Minnesota Sports Forum

Excellent thread, guys, analyzing this squad's biggest weakness...with some hope from markkbu based on recent performance. Keep in mind that those last 5 and last 10 game stats include the infamous 5 point disaster, so in no way can this be construed as stat cherry picking.

I have to agree with sjm's caution about Bud. I have been saying all along that Turiaf's return is much more critical than Bud's, because with the devastation to his knee the past year and a half, I just don't think Bud will be ready to contribute much this year (if ever). His game depends on athleticism, both inside and on his jump shot, and I just don't think he will be comfortable with his jumper for a long time. Push away from the dinner table before you read this next line...I don't think we should expect Bud to shoot any better than Corey the rest of this year. A three point jump shot is a very precise thing, and he just isn't going to have the lift and comfort level to duplicate his career average of 35.8 %. That said, Bud is a solid NBA reserve and will help our depth, just not to the extent some are hoping for. But please, let's not consider him as a starter. He was an average defender and shooter when he was healthy and not rusty, and we should expect less than that the rest of the season.

I also really like Cam's suggestion of starting LRMaM, and letting Corey and Bud contribute off the bench. Our early defense has been a problem, and I like the idea of starting out the game with our best defender on their best scorer. And even though neither is an offensive juggernaut, both Corey and Bud will contribute more to our bench scoring than Luc.

longstrangetrip wrote:

I also really like Cam's suggestion of starting LRMaM, and letting Corey and Bud contribute off the bench. Our early defense has been a problem, and I like the idea of starting out the game with our best defender on their best scorer. And even though neither is an offensive juggernaut, both Corey and Bud will contribute more to our bench scoring than Luc.

I like this suggestion as well. I like the starting 5 we have, but we all agree that we have to get more production from the bench. Brewer would thrive in a energy bench role like he had with denver. Barea, brewer, dante, turiaf and chase/shved would create chaos and they are players who can thrive in chaos.

Mbah a moute in the starting lineup also forces rubio to be more of a scorer. Instead of being the last option, he would be the 4th as mbah a moute wont be looking to jack up shots like brew has. We need rubio to improve his offense for us to be serious playoff threat. This setup is something worth exploring.

Q12543 wrote:Lots of chatter about potential trades and free agent pick-ups to help improve our bench, and understandably so. However, I think it's probably too late to do anything at this point, especially since we already used up the Derrick Williams bullet (which I supported, but honestly, has been neutral at best so far...Hoping Mbah Moute pays more dividends as the season progresses). That means the moves that might be available either keeps us mostly in neutral (e.g. Barea for Andre Miller) or is a science experiment (e.g. Turkoglu, Arenas, etc.). At this point, Adelman probably prefers dealing with the devil he knows, not to mention the fact he is going to be slowly integrating Budinger and Turiaf back into the rotation soon.

I'm hoping that the addition of Bud and Turiaf, combined with some honest-to-goodness legitimate practice reps with this homestand, that our second unit will improve from horrible to average-ish. Do I think it's enough to suddenly surge into the upper echelon of the West? Heck no. But I do think we have the talent to displace Dallas from the 8th seed. That's at least 45+ wins this year, which is simply a massive improvement from anything we've seen around these parts in around a decade.

Playing off of q's prediction that we will eventually pass up Dallas to get the 8th seed, I don't disagree that we will move past Dallas. But I think Phoenix is the team in the top 8 that will falter first. Their loss at home to a not very good Memphis team is just one game, I know, but it's still a bad loss that might signal their return to earth. This squad is playing way over their heads and will finish the season around .500.

longstrangetrip wrote:

Q12543 wrote:Lots of chatter about potential trades and free agent pick-ups to help improve our bench, and understandably so. However, I think it's probably too late to do anything at this point, especially since we already used up the Derrick Williams bullet (which I supported, but honestly, has been neutral at best so far...Hoping Mbah Moute pays more dividends as the season progresses). That means the moves that might be available either keeps us mostly in neutral (e.g. Barea for Andre Miller) or is a science experiment (e.g. Turkoglu, Arenas, etc.). At this point, Adelman probably prefers dealing with the devil he knows, not to mention the fact he is going to be slowly integrating Budinger and Turiaf back into the rotation soon.

I'm hoping that the addition of Bud and Turiaf, combined with some honest-to-goodness legitimate practice reps with this homestand, that our second unit will improve from horrible to average-ish. Do I think it's enough to suddenly surge into the upper echelon of the West? Heck no. But I do think we have the talent to displace Dallas from the 8th seed. That's at least 45+ wins this year, which is simply a massive improvement from anything we've seen around these parts in around a decade.

Playing off of q's prediction that we will eventually pass up Dallas to get the 8th seed, I don't disagree that we will move past Dallas. But I think Phoenix is the team in the top 8 that will falter first. Their loss at home to a not very good Memphis team is just one game, I know, but it's still a bad loss that might signal their return to earth. This squad is playing way over their heads and will finish the season around .500.

I see us jumping both Dallas and Phoenix, so I think we're in agreement. The question I wonder is if we have the horses to catch Golden State/Houston. I don't see why we can't as long as things stay on track. It will certainly take better bench play and healthy Bud/Turiaf though.

Phoenix has played way above talent level all year and it's been frustrating to know they're ahead of us. Hopefully they catch Denver Nuggets syndrome and drop seven straight or whatever it was. I didn't expect Portland to be as successful as they are and I sure as hell didn't expect Phoenix to even be competitive.

Q12543 wrote:Where Adelman may start changing things up is how he ends games. I could see a lot more situational substitution patterns and matchups that potentially have Brewer sitting out at the end of games and Budinger out there with the rest of the starters.

If only Adelman did this in a meaningful way, his substitutions are sub-par at best. If he would have done offense for defense substitutions in the LAC game we would have won.

Trade for Steve Novak? Thoughts? Even if we were to get 15 minutes a game from him just for his shooting. Terrible defender. Not a good rebounder for his size. He can shoot the basketball, though.

EDIT: He makes 3.7M-ish for the next couple years. Nevermind.

I am very cautious about any stat of the bench improving. I think their statistical improvement is 100% coincidental with the improvement of Love and Pekovic's numbers since they never play without one of those guys on the floor. The only bench player with any real impact (good or bad) on the floor continues to be JJ. If Pek or Love take any sort of dip we are back to square 1. Our bench is still horrible except for the fact that Love and Pek lift their play. They are still the Worst FG%, 3rd worst 3pt %, 3rd worst in offensive efficiency, and worst defensive efficiency despite the supposedly amazing defensive play of MBAM. I will say that Shved does look more aggressive. But that is going from horrible to kind of horrible. I think they will have to go more than 10 games of kind of horrible before I am behind this supposed improvement.

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/teamstats/14/7/pts/1-1

thedoper wrote:I am very cautious about any stat of the bench improving. I think their statistical improvement is 100% coincidental with the improvement of Love and Pekovic's numbers since they never play without one of those guys on the floor. The only bench player with any real impact (good or bad) on the floor continues to be JJ. If Pek or Love take any sort of dip we are back to square 1. Our bench is still horrible except for the fact that Love and Pek lift their play. They are still the Worst FG%, 3rd worst 3pt %, 3rd worst in offensive efficiency, and worst defensive efficiency despite the supposedly amazing defensive play of MBAM. I will say that Shved does look more aggressive. But that is going from horrible to kind of horrible. I think they will have to go more than 10 games of kind of horrible before I am behind this supposed improvement.

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/teamstats/14/7/pts/1-1

That is where I got my #s from too.

Interesting that you look at FG%, 3pt%, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency for the year. Those are excellent examples that very effectively make the original point. Look at were we are over the last 10 games and the last 5 games (it is really easy to do) versus where were are for the year.

Here they are for the people that don't want to spend the time.

...............Year Stats...........Last 10 games........................Last 5 games
FG%..........30th........................17th.....................................12th
3pt%..........27th.........................3rd......................................10th
Off Eff.........27th........................21st.....................................24th
Def Eff........30th........................25th.....................................20th


Significant improvement in every area.....very good to see.

Again, for suggestions as to why these improvements are occurring, I would reference my original post.

I am glad it causes you optimism. I am more cautious in the impact of 10 game stat chunks and don't believe is says much of anything about our bench players in isolation yet since those 10 games had Love and Pek on a tear which makes the game easier on everyone. I do hope they are on the right track. I just wish we didn't have to ride Love and Pek so hard to get them there.

Anything we could offer to the Bucks for OJ Mayo? We all know Flip had interest in him pre-season. Would be just what the doctor ordered for our second unit. Guy that can go off at any moment and shoots the three ball well. He hasn't panned out to be what the Bucks wanted as he's an inconsistent starter.

Contract is dicey, but trade machine says we could go Shabazz, Shved and Price (contract filler) to the Bucks for Mayo. Think OJ's a guy that plays better with better players around him. Bucks need to stockpile young talent when they can. Think they'd like to get a first rounder for him, but his value right now doesn't warrant that at all.

Am I being too unrealistic? Not saying it's a sure bet that they'd accept, but I don't feel like I'm killing the Bucks in that trade.