LST's playoff projection model

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Physical frontcourt of OKC? Am I missing something? Love/Pek bully THEM!

[thedoper]

Physical frontcourt of OKC? Am I missing something? Love/Pek bully THEM!

OKC is more chippy than typically physical. In that sense Ibaka plays very physical. He will chip away at Love and Love won't get the calls on those types of plays that he gets in the regular season. That is my point. Plus Adams is starting to give them a new identity. I think part of our front court success is the calls we get, if that disappears we have nothing on OKC.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Love/Pek are usually a good bet to drop 20-30 points each against OKC. Most of that is because they always get position and are way more effective on the glass than them. Not sure why this is the area of focus when it's consistently been a huge strength in the past against the Thunder. Love/Pek don't rely on free throws. They rely on getting position, being stronger than their defender, cleaning up perimeter shots and getting dimes from Ricky. Hell, Pek doesn't get half the calls he deserves during the regular season and he's still a beast lol. I'd be more focused on Rubio vs Westbrook and Brewer/Martin vs Durant.

[thedoper]

In 6 games played against them in the last 3 years Love has had 58 FTA's, Pek has had 46 in 8 games. Plus they are not quite near 30 pts each against OKC closer to 20 if you average them both. A quarter to a third of of their points will be from the line just from their averages, it is significant. I just think that the playoff would be a different animal for this team. Love is 3rd in the league in FTAs, that wouldn't happen in his first playoff run. I think on paper it makes sense, but the reality of the playoffs would be much different and particularly frustrating once we saw what the refs would allow Ibaka to get away with when guarding Love.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Terrible night for the Wolves. and a terrible night for the model as Dallas, Memphis and Minnesota all lost games they should have won. Phoenix was lucky to have a night off, and moves back into a 3-way tie with Memphis still winning the tiebreaker. Wolves remain in the dreaded Kahn 14th spot

6. GS 52
7. Dallas 49
8. Griz 45
9. Wolves 45
10.Suns 45

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

The model's broken, as Phoenix beats OkC for the first time in 14 games...everything is upside down.

Phoenix moves back into the driver's seat for the 8th spot with 46 wins, Memphis and the Wolves each behind with 45 .

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

What the fuck.

[Lipoli390]

It's time to start pulling for Memphis to avoid the nightmare scenario of being the 14th lottery team, in which case our first round pick goes to the Suns. Thank you Mr. Kahn !!

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

You all know how there was the "Suck for Luck" tanking slogan for Andrew Luck a couple years ago, and this year there's the "Be Sorry for Jabari" slogan for Jabari Parker... If we slip up again and lose even more ground in the playoff hunt... What rhymes with Stauskas... Hmmm...

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Two changes have the Wolves now 2 games behind Memphis. First, the Griz won a game in Chicago they were supposed to lose. And second, I reevaluated the model and determined the Wolves are more likely to lose in Charlotte. So the updated projection is:

6. Golden State 52
7. Dallas 49
8. Memphis 46 (owns tiebreaker over Suns by virtue of head to head)
9. Phoenix 46
10.Wolves 44

Two pieces of good news here: We're still in it, but if we don't make it, at least the model projects us to keep our draft pick.