Best in the West Ranking

[SameOldNudityDrew]

Khans:
"Houston is getting overrated a bit because of having CP3 and Harden, but the rest of their team is full of role players and there's only one ball for two primary ball handlers to share."

Kiwi
"I also think Houston won't be as good as everyone expects and can see them in a three way battle for third spot with the Spurs and Wolves."

I actually think Houston is going to be really dangerous this year. Houston was #3 in the West and won 55 games last year, and then they got a lot better this offseason.

They added Chris Paul. That's crazy. Arguably the best two-way PG in the league. I'm not worried about he and Harden playing together. Harden has played the two his whole career before last year, and CP3 is as much a distributer as a scorer. Both are great passers and scorers and I think their games will mesh perfectly. They can also stagger their minutes a bit to keep one on the floor at all times.

The rest of that roster is perfectly built for a couple of ball-dominant guards. Capela is improving a lot (if you haven't seen him play, you really need to), and he is a perfect rolling big man for those two. Then the rest of the team is made up of 3 and D guys, defenders who don't need a lot of shots, and sharpshooters to stretch the floor.

In terms of defense, in addition to Paul, they've got Ariza and Capela who are both good defenders, and they've added PJ Tucker and LRMAM, both of whom are really good defenders and all 4 of them are switchable.

Three of those defenders are also great 3 and D guys. Ariza has averaged 37% from 3 the last 5 years and is still a great defender. PJ Tucker's career 3 point average is 35% but he shot 40% from 3 last year, so he's at least average and can be really good. LRMAM shot 39% from 3 last year and 50% overall and has become a really efficient scorer when called on.

Then they still have Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson to stretch the floor if they need volume 3 point shooting guaranteed between 38-40%. Those guys aren't great defenders, but with Capela, Paul, and any of Ariza, Tucker, and LRMAM, their defensive weaknesses can be covered.

They lost Beverley, who I love, but that's about it. Lou Williams was good, but he was on that team for only a couple months. The rest of the guys they traded were non-factors.

Again, this team already won 55 games in the tough western conference last year, and then they added Paul, Tucker, LRMAM, and can probably expect Capela to keep improving. If I were Golden State, I'd be looking over my shoulder at those guys.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I agree Drew. Houston is damn scary - just outstanding roster construction, similar to the job Presti did this offseason with OKC.

I also have a feeling that they will back off their "never ever take a mid-range shot" dogma that bit them in the ass in the playoffs. That's not to say they still won't launch up a ton of 3's, but I don't see Chris Paul passing up an open 16-footer so that he can drive into the teeth of a the defense or kick it out to a well covered shooter.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

I agree Drew. Houston is damn scary - just outstanding roster construction, similar to the job Presti did this offseason with OKC.

I also have a feeling that they will back off their "never ever take a mid-range shot" dogma that bit them in the ass in the playoffs. That's not to say they still won't launch up a ton of 3's, but I don't see Chris Paul passing up an open 16-footer so that he can drive into the teeth of a the defense or kick it out to a well covered shooter.

Yep, midrange shots are not optimal, but midrange shots from one of the best midrange shooters in the game are pretty good. And Paul will have even more operating space than he ever has because that team has more 3 point shooting than any team he's ever been on. They've got offensive flexibility now they didn't have before. They can still do the "3s and layups" thing when they want, and they probably still will do that a lot, but now they can do more offensively. Their deep threat helps to open it up, and Paul is in a great position to take advantage. You never know with these things, but man it's hard not to see that team being really, really good.

[mjs34]

If they truly try and correct the foul issue, Houston is going to be considerably less effective. I think they are going to take a step back. SA will still be getting calls, and as long as Kawhi is healthy they are going to flirt with 60 wins due to their system. I see GS having a tougher time, as I think most teams will try and be more physical with them. OKC is very thin, and while PG is a huge upgrade, I don't see Melo helping at all. Utah isn't SA, and will struggle to fill the hole left by GH.

Unfortunately I think the wolves are going to struggle to mesh early on (if not throughout the season), and will likely be stuck on the bubble with teams like Denver, Portland and Memphis.

GS/SA
OKC
HOU

MIN/LAC/DEN/POR/MEM

[Monster]

I agree Drew. Houston is damn scary - just outstanding roster construction, similar to the job Presti did this offseason with OKC.

I also have a feeling that they will back off their "never ever take a mid-range shot" dogma that bit them in the ass in the playoffs. That's not to say they still won't launch up a ton of 3's, but I don't see Chris Paul passing up an open 16-footer so that he can drive into the teeth of a the defense or kick it out to a well covered shooter.

Yep, midrange shots are not optimal, but midrange shots from one of the best midrange shooters in the game are pretty good. And Paul will have even more operating space than he ever has because that team has more 3 point shooting than any team he's ever been on. They've got offensive flexibility now they didn't have before. They can still do the "3s and layups" thing when they want, and they probably still will do that a lot, but now they can do more offensively. Their deep threat helps to open it up, and Paul is in a great position to take advantage. You never know with these things, but man it's hard not to see that team being really, really good.

Drew I think your breakdown of Houston was fantastic. One thing that does worry me about that squad to some extent are injuries. They have a number of key guys that tend to miss 20 or so games. They can likely weather some of those injuries in the regular season but losing a player or 2 in the playoffs would be more of a problem. I get the skeptism about Houston although I will say that IF Eric Gordon is healthy the argument could be made he is more than just a role player. Having said that...last year was the 2nd most minutes he has played in any season of his career. I like the guy I hope he stays healthy, but...

[TAFKASP]

Provided the Thunder can stay healthy I feel they're the only team that can knock on the Warriors door. A team of Westbrook, George and (a rejuvenated) Melo is enough to send shivers down any other teams spine. Add a defensive low post beast in Adams and a good wing defender in Roberson and that's up there with the best starting five in the league. There bench is pretty weak though, but if Donovan runs a 8 or 9 man rotation they should be ok. I have them as 2nd seed in the west.

I also think Houston won't be as good as everyone expects and can see them in a three way battle for third spot with the Spurs and Wolves.

All it takes is one or two injuries on any of these top five teams to change everything.

How awesome would it be to see Westbrook's Thunder take down Durant's Warriors?

[Coolbreeze44]

I think this is a very difficult exercise. I have a hard time believing the the Spurs will fall too far, but I hope they do and Kawhi's hip isn't going to help things. Llke SJM I don't think Melo is going to make the Thunder appreciably better. In fact he might be a negative factor on that group. I have no idea how good Houston is going to be, but i know they will not win the West. Don't sleep on Portland, they always seem to find a way to be better than you would think. Here is a complete stab in the dark on how the West will stack up.

1) Golden State
2) OKC
3) San Antonio
4) Houston
5) Wolves
6) Portland
7) LA Clippers
8) Denver

[Lipoli390]

Some really good analyses in this thread.

One clarification on my initial post. I actually was thinking of Capela when I listed Black. I was suffering from some sort of brain lock and confused the two. Thanks for pointing that out, Monster.

My ranking was strictly limited to my analysis of relative roster strength. So I see the Wolves at #4 on paper ahead of the Spurs and not far behind Houston and OKC. I don't think any team in the West has anything close to the Warriors' talent. But then there's the question of where these teams will finish in the standings. Where teams finish doesn't necessarily reflect how teams stack up from a talent standpoint. That's where coaching, experience and continuity will play a big role.

The Warriors not only have the best talent, they also are experienced both individually and collectively as a team and have a proven track record of dominating. The Rockets have a proven track record as a 55-win team last season and they've upgraded by adding Chris Paul. Nevertheless, I think they'll take a slight step back as Harden and Paul learn to play together and as Paul adjusts to D'antoni. OKC is, along with the Wolves, the most improved team in the West and they made the playoffs last season without Paul George or Melo. They are very close to the Rockets talent wise, so I could easily see the Thunder finishing ahead of the Rockets. I have a hard time seeing how the Spurs can win even 50 games with the aging and injured Parker out for a while and after losing Dedmon. Pop is a great coach and the system has worked well, but it's ultimately about the players. Yet, it's hard to predict the Wolves finishing ahead of the Spurs in spite of what I see as the Wolves clearly superior talent.

The only prediction I'll make is that the Warriors will have the best record in the West. I could see the Rockets, OKC or even the Wolves finishing second. One thing for certain is that the West is really really good and deep. Denver could be a very good team. As Cool said, you can't count out Portland. The Pelicans are very talented and Memphis will be tough to beat all season.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

I think the Thunder are #2 and we are #3 based on pure roster talent. Houston is getting overrated a bit because of having CP3 and Harden, but the rest of their team is full of role players and there's only one ball for two primary ball handlers to share. I would put Melo/Adams and Teague/Wiggins over the 3rd best player on Houston and Westbrook/PG and Butler/Towns are close to CP3/Harden. SA based on talent is in the right spot, but they always find a way to churn out 50+ wins even picking up games with multiple starters resting.

Talent
GS
OKC
MN
HOU
SA

W-L
GS
HOU
SA
OKC
MM

Khans, I'm in agreement with you that we have a top 3 talented team, but aren't likely to finish in the top 4, but I'm curious as to why you think we are going to underachieve (a #5 finish with #3 talent is underachieving, I think). What is your thought provess?

We have a significant amount of quality turnover and I don't expect it to gel for a while. Teague, Butler, Wiggins and Towns were all top 2 options for their teams last year and now they have to learn how to share the ball more. 2, possibly 3 new starters is a big change. OKC is basically the same team with PG and Melo. Houston replaced Beverly with CP3 and lost Lou Williams, but that's pretty much it. The Spurs are basically the same team with Rudy. I think we have more turnover than the other top teams and our guys are going to have to sacrifice more than the other teams new guys with maybe the exception of Melo.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

I'm worried about Houston with CP3 and Harden off the floor. CP3 usually misses some games and then you have Harden and who to run the offense? They lost Lou Williams and Beverly. That's putting a lot on Gordon to be the 3rd and sometimes second playmaker on the team and he has issues staying healthy for a full 82 as well. The West is even tougher across the board and they are the typical built on a house of cards team with 2 stars and the rest supporting cast. And they don't have the Spurs system as their backup if people go down. They're very top heavy whereas GS, OKC and us have more quality depth at the top. You lose one guy and have 2-3 to step in. They lose one guy and end up like the Westbrook Thunder last year which is not an elite team in a conference with potentially 4-5 of them.