Minnesota Sports Forum

Monster wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 8:41 am That’s a good find Lip I skimmed through the article. There are a couple things to consider looking at the numbers of this study.

This includes data on players going back to 1970. We all know there have been significant medical advances over the decades. There might be players in this study that were injured during a time when blowing out your knee ended your career. I would be more interested in the recovery rates in the past 10 years but the problem would likely be a small sample size.

Which brings us to the next point. The study covered about 50 years and they came up with less than 50 players and then removed a few to end up with even fewer. That’s not a large sample but it’s what we have because as the article points out it’s hard to find out what player injuries were over time since the league doesn’t have a database for that.

The article talks about various circumstances of why some players didn’t return to the NBA. Roster considerations, coaching changes etc etc. How many of these players were fringe guys before the injury and teams essentially moved on for one reason or another? Yes there was a control group but the article mentions there is some issues there too including a gap in experience between the study group and the control group.

Age. It looks like the average age of both groups was 28. I didn’t see any data that said someone does more poorly if they are younger or older etc. it seems likely someone older would struggle to return from this injury and a younger guy like Clark would have a much better chance of recovering physically. That’s not hard data but it makes sense right?

Here is and article that references the article Lip posted and mentions various more recent Achilles injuries.

https://amp.foxsports.com/stories/nba/a ... ba-players

Overall yes an Achilles injury is serious but like a I said before it doesn’t seem like it’s something that should be absolutely feared either. It’s been 3 months since his surgery the Wolves probably have some sort of idea of where he is in his recovery and my guess is they feel pretty good about it. Connelly has rolled the dice on a few guys that had injury concerns or were coming off injuries and a couple of those guys have ended up having good NBA careers to this point including Vanderbilt And MPJ.

Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 12:26 pm

Monster wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 8:41 am That’s a good find Lip I skimmed through the article. There are a couple things to consider looking at the numbers of this study.

This includes data on players going back to 1970. We all know there have been significant medical advances over the decades. There might be players in this study that were injured during a time when blowing out your knee ended your career. I would be more interested in the recovery rates in the past 10 years but the problem would likely be a small sample size.

Which brings us to the next point. The study covered about 50 years and they came up with less than 50 players and then removed a few to end up with even fewer. That’s not a large sample but it’s what we have because as the article points out it’s hard to find out what player injuries were over time since the league doesn’t have a database for that.

The article talks about various circumstances of why some players didn’t return to the NBA. Roster considerations, coaching changes etc etc. How many of these players were fringe guys before the injury and teams essentially moved on for one reason or another? Yes there was a control group but the article mentions there is some issues there too including a gap in experience between the study group and the control group.

Age. It looks like the average age of both groups was 28. I didn’t see any data that said someone does more poorly if they are younger or older etc. it seems likely someone older would struggle to return from this injury and a younger guy like Clark would have a much better chance of recovering physically. That’s not hard data but it makes sense right?

Here is and article that references the article Lip posted and mentions various more recent Achilles injuries.

https://amp.foxsports.com/stories/nba/a ... ba-players

Overall yes an Achilles injury is serious but like a I said before it doesn’t seem like it’s something that should be absolutely feared either. It’s been 3 months since his surgery the Wolves probably have some sort of idea of where he is in his recovery and my guess is they feel pretty good about it. Connelly has rolled the dice on a few guys that had injury concerns or were coming off injuries and a couple of those guys have ended up having good NBA careers to this point including Vanderbilt And MPJ.

I agree with your critique of the study I posted, Monster. And thanks for posting this other article.

No doubt TC rolled the dice on Clark. I don’t think TC has rolled the dice on anything like an Achilles tear before. So the Clark pick strikes me as a particularly big gamble. I’m sure TC consulted the Wolves medical staff. And I suspect the medical people told TC the things we can see in these articles. The bottom line of all these articles and studies is that Achilles tears are more problematic for NBA players than other common injuries, including ACL tears, and that the prognosis is uncertain but that Clark could come back strong. I’m sure the medical staffs of the 52 teams that picked ahead of us said the same thing, which is why all those teams passed on him even though he was probably widely regarded as a 1st-round talent.

TC took the risk. Not a terrible decision in my view, but not a decision I would have made. TC has been using the term “patience” a lot lately in describing his approach. That’s the perfect word to describe what the Wolves will need when it comes to Clark. Anyone who thinks Clark will be back playing competitive basketball before the end of the G-League or NBA season is kidding themselves in my view. I don’t expect him to compete in Summer League next year either. The question is whether he’ll be in camp to start the 2024-25 regular season and how long after that he’ll be getting significant G-League minutes. So I’m going to be patient and I know I’ll be pulling for Clark to make it back and have a great NBA career even if it’s ultimately with another team.

Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 5:09 pm I think picking or signing any player just three months after an Achilles tear is a gamble. It’s a gamble relative to other options. 52 teams ahead of us obviously decided it was too much of a gamble. You can say it’s a gamble worth taking; but I don’t think you can view it as other than a gamble. I suppose we could call any pick in the 2nd round, especially the bottom half, a gamble since the odds are heavily against any such pick becoming a good NBA player. What distinguishes the Clark pick from other 2nd round picks is that Clark may never be physically able to play basketball again and even if he does the athleticism and quickness the Wolves scouts saw on tape won’t be the athleticism and quickness they end up with.

TC make the pick in spite of the risk because of how good he believes Clark can be if he comes back and comes back with the same quickness/athleticism he had before the injury. So there’s a big potential payoff. That was the gamble. Not a gamble I would have made, but still a reasonable wager by TC that I’m fine with.

mrhockey89 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 10:43 pm Finally found you all.

Love the Jaylen Clark tape, especially his defense/playmaking. Seems like every steal he's literally "jumping" the play, and seems to have really good awareness of noticing when opponents stop paying attention to him. Also super active in shot blocking for a guard. He seems like he's just an energetic, smart, talented defender.

Monster wrote: ↑Thu Jun 29, 2023 3:12 am Ucla vs Arizona

https://youtu.be/bVu_reJlQ1k

Watched this game I’ll give more thoughts after I sleep on it. Lol

60WinTim wrote: ↑Thu Jun 29, 2023 7:01 am

mrhockey89 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 10:43 pm Finally found you all.

Love the Jaylen Clark tape, especially his defense/playmaking. Seems like every steal he's literally "jumping" the play, and seems to have really good awareness of noticing when opponents stop paying attention to him. Also super active in shot blocking for a guard. He seems like he's just an energetic, smart, talented defender.

How did I miss this?!?

Great to see you found us mrhockey! I just ran my "merge" routine so your new account is connected to all your old info.

Welcome back!

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Thu Jun 29, 2023 7:48 am

60WinTim wrote: ↑Thu Jun 29, 2023 7:01 am

mrhockey89 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 10:43 pm Finally found you all.

Love the Jaylen Clark tape, especially his defense/playmaking. Seems like every steal he's literally "jumping" the play, and seems to have really good awareness of noticing when opponents stop paying attention to him. Also super active in shot blocking for a guard. He seems like he's just an energetic, smart, talented defender.

How did I miss this?!?

Great to see you found us mrhockey! I just ran my "merge" routine so your new account is connected to all your old info.

Welcome back!

I missed it too! Welcome back Hockey! I think it was one pandemic and two wars ago that we last heard from you! Don't be a stranger.