Minnesota Sports Forum

I will try my best....

Whatever we do it was going to be a risk. Not every player shows improvement every single year. A lot of player level off at a point. And if we didn't make the trade we were praying that 4 one way players behind 2 way players (wiggins, towns, lavine: offense and Dunn defense). Also lavine is coming off ACL injury and we don't know what he will be now and he is going to get the near max or max. So 2 of our best players and max players have a negative on/off numbers.

Also what happens if we don't make the playoffs with lavine next year. Do we really want to give lavine the max when we haven't won with this core

Also one thing also in 2019 we have a sneaky possible positive cap situation. Rubio 14 mil, Butler 19 Mil, cole 7 mil and towns 6 mil all come off the books but we have all of there bird rights still. Allowing the wolves to possibly add anther max type player when wiggins is 25, towns 24, Butler 30 and they could cap space.

http://www.pressdemocrat.com/sports/3681783-181/for-warriors-bogut-ellis-was-a?artslide=0

Here is a fun article that highlights how fans booed, and GS people were fired over acquiring the oft injured Bogut and getting rid of Monta Ellis who was the team's top scorer at the time. It's all relative. Of course Monta wasn't part of the core as we see it now, but perceptions change. If Lavine never is the same after his injury we will forget this conversation.

thedoper wrote:http://www.pressdemocrat.com/sports/3681783-181/for-warriors-bogut-ellis-was-a?artslide=0

Here is a fun article that highlights how fans booed, and GS people were fired over acquiring the oft injured Bogut and getting rid of Monta Ellis who was the team's top scorer at the time. It's all relative. Of course Monta wasn't part of the core as we see it now, but perceptions change. If Lavine never is the same after his injury we will forget this conversation.

Yep. They added a big piece at the time in bogut, Lee and iggy. But they got really good because curry developed into a superstar (what towns and Wiggins need to do). And they drafted well when they stated to get good in klay and Draymond. (Someone we still need to do)

Make the trade and hope they make the playoffs or don't make the trade and hope to make the playoffs. We all think we have the blue print for making this team better. The only cold hard fact we have at this moment is Butler is better than lavine and all the players drafted yesterday. And that's good enough for me after 14 years of no playoffs.

kekgeek1 wrote:I will try my best....

Whatever we do it was going to be a risk. Not every player shows improvement every single year. A lot of player level off at a point. And if we didn't make the trade we were praying that 4 one way players behind 2 way players (wiggins, towns, lavine: offense and Dunn defense). Also lavine is coming off ACL injury and we don't know what he will be now and he is going to get the near max or max. So 2 of our best players and max players have a negative on/off numbers.

Also what happens if we don't make the playoffs with lavine next year. Do we really want to give lavine the max when we haven't won with this core

Also one thing also in 2019 we have a sneaky possible positive cap situation. Rubio 14 mil, Butler 19 Mil, cole 7 mil and towns 6 mil all come off the books but we have all of there bird rights still. Allowing the wolves to possibly add anther max type player when wiggins is 25, towns 24, Butler 30 and they could cap space.

This post is the only semblance of hope that makes sense to hang on to. I admit that I never did extrapolate the possibility of the bird rights and maxing out another player (I'm not a cap guru). Though I assume this means 4 near maxes, vet minimums/ring chasers/ draft picks and plucking undrafted FAs/dkeague guys? Forgive me if I give pause to the reality of us doing that correctly..

Still, I appreciate that insight.

Still not a true happy camper as a super fan of LaVine/Dunn.

When does FA start?!? Cause being outshot at the 3 gives me nightmares...

I was on the ledge of stopping following the team at first when this came out. Then I saw we got the #16 and ai felt better but didn't like it. By the end of the night ai started to come around. Trust me I get where you are coming from. I've joined the dark side. Why?

If you really do believe that both Dunn and Lavine were significant pieces then the first thing might be being more realistic about those guys. I don't really feel like picking them apart. I'll say this though reading and listening to some folks who are smart basketball people who do actually watch games throughout the league and know who Lavine is and some of them are big fans of his...are very concerned about his lack of defense and his lack of doing much of anything else but scoring. For example the Dunc'd on podcast even though they realize he is super young says Devin Booker might just be a top end scorer that does nothing else. That's jarring but it's worth considering. My point is that as much as I still like Lavine and I do believe he will turn into a wonderful offensive player I do think I had rose colored glasses on with him.

Dunn? It's not hard to make an arguement that Rubio and even Tyus were better players than him last year. I believe he will improve some but how much? Is it possible we are even overselling his defense? I never believed in his star side offensively but ai never thought he would be as bad as he was last year. I don't think he will continue to be that bad but if nothing else that FT% is a worry if you want him to be in games when it counts.

I think some of us have downplayed how damn good Butler is espcially with some other players getting all the headlines for averaging triple doubles etc. butler averaged 5.5 assists and almost 24ppg and had only 2.1 turnovers per game. That's really impressive. We just got an unbelieveablengood player that can do pretty much anything.

As for Butler leaving in 2 years. Let's be absolutely realistic here. 2 years is a short and long time. There is a lot that can happen in that timeline. If a Lavine is still here we would have had to pay him. What if Lavine isn't worth the likely max deal we gave him? Sure some team probably would take him off our hands that needs talent but where is the winning element then? Joe Crowley was on Barreiro yesterday and said some interesting stuff about Butler but said also that haveinf Dwayne Wade with him this year was good for him to learn about leadership and all that kind of stuff. He also said athletes love being around him. He works hard he had his own boot camp in the offseason that he invited all the Bulls players to come to and a number of guys showed up. Butler could be a guy that does so much for this franchise on and off the floor. Regardless of which path you take if this team isn't doing something exciting competing against whoever is at the top in 2 years...you are in trouble for one reason or another. I think right now it's likely Butler stays and another good thing is that he won't get that huge contract that the Bulls could have paid him. You don't have to worry as much about figuring out which of the young guys you are going to prioritize.

When GS added Iggy I thought they didn't need him. They dumped a bunch of salary and paid up in sole first round picks to do it. It turns out Iggy was absolutely what they needed and they may not have won the first championship without him. I was wrong on that one.

With Butler here the Wolves will likely look for some vets to compete now but with a legit top of the league 2 way player like Butler they can also look at some young flyer players they may have been less likely to do with the roster they had before that was so young. They may end up with a young player with DunnMs roster spot that develops into something really useful. That could be a young vet FA, former 2nd rounder D-league player etc. they might actually play Tyus because if you liked how he and Dunn worked together just wait till you see him and Tyus work.

The 3 point shooting is a concern but let's see what they do in FA and how these guys play for like half a season. Between Butler Wiggins Towns and Rubio those guys went to the FT line like over 25 times a game. That's insane and the number could even increase. That's a significant weapon offensively. Butler's ability to create for others is a significant asset for this roster and it's an overlooked part of his game and I was one of the people that didn't realize how good he was.

Future -

I agree with you. I was absolutely devastated on draft night when they made the trade. I was at a party last night and friends were having a good time at my expense seeing I'm the only person in the world outside of Chicago who felt the same what. You've clearly stated the reasons why this may not be the best move for the long term future.

I heard Glen's press conference, I believe he was instrumental in putting pressure on the organization to make this kind of move.
Besides Wig and Kat, our team of bare of talent to put around the big 3 to make deep playoff runs, thats the way I see it anyway.

I was in the minority, but I didn't think the wolves had to make the playoffs this year. I get it's hard to argue getting Butler for what we had to give up. All I know is I'm less excited about the teams future then I was before the trade. Weird I know.

thedoper wrote:If you believe that Dunn and Lavine are better long term assets than Butler there is no convincing you at this point. Winning may help some of the ails you are feeling for a while I hope. Nothing is guaranteed in any business. I like that we gained a surefire player for some of our long term potential, without parting with our two best assets. In our situation it was going to be a chore to keep our core together either way. Winning and making some noise in the playoffs has to be part of developing the momentum to build a complete team. GS made moves around their core long before they became what they were. They acquired Bogut, they signed Iggy. There were naysayers linked to those moves as well I am sure. But I believe this is the sort of tweaking that is necessary for building a great product long term. Thibs doesn't strike me as the kind of person who is going to ignore the risks in this situation, and as you point out they are there. But there were legit risks in relying on the development of Dunn and Lavine. We could have kept them and equally trapped as a 3-8 seed. Or we could have had another year missing the playoffs and started seeing disgruntled young players. On court success is always going to give you more options. We have to stay diligent in scouting, keep angling for young assets to round out the core. Allow yourself a little joy, especially in a sports environment where we have had so little of it for ages.

GS did NOT make moves around their core "long before they became what they were." Look at my "case for patience" thread for the particulars. The Warriors made their big jump from a 23-win lottery team to a 47-win playoff team BEFORE they acquired Iggy. And although they acquired Bogut the summer before their leap to the playoffs, Bogut missed the vast majority of that season with an injury. The difference? The warriors added three key rookies that summer -- Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes. They added only one important vet named Carl Landry, but he wasn't that critical and they didn't give up any young core players to get him. The Thunder made a similar move from 23 wins to 50 wins without adding any significant veterans or trading any of their core young guys. Instead, they added two key rookies that summer -- James Harden and Serge Ibaka. It was those additional plus the continued maturation of Durant and Westbrook that resulted in the Thunder becoming the contender they became. The biggest mistake that franchise make was trading Harden, not knowing at the time that Durant would leave. The Bulls back in the late 80s went from 30 wins to nearly 50 wins with the addition of Pippen and Grant to Jordan in his 3rd season.

There's definitely a case to be made for the Butler trade. But pointing to other organizations is just part of a false narrative. The true narrative of success is that young players struggle for a while, but if you've finally assembled enough of them and they're really talented, they will ultimately succeed with experience. And actually, the experience isn't 5-10 years, but closer to 2-4 years.

Some good points, Future, and I understand your angst given your positive thoughts about LaVine and Dunn. It's easier for me to be 100% on board with this deal because I'm just not a believer in either of the guys we gave up. And you know what? Neither is the national media, and especially neither is the Chicago fan base. To really understand how good Butler is and how luke warm the basketball world outside of Minnesota is about Zach and Dunn, you only have to spend a few minutes reading the RealGM Bulls board...less than 5% support the deal in any way, and over half are climbing out on the ledge. As much as I loved cheering for Zach (how can you not...he seems like a terrific guy and teammate), I have questioned his basketball IQ ever since watching him live at UCLA a few years ago...and I really didn't see much IQ improvement over the past couple years. And I have never been convinced that Dunn will ever approach being even an average offensive NBA player. I have my issues with Thibs the coach to be sure, but I have no issues with Thibs the talent evaluator. And I'm convinced he just didn't think he could effectively coach Zach up, so he had to make a move before having to pay him the big money in a year.

As a season ticket holder hungry for some playoff games, I needed them to do something like this to keep my interest. I agree with others that we would have made the playoffs next season without making this deal, but I truly believe this deal makes us a contender quickly. Adding a superstar in the prime of his career to go along with a facilitator like Rubio and two emerging superstars like KAT and Wig is a dream come true for me. Can we compete with Golden State next year? Of course not...not even the Cavs can, as long as GS stays healthy. But I disagree with you about whether we can compete with SA, Houston and the Cavs...this deal gives us the best Big 3 in the West other than GS, and if Thibs can make some necessary coaching adjustments, I see us challenging the Spurs and Rockets next year...and maybe even making the Western finals. Yes, I said it.

I'm not going to convince you, Future, because we value Zach/Dunn differently...and only time will tell if they ever become very good NBA players. But I invite you to spend some time reading how the national media views them, and taking a deep dive into their numbers. That might make you feel better. As for me, I agree with the pundits...this deal was grand theft larceny.

kekgeek1 wrote:I will try my best....

Whatever we do it was going to be a risk. Not every player shows improvement every single year. A lot of player level off at a point. And if we didn't make the trade we were praying that 4 one way players behind 2 way players (wiggins, towns, lavine: offense and Dunn defense). Also lavine is coming off ACL injury and we don't know what he will be now and he is going to get the near max or max. So 2 of our best players and max players have a negative on/off numbers.

Also what happens if we don't make the playoffs with lavine next year. Do we really want to give lavine the max when we haven't won with this core

Also one thing also in 2019 we have a sneaky possible positive cap situation. Rubio 14 mil, Butler 19 Mil, cole 7 mil and towns 6 mil all come off the books but we have all of there bird rights still. Allowing the wolves to possibly add anther max type player when wiggins is 25, towns 24, Butler 30 and they could cap space.

Geek --- This is probably the best case that can be made for the trade. I have to believe that Thibs carefully assessed all our young guys and concluded that none showed enough signs of developing into two-way players to pass on a move like this. And with LaVine due for his pay-day coming off an ACL injury and not yet showing his two-way potential, there was a significant risk of staying with the status quo.