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Re: What's our biggest problem?
Posted: Fri Apr 28, 2023 9:15 am
by thedoper
I voted player fit, I dont think that is the front office though. They planned this as a transition year imo. Gobert was brought in because we needed a center that could do what KAT couldnt (defend and rebound). That deficiency was something everyone who followed the Wolves wanted addressed, which is why there was general consensus around philosophically moving KAT to the 4. The problem is KAT is not a 4, cant move like one, is a worse offensive threat from that position, still cant defend, and will be making 40 mil. Trade his money for assets at other positions for a better positional fit.
Re: What's our biggest problem?
Posted: Fri Apr 28, 2023 9:34 am
by AbeVigodaLive
I still don't understand the "Move Towns to the 4" angle... even though I know it's been a popular notion for awhile.
His value was largely tied to the unique problems he caused as a 5.
Was he the right type of 5 for great team success? Maybe not. But at least he offered SOME advantage for the Timberwolves.
Re: What's our biggest problem?t
Posted: Fri Apr 28, 2023 4:08 pm
by thedoper
AbeVigodaLive wrote: ↑Fri Apr 28, 2023 9:34 am
I still don't understand the "Move Towns to the 4" angle... even though I know it's been a popular notion for awhile.
His value was largely tied to the unique problems he caused as a 5.
Was he the right type of 5 for great team success? Maybe not. But at least he offered SOME advantage for the Timberwolves.
I agree that he’s not a 4, but you are what you defend or who defends you. Kat cant defend anyone, and teams seem content to put anyone on KAT with the hope he will foul or make a poor decision. We just dont get those strategic advantages that we theorize will exist with KAT. He definitely has given us an offensive boost in multiple games, but his D has never given us a consistent advantage.
Re: What's our biggest problem?
Posted: Fri Apr 28, 2023 5:42 pm
by Leado01
I voted "other."
We had the talent to be a 50-55 game winner this year. We didn't get off to the best start due to extremely shortened pre-season and then we lost KAT.
I'm reserving the right to change that vote mid-season next year as I really don't believe we can get the spacing we need with Gobert and KAT unless KAT starts threatening 3's from the 3/4 hash.
I believe our identity is length, speed, and athleticism, and our two highest paid players only have length. One of them can likely stay, but there is a part of me that sees a lot of very good teams without a traditional center!
Re: What's our biggest problem?
Posted: Fri Apr 28, 2023 8:08 pm
by Q-is-here
thedoper wrote: ↑Fri Apr 28, 2023 9:15 am
I voted player fit, I dont think that is the front office though. They planned this as a transition year imo. Gobert was brought in because we needed a center that could do what KAT couldnt (defend and rebound). That deficiency was something everyone who followed the Wolves wanted addressed, which is why there was general consensus around philosophically moving KAT to the 4. The problem is KAT is not a 4, cant move like one, is a worse offensive threat from that position, still cant defend, and will be making 40 mil.
Trade his money for assets at other positions for a better positional fit.
....but one could argue that Gobert is a poor fit on offense with Ant, so you could make an argument that KAT should be traded for defensive reasons and Gobert for offensive reasons.
I listened to the Dane Moore podcast with a couple of the Wolves beat writers that they did after they lost the series and all three of these guys came to the conclusion that the sooner the front office's sole focus becomes finding players that fit with Ant, the better.
I'm on the fence. I don't know what the market is for Gobert and KAT and I don't want us trading them for just a bunch of picks, expiring contracts, and piece parts. They need to get another piece or two that are known quantities and fit with Ant.
Re: What's our biggest problem?
Posted: Fri Apr 28, 2023 9:26 pm
by thedoper
Q-is-here wrote: ↑Fri Apr 28, 2023 8:08 pm
thedoper wrote: ↑Fri Apr 28, 2023 9:15 am
I voted player fit, I dont think that is the front office though. They planned this as a transition year imo. Gobert was brought in because we needed a center that could do what KAT couldnt (defend and rebound). That deficiency was something everyone who followed the Wolves wanted addressed, which is why there was general consensus around philosophically moving KAT to the 4. The problem is KAT is not a 4, cant move like one, is a worse offensive threat from that position, still cant defend, and will be making 40 mil.
Trade his money for assets at other positions for a better positional fit.
....but one could argue that Gobert is a poor fit on offense with Ant, so you could make an argument that KAT should be traded for defensive reasons and Gobert for offensive reasons.
I listened to the Dane Moore podcast with a couple of the Wolves beat writers that they did after they lost the series and all three of these guys came to the conclusion that the sooner the front office's sole focus becomes finding players that fit with Ant, the better.
I'm on the fence. I don't know what the market is for Gobert and KAT and I don't want us trading them for just a bunch of picks, expiring contracts, and piece parts. They need to get another piece or two that are known quantities and fit with Ant.
You could make that argument about Gobert, but I wouldnt. Gobert sets great screens for Ant and cleans up his missed layups. I think their chemistry will continue to improve, but he isnt taking away anything from Ant’s offensive game. Ant made huge strides this year with Gobert as the primary big, and I feel Ant has a lot of room for further improvement. In a more general sense, think I am philosophically for building a strong defensive team because I feel Jaden and Ant have further offensive potential to unlock and I feel that bucket getters are more easily acquired then players that affect both sides of the ball. KAT is just that, and this year he wasnt even that good of a bucket getter, playoff bedwetting aside.
Re: What's our biggest problem?
Posted: Sat Apr 29, 2023 4:28 am
by SameOldNudityDrew
Hey guys, good discussion. Thanks.
I voted "player mentality/personality/team culture."
At the end of the day, I think too many of our most talented players over the years just didn't have the kind of mentality/personality/leadership to build a competitive, winning culture. KG had it. Ant seems to have it. But in the years between KG and Ant, the only star-level player we had that had the right mindset was Jimmy. There were guys like Brewer, PatBev, and Vando who also had high motors and competitive drives, but they didn't have the talent to be real leaders or even to develop the kind of "refuse to lose" mentality that winning teams need.
Love was too selfish, too sensitive, too whiny.
Wiggins was just too non-communicative and vacant--a non-personality who can work as a 3rd or 4th wheel alongside alpha-personalities like Draymond and Steph, but could never have led a team.
LaVine came close to having the right mindset, but he wasn't much of a communicator and his talent wasn't (and still isn't) quite there defensively, and he's just a bit too stylish and not quite gritty enough for me.
KAT, like Love, just seems too too whiny (although he did get better at that this year), just not the kind of guy who really leads. He seems to feel the need to impress others, so he's always trying to say the right things off the court or forcing things on the court, and when he doesn't get results on the floor, he withdraws, which helps explain why he disappears from games despite his immense talent. I think his alternating lack of discipline and passivity on the court reflects a kind of insecurity. I say that with more sympathy than criticism, but he's just not a great leader.
DLO? Don't even get me started. Dude just wants to look cool.
Rudy
Rudy's interesting because I think he clearly wants to win and tries hard all the time despite his (maddening) limitations, specifically his terrible hands, lack of touch, and awkward physicality. So in terms of his effort and drive on the court, I actually really like his mentality. At the same time, it's pretty clear he's not a guy people look to as a leader. I honestly wonder how much of that might be because of his combination of eagerness and awkwardness. He reminds me of the kid in class who gets socially isolated because his classmates think a kid that awkward should shut up and know his place. And yet, the dude gets paid a LOT of money because of his defense. Even if he hadn't dropped off this year, he's paid like a superstar, but has none of the kind of athleticism or skill we associate with superstars. So I can see guys resenting him because they think of him as a guy who is paid for something (his size) that he didn't really have to work to earn.
There was a moment this year when he laid up a soft dunk and Nate Knight gave him the thumbs down and it seemed like kind of a funny thing at the time, but I think it really reflects a problem, and it's one that is reflected in the way we evaluate him as well. At the end of the day, the value of a player should come down to what they do that leads to wins. Awkward or athletic, it shouldn't matter. But in our minds, we DO value athleticism and looking cool over awkwardness. Nate Knight is a super athletic dude. But he is basically unplayable in the playoffs. We shouldn't pay him much as a result. Rudy is awkward as hell. We cringe when he shoots free throws. We feel embarrassment when he can't finish a lob because of his bad hands because as fans (and as teammates) we think of HIM as a reflection of US. WE don't want to look awkward. So we judge him negatively for it. And to some degree, it IS annoying a dude that big lacks the kind of small-area dexterity many people have. But that's not really his fault.
And here's the thing, despite the awkwardness, Rudy is WAY more valuable than Nate Knight in terms of actual winning. Part of that is his size, part is his effort, but it's undeniable that he is an effective basketball player (the fit with KAT is another issue, but I don't think it's as big as this overall mentality issue, and (see below) I think part of the fit problem is rooted in a mentality problem). Rudy's defense and his efficient scoring are absolutely valuable.
So I think the root of the whatever culture problem there is with Rudy is based on a discrepancy between objective basketball value and subjective social value. He'll probably never get over that to be a leader, but I do think (as unfair as it is), he needs to recognize that reality a bit more and fade into the background a bit more socially so he draws less ire. He should obviously keep communicating to encourage guys, and he has to keep communicating on defense because that's so crucial, but he also needs to be aware guys probably resent him when he's telling them to do this or that (which all good players need to do) so that he communicates as supportively as possible to avoid alienating other players.
The real responsibility though, should fall on the rest of the team (and, frankly, us) to just get over the fact that Rudy is awkward. That's just who he is and he can't control it. Like a classroom with a slightly weird kid, as long as he's with us, we need to embrace him and not ostracize him. If we do, I really like his competitive mentality as a good fit with a winning team. If we don't, this could continue to be an obstacle for team culture that I'm worried about.
Ant
Ant is the key to everything. In some ways, he's the opposite of Rudy and KAT. He's totally athletic and cool, unlike Rudy. And he's totally comfortable, confident, and consistently competitive, unlike KAT (and K.Love). I LOVE how Ant's developed a defensive intensity in particular. I think it clearly shows the dude wants to win. Where Wiggins had no personality, Ant is ALL personality. There are still some questions with his approach. I do think he can learn to trust his teammates more, especially now that he can expect to draw so much defensive attention. He has shown a growing willingness to pass, which is a big improvement, but there's still a bit too much tunnel-vision there at times offensively. I think that will come. It seems at least partly about just learning to be a smarter player rather than simply being selfish. But Ant has what KG had and Jimmy still has--just an intense-ass competitive drive. I even like that he seems to have a bit of a lighter personality than those two--who could overdo the intensity at times. But clearly, I think there's been no star-level talented player on this team since KG (and Jimmy) with anywhere NEAR the kind of winning mentality/personality we need until Ant. And for all his faults (and there are still faults), I'm so glad we've got him.
Because of the respect he has earned through his talent and his approach to the game, he clearly has the power right now to change the culture of this team. Step 1 should be for him to be a social leader on the team in terms of integrating Rudy. Even if we ultimately trade Rudy, we need his value to be as high as possible. And if we don't, we need the team to integrate him. By openly doing that himself, Ant can set the expectation for that for others. Step 2 should be to just continue to set this kind of a tone defensively next year in the regular season. Everybody else on team should see how hard he's working on that, and it'll be completely infectious given the social pull he's gotten himself.
How might the personality/mentality/culture issue affect roster decisions?
In the other thread on the three bigs, I voted to keep KAT and Rudy. But in the past I have called for trading KAT, and I (only half jokingly) suggested trading the rest of the team and keeping Jimmy during that fiasco years ago. Honestly, watching Jimmy this year, I wish I hadn't been half joking! Seriously, if you want to know what I want, it's a coach like Spo and a player like Jimmy (he was one of my favorites before we traded for him and what happened with us really broke my heart, honestly). I would be open to trading KAT though, not specifically because of the fit with Rudy issue, but because it could help clear his personality off the team and help us establish the kind of winning mentality we need that I think Ant can set. I'd much rather see KAT transformed by Ant to become more like him. I do think we saw less whining and more maturity from him this year, so it's possible. With Rudy, again, I don't think it's his fault as much as others' but I'd be open to trading him too if we didn't think we could make the culture work with him. Ironically, that might be an indictment on Ant's leadership, because I think to be a good leader, Ant needs to step up and try to integrate Rudy to the team (I didn't see the evidence of "liking" worst trade posts, but that's not a good sign). But honestly, I'm so sick of losing and I associate that so much with the mentality and personality of the best players we've had over the years, that I'd be happy to clear house and just build around the one star we have had since Jimmy and KG who actually has the kind of personality I think it takes to win.
The relationship between mentality and fit
By the way, on the fit issue, part of me really thinks that some of it may be related to mentality. I don't think there's an inherent reason why these guys can't fit well together IF THEY WERE WILLING TO FIND WAYS TO DO SO. But I did see signs of a lack of trust and communication this year that make it look like they're not completely willing to fit with each other. At the end of the day, KAT's outside shooting SHOULD make the two-big thing compatible. Skillwise, I think we could do it. The question for me is whether or not the guys are really willing to trust each other to make it work.
Re: What's our biggest problem?
Posted: Sat Apr 29, 2023 9:47 am
by Q-is-here
Drew, it doesn't matter how much these guys may bond off the court and develop trust. It simply won't matter if Ant doesn't have "micro-trust" in Gobert's ability to catch a pass and finish. He will stop passing him the ball, just like Mitchell did in Utah. And that, in turn, will eventually erode overall trust.
KAT kind of works with Ant on offense because KAT is more of a pick and pop player. Even though his screens are horrible, at least he has a lot of gravitational pull out of the paint. We also saw how KAT can face-up smaller players and still score (against Gordon). He should just dump his post game entirely.
My hope with KAT is that as Ant and Jaden ascend, the spotlight and pressure on him diminish a bit and we aren't so angst-ridden with all his flaws because he will no longer be the most important player on the roster.
Re: What's our biggest problem?
Posted: Sat Apr 29, 2023 10:37 am
by Lipoli390
Q-is-here wrote: ↑Sat Apr 29, 2023 9:47 am
Drew, it doesn't matter how much these guys may bond off the court and develop trust. It simply won't matter if Ant doesn't have "micro-trust" in Gobert's ability to catch a pass and finish. He will stop passing him the ball, just like Mitchell did in Utah. And that, in turn, will eventually erode overall trust.
KAT kind of works with Ant on offense because KAT is more of a pick and pop player. Even though his screens are horrible, at least he has a lot of gravitational pull out of the paint. We also saw how KAT can face-up smaller players and still score (against Gordon). He should just dump his post game entirely.
My hope with KAT is that as Ant and Jaden ascend, the spotlight and pressure on him diminish a bit and we aren't so angst-ridden with all his flaws because he will no longer be the most important player on the roster.
I agree, Q. This is Ant’s team. Ant can optimize his offensive production playing with KAT, but he can’t playing with Rudy. I watch the replay of game 4. It was a great win. Both Rudy and Ant played well. However, watching for a second time I was able to focus on little things. One thing that jumped out at me was Rudy’s constant presence in the lane and how he diminished space for Ant’s dribble-drive game. Another play that stood out was when Ant made a perfect pass right into Rudy’s hands next to the basket. Rudy actually caught the ball cleanly, so his bad hands weren’t the issue. But when Rudy went to lay the ball in, his shot was cleanly rejected from the front - no foul and a change on possession. We’ve seen that happen over and over against this season - getting rejected at the rim without drawing a foul.
Rudy’s clogging presence in the lane, bad hands and inability to overpower defenders at the rim has to be a major frustration for Ant and others on the team. As we know, it was a big frustration for DLO and I suspect it was an ongoing frustration for others, including Slo Mo who eventually blew up in that infamous team huddle a couple weeks ago.
This team’s biggest problem is fit and Rudy is at the heart of that problem. Rudy doesn’t fit well with Edwards or KAT offensively because he diminishes KAT’s and Ant’s dribble-drive game, which is the #1 offensive attribute of both. He doesn’t fit well defensively with KAT because KAT has to play PF, which magnifies his defensive weaknesses. The Gobert trade was horrible. Rudy’s not horrible, but he’s not a good fit and he’s not conducive to the long-term aspirations of this franchise to build a championship contender around Ant and Edwards. KAT can fit well with those two; Rudy cannot.
Regarding KAT’s defense, I’ll start out by pointing out that Rudy’s defensive rating this season was the same as KAT’s last season. And note that Ant and Jaden weren’t nearly as good last season as they were this season. Overall, the team’s defensive rating only went from 13th to 10th while its offensive rating dropped from 8th to 23rd. Meanwhile, the team’s rebound average was down and blocks per game average was down. And of course, the Wolves record was 7 games worse this season with Gobert as its starting Center than last season with KAT starting at center. And again, Ant and Jaden were much better this season than last.
Fit is the problem and the Gobert deal is the main reason. It’s time to move on from Rudy in an effort to get the parts back in sync. I’ve quoted McHale before and I’ll do it again here: “It’s not the five best players; it’s the five players who play best together.” We were closer last season than this season to meeting McHale’s test for success. We need to act sooner rather than later to get this franchise back on track. There’s not reason to panic out act rashly. We have a potential franchise player in Edwards and a tremendously talented side-kick for Ant in Jaden McDaniels. I think KAT fits well with those two. His ability to spread the floor opens driving lanes for Ant and ultimately for Jaden whose dribble drive game is developing nicely. He’s an elite three-point shooter on a team that sorely lacks three-point shooting in a League that requires three-point shooting.
We shouldn’t overemphasize KAT’s defensive weaknesses. First of all, as I noted, KAT’s defensive rating last season was the same as Gobert’s this season. More importantly, Ant’s defensive development has him on track to becoming an elite defender if he isn’t already. Jaden’s is an elite defender. Conley is a very good defender and hopefully the Wolves will find a young understudy to take over for Conley eventually at the PG position and provide a similar defensive presence at that position. In other words, this team doesn’t need to worry a lot about defense at the center position.
If you haven’t seen it, I suggest you watch the video discussion between KG and Paul Pierce regarding the Wolves. Paul Pierce nails it as he talks about the stupidity of the Wolves front office and ownership over the years, including the current front office, as they fail to understand how you build around your stars. Trading the farm for the 30 year old Gobert to pair with the 20 year old Ant and 21 year old McDaniels was dumb based on the age differential alone. But it was also dump on so many other levels as we’ve seen this past season. Thanks to Rosas, this franchise is still positioned to fix things because they have Ant, Jaden and KAT. And thanks to Connelly, they have Slo Mo. Now it’s up to the front office to rectify their Gobert blunder and get things back on track. Let’s hoe they have to good sense and humility to do what’s necessary. And let’s hope they don’t panic and go down the path some fans are pushing for - namely trading KAT before he’s had a chance to gel with the vastly improved Ant and Jaden.