AbeVigodaLive wrote:KG4Ever wrote:I really want to see Jarrett Culver break out this year. His 13 for 13 at the stripe gives me some hope. I never believed he'd continue to shoot as bad as he showed last year as free throw shooting in college is the same distance as the NBA and he wasn't horrible there. I hope Edwards shows better than what I expect. Edwards and Culver have the most upside of anyone other than KAT and the Wolves definitely need to hit on at least one of the two.
For reals. With how he was hitting the backboard before the rim on free throws last season... 13 - 13 is a real sign of progress.
Of everybody, I think he has the best upside THIS season. I don't think he'll ever be a star, but at least I can sort of imagine him developing into a 15/5/5 type of guy with solid defense.
I wonder how good Culver can ultimately be. I guess you never know because some guys can totally blow up and show you something you've never really seen from them before, and other guys just totally flame out with no explanation. But here's a quick attempt to look into Culver's possible future.
First, obviously, he has to improve his shooting. 40% FG, 30% 3PT, 46% FT. League averages are 46% FG, 36% 3PT, and 77% FT. Let's say he just gets halfway to average and shoots 43% FG, 33% 3PT, and (math math math) 62% FT. You'd expect he might take a couple more shots a game this year with that improvement, but he'll really be competing for shots with DLO, Beasley, and Edwards, so I'm not sure we can count on that. His FT% was so horrific last year, and even if he got it up to 62%, I'm still not sure I'd want him trying to draw more fouls. He only went to the line 2 times a game last year, mercifully. So on a superficial level, you could say his FT% didn't hurt us that much, but it may also be the case that he wasn't driving specifically because he knew going to the line wasn't a high percentage play. And I do think it would be good for him to be able to be a threat to attack the basket more, since his handles are at least ok. So I think improving his FT% might be the most useful thing to him as a player and us as a team if it helped give him the confidence to drive at times, even if only off of cuts more. So let's be a little optimistic and assume he can get his FT% up to 70% with 43% FG and 33% 3PT. That's still a subpar shooter, but 33% from 3 is enough to stretch the floor at least a bit if the guy is a willing shooter. That's still a more efficient shot (.99 PPS) than the league average 2 pointer at .92 PPS. Keep him on the floor with shooters and you can survive that. Now, that's all if he improves to being just a below average shooter, as opposed to the horrific one he is now. If he actually became an average shooter, then all the defense and some of the other skills he has are a plus.
So what are those other skills? Obviously, when you watch him play, it looks like he's a good man defender. I'd say really good. We need that on this team, especially with DLO and KAT as our cornerstones. He looks longer than Okogie and Edwards (Lip, can we get a wingspan check?), and he has the defensive flexibility to guard 1-3 at least, with maybe some smaller 4s out there. Could he become a real lockdown defender? A thinner Jimmy Butler? A taller, less intense Patrick Beverly? It's definitely possible. If he managed to become a league average 3 point shooter and a lockdown defender, then we're in business with a good 3 & D role player.
The last area of his game that could potentially give us more is the other things he does for us on the offensive end. I like his potential in the transition game. He does seem to do a decent job grabbing defensive rebounds and looking up the court to pass or push the ball. He's got the handles to do that and he's a willing passer. Now, he does have the size and basic offensive tools that you need to have as a bare minimum for a very good 2 way wing. He can handle and pass well for his size. And theoretically, that's the profile you want to see from a guy who could end up becoming a star wing IF he actually improves significantly in that area. Personally, I don't think his handles are quite good enough, and I just don't think he's quick enough to ever really become a star wing in that sense. But there are methodical players who were not super quick and who became very good wings. I'm thinking of Brandon Roy here or, if you have seen Cade Cunningham play, he's not the fastest guy in the world, but he just has a lot of all-around good skills and always seems to make good, patient decisions. I guess theoretically, Culver could move into that sort of territory in a best case scenario. I think more likely, he'll land somewhere around a rich-man's Kyle Anderson (a bit shorter) or maybe Nic Batum when he was not at his peak, but also not terrible Batum.
Since I doubt the star scenario would happen, I'll stick more with assuming he improves only somewhat in those offensive areas and focuses his major improvement on his shooting. In that case, in the half court offensively, he should not be the first option to initiate the offense, but he does have the passing and handles and length to be a guy you give it to to initiate some offense after the PG has tried it out. In terms of creating shots for others, our best players are probably: Rubio, JMAC (sadly, won't play much), DLO, and then . . . Edwards? Towns from the post? Basically, this team drops off significantly there. And that's where a guy like Culver could be helpful. Another guy who can handle the ball a bit AND create some shots for others. If you put him out there with DLO and Beasley, I can definitely see him being a decent drive and kick guy. Theoretically, Edwards should join that group as well, but it's still really early in the clock of his development yet, and I'd assume he'll be pretty inefficient in that respect this year. That's kind of why I like the idea of alternating Culver and Edwards on the court, since they could play similar roles as secondary playmakers out there. It makes more sense I think to start DLO, Beasley, Culver, and then lean on Rubio, Edwards, Okogie (with whatever 4s and 5s are shooting the 3 the best) for heavy minutes off the bench, with (yes) Culver, Okogie, and Edwards defending the 4 (out of necessity) when the matchup allows.
In the likeliest best case scenario, I could see Culver becoming a very good 3 & D guy who can also playmake a little. Probably not as good a shooter as Wes Matthews, but also a very good defender (with Michael Pietrus or Frank Nilikina size) but also with a bit of playmaking. That's not too bad. Not what you hope for with the 6th pick, not as good or as big as OG Anunoby (a great 3 & D guy I love), but with more playmaking.
The most likely scenario at this point is that he just becomes a (better) below average shooter and very good defender who you can more easily play in certain lineups and against certain teams. The defense is great, and you want to be able to put that on an opposing team's star, but the weak shooting makes that such a liability, so if this middle scenario came to pass, I think he'd be more like the guy you want to have the luxury to throw out there to shut down an offensive spark plug off the bench for the opposing side rather than the guy whose shooting woes you have to suffer through.
The worst case scenario is that we get what we see. Years ago, I would have been pulling for him to become a Trenton Hassell-type, but these days, if you can't space the floor, you really can't play much. So if that shooting doesn't improve significantly, I don't see much of a future for him. Let's hope those preseason FTs are a sign of things to come!
