Minnesota Sports Forum

lipoli390 wrote:

CoolBreeze44 wrote:I'm expecting a trade to open up some cap room. I have no idea what that trade will be, but i think it has to be done in conjunction with our free agent moves.

I have a similar feeling, Cool. I see a significant trade happening, but I don't think it will be a cap-opening move because I can't see how the Wolves get significantly below the cap and free up cap space that would exceed the $8.8M MLE. But I would agree with you if you mean a trade that would allow the Wolves to re-sign Belly and spend the full MLE without bumping up against the luxury tax. More likely, I see the Wolves trying to trade Gorgui, possibly in conjunction with Diop, for a rotation player who Thibodeau believes would be an upgrade. I also suspect that Thibodeau will be quietly shopping Wiggins. Honestly, Butler, KAT and Gibson are the only three players on the roster Thibodeau absolutely will not trade this summer.

I just don't see these deals with the contracts and players the Wolves have right now.

I don't see the market for Belly getting a big enough deal to be worried about making deals to have room for him. If he gets a full mid level deal fine let him go and sign some other guy for half that or even less vet min etc. I'm a big fan and getting him back would be somethijg definately want to see but he simply hasn't proven to be healthy and consistent enough as a guy that just turned 30 to get that type of deal which is basically a premium this offseason. I think it's possible he plays for the qualifying offer which would allow him to be an UFA next year (probably a bit more money available) and go elsewhere if he wanted a different role than what it is here.

Outgoing: SG Jamal Crawford, SF/PF Nemanja Bjelica, PG Aaron Brooks, SF Anthony Brown, SG/SF Marcus Georges-Hunt, and C Cole Aldrich.

Incoming: SG/SF Josh Okogie (4-yrs/$10.6M), SF/PF Keita Bates-Diop (3-yrs/$3.8M), SG Joe Harris (4-yrs/$22.0M), SF/PF Jerami Grant (4-yrs/$13.5M), PF/C Ed Davis (2-yrs/$6.8M), PF Amile Jefferson (1-yr/$1.5M), and PG/SG Derrick Rose (1-yr/$1.5M).

PG: Jeff Teague / Tyus Jones / Derrick Rose
SG: Jimmy Butler / Joe Harris / Josh Okogie
SF: Andrew Wiggins / Jerami Grant / Keita Bates-Diop
PF: Taj Gibson / Justin Patton / Amile Jefferson
C: Karl-Anthony Towns / Ed Davis / Gorgui Dieng

TheSP wrote:

Q12543 wrote:Wayne Ellington would be an excellent pick up IMO.

Wouldn't it be nice if the Wolves draft a guy like Ellington?

Indeed. But remember if he came back, his shooting percentage would drop 5 points.

Camden wrote:Outgoing: SG Jamal Crawford, SF/PF Nemanja Bjelica, PG Aaron Brooks, SF Anthony Brown, SG/SF Marcus Georges-Hunt, and C Cole Aldrich.

Incoming: SG/SF Josh Okogie (4-yrs/$10.6M), SF/PF Keita Bates-Diop (3-yrs/$3.8M), SG Joe Harris (4-yrs/$22.0M), SF/PF Jerami Grant (4-yrs/$13.5M), PF/C Ed Davis (2-yrs/$6.8M), PF Amile Jefferson (1-yr/$1.5M), and PG/SG Derrick Rose (1-yr/$1.5M).

PG: Jeff Teague / Tyus Jones / Derrick Rose
SG: Jimmy Butler / Joe Harris / Josh Okogie
SF: Andrew Wiggins / Jerami Grant / Keita Bates-Diop
PF: Taj Gibson / Justin Patton / Amile Jefferson
C: Karl-Anthony Towns / Ed Davis / Gorgui Dieng

While I like the talent and balance of that roster, I think it's unlikely we are able to afford free agents like Harris, Davis and Grant unless we unload either Gorgui or Wig. I agree that Belly and Cole are gone, but even with them gone the roster above would put us about $5 million over the lux tax threshold. While this would only cost Glen about $10 million in tax this year (only...easy for me to say since it's not my money), the real concern is 2019-20. Being a luxury tax repeater results in a much more onerous tax situation, and I think Glen will do everything he can to avoid the absurdly high tax this would result in.

I calculate the Wolves at about $110 million on the 8 guaranteed contracts (including the Martin stretch and a Cole buyout)...Belly is definitely gone. That leaves about $13 million to spend on the remaining 7 roster spots, or less than $2 million per contract. I think one of two things will happen this offseason.

1) Thibs finds a way to unload either Gorgui or Wig, which gives him a little room to spend on mid-range kind of guys like Harris, Grant and Davis along with some lower-priced guys like Jefferson.


2) He keeps all of the guaranteed contracts including Wig and G, and fills out the roster with 7 guys averaging under $2 million per. It's clear to me that guys like Harris will be too expensive if we can't unload one of our bigger contracts.

One thing's for sure. Keep everything short. Two years with an option 3rd max of you expect that player to be a starter. Flexibility is the key with bench pieces because they don't always work out and being stuck 4 years with bench players that don't work is killer. Crawford's deal was a perfect example. Imagine if he was signed guaranteed for another year or two.

khans2k5 wrote:One thing's for sure. Keep everything short. Two years with an option 3rd max of you expect that player to be a starter. Flexibility is the key with bench pieces because they don't always work out and being stuck 4 years with bench players that don't work is killer. Crawford's deal was a perfect example. Imagine if he was signed guaranteed for another year or two.

Yep...I agree. Thibs was smart last year with only giving Jamal one year, and I expect him to do it again this year. With the limited dollars we have to spend in free agency, we will be targeting players that don't have a lot of options, which should put us in the driver's seat in terms of length of contract.

longstrangetrip wrote:

Camden wrote:Outgoing: SG Jamal Crawford, SF/PF Nemanja Bjelica, PG Aaron Brooks, SF Anthony Brown, SG/SF Marcus Georges-Hunt, and C Cole Aldrich.

Incoming: SG/SF Josh Okogie (4-yrs/$10.6M), SF/PF Keita Bates-Diop (3-yrs/$3.8M), SG Joe Harris (4-yrs/$22.0M), SF/PF Jerami Grant (4-yrs/$13.5M), PF/C Ed Davis (2-yrs/$6.8M), PF Amile Jefferson (1-yr/$1.5M), and PG/SG Derrick Rose (1-yr/$1.5M).

PG: Jeff Teague / Tyus Jones / Derrick Rose
SG: Jimmy Butler / Joe Harris / Josh Okogie
SF: Andrew Wiggins / Jerami Grant / Keita Bates-Diop
PF: Taj Gibson / Justin Patton / Amile Jefferson
C: Karl-Anthony Towns / Ed Davis / Gorgui Dieng

While I like the talent and balance of that roster, I think it's unlikely we are able to afford free agents like Harris, Davis and Grant unless we unload either Gorgui or Wig. I agree that Belly and Cole are gone, but even with them gone the roster above would put us about $5 million over the lux tax threshold. While this would only cost Glen about $10 million in tax this year (only...easy for me to say since it's not my money), the real concern is 2019-20. Being a luxury tax repeater results in a much more onerous tax situation, and I think Glen will do everything he can to avoid the absurdly high tax this would result in.

I calculate the Wolves at about $110 million on the 8 guaranteed contracts (including the Martin stretch and a Cole buyout)...Belly is definitely gone. That leaves about $13 million to spend on the remaining 7 roster spots, or less than $2 million per contract. I think one of two things will happen this offseason.

1) Thibs finds a way to unload either Gorgui or Wig, which gives him a little room to spend on mid-range kind of guys like Harris, Grant and Davis along with some lower-priced guys like Jefferson.


2) He keeps all of the guaranteed contracts including Wig and G, and fills out the roster with 7 guys averaging under $2 million per. It's clear to me that guys like Harris will be too expensive if we can't unload one of our bigger contracts.

I agree, LST. I love Cam's scenario from a talent and roster balance standpoint. Joe Harris would be a great FA acquisition as would Jerami Grant and Ed Davis. Those three would substantially improve our bench, our 3-point shooting and our rim protection. But the luxury tax situation is more serious and limiting than a lot of folks seem to realize.

Even if we release Belly and forego all of our cap holds, the Wolves would have $113,773,675 in active guaranteed salaries. We can trim about $4.7 million of that if we waive Aldrich, which would leave us with $109M. But then you have to add in $1.79M for Okogie's rookie scale contract and probably another $1M for Diop. That would put our active salary total at $111.79M. Then you have to dead money for Kevin Martin's stretch ($1.36M) and the Shabazz release ($1.238M). That brings the total taxable amount to about $114.4M. Given a luxury tax threshold of $123M, the Wolves would have just enough to spend the full MLE without going over that threshold. There would be no room to sign Belly or even Derrick Rose at any price and no room to use any other salary cap exception. You can look at spotrac.com and see the numbers. If Spotract is wrong about the Bazz dead money then the Wolves might have just enough room to sign Rose to the vet minimum.

Bottom line is that there just isn't room to maneuver without paying the luxury tax without a significant payroll-trimming trade. That's why I'm still concerned that Okogie may still be traded in the next few weeks.

I think this roster needs the boost from free agency this summer and paying the luxury tax to improve the team is something Glen Taylor and the rest of ownership can't shy away from.

Camden wrote:I think this roster needs the boost from free agency this summer and paying the luxury tax to improve the team is something Glen Taylor and the rest of ownership can't shy away from.

I don't disagree that this team could really use a boost from free agency, and the guys you mentioned might move the needle a little...assuming Thibs would give them sufficient minutes. But guys like Harris, Grant and Davis are not going to put us in contention in the tough West, and that's why I think Glen will be cautious this year. You have to do the math to see how absurd his luxury tax might be in 2019-20 if we are in a repeat situation. Paying a substantial amount of lux tax is palatable if there is a chance of a championship, but it's foolish if it's not. I suspect Glen might be willing to pay one year of a big lux tax in 2019-20 if he thought this club might be ready to take a big step, but I would be quite surprised if he got himself into a repeater situation. If the Wolves go over the lux threshold this season and don't at least get to a conference championship series, I can almost guarantee a big house cleaning next off season that would not make Wolves' fans happy.

lipoli390 wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:

Camden wrote:Outgoing: SG Jamal Crawford, SF/PF Nemanja Bjelica, PG Aaron Brooks, SF Anthony Brown, SG/SF Marcus Georges-Hunt, and C Cole Aldrich.

Incoming: SG/SF Josh Okogie (4-yrs/$10.6M), SF/PF Keita Bates-Diop (3-yrs/$3.8M), SG Joe Harris (4-yrs/$22.0M), SF/PF Jerami Grant (4-yrs/$13.5M), PF/C Ed Davis (2-yrs/$6.8M), PF Amile Jefferson (1-yr/$1.5M), and PG/SG Derrick Rose (1-yr/$1.5M).

PG: Jeff Teague / Tyus Jones / Derrick Rose
SG: Jimmy Butler / Joe Harris / Josh Okogie
SF: Andrew Wiggins / Jerami Grant / Keita Bates-Diop
PF: Taj Gibson / Justin Patton / Amile Jefferson
C: Karl-Anthony Towns / Ed Davis / Gorgui Dieng

While I like the talent and balance of that roster, I think it's unlikely we are able to afford free agents like Harris, Davis and Grant unless we unload either Gorgui or Wig. I agree that Belly and Cole are gone, but even with them gone the roster above would put us about $5 million over the lux tax threshold. While this would only cost Glen about $10 million in tax this year (only...easy for me to say since it's not my money), the real concern is 2019-20. Being a luxury tax repeater results in a much more onerous tax situation, and I think Glen will do everything he can to avoid the absurdly high tax this would result in.

I calculate the Wolves at about $110 million on the 8 guaranteed contracts (including the Martin stretch and a Cole buyout)...Belly is definitely gone. That leaves about $13 million to spend on the remaining 7 roster spots, or less than $2 million per contract. I think one of two things will happen this offseason.

1) Thibs finds a way to unload either Gorgui or Wig, which gives him a little room to spend on mid-range kind of guys like Harris, Grant and Davis along with some lower-priced guys like Jefferson.


2) He keeps all of the guaranteed contracts including Wig and G, and fills out the roster with 7 guys averaging under $2 million per. It's clear to me that guys like Harris will be too expensive if we can't unload one of our bigger contracts.

I agree, LST. I love Cam's scenario from a talent and roster balance standpoint. Joe Harris would be a great FA acquisition as would Jerami Grant and Ed Davis. Those three would substantially improve our bench, our 3-point shooting and our rim protection. But the luxury tax situation is more serious and limiting than a lot of folks seem to realize.

Even if we release Belly and forego all of our cap holds, the Wolves would have $113,773,675 in active guaranteed salaries. We can trim about $4.7 million of that if we waive Aldrich, which would leave us with $109M. But then you have to add in $1.79M for Okogie's rookie scale contract and probably another $1M for Diop. That would put our active salary total at $111.79M. Then you have to dead money for Kevin Martin's stretch ($1.36M) and the Shabazz release ($1.238M). That brings the total taxable amount to about $114.4M. Given a luxury tax threshold of $123M, the Wolves would have just enough to spend the full MLE without going over that threshold. There would be no room to sign Belly or even Derrick Rose at any price and no room to use any other salary cap exception. You can look at spotrac.com and see the numbers. If Spotract is wrong about the Bazz dead money then the Wolves might have just enough room to sign Rose to the vet minimum.

Bottom line is that there just isn't room to maneuver without paying the luxury tax without a significant payroll-trimming trade. That's why I'm still concerned that Okogie may still be traded in the next few weeks.

I like what Cam did here also. Basically he indentified some guys that probably won't be priorities and threw some decent money at them. I think Harris might need a bit more money but can and I like the idea of giving a decent chunk of that mid-level. He is driving that bus and I jumped on. I don't think we could get J. Grant that cheap I think OKC would gladly pay him that kind of money espcially with no real PF option (long term) after Melo.

If Glen is serious about being an owner he needs to have some willingness to spent the lux tax. I feel pretty confident in saying Bazz has no dead money. That helps. There is always the possibility that the Wolves could move Aldrich to a team for a future 2nd rounder or something like that to save 2 million. My guess is Glen and the Wolves will be willing to go into the lux tax if they get players they want (including Belly) at contracts they feel good about. If you can lock in Belly for say 4-5 million a year sure do it. If you can get Harris for a contract in the range Cam mentioned it's probably a worthwhile gamble. There could be other players like this you could add in this vein of those guys aren't signed plus they could be guys you could move later.

Personally one option I would consider exploring was taking on a bigger salary this season but reduces the length of time you have to pay the player on the roster similar to the Mosgov Howard deal. It would for sure put the Wolves innthe tax this year but might give them a shot at avoiding it in the future...maybe or at least reduce what you are paying in lux taxes down the road. I don't see Okogie getting dealt just for what is basically a salary dump. Thibs and Layden have often put some specific priorities on having some you players on the roster. Last season it was prioritizing bringing back Bazz and keeping MGH on the roster and to some extent not signing another PG over Tyus until getting Brooks later who rarely played.