Minnesota Sports Forum

Yeah, a lot of us expressed dismay at Corey's ballooning usage rate while in Denver. Having a career inefficient shooter take lots of shots is not a good strategy. That's why inserting him into the starting lineup with the Wolves made a ton of sense.

I think the problem is that Pekovic is not a shot creator. He has zero turnaround jumper or face-up game. So if he gets the ball anywhere outside of 8-10 feet from the basket, he won't even attempt a shot. He gets his offense through offensive rebounds, sealing off his guy early in transition, or designed "duck-ins" in the offense, where a lot needs to go right for him to get the ball in the ideal spot. He is not a good isolation post-up player, although I do agree that we should just dump it into him down there anyway and try to get him more touches. They should also run more pick and roll action with him and Rubio, as that's the other way he seems to score effectively.

As for Rubio's shooting, I do think it's too late for him to ever be a truly good shooter or scorer. But he's so damn good at everything else, that simply being "adequate" would suffice. He seems to be making strides with his 3-point shot, but otherwise....not so much. I agree with others that patience is required. I think he'll eventually get there.

Good post, Cam. I share your belief that this is a point guard driven league, and that we need to see improvement from Ricky in order to become an elite team. But that is both a problem and a huge source of optimism for me, because I believe there is still a lot of upside in Ricky. We know who the other four starters are, and they're very good in their roles...but I don't see any upside in Love, Martin, Brewer and Pek. But we are currently 7-5 with some good wins, and we have a point guard who realistically does not rank in the top 15 PGs. Please understand that Ricky may be my favorite player...I love his competitive fire, defensive intensity, elite vision and offensive flash. But it's fairly easy to name 15 point guards who are operating more effectively than him. Certainly offensively...Hollinger's PER is mostly an offensive measure, and he currently ranks 28th among point guards, right behind JJ. His defense moves him up the list considerably, but not enough to get him in the top 15 in my opinion.

Having said that, I think Ricky easily can move into the top 5, and he can do it rather rapidly. I think Adelman recognizes this too, and that is why he keeps Ricky on such a short leash (see Cavs and Wizard games). The blueprint for Ricky moving up the ladder is fairly simple:

1) Dial back the flash a little, and dial up the effectiveness. I have commented elsewhere on Ricky's two flashy turnovers last night, and I think those were the reason for getting the early hook last night. The Wizard announcers were all over this, and pointed out the obvious. Ricky passed up the chance for a couple easy assists in order to show off with a couple behind the backers. When it works, it's fun to watch...but Ricky has to learn when a flashy pass is not necessary. He is young and has excellent coaches who demand more from him, so I think moments like last night are an excellent learning experience from him. I expect his assist to turnover ratio will improve dramatically as he matures and learns.

2) Ricky is limited in how he is able to score, but he can be very effective in three areas: wide-open 3-point set shots, getting to the rim on PnR's, and free throws. He needs to limit his scoring options to these three aspects, and put the mid-range jumper back in the holster (unless he knows the magic from last summer's tournament has returned). If he does this, I can see his woeful .457 TS% increasing 10 percentage points, which would be a huge boost for this team.

Granted, most of Ricky's national popularity comes from his flashy passing, but I think it also holds him back. His court vision is extraordinary, as his ability to thread passes into seemingly impossible areas. But he will be much more successful when he learns that every assist doesn't have to appear on SportsCenter. I think he can dramatically improve his assist to turnover ratio and his TS%, and quickly become a top 5 PG. If he does this, I think we become an elite team. But if he continues to perform at the level he is currently at, we are a team battling for a playoff spot.

I recognize that there is more to player evaluation than TS%, but these numbers show where the upside is for this team:

Love: 61%
Martin: 57
Hummel: 57
Pek 56
Brewer 55
Barea 49
Rubio 46
Cunningham 45


Cunningham's low number reflects the inefficiency of the mid-range jumper (his entire offensive game). Ricky's number reflects huge upside for a marvelously talented player.

Dante's TS also highlights the fact that he doesn't play physical. TS% is a great stat for people who get to the line as well. Overall I think we are still too early in the season to get nitpicky about stats with Rubio. He has had some great scoring games where he was totally in control this year and some total clankers. I think the main thing for him is to play in control as you are suggesting. If he can just consistently finish at the rim when he has his opportunities I will take the missed jumpers.

Honestly, Ricky needs to sac up and go to the rim like a man. He is one of the biggest PG's in the league and yet every time he goes to the bucket he tries to draw the foul by exaggerating the contact instead of using his size advantage to go up strong at the hoop. If JJ taught him how to use his body to create the space needed to shoot at the rim, Ricky could be passable on the offensive end because that is essentially all Rondo does with a few midrange jumpers and Rondo is considered an all-star PG. Ricky goes to the hoop like he goes around screens (or should I say doesn't go around screens because he's not tough enough to fight around screens). He needs to stop trying to draw the contact and go for the bucket first and then the refs will call the contact.

They've stopped calling the contact for him because they know he is acting every time he goes to the rim. Some of these guys just need to go to the hoop hard and the rest will fall into place. They seem to think the exaggerations are going to help them, but it actually makes it worse because the refs watch tape of the players too and begin to not call things because players are calling out for fouls instead of just trying to earn them. He's 6'4, lanky and witty. He shouldn't have any problems scoring at the rim when guys like JJ are able to make their livings in the paint because they know how to create space and get open even against some of the biggest players in the league.

Khans, I agree 100%, Rubio needs to get to the rim with conviction. And he hasn't been doing it much.

Hicks123 wrote:Hey Lip,

Not criticizing, but curious if you really think Ricky becomes a better shooter. He has been a pro for going on what, 7 years? Is there a comparable player that has played professional ball as long as Rubio that all of the sudden found his shooting/scoring touch?

My personal feeling is (and has been) that we have a poor man's Rondo in Rubio. They have similar strengths in their defensive and playmaking ability, but Rondo clearly figured out very quickly how to score efficiently. For a guy that can't buy a bucket from the outside, it is AMAZING that Rondo still shoots over 48% for his career.

I look at Rubio as a near-finished product. I like him as a player, but I would argue that in no way, shape or form is he a max or even near-max guy at this point. He is in that $8-9M per range with his skillset.

And yeah, Brewer has played well above his head to date. I was skeptical of this signing at the amount we paid, but even if his shooting falls off a bit, he is a sound addition to this team.

Hicks --

I agree with you completely that Rubio is not a max player right now. He's a great defender, a great playmaker and a crowd-pleaser who makes his team better and puts fans in seats. Those qualities make him very valuable to any franchise and command a big contract. I'd put his value in the $9-11 million per year range, but you and I essentially agree he's definitely not a max guy.

Obviously, if Ricky becomes a decent shooter, then we can start talking max contract for him. Your question was whether I really think he can become a better shooter. My answer is yes, but I'm not going to say I'm absolutely certain. I'm fairly optimistic he'll improve, but I have reservations based on the points you made. I disagree with your Rondo comparison. Rondo is smaller, quicker and more athletic that Ricky. And yes, he's a much more efficient scorer than Ricky. As I've posted before, the much better comparison is Jason Kidd -- another playmaking, defensive-oriented, rebounding PG with nice length who initially couldn't shoot his way out of a paper bag. Their shooting stats at the same early point in their respective careers are very similar.

I know that Ricky has been playing professionally for a number of years in Europe before coming here. But he was never expected or called upon to shoot. Therefore, he never developed his shot. Roles are even more strictly confined in Euro basketball and Ricky's role on the offensive end was strictly playmaking. Furthermore, given the lower level of Euro ball compared to the NBA, he never had to shoot to be a top PG in that League. Like Ricky, Jason Kidd played throughout his youth, including college, without being called upon to shoot much. Hence, he never worked on developing his shot the way most players do.

There is no reason Ricky can't improve his shooting at least as much as Jason Kidd improved his own shooting. Like Jason Kidd, Ricky's tremendous passing skills depend on great hand-eye coordination, great depth perception and excellent body control. Those basic abilities should also make Ricky at least a decent shooter if he works at it. Remember that his knee injury robbed him of almost half his rookie season and took away an entire off-season during which he was unable to work much on his shot. By working on his shot the rest of this season and next off-season, I think we'll see much better shooting efficiency from Ricky next season. If so, then he'll be a Jason Kidd type PG who will command a max contract.. If not, then we'll have a very good PG who will be worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $9-11 million per year. I'd prefer the former, but the latter wouldn't be bad either. The question in either case is whether he'll re-sign here.

Ultimately, my main point is that Ricky is the least of this team's concerns going forward. We have a huge depth issues and no rim protectors in our starting line up. Our starting SF is a terrible shooter who has typically been a bench player throughout his career. We have no one other than JJ who can break down defenders off the dribble and create his own shot going to the hold. Except for Ricky and Brewer, we lack top defenders. Martin is good, but he'll have clunkers like last night and he's already 30 years old. Those are bigger problems than whether Ricky's shot improves enough to become a great rather than very good PG.

All that said, I sure hope Ricky improves his shot because it would definitely help a lot.

In order to believe Rubio will improve as a shooter you have to start seeing more arch on his shot and an ability to put it up faster.. Ive seen neither, Along with being flat his outside shot is borderline a set shot. When he dribble drives to the basket and has to settle for a spot up jumper hes always sliding left or right while he's releasing it. Thats terribly ineffective. If an NBA player has to be wide open with time to get his shot off after 7years of pro ball Im afraid that will never be a part of his game.

Additionally hes been pretty sloppy with his passes the last couple games. I know he cant shoot , it bothers me more that he still tries to get cute with his passes. He still gets in the air with full intention of passing the ball. Thats a no no.

Ricky needs more athletes around him to reach his full potential as a passer, Aside from Brewer everyone on this team plays with their feet firmly planted on the court.. Do you ever see back door alley oops or Ricky driving and putting the ball up to the rim for a big to slam home? Never.

Good player? Absolutely. But hes got as many warts as he does positives. Not close to a max player.

By the way Camden, you still think teams wont be able to make adjustments to that outlet pass? :)

Is Rubio another Jason Williams on offense?

Honestly at this point your doing Williams a disservice. While both shot a terrible percentage Jason could create his own shot and could get hot . On any given nite Jason could light it up from three and get 25-30. Like Rubio he was a creative passer and at times a sloppy one. Rubio is a better defender ten fold.