel better going into next season with Russell/Culver/Oubre/Towns/Wiseman than what we are looking at right now. It's still not a playoff team most likely but I see that team trending in the right direction.

I would offer that as well, and almost suggested it too, but I would think the cost-controlled asset in the draft pick would be more attractive than two years of Josh Okogie prior to free agency. I could be wrong on that, though, since Okogie is somewhat of a proven commodity -- at least in terms of perimeter defense.

It seems like the Suns are letting Oubre go because he is awing they don't want to pay. If they do this trade they basically get 1 cheap year of Okogie and then have to decide if they wanted to pay him. Idk what they are planning to do at PF. Are they planning to keep Saric? Is he their guy there or maybe they plan to play smaller? I would think #17 plus another small asset would be more appealing to them than Okogie unless they were looking to flip Okogie in another deal seeing him as an asset.

I don't see how Okogie is a guy who's going to get paid relative to a starting wing in Oubre who scored 18 a game. Josh is a defensive specialist who would be a bench piece for them. I don't imagine his pay day being very big if they wanted to keep him or even if we keep him and try to retain him. Who's giving him 10 million a year even to do what he does now? He's gonna have to show some major improvement to get paid more than a middling role player.

Ok if that's the case why would the Suns trade Oubre for a middling role player?

Because he's an affordable role player who fills a hole on a team full of young wings already? The whole reason Oubre is getting pushed out is because he's gonna cost money and they have Bridges and Cam Johnson on rookie deals who can take that spot. Literally James Johnson and Okogie fill 2 holes on their team while Oubre plays a spot they have a surplus. Same for Okogie with us. We have Culver, Beasley and even Russell can play off the ball at the 2 on occasion. It's a swap that gives both teams what they need.

lipoli390 wrote:I wouldn't deal Okogie for Oubre for the following two reasons:

1. First, since Oubre has only one year left on his contract, we'd be giving up our best defensive player for what could easily end up being no more than a one-year rental. Moreover, Oubre will make $14.5 million next season, so re-signing him would cost at least than and likely far more. In contrast, the Wolves have Okogie locked up for at least 2 more seasons under an inexpensive rookie contract that peaks at $4.5 million the year after next.

2. Second, I'm not sure Oubre is better than Okogie over the long haul. When comparing the two, it's important to look at who they could realistically be two years from now and not just at who a they are now. At the moment, Oubre is clearly a better overall player than Okogie. But Oubre has played five seasons compared to Okogie's two and they were similarly rated prospects coming out of college.

Rather than comparing Oubre's 5th season stats with Okogie's 2nd year numbers, do an apples-to-applies comparison of their respective 2nd seasons and you'll see that Okogie's stats were actually slightly better than Oubre's. Note that Oubre was a similarly poor 3-point shooter that season as well (28.7% v. 26.6%). Oubre's stats improved significantly in his 3rd season and he had what I'd call his breakout season in year 4. Since most NBA players show the most improvement between their 2nd and 3rd seasons or later, I think it would be a big mistake to deal Okogie now unless he's part of a package to land a star like Simmons or Beal.

Looking beyond their respective NBA stats, Oubre and Okogie don't differ much physically. Yes, Oubre is 2.75" taller than Okogie. But again, it's length, not height, that matters and Oubre's overhead reach is only a half inch longer than Okogie's (8'6.5" v. 8'6). As McHale once said, you don't shoot, block shots, rebound or steal the ball with your head. His point was that length is the metric that matters. Both Oubre and Okogie have similarly long wingspans that exceed the NBA average for the SF position (Oubre 7'2, Okogie 7'0). Okogie has a stronger/sturdier build than Oubre. Okogie weighed 211 lbs coming out of college compared to Oubre at 203 lbs. They are both terrific athletes, but Okogie's athletic combine testing results were better than Oubre's on every major metric - 42" vertical compared to 37", 3.03 shuttle v. 3.12; 3.04 spring v. 3.32.

So yes, Oubre is the better player right now, averaging 18 points and 6.4 rebounds per game last season. I like him. No doubt that Oubre performing at the level of his last two seasons would be an upgrade over Okogie performing at his 2nd-season level. But I don't think swapping Okogie for Oubre is advisable given their comparative contractual situations and Okogie's potential. I understand that we can't count on Okogie improving to the same extent as Oubre after his second season. But Okogie's significant improvement between his rookie and sophomore seasons, coupled with his high motor and great work ethic, suggest that he will. And his contract will provide more certainty and more cap flexibility than Oubre's.

I would definitely consider trading our #17 pick and Johnson for Oubre. But again, I'm concerned about the one-year rental risk and, even if he is open to re-signing here, the cost of retaining him. Part of the decision, in my view, would depend on whether and at what price the Wolves re-sign Beasley. If the Wolves end up paying Beasley $17 million per year, I don't see how the Wolves could responsibly deal for Oubre, knowing that re-signing him would probably cost at least that and probably more.

So then we shouldn't re-sign Beasley if you are banking on Josh improving further because there aren't minutes for both of them at the 2, neither can play PG and then playing Josh at the 3 doesn't work at all against the best players in the league. We have too many SG's and we can't keep them all. Beasley, Culver, Okogie. Pick 2 and deal the third because Russell can also play some 2 so we just have too many guards that play that spot. At some point you have to turn all these guys into a team and a Russell, Culver, Beasley, Okogie, J Mac depth chart for 2 spots is too much.

Also just a note, if the Wolves pay Beasley $17 million a year I'm out. That's an atrocious and ridiculous contract to give to a guy who hasn't started much in his career. You can't be in the business of paying role players so much you hope their play earns that contract. You have to pay them what they are actually worth and hope their play makes it a good deal for you. If someone else gives him $17 million say goodbye and hope Culver and Okogie continue to develop.

Speaking of Beasley, whatever happened to that imbroglio he got caught up in with the drugs, etc.? That seemed to go quiet really quick.

I do wonder if the front office looks at Edwards as the guy at #1 and then basically forgoes paying Beasley all that money. We'd still have too many SGs on the roster, but it would allow them to cut bait with Beasley and avoid a potential overpay.