Minnesota Sports Forum

With regards to eFG%, Brewer and Pek are above average for their positions....Love, Martin, and Rubio are below average for their positions. Obviously only considering those that play a decent amount.

We don't really have a reliable outside shooter besides Martin (teams aren't giving Love that open 3 anymore). But our offensive output ranks pretty high. A little help from Bud in that area and some better 2nd team minutes will help our starters play better in the 4th. And yes, our schedule so far has been brutal. Maybe this Mexico City disaster was the long break we needed to get back on track.

lipoli390 wrote:Love, Brewer, Ricky and Barea clearly perform better the more rest they get. Dante, Pek and Martin all perform better or at least as well on no rest as they do with 1-day's rest. That's four one way and three the other. So it's not crystal clear that the amount of rest between games is a key to the Wolves relatively poor showing so far in the West. Bottom line is that the NBA season is a grind. So even if the Wolves' place near the bottom of the West right now stems from too little rest, we can't take any comfort in that. This team has some fundamental shortcomings that may end up relegating the Wolves to another lottery appearance at season's end.

If we end up the lottery. Who are your top 3 in this draft for our team? Would you want Marcus Smart or Randle on this team? Parker and Wiggins look lik the best fits.

lipoli390 wrote:Love, Brewer, Ricky and Barea clearly perform better the more rest they get. Dante, Pek and Martin all perform better or at least as well on no rest as they do with 1-day's rest. That's four one way and three the other. So it's not crystal clear that the amount of rest between games is a key to the Wolves relatively poor showing so far in the West. Bottom line is that the NBA season is a grind. So even if the Wolves' place near the bottom of the West right now stems from too little rest, we can't take any comfort in that. This team has some fundamental shortcomings that may end up relegating the Wolves to another lottery appearance at season's end.

lipoli390 wrote:Love, Brewer, Ricky and Barea clearly perform better the more rest they get. Dante, Pek and Martin all perform better or at least as well on no rest as they do with 1-day's rest. That's four one way and three the other. So it's not crystal clear that the amount of rest between games is a key to the Wolves relatively poor showing so far in the West. Bottom line is that the NBA season is a grind. So even if the Wolves' place near the bottom of the West right now stems from too little rest, we can't take any comfort in that. This team has some fundamental shortcomings that may end up relegating the Wolves to another lottery appearance at season's end.

Take a look at the data again, Lip, and I think you'll see more in there. Yes, you can say that four players are better with rest and three aren't, but that would be oversimplifying matters. 4 players who take a lot of shots improve by double digits in effective shooting percentage with rest and another (Martin) essentially stays the same (50% vs 52%). Only 2 players (Pek and Dante) actually improve in a BTB, and Dante is the lowest volume shooter of those listed. The net effect is that the Wolves have an eFG% of over 50% with rest, and under 44% when they play back to back...a very significant variance. Who knows if this kind of relationship will continue this season, but it certainly has had an impact in our 1-5 record in our BTBs to date.

If the Wolves continue to have an eFG% over 50% in games with rest, the favorable remaining schedule should allow them to make the playoffs, I think.

BizarroJerry wrote:We don't really have a reliable outside shooter besides Martin (teams aren't giving Love that open 3 anymore). But our offensive output ranks pretty high. A little help from Bud in that area and some better 2nd team minutes will help our starters play better in the 4th. And yes, our schedule so far has been brutal. Maybe this Mexico City disaster was the long break we needed to get back on track.

I'm glad you say that Bud will only provide a little help in our outside shooting. Too often he is discussed as a possible savior, but we need to keep in mind that he is only a career 36% 3-point shooter, which is about average in the league. Plus, it will take him awhile to shake off the rust.

BizarroJerry wrote:We don't really have a reliable outside shooter besides Martin (teams aren't giving Love that open 3 anymore). But our offensive output ranks pretty high. A little help from Bud in that area and some better 2nd team minutes will help our starters play better in the 4th. And yes, our schedule so far has been brutal. Maybe this Mexico City disaster was the long break we needed to get back on track.

As I read your post again, BBTT, I think I agree that Bud's return will help us more than I originally thought. Adelman's lack of trust in his bench has caused him to play the starters more minutes than he should, and this has had an impact both in 4th quarters and in BTBs. Now, the addition of MaM and Bud, combined with the return of Turiaf, will allow Rick to give 20 minutes a night to three more guys than he has been previously, and this will go a long way toward keeping our primary scorers fresh.

I'm with Strange on this. The thread began by discussing eFG%. Well, Chase's career eFG% is over 51%. I wasn't able to find eFG%-against to see if he was a liability defensively, but anecdotally, I can't imagine he's worse than K-Mart.

In terms of MIN's first rounder this year, doesn't it go to PHX no matter where it is?
Nevermind, read it on NBA draft dot net.

I agree LST, Bud's exactly what we need right now, a bench shooter. And I'm sure Martin and Pek will miss a stretch of games later, so I think we should be prepared for a season where we'll always have at least 1 contributor who's injured. I know Adelman is reluctant to play the rookies, but they're needed too, just because I don't think we'll ever be 100% healthy.

Well, this game against Miami showed this eFG% issue to its extreme.

We took 4 more shots and 20 more (!) free throws, yet got our asses handed to us. We win by double digits if we simply push on eFG%.