Compare 2019 Wolves to 2020 Wolves

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I'll use a modified Monster system.

ADVANTAGE = Better in 2020
DISADVANTAGE = Worse in 2020
EVEN = Same

Centers
KAT vs. KAT = EVEN
Davis/Reid vs. Vonleh/Dieng = EVEN

Power Forwards
Grab-bag of PFs vs. Covington = DISADVANTAGE
Grab-bag of PFs vs. Layman = EVEN

Small Forwards
Edwards vs.Graham = EVEN
Okogie vs. Okogie = EVEN

Shooting Guards
Beasley vs. Wiggins = EVEN
Culver vs. Culver = ADVANTAGE

Combo Guards
DLO vs. Teague = ADVANTAGE
Rubio vs. Napier = ADVANTAGE


In an 82-game season, this looks like a ~ 30 win team to me unless someone takes a massive leap OR KAT and DLO suddenly decide they want to defend people.

[Monster]

I'll use a modified Monster system.

ADVANTAGE = Better in 2020
DISADVANTAGE = Worse in 2020
EVEN = Same

Centers
KAT vs. KAT = EVEN
Davis/Reid vs. Vonleh/Dieng = EVEN

Power Forwards
Grab-bag of PFs vs. Covington = DISADVANTAGE
Grab-bag of PFs vs. Layman = EVEN

Small Forwards
Edwards vs.Graham = EVEN
Okogie vs. Okogie = EVEN

Shooting Guards
Beasley vs. Wiggins = EVEN
Culver vs. Culver = ADVANTAGE

Combo Guards
DLO vs. Teague = ADVANTAGE
Rubio vs. Napier = ADVANTAGE


In an 82-game season, this looks like a ~ 30 win team to me unless someone takes a massive leap OR KAT and DLO suddenly decide they want to defend people.

This was well done Q in a concise manner.

One clarification: When you say a 30 win team is that based on 82 or 72 games?

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I'll use a modified Monster system.

ADVANTAGE = Better in 2020
DISADVANTAGE = Worse in 2020
EVEN = Same

Centers
KAT vs. KAT = EVEN
Davis/Reid vs. Vonleh/Dieng = EVEN

Power Forwards
Grab-bag of PFs vs. Covington = DISADVANTAGE
Grab-bag of PFs vs. Layman = EVEN

Small Forwards
Edwards vs.Graham = EVEN
Okogie vs. Okogie = EVEN

Shooting Guards
Beasley vs. Wiggins = EVEN
Culver vs. Culver = ADVANTAGE

Combo Guards
DLO vs. Teague = ADVANTAGE
Rubio vs. Napier = ADVANTAGE


In an 82-game season, this looks like a ~ 30 win team to me unless someone takes a massive leap OR KAT and DLO suddenly decide they want to defend people.

This was well done Q in a concise manner.

One clarification: When you say a 30 win team is that based on 82 or 72 games?

I haven't gotten my head wrapped around a 72 game season yet, so yes, I think this is a 30-win team in a normal season. That makes the Vegas line about right then IMO.

[MikkeMan]

I try to stay positive since we haven't yet played the first preseason game. I decided to take different approach in comparing our team. Since we have or at least have had half of 2018-19 Brooklyn team, it makes somehow sense to compare our team to that.

Centers
KAT vs. Jarrett Allen = ADVANTAGE

They are totally different type of players and Allen is much better defender but Kat is so much better in offense that he should be still better overall player as well.

Davis/Reid vs. Davis = EVEN

Davis is two years older now but since we have also Reid this should be at least close to even.

Power Forwards
Hernangomez vs. Dudley = DISADVANTAGE

Even though Dudley wasn't that good anymore in 2018-19 he might have small advantage over Hernangomez.

RJH vs RJH = EVEN
Layman vs. Kurucs = EVEN

Small Forwards
Culver vs. Joe Harris = DISADVANTAGE

Harris is right now clearly better player but it is not huge stretch to think that Culver would improve in his second year so much that the gap for Harris wouldn't be that big.

Okogie vs. DeMarre Carroll = EVEN

Shooting Guards
Beasley vs. Crabbe = ADVANTAGE

We saw last season that Beasley is much better than Crabbe.

Edwards vs. LeVert = DISADVANTAGE

LeVert played just half of the season, so the effect of this disadvantage shouldn't be that big.

Point Guards
DLO vs. DLO = EVEN
Rubio vs. Dinwiddie = EVEN

Rubio and Dinwiddie are totally different types of players and last season version of Dinwiddie might be already better than Ricky but 2018-19 he wasn't yet that.

McLauglin vs. Napier = ADVANTAGE

This was pretty clear last season as well.

So our team should be at least as good as Brooklyn was in 2018-19 and they won 42 games. So if Ryan Saunders is even half of the coach Kenny Atkinson is, they should be able to compete playoff spot.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Good stuff Mikkeman. The only caveat is that Brooklyn played in the Eastern Conference, which was a pretty weak conference that year. Not sure we'll have multiple sub-25 win teams in the West this season.

[Monster]

Good stuff Mikkeman. The only caveat is that Brooklyn played in the Eastern Conference, which was a pretty weak conference that year. Not sure we'll have multiple sub-25 win teams in the West this season.

A couple years ago there was an article that did a pretty deep Statistical dive into wether or not teams from the different conferences schedules Would impact how many wins a team a Western conference team would have compared to And Eastern conference team. The result was? I think it was maybe 1 win difference. I was honestly a bit surprised myself at that outcome but I suppose that makes sense there are so many variables of who you play when you play them in terms of injuries load management etc. the reality is that if Towns and Russell stay relatively healthy this year that's gonna be a pretty big deal. There will be injuries but if the Wolves can avoid any lengthy injuries to key players that would help quite a bit. With Rubio here the PG spot they can miss either Russell or Rubio for a chunk of games. Towns it would be tougher but maybe they could play some guys that just play D on that end and let guards ball out. The later scenario is a much taller task. There are a lot of "wing" options if one of those guys gets hurt.

[MikkeMan]

Good stuff Mikkeman. The only caveat is that Brooklyn played in the Eastern Conference, which was a pretty weak conference that year. Not sure we'll have multiple sub-25 win teams in the West this season.

Thanks Q. I considered also little conference disparity. It was pretty clear in that season but I think last season East already won more interconference games than West. So maybe this season both conferences are again pretty even.

I actually think that Brooklyn clearly oveachieved during that 2018-19 season and Atkinson did a great job as a coach of that team. So it would be big surprise if Saunders would be able to repeat that.

One thing that I found little surprising is that even though Brooklyn was quite small team (had just one big Allen or Davis playing at time), they were not out rebounded and were pretty good team defensively. I think it shows how important good rim protection and wing defenders are.

They also had quite many wing players and even though most of them missed plenty of games ( most of them played just 40 to 67 games) they survived through those injuries really well. Of course it helped a lot that both Allen and DLo played at least 80 games.

I expect that Wolves will start Ricky and Dlo as guards and obviously Towns as center. Forward position is clearly most difficult to guess but since training camp is so short I think they will use players that were here already in last season. Culver gives some defense to starting five and since his outside shooting ability is still a question mark, I think they need to start Hernangomez as four. If Culver can hit open catch and shoot three pointers well enough, they can replace later during season Hernangomez with RHJ to give starting five even more defense.

[FNG]

I'll use a modified Monster system.

ADVANTAGE = Better in 2020
DISADVANTAGE = Worse in 2020
EVEN = Same

Centers
KAT vs. KAT = EVEN
Davis/Reid vs. Vonleh/Dieng = EVEN

Power Forwards
Grab-bag of PFs vs. Covington = DISADVANTAGE
Grab-bag of PFs vs. Layman = EVEN

Small Forwards
Edwards vs.Graham = EVEN
Okogie vs. Okogie = EVEN

Shooting Guards
Beasley vs. Wiggins = EVEN
Culver vs. Culver = ADVANTAGE

Combo Guards
DLO vs. Teague = ADVANTAGE
Rubio vs. Napier = ADVANTAGE


In an 82-game season, this looks like a ~ 30 win team to me unless someone takes a massive leap OR KAT and DLO suddenly decide they want to defend people.

I see the logic in your post, Q, but having the starters basically even with the 2019-20 starters clashes with my opinion. I had a feeling of dread entering the 2019 season that I don't feel nearly as much this year. I note that you and I have different starting lineups. What would your assessment of this year's starters vs. last year's be if Ryan chooses the correct starting lineup and has his best five players out there for the most minutes, that is Rubio/Russell/Edwards/Any PF/KAT. Take a look at last year's stats, and see if you agree that Rubio>Teague, and D-Lo>Wiggins.

Further I note that you give the nod at SF to Graham over Edwards, despite the fact that Graham's stats have been nothing short of dreadful his entire career (in fact his being in the starting lineup last year was probably the main reason my hopes for even a 25-win season were low). What if Ryan started a Culver who showed great improvement the second half of last season instead of Edwards...would you still choose Graham as being superior?

Somehow this Sunday morning I have a burning desire to have some company on my Wolves' bandwagon. Please redo your comparison of 2019 starters vs. 2020 using a starting lineup of Rubio/D-Lo/Culver/Anyone/KAT, and support your work with statistics!

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

FNG, A few things....

Graham vs. Edwards - No doubt Edwards probably fills the box score up more and is by far the more dynamic talent. But Graham largely stayed in his lane and didn't use a ton of possessions. I predict Edwards will have a lot of inefficient possessions and poor defensive decision-making that will likely wash out the volume stuff he does with scoring, etc. Super young, undisciplined rookies like Edwards are almost ALWAYS a big negative on team performance.

DLO vs. Wiggins - Wiggins is the better defender (although still not that good) and isn't much less efficient than DLO. DLO has one season where he was a net positive in team performance with him on vs. off the floor. I do think DLO is the more skilled player, but that just hasn't translated yet to on court impact. Hard for me to give him much of a nod over Wiggins given his anemic team impact over the years.

Rubio vs. Teague - I think I already have this in the plus column when comparing DLO to Teague, but in both cases, I don't think it's a massive uplift. Teague could be really good some nights and other nights almost totally indifferent.

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

I think this team is an improvement on 2019. I think DLO is a little overrated but I like him more than Wiggins and should be a better fit. I like our collection of wings and I think we'll have a better bench. #1 overall picks are supposed to make an immediate impact and so we have to get better. If not now (we've said this every year i know) then KAT will ask for a trade and we'll be back to zero again.