Minnesota Sports Forum

lipoli390 wrote:Edwards is shooting 40.6% from the field and 28.8% from behind the arc. Those numbers are almost identical to his college stats. Yes, I see the talent. But his early NBA numbers tell us that he remains low-efficiency scorer who doesn't help his team win games. Long way to go, but it's not often that a player becomes something fundamentally different from what he was in college.

Edwards is a 19-year-old rookie uber-athlete who is going to have a long career in the league because he is going to be able to physically dominate opponents...just imagine how dominant he will be at 24. Just for kicks, let's compare him to another former 19-year-old rookie with some promise:

Edwards (7 games): Per 36: 21.4/3.3/2.6
41% FG% 29% 3-point% eFg% 47.4%

Other guy (79 games): Per 36: 19.1/5.0/5.4
42% FG% 29% 3-point% eFG% 43.8%

The data are surprisingly close, and I wouldn't be surprised if the "other guy's" numbers improved over the course of his rookie season. "Other guy" has turned out to be pretty good, some might say very good. Not saying that Edwards is going to become "other guy", and he will never be his equal as a facilitator, but I think there's a very good chance he can easily be as good a scorer and shooter. I'm just saying the NBA is a grown man's league, and for Edwards to adjust to the NBA as quickly as the "other guy" at 19 and already use his superior strength to score inside, is a very good sign. I think that is the purpose of Q's thread here...we all see the holes in Ant's game right now, but his propensity and ability to score inside is a very good sign.

Well, he won't ever be LeBron, but point well taken. He also is currently more efficient than Wall or Westbrook were in their rookie year, but less efficient than Harden, DeRozan, and Jaylen Brown.

Bottom line.....the fact that he carries such a high usage at such a young age suggests that he's a born scorer. He will not have to toil for hours in the gym to turn himself into a 22 PPG type player (like Butler or Kyle Lowry did for example - neither of whom were natural scorers and took years to get to that point).

But he's going to need to get A LOT more efficient. Evidence suggests that most rookies do get more efficient in their 2nd year (look at Josh Okogie as a great example). But the bar for good efficiency is much higher now than it was back when LeBron started his career because of the 3-point shot. Scoring 25PPG on a TS% of .530 or .540 just isn't that big of a deal and doesn't necessarily lead to winning. He's currently at .500, which would be considered quite bad if he wasn't a 19-year old rookie. He's got a LONG ways to go.

Yes, there's no chance Ant becomes LeBron...he will never distribute or rebound like him, and may not become the defender James is. But I find it enormously promising that his scoring, shooting and efficiency at age 19 were better than LBJ's, a guy who was considered NBA ready at 19 and was given almost 40 MPG right out of the gate. And Ant's better eFG% is not because he takes more threes- a 29% 3-point rate doesn't help eFG%. His efficiency is because he converts his 2's at 51% compared to James' 44%. That difference is very significant to me, because it tells me his shot selection and finishing ability are superior to where LeBron was at 19. Ant is only going to bigger, stronger and smarter as he matures, and that 51% 2-point rate could skyrocket (James was over 60% in his prime, and over 55% for his career). He will also learn to draw more fouls as he progresses, and that will help his eFG%. It would not be surprising to me if he wasn't over 60% eFG for his career, and averages more like 29 PPG.

Defense is the big unknown though...

Here's an update:

Name - % of FGA from 0-3 Feet/FG% from that range
Donovan Mitchell - 21%/63%
Devin Booker - 21%/65%
Bradley Beal and DeMar DeRozan- 22%/66%
James Harden - 27%/64%
Anthony Edwards - 31%/51%
Jaylen Brown - 32%/65%
Russell Westbrook - 36%/59%
LeBron James - 36%/73%

He's still doing OK in terms of getting into the paint for a good portion of his shots, but his accuracy has absolutely plummeted, as we've all seen. Tired legs? Luck early on? Scouted better?

With his athleticism and strength, there is absolutely no reason it should be this bad. Again, we know Edwards can take lots of shots, get into the paint, rise up and easily squeeze off a 3. But you gotta actually start making them or "shot creation" is meaningless!

Q12543 wrote:Here's an update:

Name - % of FGA from 0-3 Feet/FG% from that range
Donovan Mitchell - 21%/63%
Devin Booker - 21%/65%
Bradley Beal and DeMar DeRozan- 22%/66%
James Harden - 27%/64%
Anthony Edwards - 31%/51%
Jaylen Brown - 32%/65%
Russell Westbrook - 36%/59%
LeBron James - 36%/73%

He's still doing OK in terms of getting into the paint for a good portion of his shots, but his accuracy has absolutely plummeted, as we've all seen. Tired legs? Luck early on? Scouted better?

With his athleticism and strength, there is absolutely no reason it should be this bad. Again, we know Edwards can take lots of shots, get into the paint, rise up and easily squeeze off a 3. But you gotta actually start making them or "shot creation" is meaningless!

Wow, thanks Q. Very disappointing to say the least.

We're dealing with a small sample size, so I think we should keep that in mind for all stats, good or bad, at this point. Still, I really like the fact that you guys are keeping an eye on these stats at the rim, because I think it will be key for him.

Relative to stats, the eye test is fairly important, although I do think over time, his numbers will start to speak more for him.

In terms of his offense, especially at the rim, since that's what we're talking about here, here are some of my impressions of his scoring after watching all these games so far:

Based on the eye test, there are some things to like about him, obviously. He can clearly create his own shot, and he can score outside and inside. He does seem to be able to get the 3 off just about whenever he wants, and although his handle is still a bit loose and slower than I'd like, he can put the ball on the deck and get to the rim. Those are key skills you need from a lead scorer. He has also shown flashes of explosiveness. And his strength has obviously allowed him to finish with contact, sometimes even showing some deft touch with both hands as a finisher.

But I also see what look like some bad habits he'll need to turn around. The most obvious thing for me is that when he does go to the rack, he often seems to leave his feet about a step earlier than he needs to, and it leaves him having to settle for a layup as his body is already on the way down, which is just a tougher shot to hit. I wonder if part of that isn't that his handle isn't the greatest so he picks it up a step early to avoid the turnover as he drives into traffic. So maybe working on his handle and just speeding up and tightening up his dribble will help him get to a point where he's getting more vertical explosiveness at the basket. I want to see him dunk on some fools way more often.

Just in terms of the way he tries to score at the rim kind of reminds me a bit of Tyreke Evans or James Harden right now (obviously comparing style here, not effectiveness), kind of trying to jump lengthwise and then slip the layup under the defender. Guys like Harden can do that so well, but Edwards clearly doesn't have Harden's touch at finishing right now (and given how great Harden is at it, he probably never will--but he can definitely get better). I think it's a good sign he could develop that part of his game (crafty long jumping layups), but he's just not a good enough finisher at this point to use it so often.

He also seems to have a tendency to try to finish around guys rather than going right through them and drawing the foul. Part of that may also be that his drives tend to come somewhat slow, and he holds the ball too long before putting it on the deck, so defenders can anticipate his drives more easily and just go vertical on him. Think of how many times he's bounced off a defender in the air, but it's not a foul because the defender was able to get into position and just jump straight up. This forces him to try to scoop the layup in around the defender, or toss it up while he's on the way down. He's strong enough he can sometimes still finish, but it would be way better if he just committed to his move quicker (shoot, pass, or drive) when he catches it on the perimeter. That way, when he does drive, defenses will have less time to get into position and he'll be more likely to draw fouls by catching defenders sliding or he'll be able to shoot the layup on the way up or at the peak of his jump, which should be a higher-percentage shot. As athletic as he is, he's not the quickest dude out there, so he needs to make decisions faster.

If he can do those things--make quicker decisions, improve his handle, and try to get to the rack quicker and leave his feet a bit closer to the basket, he should be able to both draw more fouls and get some higher-percentage layups. Oh, and he needs to practice a floater to mix that in just a bit given how often he drives and how much defenses are expecting him to go for the layup.

It's actually kind of impressive he's been able to score as well as he has as an iso scorer because of his bad habits. I don't mind using a hang-dribble now and then, he does have the strength to just methodically back guys down, and I have even seen him pretty cleverly dribble past the pick and get the defender on his back with some patience. Those are all things that great half-court scorers have. But it just feels like he's weirdly not aggressive enough with the way he creates his shots, although he's obviously not shy about taking them!

Last thought: We should be trying to get this guy cutting to the basket without the ball on set plays in which the PG is looking to hit him on the way to the bucket more often. It seems like every time he goes to the rack, it's after he's caught it on the perimeter, and that's when his bad habits start kicking in. Let's find a way to free him up with some picks for backdoor cuts and stuff so he can just concentrate on finishing rather than trying to do it all himself.

Good stuff Drew. Yeah, hard to believe they don't design more plays for him curling off pin down screens and receiving the ball as he turns to go down hill. They do this for Culver to try to manufacture shots for him near the rim, where his length and athleticism is more effective (Culver is hitting 64% of his 0-3 foot shot attempts).

All good points made so far, but we're missing a big one. Edwards needs to be a much bigger threat in transition. That's where he was at his best in college, in my opinion. He scored 1.29 PPP in transition as a freshman at Georgia, which was in the 88th percentile. Through the early goings, his 1.08 PPP in transition in the NBA just isn't it. That's not what he needs to be. With his size, ability, and skill in the open court that number needs to be higher. Edwards is also the kind of player that gets it going when he sees the ball go through the hoop. I'd like to see a more focused effort in getting the ball to Edwards after defensive rebounds and turn him loose. That's a much better strat to me than letting D-Lo and Ricky walk the ball up the court time after time. We're just making the game harder, especially on Edwards, than it needs to be.

Camden wrote:All good points made so far, but we're missing a big one. Edwards needs to be a much bigger threat in transition. That's where he was at his best in college, in my opinion. He scored 1.29 PPP in transition as a freshman at Georgia, which was in the 88th percentile. Through the early goings, his 1.08 PPP in transition in the NBA just isn't it. That's not what he needs to be. With his size, ability, and skill in the open court that number needs to be higher. Edwards is also the kind of player that gets it going when he sees the ball go through the hoop. I'd like to see a more focused effort in getting the ball to Edwards after defensive rebounds and turn him loose. That's a much better strat to me than letting D-Lo and Ricky walk the ball up the court time after time. We're just making the game harder, especially on Edwards, than it needs to be.

There would seem to be a push toward making rookies more comfortable and effective... by putting them in favorable situations as often as possible.

Because of the pandemic, the roster construction, the injury to Towns... we don't seem to be seeing that.

Then again, we've seen promising rookies come into this franchise many times where they were asked to do too much too soon. It comes with being a perennially crappy team, I guess.

Camden wrote:All good points made so far, but we're missing a big one. Edwards needs to be a much bigger threat in transition. That's where he was at his best in college, in my opinion. He scored 1.29 PPP in transition as a freshman at Georgia, which was in the 88th percentile. Through the early goings, his 1.08 PPP in transition in the NBA just isn't it. That's not what he needs to be. With his size, ability, and skill in the open court that number needs to be higher. Edwards is also the kind of player that gets it going when he sees the ball go through the hoop. I'd like to see a more focused effort in getting the ball to Edwards after defensive rebounds and turn him loose. That's a much better strat to me than letting D-Lo and Ricky walk the ball up the court time after time. We're just making the game harder, especially on Edwards, than it needs to be.

Totally agree with you, Cam. It's just mind-boggling that Ryan Saunders hasn't figured that out.