Wile E Coyote wrote:There has been a lot of discussion on Rubio recently as the Wolves continue to blow leads and lose games they should win. While Rubio has struggled to shoot, I don't think our offensive output is an issue. If we try to look at things objectively, what are the likeliest top 5 reasons the Wolves are struggling?
I will post mine - please post yours too.
1. Defense. The Wolves make many errors and completely fold at times. This is the root cause (IMO) of our frequently blow leads. I would guess that selected portions of the D are improved since the beginning of the season, but the overall effect is the same: long stretches of very little resistance. The Wolves players probably feel like if they "take a quarter off" they can turn it back on. Unfortunately when you let NBA players get comfortable/hot, it is very difficult to cool them off (see CJ last game).
2. No bench. Thibs/Layden clearly did not want to overspend last summer due to concerns about re-signing the "core 3". I thought the players they signed (Cole, Rush, Hill) were decent "value" signings. Unfortunately Thibs doesn't play Cole much and other two at all. Either all three are injured or Thibs miscalculated their fit in his system. Thibs does play Belly and Bazz a bit, but neither honestly have played consistently well enough to merit more minutes. Dunn has shown some flashes but has done little to help us win games. I think Tyus would help on offense but Thibs must be concerned about his D or does not want Dunn to play SG. I suspect if the Wolves had the Kings or Nuggets bench they would be much better.
3. No steadying veterans with a major role. Rubio is the most experienced player in the starting unit, but he is just as prone as the others to miss shots and make risky/panic decisions like forcing passes that aren't there. He also has more trouble exerting his influence since Thibs has taken the ball out of his hand. No steady veterans to come off the bench to play 25-30 either (like Kings/Nuggets). Pek's career ending injuries really stink here since (1) we could use him and (2) he is consuming cap room this year and next.
4. "Paying the cost" of developing our "core 3". In previous years developing young players was the excuse for borderline tanking. This year I think they are truly developing their young players. Towns is getting the ball in the block and is learning how to pass out of a variety of NBA double team situations. Wiggins is learning how to initiate the offense and pass. All three are learning how to play team defense. There is a cost to all this "on-court" education, especially when due to lack of a bench it is tough to sit a guy who is not learning fast enough.
5. Dunn has not performed at the level expected from an older/experienced college player drafted 5th. Preseason we expected him to push for the starting PG spot or at least a 6th man role. He has shown flashes, but in general he is not doing much to help us win. His defensive gifts are currently offset (IMO) by his inability to shoot consistently or pass effectively.
Very good list and analysis Wile. Here are my 2-cents on your points:
#1 - Couldn't agree more, however, I do think there is some relationship to our offense. It seems like when our offense stalls, we let it affect the way we defend, thus we end up with these massive 35-15 type quarters where we get killed on both sides of the ball. But there is simply no question that the defense is our biggest problem right now. We have to buckle down and still get stops when our shots aren't falling.
#2 - I disagree with this. Since Thibs doesn't have one of his top 5 players come off the bench, it's loaded with pure role players. But they've actually been fairly good as a "caretaker" bench because they are solid defensively. They will never shoot us back into a game or overwhelm the other team's bench, but they are solid for what is expected of them. If Thibs had LaVine as a 6th man, for example, I'd expect far more from our bench.
#3 - Don't disagree for the most part, but I actually do think Aldrich has been a steady vet and mostly does what we expected him to do. I am surprised Thibs hasn't tried playing Rush over Bazz for a few games just to see if he can get his shot going and be more of team player. And then there is Tyus Jones. I think we all agree he's looked good in the few short spurts we've seen him, yet Thibs has kept him shelved for a few weeks now.
#4 - I would agree, however, I think our abysmal 2014-15 season was purely development, with Wiggins taking on the #1 scoring role as a young rookie and LaVine as our starting PG. That was truly baptism by fire and us fans paid for it by witnessing one of the worst defenses in NBA history (and a pretty bad offense to boot). Since then, our young guys have started to develop more offensively, but the defense is still lagging badly.
#5 - Agree. His shooting is no better than Rubio at the moment and he is not nearly the play maker. But there are some signs and it's still early for him.
