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Re: Who do you pick at #4?
Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2015 10:19 am
by Brandon BassHole [enjin:8183321]
No-brainer: Kaminsky
JK Muniday, If I recall I think the predraft workouts will be different this year somehow with more scrimmaging?? Not sure about this, but if true I think he will shine because he has had more time to prepare. Considering that Muniday forwent college to get paid to support his family, I think he will be motivated in the NBA to be the best he can be in order to get paid. This will help him succeed. I know Rubio may play the same position but take the best player available and if hes good the wolves could trade him in 3-4 years like Bledsoe/Reggie Jackson and get an established player(s) that could help the team. Or godforbid hes better than Rubio and than just trade Rubio or ride both their contracts out.
Re: Who do you pick at #4?
Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2015 10:20 am
by khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]
AbeVigodaLive wrote:So you're saying the Wolves 2nd most important player may actually be the team's biggest problem in its rebuild?
Oh oh.
It absolutely still could be the case. He's making 14 million a year starting next year so if he misses a bunch of games I don't see how that isn't a big problem moving forward. Ricky is not a sure thing at this point so why are you so surprised it could be a problem moving forward? Or is Pek the only guy who can have a bad contract because he is always injured? People seem to be fine with drafting his replacement even after the good news from his surgery.
Re: Who do you pick at #4?
Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2015 10:24 am
by khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]
AbeVigodaLive wrote:KiwiMatt wrote:Would be just our luck in a three man draft!
I chose Winslow ahead of Muiday because I think he's a better fit. We can't afford to have two PG's who can't shoot. A Wiggins / Winslow wing pairing gives us a couple of nice, young, two ways players to work with. Add Bazz and LeVine and we are looking good at the wing positions going forward.
Even I would be optimistic about that collection of wings...
Wiggins
Winslow
LaVine
Muhammad
The thing I like about it is that it's a fairly diverse group.
So you're fine stacking the wings and splitting up minutes there (only 24 MPG's average available per player on the wing), but God forbid we have 2 PG's needing minutes because Ricky just has to play all of them or why have him at his price point. That makes sense.
Re: Who do you pick at #4?
Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2015 10:24 am
by AbeVigodaLive
Brandon BassHole wrote:No-brainer: Kaminsky
JK Muniday, If I recall I think the predraft workouts will be different this year somehow with more scrimmaging?? Not sure about this, but if true I think he will shine because he has had more time to prepare. Considering that Muniday forwent college to get paid to support his family, I think he will be motivated in the NBA to be the best he can be in order to get paid. This will help him succeed. I know Rubio may play the same position but take the best player available and if hes good the wolves could trade him in 3-4 years like Bledsoe/Reggie Jackson and get an established player(s) that could help the team. Or godforbid hes better than Rubio and than just trade Rubio or ride both their contracts out.
To be fair, Mudiay is already a millionaire. None of the college kids have that bank account... yet.
I think the motivation to make many millions is high with all of them. The goal, however, is to find a guy motivated by more than just the money... the franchise guy who wants to be the best.
Re: Who do you pick at #4?
Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2015 10:26 am
by AbeVigodaLive
khans2k5 wrote:AbeVigodaLive wrote:So you're saying the Wolves 2nd most important player may actually be the team's biggest problem in its rebuild?
Oh oh.
It absolutely still could be the case. He's making 14 million a year starting next year so if he misses a bunch of games I don't see how that isn't a big problem moving forward. Ricky is not a sure thing at this point so why are you so surprised it could be a problem moving forward? Or is Pek the only guy who can have a bad contract because he is always injured? People seem to be fine with drafting his replacement even after the good news from his surgery.
I'm not surprised. I'm acknowledging that if the Wolves are curbing the minutes of a 25 year old right after he becomes the team's most expensive player because they're fearful of his health... the Wolves have some serious issues trying to rebuild.
Re: Who do you pick at #4?
Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2015 10:29 am
by longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]
I am currently on the Winslow train at #4, as it looks like the majority here are so far. Most here are BPA guys, while I am generally a draft for need guy...the Derrick Williams fiasco made me that. Mudiay may be the BPA available at 4, but I just think he is way too much of a wild card for me to select him there. We have only seen video of him against high schoolers and Chinese guys, and frankly, Sebastian Telfair looked better than Mudiay against high school kids. Plus, he was the only guy in this group who missed any significant time last year due to injury, and although there's no evidence of anything chronic here, the Wolves have to be warier of injuries than any other team because of their bad history. In addition, while I know this is a minority position, I expect LaVine to be playing a lot of PG (as well as SG), and I don't want to add a third PG to the mix. Yes, Zach was terrible at PG most of the season, but he wasn't very good at SG most of the season either, and he put up some big stats playing a lot of PG the past month. How about his 13 assists and only 2 TOs last night as an example of what he can do at the point?
So, if I'm a draft for need guy and Towns/Okafor are off the board, why not Porzingis. I really wanted him to be my pick here...7'1" guys with his shooting range are intriguing prospects. But I don't think he really solves our C/PF issue. He hasn't been successful in adding any weight to his frame, and I think he would get totally outmuscled in the NBA. That, combined with his lack of an inside game, makes me think his ceiling is a outside scorer off the bench, and that's not good enough for me at 4.
I was a big Stanley Johnson guy up until the tournament, but his inconsistent play there turned me off, as well as many draft experts. Hezonja is a world-class talent, but also a world-class jerk, and I see no chance of Saunders risking a pick on him. And I'm not convinced WCS will ever be an effective 2-way player.
So, by process of elimination, my choice is Winslow. I don't want this to sound like I'm taking the best of bad choices, because I don't see it that way. Sure, I prefer one of the top 3, but I don't see the next tier to be a huge dropoff...and I see Winslow as the best 2-way player in the tier. His defense and rebounding impressed me all season, and while 13 PPG is not overly impressive, he was part of an offense that included an enormously efficient scorer in Okafor and was seldom a primary option. Other than free throw shooting, I don't see any big weaknesses on offense...good shooting touch, good finisher, excellent on the break, and decent ball handler. Kevin Martin will still be a scoring option for the Wolves next year, but down the line I could get excited about a 3-man guard rotation of Rubio/LaVine/Winslow, and as was stated earlier, a Winslow/Wiggins wing pairing would be formidable defensively.
Re: Who do you pick at #4?
Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2015 10:42 am
by AbeVigodaLive
khans2k5 wrote:AbeVigodaLive wrote:KiwiMatt wrote:Would be just our luck in a three man draft!
I chose Winslow ahead of Muiday because I think he's a better fit. We can't afford to have two PG's who can't shoot. A Wiggins / Winslow wing pairing gives us a couple of nice, young, two ways players to work with. Add Bazz and LeVine and we are looking good at the wing positions going forward.
Even I would be optimistic about that collection of wings...
Wiggins
Winslow
LaVine
Muhammad
The thing I like about it is that it's a fairly diverse group.
So you're fine stacking the wings and splitting up minutes there (only 24 MPG's average available per player on the wing), but God forbid we have 2 PG's needing minutes because Ricky just has to play all of them or why have him at his price point. That makes sense.
1. I don't think Muhammad is in the same tier as Wiggins. Or Winslow. And probably not even LaVine. I don't see Muhammad as a difference maker. He's fine as a scorer off the bench.
2. I'm still not totally sold on LaVine. But I do think his ultimate potential could be as a combo guard off the bench. If that's the case, I see plenty of minutes available for Winslow, Wiggins and LaVine. There's more leeway when you have 3 or even 4 guys to spread among 2 or even 3 positions. And it gives the Wolves 3 guys with some serious high-end potential. All three working out perfectly is unlikely... but if two do... good deal.
3. None of those guys JUST signed a $55M contract as the team's most expensive player. I don't see the value in jumping "all in" and then immediately getting out dripping wet to dip a toe in.
4. Can a guy like Mudiay play off the ball? What happens to his development if Rubio is healthy? Will the minutes be there? Otherwise, I've come around to LaVine getting Rubio's 12 or so bench minutes as a complete change of pace guy and encourage his future as a combo guy off the bench... and it would be a HUGE dichotomy from what Rubio provides which could energize a team in spurts.
Re: Who do you pick at #4?
Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2015 10:44 am
by Brandon BassHole [enjin:8183321]
AbeVigodaLive wrote:khans2k5 wrote:AbeVigodaLive wrote:So you're saying the Wolves 2nd most important player may actually be the team's biggest problem in its rebuild?
Oh oh.
It absolutely still could be the case. He's making 14 million a year starting next year so if he misses a bunch of games I don't see how that isn't a big problem moving forward. Ricky is not a sure thing at this point so why are you so surprised it could be a problem moving forward? Or is Pek the only guy who can have a bad contract because he is always injured? People seem to be fine with drafting his replacement even after the good news from his surgery.
I'm not surprised. I'm acknowledging that if the Wolves are curbing the minutes of a 25 year old right after he becomes the team's most expensive player because they're fearful of his health... the Wolves have some serious issues trying to rebuild.
Does wanting to play under Larry Brown at SMU indicate that he wants to be great? I think wanting to play for him and then decommiting because of his situations is a good sign as well. Ive never seen him in an interview tho, We will learn more about him as we get closer to the draft... Anyways crossing my fingers for the top 2 picks
Re: Who do you pick at #4?
Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2015 10:46 am
by khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]
I think Lavine only played PG this year for the same reason Oladipo played PG last year. It helps develop parts of his game he didn't use much in college so he is a more well rounded 2 than just a scorer in the future. Lavine's best games down the stretch occurred when he was next to Brown. I also think Lavine is just better suited to defend 2's than be on the ball and defending the PnR all game long. We have a PG. I don't get why we want to force Lavine in that backup role when he should be starting in between Ricky and Wiggins.
Re: Who do you pick at #4?
Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2015 10:49 am
by mjs34
Long, you kind of had your cake and ate it too in your explanation of the poll. The wolves have a more likely chance of getting a top three pick than picking fourth. If you are going to take each numbers percentage singularly, then you have to take the wolves chances against each team which means we would be most liklely to get the top pick.
While I like Winslow, I don't like him at #4, and I don't believe he fits any better than Mudiay on this team. I see it as a question of whether you want Zach playing PG or SG. Winslow is a 3 on this team, and maybe a small 4, but I don't see him guarding or driving on NBA SG's. Playing the 3 keeps Wiggins at the 2 and Zach playing more minutes as a PG, whereas Mudiay moves Wiggins to the 3 and opens up a spot for Zach at the 2.
I think Winslow is most likely to find a role similar to Draymond Green, but I am not ready to drop a top 4 pick for that ceiling. I think you take Mudiay with the expectation of moving him after the draft or developing him for a year or two and then moving him.
While a lot of people believe draft picks lose their value once they are used, that is only the case when the players underperform. Does anyone think the wolves couldn't get the top pick by offering up Wiggins?