Minnesota Sports Forum

I honestly think the Jazz take a hard step back. This team played way over their heads last season. They were 29-6 to finish the year. Certainly an awesome run....but with their roster pieces, I certainly wouldn't expect a similar run again. Again, they finished 29-5 and made playoffs by 2 games. They will likely lose Favors and add Grayson Allen. Meh....

lipoli390 wrote:

worldK wrote:I see 2 keys for us if we want to make the playoffs.

1. Health. Jimmy play 70-75 games.

2. Start strong. - 8 or 9 (if belly stay) rotation players are back. The starting 5 was one of the best last season. The chemistry and familarity is there. We dont need the first month or so to build chemistry. We should start the season rolling and getting as many wins as possible. If we somehow play .500 level to start the first 30 games then we are in trouble.

I think we are a playoff team as long as we stay healthy. Where we rank and the ceiling of the team is the unknown. That is where other factors like

1.towns improving his d.
2. Wiggins and tyus taking a leap.
3 The rookies contributing.

Those are going to help determine the true ceiling of the team. I will give it a year more to see how this go.

Good analysis, World. But I don't think Tyus needs to "take a leap." All he needs to do is continue the incremental improvement he's already shown. Wiggins is the guy who needs to take a leap. He has never shown a trajectory of improvement over his 4 year career and last season he actually regressed.

Unfortunately, Butler's history suggests he won't play 70+ games much less 75-80. And history also strongly suggests that Wiggins won't take a leap. Rookies typically don't contribute much no matter who they are. So sadly, the odds are against any of three things you listed actually happening - except that Tyus will likely continue to improve because that's been his pattern since coming to the NBA.

I think Tyus can take a "leap" (we are sort of in the weeds on semantics I think) if he becomes a better volume 3 point shooter and he actually gets more minutes which has been reported Thibs assured him of.

I agree with what Lip is saying though that we probably need to see Wiggins take a "leap" in some way more and it's less likely than Tyus because of each of their improvements over their careers. Honestly if Wiggins actually just became a plus defender and wasn't much better offensively that would not be insignificant. We will see but there is some upside to this roster both with young players and everyone including vets meshing better. A couple decent complimentary bench guys could help all that.

Hicks123 wrote:I honestly think the Jazz take a hard step back. This team played way over their heads last season. They were 29-6 to finish the year. Certainly an awesome run....but with their roster pieces, I certainly wouldn't expect a similar run again. Again, they finished 29-5 and made playoffs by 2 games. They will likely lose Favors and add Grayson Allen. Meh....

That's a pretty decent case there. I'll say though if Sefelosha comes back healthy (MCL) that's a solid piece to what they have already. It's gonna be tough there is gonna be at least one good team that doesn't make it in. Unless they take some sort of significant step back the Jazz are a good team. Let's see if Favors actually leaves. Are there other teams that are gonna pay him a decent chunk of money and start him? Let's see.

Well, history tells us that it's never too early to go negative on the Wolves... but I'm mostly going to resist that for now. I think KAT, Wig, Tyus, Dieng, and Belly all improve this year (assuming everyone is still here), after a year of adjusting to Butler, Taj and Teague, and the loss of Rubio. Rose and the new rookies are wild cards -- not sure what to expect from any of them.

For me, I think the biggest question mark is Thibs. I don't think he's the right coach for this team, and I don't think he's the right PBO for it, either. I think the team is plenty talented enough to make the playoffs, even in this incredibly stacked Western Conference, but I can't be confident Thibs doesn't hold them back.

monsterpile wrote:

Hicks123 wrote:I honestly think the Jazz take a hard step back. This team played way over their heads last season. They were 29-6 to finish the year. Certainly an awesome run....but with their roster pieces, I certainly wouldn't expect a similar run again. Again, they finished 29-5 and made playoffs by 2 games. They will likely lose Favors and add Grayson Allen. Meh....

That's a pretty decent case there. I'll say though if Sefelosha comes back healthy (MCL) that's a solid piece to what they have already. It's gonna be tough there is gonna be at least one good team that doesn't make it in. Unless they take some sort of significant step back the Jazz are a good team. Let's see if Favors actually leaves. Are there other teams that are gonna pay him a decent chunk of money and start him? Let's see.

I don't think Utah is a fluke.

Remember, that run didn't come out of left field when you consider that run largely coincided with Gobert's return. They were 37 - 19 with him in the lineup. And there have always been concerns with the spacing with both Gobert and Favors next to each other. It's no secret Favors was much more impactful individually when Gobert was out.

Plus, you have Donovan Mitchell for year 2. How many NBA players who play that well for that good of a team regress in Season 2 throughout NBA history?

And what happens in Cleveland without James? Why keep Kevin Love? Many Utah fans have been eyeing him... and Gobert would help hide some of his defensive weaknesses... even though they'd still struggle with teams like Houston and GSW with both on the floor.

monsterpile wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:

worldK wrote:I see 2 keys for us if we want to make the playoffs.

1. Health. Jimmy play 70-75 games.

2. Start strong. - 8 or 9 (if belly stay) rotation players are back. The starting 5 was one of the best last season. The chemistry and familarity is there. We dont need the first month or so to build chemistry. We should start the season rolling and getting as many wins as possible. If we somehow play .500 level to start the first 30 games then we are in trouble.

I think we are a playoff team as long as we stay healthy. Where we rank and the ceiling of the team is the unknown. That is where other factors like

1.towns improving his d.
2. Wiggins and tyus taking a leap.
3 The rookies contributing.

Those are going to help determine the true ceiling of the team. I will give it a year more to see how this go.

Good analysis, World. But I don't think Tyus needs to "take a leap." All he needs to do is continue the incremental improvement he's already shown. Wiggins is the guy who needs to take a leap. He has never shown a trajectory of improvement over his 4 year career and last season he actually regressed.

Unfortunately, Butler's history suggests he won't play 70+ games much less 75-80. And history also strongly suggests that Wiggins won't take a leap. Rookies typically don't contribute much no matter who they are. So sadly, the odds are against any of three things you listed actually happening - except that Tyus will likely continue to improve because that's been his pattern since coming to the NBA.

I think Tyus can take a "leap" (we are sort of in the weeds on semantics I think) if he becomes a better volume 3 point shooter and he actually gets more minutes which has been reported Thibs assured him of.

I agree with what Lip is saying though that we probably need to see Wiggins take a "leap" in some way more and it's less likely than Tyus because of each of their improvements over their careers. Honestly if Wiggins actually just became a plus defender and wasn't much better offensively that would not be insignificant. We will see but there is some upside to this roster both with young players and everyone including vets meshing better. A couple decent complimentary bench guys could help all that.

Regarding tyus. What im going for is if he will eventually develop into a same level player like teague is in his prime. 2 different type of players but if tyus can run a team better. Be an above average high volume 3pt shooter and an above average defender then he can be just as good as teague is at his peak.

Wiggins is the biggest wild card as where the team's true ceiling is. If he can be a paul george/ oladipo level player then we are going to be a threat to the powerhouse teams. But if he is in the harrison barnes/rudy gay level then we are a 1 round and done playoff team. If he is derozen 2.0 then we win a couple more games and maybe get into the 2nd round and nothing more. How wiggins develop is the buggest key to how high the ceiling if the team is.

I will reiterate my point that we must start the season strong and kill and smoke teams and getting as many wins as we can. The starting 5 (one if the best in the league last year) Are all back. The rotation likely stays the same especially if belly resigns. Everyone knows their roles and are used to each other. That is an advantage we have early in the season and we should take full advantage of it.

Bottom Line: The West just got a lot better.

So there were 9 legit playoff teams from last season. And the Lakers make 10. Have any of them (sans major injury) regressed enough to fall out?

Plus...

Dallas. Added Doncic and Jordan. 2nd year with Dennis Smith. They will be better. 10 games? 20 games? No idea... but it's hard to imagine the Mavs being anywhere remotely to as crappy as last season. The move for Jordan indicates the franchise wants to win. Now.

Memphis. Will have Gasol and Conley healthy? For years, they've done better than expected. If those guys are healthy, they're not losing 60 games. They're not losing 50 games. They might not lose 40 games. Fortunately, the Wolves couldn't even beat the Grizzlies skeleton crew... so it's hard to lose much more to them next year.

LA Clippers. So... the drop from Jordan to Gortat is legit. As of now... this team doesn't look like a playoff team. But I didn't think they were either last season and gave it a good run to the end.

Sacramento. Still a terrible franchise. But they added a possible 20/10 guy. They'll be a tough beat some nights.

Phoenix. A healthy Booker. The #1 pick in the draft (Ayton). Josh Jackson had a really solid 2nd half. Mikal Bridges seems solid enough. They won't be worse than last season. 10 more wins? Semi-respectability?

________________________________

Healthy Butler or not. An engaged Wiggins or not. A defensive-minded KAT or not. Thibs yelling and berating players or not. Long-range jumpers or not... the Wolves aren't a lock for the playoffs.

And if they miss out. And with players being universally encouraged and praised for leaving teams (worthy of another thread)... well, I don't want to consider the alternative. Yuck.

AbeVigodaLive wrote:Bottom Line: The West just got a lot better.

So there were 9 legit playoff teams from last season. And the Lakers make 10. Have any of them (sans major injury) regressed enough to fall out?

Plus...

Dallas. Added Doncic and Jordan. 2nd year with Dennis Smith. They will be better. 10 games? 20 games? No idea... but it's hard to imagine the Mavs being anywhere remotely to as crappy as last season. The move for Jordan indicates the franchise wants to win. Now.

Memphis. Will have Gasol and Conley healthy? For years, they've done better than expected. If those guys are healthy, they're not losing 60 games. They're not losing 50 games. They might not lose 40 games. Fortunately, the Wolves couldn't even beat the Grizzlies skeleton crew... so it's hard to lose much more to them next year.

LA Clippers. So... the drop from Jordan to Gortat is legit. As of now... this team doesn't look like a playoff team. But I didn't think they were either last season and gave it a good run to the end.

Sacramento. Still a terrible franchise. But they added a possible 20/10 guy. They'll be a tough beat some nights.

Phoenix. A healthy Booker. The #1 pick in the draft (Ayton). Josh Jackson had a really solid 2nd half. Mikal Bridges seems solid enough. They won't be worse than last season. 10 more wins? Semi-respectability?

________________________________

Healthy Butler or not. An engaged Wiggins or not. A defensive-minded KAT or not. Thibs yelling and berating players or not. Long-range jumpers or not... the Wolves aren't a lock for the playoffs.

And if they miss out. And with players being universally encouraged and praised for leaving teams (worthy of another thread)... well, I don't want to consider the alternative. Yuck.

You laid it out well here Abe and I agree with all you said. Just a couple things to add:

The Kings are abad organization and i have doubts they are gonna be any good. Better than last year? Sure. IMO their best player was Bogdonivic...which isn't a good thing and I like him a lot. They will probably be bad though all in all unless some young guys really break through which is possible but not likely.

The Suns also added Ariza. They also added a different coach. I like Triano but they is a chance this new guy is better. Triano was/is likely one of the worst coaches in the league so an upgrade is possible. Like you said they will probably be more respectable.

Portland and Utah both went on insane runs last year and it got them a whopping 2 game lead on the 8th seed. I don't see the runs they made as sustainable. I don't see a ton of room for Mitchell to improve because he did everything but shoot efficiently which is something that usually takes more than a year to develop if it ever improves. He's already an all-star PG and played like one. I don't know how he significantly improves from that already high level. I think Utah is the same team this year and that insane run is a lot less likely to happen in an even more stacked West. Portland also went on an insane run that got them the 3 seed and again that's gonna be harder to do this year. NO without Boogie is one 2-4 week absence from AD (he's had in the past due to injuries) away from not being a playoff team. OKC is really the only team I see above us from last year that is sustainable for this year with their whole team coming back and we just have more talent than them. I think we are pretty clearly in the 3/4 spot with OKC based on talent and we're gonna see some of these teams that went inferno last year struggle to do so this year with an even bigger gauntlet to run through.

Sundog wrote:Well, history tells us that it's never too early to go negative on the Wolves... but I'm mostly going to resist that for now. I think KAT, Wig, Tyus, Dieng, and Belly all improve this year (assuming everyone is still here), after a year of adjusting to Butler, Taj and Teague, and the loss of Rubio. Rose and the new rookies are wild cards -- not sure what to expect from any of them.

For me, I think the biggest question mark is Thibs. I don't think he's the right coach for this team, and I don't think he's the right PBO for it, either. I think the team is plenty talented enough to make the playoffs, even in this incredibly stacked Western Conference, but I can't be confident Thibs doesn't hold them back.

Well said, Sundog.