Minnesota Sports Forum

Lots of good points, but I am still running it back. With all the adverse circumstances that derailed the season, there were absolutely signs this team has the potential to be really good. So run it back with some tweaks and see what they can do. If it doesn't start off with a bang, you can entertain restructuring the roster at the trade deadline. But at least you'll have a chance of enjoying the fruits of the seeds planted this season. You can then make decisions next off-season on how to deal with the financial issues. Maybe it will be so good that a year of luxury tax is acceptable. Or at least you will know which of the core pieces you want to keep, and which you can replace with something cheaper.

We finally have something pretty damn promising, and so many of you want change directions because you are fearful of what may come in 2024-25. Lets have some continuity going into next season and see what this team can do!


BTW - no way am I willing to lay out 12mil of our precious cap space to retain Naz. He can be replaced for something much cheaper.

60WinTim wrote: ↑Sat Jun 10, 2023 1:31 pm Lots of good points, but I am still running it back. With all the adverse circumstances that derailed the season, there were absolutely signs this team has the potential to be really good. So run it back with some tweaks and see what they can do. If it doesn't start off with a bang, you can entertain restructuring the roster at the trade deadline. But at least you'll have a chance of enjoying the fruits of the seeds planted this season. You can then make decisions next off-season on how to deal with the financial issues. Maybe it will be so good that a year of luxury tax is acceptable. Or at least you will know which of the core pieces you want to keep, and which you can replace with something cheaper.

We finally have something pretty damn promising, and so many of you want change directions because you are fearful of what may come in 2024-25. Lets have some continuity going into next season and see what this team can do!


BTW - no way am I willing to lay out 12mil of our precious cap space to retain Naz. He can be replaced for something much cheaper.

Tim, you're exactly where I am on this issue. I also acknowledge the cap challenges smart posters here point out that TC is going to face in 2024-5 (although I do provide a blueprint in the salary cap thread for how he can do it...I admit it's a stretch though), but I think we showed way too much promise at the end of the season when everyone was healthy to bail now. But you're right...I don't see any way that we can make things work in 2024-5 if we sign Naz long term this summer. However, I just don't see it as that much of a loss, and perhaps even a blessing. Naz seems to be a terrific guy and teammate, and his ability to score in bunches was helpful last season. But he has been an on/off disaster each of the past three years, with a negative on/off ranging from -6.5 to -7.8 (and actually getting worse each year). Naz's propensity to get outscored comes from two sources...his poor defense, and the lack of ball movement when he is on the court. Naz is a great (and even improving) one-on-one player, but his style of play does not get others involved on offense. And as a result, surprisingly his on/off offensive numbers are even worse than his defensive numbers the past three years. As much as I have enjoyed having Naz on the roster, not only can we not afford him, letting him go will actually be a great example of addition by subtraction. Luke Garza has his flaws to be sure, but he is a much more affordable option at backup center.

Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 10, 2023 1:04 pm

Phenom wrote: ↑Sat Jun 10, 2023 12:44 pm Whether or not the braintrust decides to run it back, they and everyone else knows they can't run it back anymore after that. The Dane Moore pod about trading for Scoot is a great listen and lays it all out. So what is the actual upside for running it back? The possibility of improved trade value for KAT or maybe Gobert. So now we weigh an improved trade value with KAT against his salary increasing by 15 or so million and then trading him. And that is best case scenario. What if KAT has another year like this and/or no shows in the playoffs?

As far as Naz, I still believe that resigning him has nothing to do with KAT and Rudy since one of them is not going to be in the long term plans anymore. He will be replacing one of them.

Trading KAT for a high level rookie does make some sense as it will better stagger high dollar contracts. If someone like Scoot hits then he gets paid when. Gobert comes off the books and possibly resigns at a lower number.

I saw a report yesterday, I think from Eric Pincus, that many execs believe KAT will be traded soon and I think that is accurate and probably the best option for the organization.

Phenom - I think you’ve crystallized the analysis perfectly. We can’t realistically “run it back” with both KAT and Rudy beyond next season. And I just don’t see a meaningful net benefit (or perhaps any net benefit) to running it back with both bigs for only one more season.

My only very small caveat to your post is that keeping both KAT and Rudy for one more season would impede the team’s ability to re-sign NAW and Naz. Naz will cost at least $12 million next season and probably $15 million or more. NAW will cost at least $5 million. Signing Naz at a bargain $12M and NAW at $5 million would put the Wolves payroll at $159,143,512 for 12 players. That would leave the Wolves about $3 million under the luxury tax threshold with two roster slots to fill. All vet minimum contracts had a $1.7 million value for cap purposes. That number is likely to go up, but even if it doesn’t, signing two vets would likely put the Wolves slightly over the luxury tax threshold. The Wolves could sign one rookie (their 2nd-round pick) and one vet to make it work. So it’s doable, but barely. Note we would not be able to use any of our MLE or BAE.

Again, the far more important point is the one you, I and others including Dane Moore have raised - i.e., this team can’t realistically run it back with both bigs for more than one season. It’s a reality this organization should confront sooner rather than later. And that reality means trading KAT or Rudy this summer.

It will certainly be difficult to keep both Naz and NAW for one more year if the plan is to move on from KAT or Rudy in one year but I am assuming Taurean will not be retained. Also I am trying to remember but it used to be that vet minimum salaries were subsidized by the league for 50% but I don't remember if that also meant that only the half salary counted toward the cap. It was a way of guaranteeing veteran players had jobs instead of teams filling up on lower waged rookies.

Here are some interesting dates that might tell us a bit more...

6/22 - The Draft. Who do the Wolves take in the 2nd round, and do we think he has a chance to make the active roster, which would be a cheap roster spot. If a KAT trade is coming, this would be the time...

6/28 - Prince's contract becomes guaranteed. If the Wolves want his money to use elsewhere, then he needs to be waived by this date.

6/29 - Knight's contract becomes partially guaranteed. If they want the money and the roster spot, then bye-bye Nate.

6/29 - 2-way QO's can be made to Garza and Ryan. Might give us a clue as to whether either might be retained.

6/30 - JMac's contract becomes guaranteed. I gotta think backup PG is on the Wolves shopping list. And with Moore on the roster with guaranteed $s, I'm not sure JMac sticks.

6/30 at 5pm CDT - Free agency negotiations can begin. The Wolves were very quick to agree with Slo-Mo last year. I wouldn't be surprised if they are quick again this year.

So, what position do you put a higher priority on? Backup PG? Or a Naz replacement?

Backup PG. I don't know how many more chances we'll get to add a PG who could conceivably start there after next season. If they prioritize a Naz replacement, then that means they're just about ready to turn Ant into poor man's Luka.

60WinTim wrote: ↑Sat Jun 10, 2023 8:35 pm Here are some interesting dates that might tell us a bit more...

6/22 - The Draft. Who do the Wolves take in the 2nd round, and do we think he has a chance to make the active roster, which would be a cheap roster spot. If a KAT trade is coming, this would be the time...

6/28 - Prince's contract becomes guaranteed. If the Wolves want his money to use elsewhere, then he needs to be waived by this date.

6/29 - Knight's contract becomes partially guaranteed. If they want the money and the roster spot, then bye-bye Nate.

6/29 - 2-way QO's can be made to Garza and Ryan. Might give us a clue as to whether either might be retained.

6/30 - JMac's contract becomes guaranteed. I gotta think backup PG is on the Wolves shopping list. And with Moore on the roster with guaranteed $s, I'm not sure JMac sticks.

6/30 at 5pm CDT - Free agency negotiations can begin. The Wolves were very quick to agree with Slo-Mo last year. I wouldn't be surprised if they are quick again this year.

So, what position do you put a higher priority on? Backup PG? Or a Naz replacement?

Just to add to this Kat can’t be traded until June 29th so after the draft. So if the wolves do have a trade in place for a pick that player will not be playing in the summer league for the wolves so that sort of sucks

This is what I will say if it came to just basketball reasons I would love to run it back with some small tweaks. Wolves were leading in 3 of 5 games in the 4th against the NBA champs missing 2 sometimes 3 key rotation pieces. Now the wolves at the end of the day lost in 5 but I would love to see the wolves run it back from a basketball perspective.

Now the new CBA punished the wolves so badly, in my opinion that means Kat must be traded this offseason. That is not a knock on Kat, I like the player Kat is and I do appreciate his loyalty to a franchise that is dogshit. However with the new CBA you can pretty much have 2 max players and 1 highly played player. Ant will fill one max player, Mcdaniels will fill the highly paid player so the choice is between Kat or Rudy for the 2nd max player going into 24-25. The reason I trade Kat is he can get more back in a trade, his contract becomes more difficult to trade next year, Kat potentially could get a player of his caliber on a rookie scale back, I think there is big risk Kat value plummets with this CBA because Kat can’t prove he can be a number 2 on a title team (he can no longer be traded to be a number 3 like in the old CBA), finally Rudy contract is 3 years shorter than Kat and cheaper. Keeping Rudy allows the wolves to have max cap space in offseason going into the 26-27 season. Ant and Jaden will be in their mid 20s so it allows the wolves to reset that year if need be.

At the end of the day, I don’t hate this roster at all. New CBA really punished the wolves for Kat loyalty, what sucks. The new CBA also will punish the wolves again badly if Ant makes all nba this year what is so stupid again. Wolves are a small market team that got fucked for going for it and now can’t retain their players even though 3 of their top 4 guys are homegrown.

My wish list for the summer
1. Sign Ant to a 5 year max with no player option
2. Sign Mcdaniels to a 5 year deal, would love a deal like 5/100 we’ll see if that is possible.
3. Trade Kat because of the new CBA and it’s easier to trade Kat this year
4. Bring Naz back at no more than 12 a year (lip is convinced he will get more but I don’t think teams are dying for a below average defensive and rebounding backup center who is very good at offense in this new CBA)
5. Save money on a Prince trade for a new backup PG (I was wrong about a Pritchard trade)
6. Bring Naw back
7. Retain Garza to a 2 way deal

Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 10, 2023 12:38 pm

Coolbreeze44 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 10, 2023 12:25 pm I can't see anybody willing to take on Rudy's contract. That coupled with TC admitting his blunder makes a Gobert trade seem highly unlikely. I think KAT will be traded this summer and hopefully that means we can retain NAZ. Now, let's get a bidding war going for KAT and maximize the return.

Cool - I think trading KAT rather than Rudy would be the wrong move, but I you’re right that TC won’t trade Rudy this summer. Therefore, I have to agree that it’s time to get the KAT bidding war started.

,

I don't see the logic here. If TC won't trade Rudy, why would he trade KAT. That would be more damning admitting that he wasn't able to look two years into the future with our salary structure.

This Rudy trade (worst ever in sports) just made zero sense, and it is alarming that the ownership went along with it. I would give Rudy away for expirings at this point. It isn't that difficult to find defenders, at least not compared to top offensive players of which KAT is one. Maybe we should entertain trading McDaniels. I think they are about to over pay him for what he gives us. How much of a drop off would we have going to NAW. If we can sign NAW for 5-6 mil versus McD for 20+, I think I might explore that as well. While I like McD a lot, I still think we are overvaluing him.

kekgeek wrote: ↑Sat Jun 10, 2023 9:34 pm

60WinTim wrote: ↑Sat Jun 10, 2023 8:35 pm Here are some interesting dates that might tell us a bit more...

6/22 - The Draft. Who do the Wolves take in the 2nd round, and do we think he has a chance to make the active roster, which would be a cheap roster spot. If a KAT trade is coming, this would be the time...

6/28 - Prince's contract becomes guaranteed. If the Wolves want his money to use elsewhere, then he needs to be waived by this date.

6/29 - Knight's contract becomes partially guaranteed. If they want the money and the roster spot, then bye-bye Nate.

6/29 - 2-way QO's can be made to Garza and Ryan. Might give us a clue as to whether either might be retained.

6/30 - JMac's contract becomes guaranteed. I gotta think backup PG is on the Wolves shopping list. And with Moore on the roster with guaranteed $s, I'm not sure JMac sticks.

6/30 at 5pm CDT - Free agency negotiations can begin. The Wolves were very quick to agree with Slo-Mo last year. I wouldn't be surprised if they are quick again this year.

So, what position do you put a higher priority on? Backup PG? Or a Naz replacement?

Just to add to this Kat can’t be traded until June 29th so after the draft. So if the wolves do have a trade in place for a pick that player will not be playing in the summer league for the wolves so that sort of sucks

I think unloading Prince would be huge mistake. After losing Bev, we need at least one guy with an attitude on this team.

mjs34 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 10, 2023 10:37 pm

Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 10, 2023 12:38 pm

Coolbreeze44 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 10, 2023 12:25 pm I can't see anybody willing to take on Rudy's contract. That coupled with TC admitting his blunder makes a Gobert trade seem highly unlikely. I think KAT will be traded this summer and hopefully that means we can retain NAZ. Now, let's get a bidding war going for KAT and maximize the return.

Cool - I think trading KAT rather than Rudy would be the wrong move, but I you’re right that TC won’t trade Rudy this summer. Therefore, I have to agree that it’s time to get the KAT bidding war started.

,

I don't see the logic here. If TC won't trade Rudy, why would he trade KAT. That would be more damning admitting that he wasn't able to look two years into the future with our salary structure.

This Rudy trade (worst ever in sports) just made zero sense, and it is alarming that the ownership went along with it. I would give Rudy away for expirings at this point. It isn't that difficult to find defenders, at least not compared to top offensive players of which KAT is one. Maybe we should entertain trading McDaniels. I think they are about to over pay him for what he gives us. How much of a drop off would we have going to NAW. If we can sign NAW for 5-6 mil versus McD for 20+, I think I might explore that as well. While I like McD a lot, I still think we are overvaluing him.

I agree with you, mjs. The Wolves absolutely should trade Rudy rather than KAT for all the reasons you identified in your post. There are certainly teams out there that would trade players on 1-year contracts and some picks for Rudy. I think we could get a lower first-round pick and a couple future 2nd-round picks for Rudy in addition to getting enough cap relief to avoid the second apron in 2024. That’s what the Wolves should do. What Connelly and his front office cohorts WILL do is another question. I’d like to believe the TC is smart enough to put his ego aside and move Rudy this summer. He can use the new CBA for cover if he’s worried about looking bad. And I hope he realizes that he’ll look even worse if he sticks with Rudy, trades KAT and ends up back in the lottery while KAT flourishes elsewhere.