Will the Blazers regret taking CJ McColllum?

[TeamRicky [enjin:6648771]]

I think Portland made a good pick. He should fit in well there. The more obvious question is whether the Wolves will regret not taking McCollum and right now, I'd say yes.

[m4gor [enjin:6667447]]

well i dont think they will regret picking him as they need some guard depth, but Terry comparison? Well one thing what allowed Jason Terry to be effective NBA player was his lateral quickness and 1 on 1 defense, he won NCAA and i dont remember anyone repeatedly beating him off dribble, definitely not in college level, i will have to watch CJ play defense vs NBA players before i buy this comparison ..

there are multiple guys in draft with PG size and not really PG skillset like every year and they rarely turn into something, i would expect him to be nice depth player with some very nice sparks sometimes, but i wish him better ofc as he is nice guy, but still i wouldnt like to draft him as wolves GM with like 5 PGs already on roster :-D

[TravisT [enjin:6669699]]

I understand why people would be upset with us not taking CJ, but last I checked he views himself more as a 1 vs. a 2. He'd be a great option off the bench in a spark plug role, but he would not start as long as Ricky is healthy. I'll try to remain positive and trust Flip and his basketball instincts. He's been around so many NBA players that I'd think his evaluation of talent should be pretty sound.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I understand why people would be upset with us not taking CJ, but last I checked he views himself more as a 1 vs. a 2. He'd be a great option off the bench in a spark plug role, but he would not start as long as Ricky is healthy. I'll try to remain positive and trust Flip and his basketball instincts. He's been around so many NBA players that I'd think his evaluation of talent should be pretty sound.

Travis, Therein lies the problem with Flip and many other GM/personnel evaluators like him. They think that being "around the game" is somehow good enough. Every damn other franchise has plenty of other "been around the game" types. What makes his eye for talent any better? It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that we needed shooters and that guys like Kevin Martin, JJ Redick, and Chase Budinger were decent targets to go after. I'll give him credit for closing the deal on Martin and Bud, but let's face it, Adelman and Rubio had more to do with wooing those guys than Flip.

What separates the really good GMs from the mediocre ones are #1) the draft and #2) knowing the right value to place on talent. Flip hasn't given any indication that he has a strong grasp of the advanced analytical concepts and statistical tools that increasingly are being used by the more progressive teams to help nail these two key areas of building a franchise. So we're left with gut instinct and eye tests. There is absolutely no edge with that method. Anyone with an NBA coaching resume and a few laps around the league can do that.

I like Flip. He seems like a decent guy and is certainly more personable and authentic than David Kahn. But as a President/GM, he's simply another recycled NBA guy with a connection to Minnesota that feels comfortable to his boss, Glen Taylor.

Let's see what he does when it comes to hiring a GM. Does he stick with the "comfortable pair of slippers" approach, or does he actually think outside of the box and go get someone with leading edge skills in assessing and valuing talent with methods that are perhaps beyond his grasp? That's what good leaders do. They go hire folks that complement themselves and can eventually succeed them in their own role.

[Lipoli390]

Great post, Q! I remember Flip talking about "analytics" in his initial press conference and an interview afterwards. He said he likes analytics, but mainly to confirm assessments made through the "eye test." Since then, he's been true to his word -- in a remarkably unsophisticated and destructive way. What I mean is that he doesn't seem to use analytical tools to objectively test his gut. Instead he appears to use statistics selectively to support his gut conclusions. For example, he went deep into efficiency stats when justifying his decision to sign Martin, but ignored efficiency and invoked more superficial metrics when justifying his decision to draft Shabazz. He talks about position being unimportant at our two wing positions and that it's "who you can guard." Yet he hasn't explained how Brewer or Martin at under 200 pounds can guard SFs.

Nevertheless, Flip's eye for talent may have have served him well with Dieng. And I like that Flip dug deep and looked at the stat showing Dieng as the #1 college player in altering shots. So although I've reached the same preliminary conclusion as you about Flip, the jury is still out.

[markkbu [enjin:6588958]]

Q and Lip. I think that you guys are missing the point behind what Flip is doing. His objective is very simple, atleast it seems that way to me.

He is just doing very simple, low risk moves that will make the Wolves better. He is staying away from what he sees as "risky moves". Examples, of removing risk of failure for the Wolves.


[list]
[*] Letting AK go. AK missed on average about 20 games each year and his production always drops in the second half of the season, and then drops further in the playoffs, so when it comes to "veterans" AK is not the type of veterans that you want on a team.
[/list]


[list]
[*] Bringing in massive amounts of depth. Flip knows that a bunch our starters are out frequently. Right now our second team would beat teams that we fielded last year.
[/list]


[list]
[*] He is signing players that provide a specific skill set that fits the teams leaders;
[/list]


[indent] [list]
[*] we needed 3pt shooters, so he signed Martin and Bud. And he is looking at a number of other 3pt shooters in the summer league. Right now the Wolves summer league team is shooting 50% from behind the 3pt line. Take a second and reread that last sentence. They are 28 of 56 from behind the arc in three games. He is specifically looking for more shooters (maybe not to make the roster right now, but incase of injury)
[/list][/indent]

[indent] [list]
[*] Ricky plays well with slashers also and guys that can run the court well. So he didn't trade D-Will, picked up Brewer (who runs the court like a madman) and Bud. I think that Chirs J fits here too.
[/list][/indent]

[indent] [list]
[*] We were small last year, so he added size.
[/list][/indent]

[indent] [list]
[*] We had a PG heavy roster, the roster is much more even now.
[/list][/indent]

[indent] [list]
[*] Added veteran players that played for some very good teams, so they are used to winning more than losing.
[/list][/indent]

His draft picks were low risk. Steamer sucked last year, so he wanted a backup C that could board well and can block some shots. He got it. He didn't see starting level talent at the #9 pick, so he used that pick to get cheaper backups at C and SG.

I don't think that Flip is trying to make genius moves here. He is trying to make very common sense moves that move the needle forward. He clearly has. Right now we have competent starter at each position. At least 1 NBA worthy backup at each position. Some young guys with good potential. Some vets that are used to winning. We have slashers, we have 3pt shooters. And we have some depth.

Last year, frequently, we were putting terrible teams on the court. This year, there is almost no chance that were are going to field teams that are nearly as terrible.

Flip's intent is not to swing for the fences with any move, in fact, he is staying away from even trying. He is instead he is making a number of base hits that won't blow up in our faces.

Obviously I think that his "big picture" works. I believe that onnce we have a decent team, then he starts to make riskier moves.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Agreed with markkbu

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

http://m.basketball.realgm.com/article/233388/c-j-mccollum-how-the-bpa-rule-fails-outside-the-top-5

I've been cheering for McCollum because he seems like a good guy and it's fun to see a guy from a second tier conference make it in the NBA. But I also have been a CJ detractor and didn't think he was a good choice at all at #9...still happy Flip passed on CJ and turned #9 into 14 and 21 (Shabazz and Dieng). To answer this threads headline...yes, I think the Blazers really regret drafting him at 9. Flip passed on a guy who was successful in the Patriot League, and instead picked two players who had been successful against players more likely to play in the NBA.

With my natural bias against CJ's chances in the NBA, it's easy to see why I was nodding in agreement as I read the attached article. CJ got off to a decent start with the Blazers, but has had a difficult time getting off the bench in the second half of the season and the playoffs. The main issue, as brought out in this article, is his inability to guard anybody at the NBA level...not quick enough to guard PGs and not long or quick enough to guard SGs. His defensive deficiencies really became apparent in the second half of the season as opponents began to target him, and Stotts had no choice but to bench him. Frankly, his modest offensive skills just aren't strong enough to justify his porous defense.

The main point of the article, though, is the inadvisability of drafting BPA after you get past the elite players. This topic has been debated on this board with good points on both sides, but I come down strongly on the side of drafting for need (unless a superstar is available with your pick). I think Flip understands this too, and will find a way to land a very good SG in this year's draft.

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

http://m.basketball.realgm.com/article/233388/c-j-mccollum-how-the-bpa-rule-fails-outside-the-top-5

I've been cheering for McCollum because he seems like a good guy and it's fun to see a guy from a second tier conference make it in the NBA. But I also have been a CJ detractor and didn't think he was a good choice at all at #9...still happy Flip passed on CJ and turned #9 into 14 and 21 (Shabazz and Dieng). To answer this threads headline...yes, I think the Blazers really regret drafting him at 9. Flip passed on a guy who was successful in the Patriot League, and instead picked two players who had been successful against players more likely to play in the NBA.

With my natural bias against CJ's chances in the NBA, it's easy to see why I was nodding in agreement as I read the attached article. CJ got off to a decent start with the Blazers, but has had a difficult time getting off the bench in the second half of the season and the playoffs. The main issue, as brought out in this article, is his inability to guard anybody at the NBA level...not quick enough to guard PGs and not long or quick enough to guard SGs. His defensive deficiencies really became apparent in the second half of the season as opponents began to target him, and Stotts had no choice but to bench him. Frankly, his modest offensive skills just aren't strong enough to justify his porous defense.

The main point of the article, though, is the inadvisability of drafting BPA after you get past the elite players. This topic has been debated on this board with good points on both sides, but I come down strongly on the side of drafting for need (unless a superstar is available with your pick). I think Flip understands this too, and will find a way to land a very good SG in this year's draft.

Good read, LST. Yeah, many people on here loved McCollum, but I still think it's too early to evaluate him. They still don't have a good bench and the writer points out how even Lillard has been ineffective against Parker in this series.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

http://m.basketball.realgm.com/article/233388/c-j-mccollum-how-the-bpa-rule-fails-outside-the-top-5

I've been cheering for McCollum because he seems like a good guy and it's fun to see a guy from a second tier conference make it in the NBA. But I also have been a CJ detractor and didn't think he was a good choice at all at #9...still happy Flip passed on CJ and turned #9 into 14 and 21 (Shabazz and Dieng). To answer this threads headline...yes, I think the Blazers really regret drafting him at 9. Flip passed on a guy who was successful in the Patriot League, and instead picked two players who had been successful against players more likely to play in the NBA.

With my natural bias against CJ's chances in the NBA, it's easy to see why I was nodding in agreement as I read the attached article. CJ got off to a decent start with the Blazers, but has had a difficult time getting off the bench in the second half of the season and the playoffs. The main issue, as brought out in this article, is his inability to guard anybody at the NBA level...not quick enough to guard PGs and not long or quick enough to guard SGs. His defensive deficiencies really became apparent in the second half of the season as opponents began to target him, and Stotts had no choice but to bench him. Frankly, his modest offensive skills just aren't strong enough to justify his porous defense.

The main point of the article, though, is the inadvisability of drafting BPA after you get past the elite players. This topic has been debated on this board with good points on both sides, but I come down strongly on the side of drafting for need (unless a superstar is available with your pick). I think Flip understands this too, and will find a way to land a very good SG in this year's draft.

Good read, LST. Yeah, many people on here loved McCollum, but I still think it's too early to evaluate him. They still don't have a good bench and the writer points out how even Lillard has been ineffective against Parker in this series.

Yep, I agree that it's way too early for any final draft conclusions...takes three years in most cases. To some extent CJ might be a Stotts victim just like Shabazz was an Adelman victim...two coaches unwilling to look past rookie weaknesses. I still think CJ has little chance of becoming an adequate NBA defender, but he may become a guy that can provide some scoring off the bench.