Minnesota Sports Forum

all_day_88 wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:All day, I actually gave up a couple weeks ago. But the Wolves great road trip led me to review the remaining schedules for the 5 teams battling for the last three spots, and I was surprised at how brutal the rest of the season is for Phoenix and Memphis. Both of them are going to have to overachieve to play .500 ball, which means the Wolves have to go 15-7 to tie them. I know that sounds like a tall order, but our easy schedule makes it seem possible. This one's not over. I still think we are most likely to finish 10th, but only by a game or two.

Take 10 minutes and evaluate how Phoenix, Memphis and the Wolves should do in their final games. We're not going to catch Dallas or Golden State, but I think you'll quickly see that the other three teams are in a close race.

I just looked at their schedules and I don't see them struggling to play .500 ball I think that's more wishful thinking than anything. Even if they play.500ish ball and go say 11-10 we would have to go 16-5 and I don't think we win more than 14 at most the rest of the way

longstrangetrip wrote:

all_day_88 wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:All day, I actually gave up a couple weeks ago. But the Wolves great road trip led me to review the remaining schedules for the 5 teams battling for the last three spots, and I was surprised at how brutal the rest of the season is for Phoenix and Memphis. Both of them are going to have to overachieve to play .500 ball, which means the Wolves have to go 15-7 to tie them. I know that sounds like a tall order, but our easy schedule makes it seem possible. This one's not over. I still think we are most likely to finish 10th, but only by a game or two.

Take 10 minutes and evaluate how Phoenix, Memphis and the Wolves should do in their final games. We're not going to catch Dallas or Golden State, but I think you'll quickly see that the other three teams are in a close race.

I just looked at their schedules and I don't see them struggling to play .500 ball I think that's more wishful thinking than anything. Even if they play.500ish ball and go say 11-10 we would have to go 16-5 and I don't think we win more than 14 at most the rest of the way

Yeah, it's gonna be tough, because I agree that I don't see the Wolves winning more than 14 games either. But I don't see my projections as wishful thinking, because I'm using exactly the same model for all three teams. It's just that their schedules are much more difficult than ours. It's going to be up to Phoenix and Memphis to fold down the stretch. If Phoenix can play .500 ball the rest of the way, they deserve to make the playoffs. They have 14 road games and only 7 home games, and included are tough games against the Spurs, Memphis, Dallas, Portland, Golden State, us at home, and the Clippers twice. And most of the East teams they are playing are hot right now (Toronto 8-2, Washington 7-3, Nets 6-4). Hats off to them if they can survive what they have left.

all_day_88 wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:

all_day_88 wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:All day, I actually gave up a couple weeks ago. But the Wolves great road trip led me to review the remaining schedules for the 5 teams battling for the last three spots, and I was surprised at how brutal the rest of the season is for Phoenix and Memphis. Both of them are going to have to overachieve to play .500 ball, which means the Wolves have to go 15-7 to tie them. I know that sounds like a tall order, but our easy schedule makes it seem possible. This one's not over. I still think we are most likely to finish 10th, but only by a game or two.

Take 10 minutes and evaluate how Phoenix, Memphis and the Wolves should do in their final games. We're not going to catch Dallas or Golden State, but I think you'll quickly see that the other three teams are in a close race.

I just looked at their schedules and I don't see them struggling to play .500 ball I think that's more wishful thinking than anything. Even if they play.500ish ball and go say 11-10 we would have to go 16-5 and I don't think we win more than 14 at most the rest of the way

Yeah, it's gonna be tough, because I agree that I don't see the Wolves winning more than 14 games either. But I don't see my projections as wishful thinking, because I'm using exactly the same model for all three teams. It's just that their schedules are much more difficult than ours. It's going to be up to Phoenix and Memphis to fold down the stretch. If Phoenix can play .500 ball the rest of the way, they deserve to make the playoffs. They have 14 road games and only 7 home games, and included are tough games against the Spurs, Memphis, Dallas, Portland, Golden State, us at home, and the Clippers twice. And most of the East teams they are playing are hot right now (Toronto 8-2, Washington 7-3, Nets 6-4). Hats off to them if they can survive what they have left.

The problem is even if one team does fold down the stretch that doesn't do anything for us because we have to jump 2 teams and I think it's highly unlikely 2 teams conveniently fold for us down the stretch

I agree, all day...passing two teams with so few games left is a big challenge.